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• Oil holds a high consolidation range, now remaining above $63
• WTI keeps an elevated risk-premium despite progress in US-Iran talks
• Exploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity

US markets are closed today in observance of Presidents Day, keeping volumes and volatility lighter than usual.

WTI crude, however, remains firmly on traders’ radar, up 1.40% and strongly holding above $63 at the weekly open.

A second round of US-Iran talks is underway in Geneva, with the UN nuclear watchdog meeting overnight with Iran’s top diplomat in search of a potential framework.

US conditions remain rigid, particularly as Iran’s current Islamic government faces internal pressure following recent unrest, with reports suggesting more than 30,000 protesters have been killed — and the true toll potentially higher.

Washington is pushing for a comprehensive deal, as reiterated by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu following his White House visit, demanding that Iran surrender its enriched uranium stockpile and dismantle its ballistic missile program.

Those headlines briefly pressured oil lower last week, but skepticism persists.

US Secretary Marco Rubio added that “it’s been very difficult for anyone to do real deals with Iran,” underscoring the fragile backdrop of negotiations.

Before tensions escalated, WTI was trading in the $56–$59 range.

Since then, the buildup of military assets in the region and Iran’s history of contentious agreements have kept a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices.

Odds for a US strike in Iran – Source: Polymarket. February 16, 2026

Polymarket-based odds for a strike before February 28 still remain around 30%.

Let's dive into a bottom-up multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to determine where the action currently stands.

US Oil Multi-Timeframe Analysis

WTI Daily Chart

WTI Oil Daily Chart – February 16, 2026. Source: TradingView

Oil is now holding clear above its 200-Day moving average (currently at $62.81), acting as decisive support in the recent action.

Sellers attempted a lower push in the past week of action, but having failed to do so, the MA provides a clear level for technical analysis:

• Remaining above points to further chances of an upside breakout and implies that the Iran risk-premium holds.
• Breaking and closing below however would translate to a deal having been reached.

Angst remains elevated and odds for a deal are still realistically low, particularly considering that more warships are on the way to the Middle East, so this could simply be attempts to save some time – But Trump is the writer of the Art of the Deal, so naturally a deal is never fully out of the picture.

WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels

WTI Oil 4H Chart – February 16, 2026. Source: TradingView

The action rebounded well in this thin-volume Monday but key technical tests are ahead for bulls:

• The action remains in a triangle formation, indicating directionless behaviors and traders simply profiting by fading the spikes while nothing concrete occurs.
• The 4H 50-period MA ($63.82) is acting as key resistance on the intraday timeframe.
  • Any clear push above with volume points to a breakout, in the meantime, profit-taking could easily occur here.
• Any deal could easily lead to regaining the $59 level and could face even further pressure towards early 2026 levels.

WTI Technical Levels

Levels to place on your WTI charts:

Resistance Levels:

• $63.83 4H 50-MA and session Highs
• Past week Spike $66.56
• Minor Resistance $65 to $66
• September 2025 Major resistance $67 (could get breached if US attacks)
• Psychological Resistance $70
• $78.43 12-Day War highs

Support Levels:

• Range Key Pivot/Support $62.30 to $63.40 (Iran Premium lows and 200-Day MA)
• 4H 200-period MA $61.11
• May Range lows support $59 to $60.5 Major support
• Iran Support area $58.50 to $59

1H Chart

WTI Oil 1H Chart – February 16, 2026. Source: TradingView

On the shorter timeframe, Oil is reaching overbought level and with the 4H 50-period MA acting as immediate resistance, mean-reversion back to the Pivot Zone would not be shocking.

One thing to be wary of, is that ahead of a deal officially being reached, going short Oil holds immense risks, with stops which could largely be missed in case of a price jump or any sudden turmoil.

Safe Trades and a successful week!

CADJPY: ⬆️ Buy

• CADJPY reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 113.00

CADJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone between the support level 112.00 (former low of wave A from January), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from November.

The upward reversal from this support zone is likely to form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star.

Given the strong daily uptrend, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 113.00.

• Precious metals are diverging due to different market structures.
• Dollar under pressure before US GDP and EU business activity releases.

The slowdown in US CPI from 2.7% to 2.4% has halted the advance of the US dollar. If inflation returns to its 2% target without a recession, the Fed will not need to keep rates at such high levels. The futures market has raised the chances of a resumption of the monetary expansion cycle to 29% in April and 67% in June. The fall in EURUSD that began after strong employment statistics has been put on hold.

In fact, the Fed is unlikely to change its outlook based on a single report. The central bank needs confirmation of labour market stabilisation and a disinflationary trend. According to Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, prices must fall to 2%, so the central bank’s work is not finished yet. However, a pause in the Fed’s easing cycle plays into the hands of EURUSD bears.

Pressure on the US dollar is being driven by fears of a sharp slowdown in US GDP in the fourth quarter, from 4.4% to 3%, as well as by investor confidence in upbeat business activity reports from the eurozone. According to Capital Group, the currency bloc’s economic acceleration will drive inflation and force the ECB to raise its deposit rate by the end of this year. This will bring EURUSD back above 1.2.

The yen was the best performer among G10 currencies in the second week of February. Investors bet on political stability after the Liberal Democratic Party won the parliamentary elections and the associated repatriation of capital to Japan. However, Sanae Takaichi now needs to prove her government’s commitment to stabilising finances.

Gold returned above $5,000 per ounce amid mixed signals from the US labour market and inflation. Its path diverged from that of silver. The white metal is falling due to concerns that silver will not be able to return to $100. This is activating sellers of recycled silver. Increased supply amid declining demand from the industry and jewellery due to high prices could return the market to surplus after five years of deficit.

