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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7457; (P) 1.7540; (R1) 1.7590; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 1.7477 will resume the whole decline from 1.8160, and target 1.7245 support and below. Nevertheless, break of 1.7635 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound back to 1.7804. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.8554 is still extending.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7472) holds, price actions from 1.8554 could still be a correction to rise from 1.5963 only. However, sustained break of the EMA will argue that it's already correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9271; (P) 0.9297; (R1) 0.9312; More....

No change in EUR/CHF's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, firm break of 0.9271 will resume the fall from 0.9394. Next target should be a retest of 0.9178 low. However, firm break of 0.9315 will bring stronger rise back to retest 0.9394 resistance.

In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF has breached long term falling channel resistance as the rebound from 0.9278 extends. Considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9366) will indicate medium term bottoming at 0.9178, and suggests that it's already in larger scale rebound. Further break of 0.9452 resistance will bring stronger medium term rally towards 0.9928 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 W EMA will retain bearishness for another fall through 0.9178 at a later stage.

GBP/USD failed to climb above 1.3500 and corrected some gains. EUR/GBP is declining and trading below the 0.8725 support zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is showing bearish signs below 1.3500.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3470 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is declining and showing bearish signs below 0.8725.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.8705 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline after it failed to stay above 1.3500. The British Pound traded below 1.3460 to enter a short-term bearish zone against the US Dollar.

There was a clear move below 1.3435. The pair even settled below 1.3430 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low was formed at 1.3414, and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3502 swing high to the 1.3414 low at 1.3435.

The next key sell zone could be 1.3460 and the 50% Fib retracement. The main hurdle for the bulls might be near a bearish trend line at 1.3470. A close above 1.3470 could open the doors for a move toward 1.3500.

If the pair fails to recover, it could start another decline. On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.3400. If there is a downside break below 1.3400, the pair could accelerate lower.

The next major area of interest might be 1.3360, below which the pair could test 1.3320. Any more losses could lead the pair to 1.3250.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/GBP at FXOpen, the pair struggled to gain pace for a move above 0.8750. The Euro settled below 0.8725 and started a fresh decline against the British Pound.

There was a clear move below the 0.8720 pivot level. The EUR/GBP chart suggests that the pair settled below the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.8720. A low is formed near 0.8696, and the pair is now consolidating losses.

Immediate resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.8745 swing high to the 0.8696 low at 0.8705. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming at 0.8705.

The next key breakout zone might be 0.8725 and the 61.8% Fib retracement. A close above 0.8725 might accelerate gains. In the stated case, the bulls may perhaps aim for a test of 0.8750. Any more gains might send the pair to 0.8780.

Immediate support sits near 0.8695. The next key area for the bulls sits at 0.8680. A downside break below 0.8680 might call for more losses. In the stated case, the pair could drop to 0.8650.

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• Growing political risks in Britain are putting pressure on European currencies.
• Geopolitics are reviving investor interest in gold.

The rise in geopolitical risks against the backdrop of the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the US has increased demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven currency. Coupled with expectations of a prolonged pause in the Fed's monetary expansion cycle and political turmoil in Europe, this has allowed EURUSD bears to mount a counterattack and push the pair below 1.17.

The futures market estimates the chances of a cut in the federal funds rate at the January FOMC meeting at 17% and 48% at the March meeting. The Fed intends to sit on the sidelines until at least spring. This plays into the hands of the US dollar. It is strengthening against major world currencies amid a wide spread between US bonds and their European and Asian counterparts.

Moreover, there are signs of trouble brewing in Europe. Keir Starmer's approval rating has fallen to its lowest level among all British prime ministers in the last half-century. It is worse than that of Liz Truss, who is known for her quick resignation due to turmoil in the financial markets. As a result, the Labour Party is discussing a change of leader. Keir Starmer warns that his removal from power will plunge the country into complete political chaos and open the door to Nigel Farage, who is leading in the polls, for a new prime minister.

The rise in political risks in Britain is putting pressure not only on the pound but also on other European currencies. Following GBPUSD, EURUSD is falling off a cliff.

Politics and geopolitics are forcing investors to seek safe havens. The best option appears to be gold, which shone in 2025. The precious metal managed to rebound from local lows thanks to a spectacular operation by US special forces in Venezuela. Investors successfully bought up the dip in the XAUUSD pair. However, the market may quickly come to the conclusion that events in Latin America will have a muted impact on both the global economy and oil. Venezuela, with its production falling from 3.5 million bpd in the 1970s to 1 million bpd today, is only the 18th largest producer of black gold in the world.

If investors decide that the regime change in Caracas will not lead to turmoil, they will dump safe-haven assets. At the same time, pressure on gold may come from the strengthening of the US dollar amid a prolonged pause in the Fed's cycle of monetary policy easing.

The Australian dollar appears to be the favourite thanks to expectations of a key rate hike by the Reserve Bank and the Chinese economy's adaptation to US tariffs.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3707; (P) 1.3727; (R1) 1.3754; More...

