Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7903; (P) 0.7922; (R1) 0.7943; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 0.7900 minor support will turn bias to the downside. Break of 0.7860 will target a retest on 0.7828 low. However, break of 0.7986 will argue that corrective pattern from 0.7828 is still extending with another rising leg already in progress.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low). Long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.57; (P) 156.79; (R1) 157.05; More...

USD/JPY's recovery lost momentum ahead of 157.75 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 154.33 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 158.85 key structural resistance will be an important medium term bullish sign. Next target will be 161.94 high. However, decisive break of 154.38 will turn bias to the downside for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Forex markets are trading in mixed fashion, with hesitant tone, as investors continue to digest the controversial US seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend. While geopolitical risk has clearly entered the equation, price action suggests the response is far from a textbook risk-off move.

There are visible safe-haven bids flowing into Dollar and Yen, both of which are outperforming. However, Swiss Franc is notably lagging, highlighting the uneven nature of defensive positioning. Also, that complexity is evident across asset classes. European equity markets are treading water rather than selling off sharply, supported in part by strong gains in defense stocks. US equity futures are also flat, while Treasury markets show little sign of meaningful inflows. The markets are not pricing systemic escalation risks.

The surge in Gold and Silver initially points to rising risk aversion. However, Copper has also jumped to fresh record highs, muddying the narrative. Strength across both precious and industrial metals suggests the move is likely not purely geopolitics-driven.

That metals backdrop helps explain the relative resilience in Aussie, which is finding some support despite broader Dollar strength. In contrast, Euro and Swiss Franc are clearly under pressure, partly reflecting spillover from Sterling’s strength following strong UK borrowing data.

Overall, Dollar sits at the top of the FX performance table so far today, followed by Yen and Sterling. Loonie is the weakest, trailed by Swiss Franc and Euro, while Aussie and Kiwi trade in the middle.

For now, markets appear content to wait for clarity, hoping geopolitical tensions fade and attention returns to data and policy fundamentals.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.35%. DAX is up 0.71%. CAC is up 0.04%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.018 at 4.521. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.013 at 2.890. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 2.97%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.03%. China Shanghai SSE rose 1.38%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.52%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.047 to 2.120.

EUR/GBP slides, GBP/CHF jumps; strong UK borrowing data fuels Sterling strength

Sterling is rallying sharply today as UK domestic data challenge expectations of a smooth cooling in demand. The catalyst appears to be November consumer credit data from the BoE, which showed borrowing rose by GBP 2.08B, the largest monthly increase in two years and stronger than any economist forecast.

Annual growth in consumer credit also accelerated to 8.1%, from 7.5% previously. Credit card borrowing surged 12.1%, while other consumer credit expanded 6.3%, highlighting robust appetite for spending rather than precautionary retrenchment, even before the government's Autumn Budget.

Elevated borrowing, especially via credit cards, points to consumer demand holding up more firmly than anticipated, keeping services inflation under upward pressure — the very area where the BoE has struggled to secure sustained disinflation progress.

That backdrop strengthens the case for caution at the February policy meeting. The data give hawkish members of the Monetary Policy Committee justification to push for a hold, at least until post-holiday spending data confirms whether momentum is truly fading.

Technically, Sterling strength is driving EUR/GBP lower, with downside momentum accelerating toward the 0.8618–0.8631 support zone (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618). A clean break there would signal that the rebound from the 2024 low at 0.8221 has already run its course as a corrective move, shifting the near-term outlook decisively bearish.

In GBP/CHF, today’s bounce argues that support near the 55-day EMA and above 1.0594 has held decisively. That keeps the rebound from 1.0362 alive, with a retest of 1.0759 likely soon. Sustained break higher would target 38.2% retracement of 1.1675 to 1.0362 at 1.0864, even still as a corrective move.

BoJ’s Ueda sees durable wage-price cycle, signals scope for further hikes

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed the tightening bias today, adding wages and prices are “highly likely to rise together moderately.” In a speech he said adjusting the degree of monetary support would help place the economy on a path toward sustained growth.