In addition, the gold-silver ratio fell to its lowest level in nearly 13 years at the end of January. The white metal looks expensive from this perspective.

Markets

The absence of both US investors (President’s Day) and important eco data set the stage for a quiet start to the trading week. In the second (or even third) tier data category we found January wage tracker data from Indeed Hiring Lab. The data measure growth in wages advertised in job postings for selected country. The euro area series is an employment-weighted average of the five largest nations and Ireland. Data showed wage growth slowing from 2.43% Y/Y to 2.29% which equals the 3m moving average of 2.3% (stable from 2.28% in December; slowest pace since November 2021). On Friday, the ECB publishes more closely-watched quarterly negotiated wage data (Q4). One-off payments pulled the series from 4% Y/Y in Q2 to 1.9% Y/Y in Q3 with markets expecting a rebound to 2.9% Y/Y in Q4 2025. The central bank’s latest forward looking wage tracker, released last week, points to 2.1% wage growth in the first half of this year and 2.7% growth in H2. It still sees forward-looking information in line with negotiated wage growth that might level off at below 3% by the end of 2026. If realized, these kind of wage growth levels support the case for the ECB to hold the policy rate near a 2% neutral level. Wage growth figures for the UK showed a stabilization around 4.14% Y/Y in January with the 3m moving average extending its slide (since July 2024!) from 4.47% to 4.24%, matching the lowest level since March 2022. UK markets are unnerved as they also eye the bigger releases later this week. The labour market report opens the debates tomorrow with weekly earnings (excl) bonuses expect to mirror today’s numbers with a decrease to 4.2% which would be the lowest since January 2022. Any signs of disappointing job growth would be taken as confirmation that the Bank of England could implement its next rate cut as soon as in March. BoE governor Bailey, the decisive vote of late, saw scope for some further easing of policy. He’s growing more confident on the overall path of wage disinflation while also stressing on several occasions the difference between soft comments (on the labour market) coming from business contacts and actual data still pointing a somewhat less worrying picture. On Wednesday and on Friday, CPI inflation and retail sales round up this week’s UK numbers. EUR/GBP 0.8750 resistance is the one to watch if markets find more evidence to lift near term rate cut bets.

News & Views

The Swiss economy bounced back from the 0.5% decline registered in 2025Q3 with a 0.2% recovery (flash estimate). The expansion was less than the 0.3% expected though. Annual growth last year amounted to 1.4%, quickening from 2024’s 1.2% but well below average economic growth of 1.8% (since 1981), the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said. Services sector growth from a quarterly perspective was muted and the industrial sector stagnated. In annual terms, however, services grew at an above-average rate, while the “challenging international environment” slowed the export-oriented industry. Growth numbers today came after last week’s sub-par (m/m) inflation readings but are unlikely to sway the central bank into more rate cuts short-term. With a 0% policy rate, the bar for the Swiss National Bank to go back into negative territory is high. The Swiss franc underperforms vs most peers today but remains strong from a long-term point of view. EUR/CHF is filling bids in the 0.913 area.

It happened all in silence, but the topic on joining the euro area is gaining traction in Sweden. Its finance minister Svantesson announced her backing for an inquiry into the pros and cons last month, at the request of the Liberal party. It would be another major U-turn, along with NATO accession in 2022 and testament to how the changing (geopolitical) world order is both ripping up and strengthening existing ties as well as forging new ones. Swedish voters back in 2003 rejected the common currency in a referendum and Svantesson suggested that any plans for euro adoption would again be put to a public vote. That poses significant hurdles for short-term accession with still nearly a majority of Swedes against and about one third in favor. That gap is nevertheless much smaller than a decade ago, when three in four Swedes opposed the euro. There is also some tough political opposition to overcome with the Greens, the Left and far-right all against. While the debate may grow, it is expected that the actual evaluation for euro accession (based on the inquiry) won’t start until after the September elections.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1849; (P) 1.1867; (R1) 1.1887; More….

EUR/USD is still bounded in sideway trading and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 1.1928 will target a retest on 1.2081 high. Decisive break there and sustained trading above 1.2 psychological level will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, however, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.1760) will raise the chance of reversal on rejection by 1.2, and target 1.1576 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1485) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3610; (P) 1.3635; (R1) 1.3679; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as sideway trading is still in progress. On the upside, firm break of 1.3732 will suggest that pullback from 1.3867 has completed as a correction at 1.3507. Retest of 1.3867 should be seen first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend towards 1.4284 key resistance. On the downside, however, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.3511) will raise the chance of larger scale correction, and target 1.3342 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) still in progress and should target 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.3008 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.31; (P) 152.99; (R1) 153.38; More...

Outlook is unchanged in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. With 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 intact, price actions from 159.44 are seen as a consolidations pattern only. On the upside, firm break of 154.63 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound towards 157.65. However, decisive break of 151.96 will argue that it's reversing the rise from 139.87 already. In this case, deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 147.34, and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.77) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7656; (P) 0.7688; (R1) 0.7707; More….

Outlook is unchanged for USD/CHF. Consolidation pattern from 0.7603 is extending and intraday bias stays neutral. Stronger rebound cannot be ruled out but upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 0.7855) to complete the pattern. On the downside, break of 0.7603 will resume larger down trend, and target 0.7382 projection level next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8123 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7046; (P) 0.7072; (R1) 0.7100; More...

AUD/USD recovers mildly after hitting 55 4H EMA, but stays below 0.7146 short term top. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point, and more consolidations would be seen. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained above 0.6896 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 0.7146 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.7213.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.