USD/CAD's rebound from 1.3641 extends higher today but still remains below 1.3804 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 1.3804 will argue that fall from 1.4139 has completed. Stronger rebound should be seen back to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3864) and above. On the downside, below 1.3699 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. Break of 1.3641 will target 1.3538 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.4791 is developing into a deeper, larger scale correction. In the less bearish case, it's just correcting the rise from 1.2005 (2021 low). But even so, break of 1.3538 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.4139 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6672; (P) 0.6690; (R1) 0.6712; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral as consolidations continue below 0.6726. With 0.6592 support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, sustained trading above 0.6713 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910.

In the bigger picture, the break of multi-year falling trend line resistance suggests that rise from 0.5913 is possibly reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 will solidify this case, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.7206. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6420 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and retain medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.57; (P) 156.79; (R1) 157.05; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as sideway consolidations from 157.88 continues. Another fall cannot be ruled out, but outlook will stay bullish as long as 154.33 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 158.85 key structural resistance will be an important medium term bullish sign. Next target will be 161.94 high. However, decisive break of 154.38 will turn bias to the downside for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7903; (P) 0.7922; (R1) 0.7943; More….

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.7860 extends today. But upside is capped well below 0.7986 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 0.7900 minor support will turn bias to the downside. Break of 0.7860 will target a retest on 0.7828 low. However, break of 0.7986 will argue that corrective pattern from 0.7828 is still extending with another rising leg already in progress.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low). Long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3430; (P) 1.3466; (R1) 1.3498; More...

GBP/USD is staying in range and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further rally is in favor with 1.3356 support intact. Above 1.3533 will resume the rally from 1.3008 to retest 1.3787 high. However, firm break of 1.3356 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.3787 is merely a corrective move, and larger rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.3787 will target 1.4248 (2021 high) key structural resistance. This will remain the favored case as long as target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 holds, in case of another fall.

Markets

The US intervention in Venezuela over the weekend is grabbing lots of media attention but not so much that of the markets. Geopolitical events rarely impact markets on a lasting basis. The Trump administration ultimately strives for a regime shift with motives stretching from Maduro seen as the illegitimate (and now former) president to Venezuela lambasted as a narco-state impacting the US over the opportunities seen in the country’s failing oil industry. Haven assets including gold are rising this morning but so are the riskier segments in the market. Asian stocks surge up to 3% at the open, led by Japan. The Nikkei225 is inches away from its October 2025 record high. Oil prices swung between losses and gains only to trade little changed at around $60.5 per barrel currently (Brent). US government bonds gain a little. Yields erase some of Friday’s slight gains. Curves turned steeper at the end of last week, particularly in Europe where rates rose between 1.7 and 6.4 bps in the German case. 10-yr tenors (swap, Germany) are nearing important technical levels around 3%. Japan shows a similar steepening this morning. The traditional upcoming supply at the start of the year, corporate and governments alike, is a potential driving force. Slovenia (new 10-yr benchmark EUR transaction today) is a case in point. The jury’s out on the eventual impact of supply on the curve with many (especially sovereigns) targeting shorter maturities to reduce interest rate costs. But the sheer - often record - amount of financing needs is bound to push yields generally higher. The US dollar extends its recent bottoming out process. The gradual recovery of the trade-weighted index kicked in since Christmas Eve at sub 98 and built to 98.66 currently. Everything remains the same technically in 2026 as in 2025 though. EUR/USD is no different with the pair depreciating back below 1.17 after hitting 1.18 two weeks ago. The sideways trading range between 1.14 and 1.19 in place since the summer of 2025 is very much in play. A slightly weaker euro also drags EUR/GBP back below 0.87 for the first time since October.

The first full week of the new year immediately offers an interesting economic calendar that should already shape central bank expectations for the broader Q1, particularly for the Fed. The US kicks off with the manufacturing ISM (December) today with the services gauge due on Wednesday, along with the ADP job and JOLTS reports. Friday’s December payrolls are the highlight. Inflation numbers are due in the euro area but won’t alter market expectations for the ECB’s status quo.

News & Views

The eight OPEC+ countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) reaffirmed their November decision to pause production increments in February and March. Delegates said that they didn’t discuss Venezuela in their monthly update and that it’s premature to assess the impact of the situation and the cartel’s reaction function to it. Lowest oil prices in four years’ time and forecasts of a significant global oil surplus are key considerations. OPEC+ meets again on February 1st. The next official OPEC meeting is scheduled for June 7, 2026.

The private (RatingDog) Chinese services PMI stabilized at 52 in December (from 52.1), matching consensus forecasts. The statement suggested that a smaller number of, especially Japanese, tourists was responsible for a renewed drop in new export business. The employment component slipped further into contraction territory (48.9 from 49.2) while prices charged fell compared with November. The manufacturing PMI was already published last week and unexpectedly returned above the 50 boom/bust mark (50.1 from 49.9). Both output and new orders rose compared to November. Official PMI’s showed a similar end-of-year rebound driven by large manufacturing firms.