Ueda added that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic activity and inflation evolve in line with its forecasts. Also, Japan’s economy maintained a moderate recovery last year despite pressure on corporate profits from higher U.S. tariffs.

Speaking at the same banking event, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan is at a critical stage of shifting toward a growth-driven economy after decades of deflation.

Japan PMI manufacturing stabilizes at 50.0, weak Yen lifts inflation risks

Japan’s Manufacturing PMI was finalized at 50.0 in December, rising from 48.7 in November and ending a five-month stretch of contraction. The reading points to stabilization rather than renewed expansion, but marks a clear improvement in underlying momentum as 2025 drew to a close.

According to Annabel Fiddes, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, factories reported a much softer decline in sales alongside broadly steady production levels. Employment also provided a modest positive signal, with staffing levels rising at a slightly faster pace as firms positioned for firmer demand in the months ahead.

That said, confidence remains fragile. Respondents continued to flag headwinds from sluggish global conditions, Japan’s ageing population, and rising cost pressures. Input prices climbed at the fastest pace since April, driven by higher raw material and labor costs as well as a weak Yen, prompting firms to lift output prices to protect margins.

China's private PMI services falls to 52.0, constraints persist into 2026

China’s RatingDog PMI Services edged down from 52.1 to 52.0 in December, marking the lowest level in six months and extending the slowdown in growth momentum for a fourth consecutive month.

According to Yao Yu, founder of RatingDog, the sector ended the year with a “modest growth, high expectations” profile. Survey responses showed an improvement in business confidence, offering some "psychological support" for the 2026 outlook.

However, structural headwinds remain evident. Employment continued to contract, while volatile external demand weighed on new business. Both will remain "key constraints facing the sector."

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.57; (P) 156.79; (R1) 157.05; More...

USD/JPY's recovery lost momentum ahead of 157.75 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 154.33 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 158.85 key structural resistance will be an important medium term bullish sign. Next target will be 161.94 high. However, decisive break of 154.38 will turn bias to the downside for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

The dollar index opened with gap higher and rose to 3 ½ week high on Monday, keeping firm tone at the start of the year.

Uncertainty over the US attack on Venezuela prompted migration into safety of dollar, but the greenback was also lifted by optimism that US economic data, due this week, (Manufacturing & Services PMIs / Dec labor data) would show better than expected values and add to expectations of resilience of the economy that would ease pressure on Fed to further ease its monetary policy.

Technical picture on daily chart has improved on break above recent consolidation range top (98.40, reinforced by 100DMA) and attack at pivotal Fibo barrier at 98.41 (38.2% of 100.32/97.39 bear-leg), where bulls faced headwinds.

Sustained break here is needed to generate fresh bullish signal (reversal) and open way for stronger recovery, with extension through obstacles (200DMA at 98.71 and 50% retracement at 98.85) to confirm signal and expose targets at 99.20/30 (Fibo 61.8% / Dec 9 lower top).

Conversely, failure to break higher would keep the price within extended consolidation range, but biased higher while holding above pivotal support at 98.08 (base of thick daily cloud / broken Fibo 23.6% of 100.32/97.39 descend.

The larger picture shows the greenback holding within broader consolidation (95.82/100.32) after sharp fall in the first six months of 2025, when the index fell around 9.5%.

Res: 98.85; 99.00; 99.30; 99.63.
Sup: 98.23; 98.08; 97.91; 97.58.

Sterling is rallying sharply today as UK domestic data challenge expectations of a smooth cooling in demand. The catalyst appears to be November consumer credit data from the BoE, which showed borrowing rose by GBP 2.08B, the largest monthly increase in two years and stronger than any economist forecast.

Annual growth in consumer credit also accelerated to 8.1%, from 7.5% previously. Credit card borrowing surged 12.1%, while other consumer credit expanded 6.3%, highlighting robust appetite for spending rather than precautionary retrenchment, even before the government's Autumn Budget.

Elevated borrowing, especially via credit cards, points to consumer demand holding up more firmly than anticipated, keeping services inflation under upward pressure — the very area where the BoE has struggled to secure sustained disinflation progress.

That backdrop strengthens the case for caution at the February policy meeting. The data give hawkish members of the Monetary Policy Committee justification to push for a hold, at least until post-holiday spending data confirms whether momentum is truly fading.

Technically, Sterling strength is driving EUR/GBP lower, with downside momentum accelerating toward the 0.8618–0.8631 support zone (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618). A clean break there would signal that the rebound from the 2024 low at 0.8221 has already run its course as a corrective move, shifting the near-term outlook decisively bearish.

In GBP/CHF, today’s bounce argues that support near the 55-day EMA and above 1.0594 has held decisively. That keeps the rebound from 1.0362 alive, with a retest of 1.0759 likely soon. Sustained break higher would target 38.2% retracement of 1.1675 to 1.0362 at 1.0864, even still as a corrective move.

Events in Venezuela over the weekend have led to a sharp increase in oil price volatility following the market open. As the chart shows, during the European session the ATR indicator rose to levels last seen before the start of the Christmas period.

It is possible that the opening of US trading could further increase price swings, with the trend potentially developing in either direction:

• Bearish scenario: if American companies gain access to Venezuela’s oil reserves (both in the ground and in storage facilities), this could lead to an increase in supply on the global market.
• Bullish scenario: risks include reactions from China, OPEC+, as well as the possibility of a guerrilla warfare scenario and other difficult-to-predict developments.

At present, WTI crude oil price is holding near the median of the descending channel (highlighted in red). Note the long lower wicks forming when the price touches the lower boundary of the channel, indicating a sharp activation of demand whenever the price falls below the 26 December low of around $56.60 per barrel.

This behaviour resembles a bear trap and could trigger a bullish impulse, potentially testing the upper boundary of the channel.

Start trading commodity CFDs with tight spreads (additional fees may apply). Open your trading account now or learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

At the market open on Monday, 5 January, gold price (XAU/USD) formed a bullish gap. The sharp rise was driven by market reaction to confirmed reports of U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and a forced change of power in Caracas.

News of the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. special forces pushed gold prices up to $4,430 during the European session, and the upward trend may persist into the U.S. trading session. The chart indicates rising demand for safe-haven assets, as market participants may be concerned about further escalation.

Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart

On 26 December, when analysing the gold chart, we:

→ identified an ascending channel;

→ highlighted the $4,400 level;

→ suggested a scenario of bullish momentum exhaustion and profit-taking on long positions, which could lead to a pullback.

Indeed, since then a significant correction has developed, during which:

→ the price (marked by an arrow) expanded the ascending channel to the downside (its former lower boundary became the median line);

→ the $4,400 level acted as resistance on 30 December and 2 January.

However, the geopolitical drivers described above contributed to the following:

→ bulls used the lower boundary of the expanded channel as support to resume the upward move (with a bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the chart);

→ the $4,400 resistance level was broken and may now act as support.

In the short term, it cannot be ruled out that the XAU/USD price may rise towards the median of the indicated channel.

Start trading commodity CFDs with tight spreads (additional fees may apply). Open your trading account now or learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 210.78; (P) 211.11; (R1) 211.47; More...

GBP/JPY is staying in consolidations below 211.57 and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper retreat could be seen but downside should be contained above 206.74 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 205.30 from 199.04 at 211.98 will extend current up trend to 100% projection at 219.99 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 199.04 support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.54; (P) 183.99; (R1) 184.26; More...

EUR/JPY dips notably today but stays well above 181.98 resistance turned support. Intraday bias stays neutral and further rally is still expected. On the upside, firm break of 184.89 will resume larger up trend to 186.31 long term projection level.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, upside could be capped by 186.31 on first attempt. Still, outlook will stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 172.16) holds, even in case of deep pullback. Sustained break of 186.31 will pave the way to 100% projection at 205.81 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8695; (P) 0.8713; (R1) 0.8726; More…

EUR/GBP's fall from 0.8863 resumed by breaking 0.8701 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Further fall should be seen to 0.8631 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618). On the upside, though, firm break of 0.8744 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.8796 resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8617) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.