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In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the Daily Elliott Wave Charts of GBPUSD. In which, the rally from 13 January 2025 low is unfolded as impulse sequence & showed a higher high sequence therefore, called for an extension higher to take place. We knew that the structure in GBPUSD should remain supported & extend higher. So, we advised members not to sell the pair & buy the dips in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

GBPUSD Daily Elliott Wave Chart From 11.01.2025

Here’s the Daily Elliott wave Chart from the 11.01.2025 Weekend update. In which, the rally to $1.3789 high completed wave (3) & made a pullback in wave (4). The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave double three correction where wave W ended at $1.3142 low. A rally to $1.3726 high-ended wave X bounce. Then started the next leg lower in wave Y towards $1.3082- $1.2683 blue box area. From there, buyers were expected to appear looking for new highs ideally or for a 3-wave bounce minimum.

GBPUSD Latest Daily Elliott Wave Chart From 12.13.2025

This is the latest Daily Elliott wave Chart from the 12.13.2025 Weekend update. In which the pair is showing a strong reaction higher taking place, right after ending the correction within the blue box area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the long position at the blue box area. However, a break above $1.3789 high is needed to confirm the next extension higher. Towards $1.3972- $1.4270 ( minimum extension target) and avoid deeper correction lower.

Brent crude oil fell to 60.00 USD per barrel on Tuesday, marking its lowest price since early 2021. The sell-off was driven by two primary factors: renewed speculation about progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and mounting fears of a global supply glut.

The prospect of a peace agreement has raised the possibility that the US will lift sanctions on Russian oil exports, potentially releasing a significant volume of crude into an already well-supplied market.

Bearish sentiment was further amplified by weaker-than-expected economic data from China on Monday, intensifying concerns about slowing energy demand in the world's largest crude importer.

These downward pressures effectively overshadowed lingering geopolitical risks, including escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela, which could otherwise have supported prices through fears of supply disruption.

Technical Analysis: Brent Crude

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, Brent crude broke downwards from a consolidation range around 61.61 USD, confirming the resumption of the bearish trend. This breakdown activated a downward wave with an initial target at 59.30 USD. We anticipate a near-term continuation of the decline to approximately 59.59 USD, likely to be followed by a minor technical rebound towards 60.45 USD.

Following this corrective bounce, we expect the downtrend to reassert itself, driving prices towards the primary target of 59.30 USD, where the current bearish impulse is likely to be exhausted. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains firmly below zero, indicating sustained selling momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market continues to develop a clear downward wave structure following its rejection from the 61.60 USD resistance. The immediate path points towards a decline to at least 59.59 USD. A brief rebound from this level towards 60.45 USD is plausible, representing a short-term correction before the next leg down targets the 59.30 USD support.

The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this near-term bearish bias. Its signal line is at the 50 midpoint and is turning downward, suggesting that selling pressure is re-emerging.

Conclusion

Brent crude is under significant pressure, caught between the bearish implications of potential peace-driven supply increases and concerns over Chinese demand. Technically, the break below 61.61 USD has solidified a negative outlook, with a clear path towards the 59.30 USD target. Any near-term rebounds are likely to be corrective within this broader downtrend. Traders should monitor the 59.30 USD level closely; a decisive break below may trigger an acceleration of the sell-off, while a strong rebound from this support would suggest a period of consolidation.

Today the EUR/NZD rate touched the 2.4000 level — the highest reading since late November — but then saw a fairly sharp pullback. Fundamentally, the heightened volatility is driven by a combination of factors.

The euro (EUR) is showing strength because:

→ industrial production in the euro area unexpectedly rose by 0.8% (above forecasts), easing recession fears;

→ the market expects a more measured tone from the European Central Bank amid stabilising data. The meeting will take place on Thursday, 18 December.

On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) has come under pressure:

→ a report published on 9 December by the New Zealand Treasury (the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update) delivered a gloomy outlook: the economic recovery is stalling, and unemployment could rise to 5.5%;

→ prices for dairy products (the country’s main export) are falling, undermining the resilience of the “kiwi”.

That said, the EUR/NZD chart suggests that the scope for further upside may be limited.
Technical Analysis of the EUR/NZD Chart

From 29 November to 12 December, the pair declined (A→B) by roughly 2.9%, and then rallied to today’s peak (2), which lies almost exactly midway between the extremes at A and B. From a Fibonacci perspective, this can reasonably be interpreted as a normal pullback to the 50% level, after which the downward move may resume.

From the viewpoint of trend channels, the descending channel has been expanded upwards, while today’s move (up then down) essentially resembles a Bearish Engulfing pattern — formed during an attempt to break above the upper boundary of the channel.

Many indicators are likely to show divergence between highs 1 and 2. Therefore, taking all of the above into account, forex traders should keep in mind a scenario in which the upward trajectory of the past seven days (shown in blue) is broken by the bears, and the EUR/NZD rate continues to develop within the descending channel.

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UK PMI surveys delivered a more constructive signal in December, pointing to firmer momentum at year-end. PMI Manufacturing jumped from 50.2 to 51.2, a 15-month high, while PMI Services rose from 51.3 to 52.1. PMI Composite also climbed to 52.1 from 51.2.

S&P Global noted that businesses were buoyed by the "post-Budget lifting of uncertainty". The survey is consistent with GDP growth accelerating to around 0.2% in December, though momentum for the fourth quarter as a whole remains more modest at roughly 0.1%.

Despite the improvement, growth remains uneven. Output and demand are still described as "lackluster overall", with expansion heavily reliant on technology and financial services. Many other sectors continue to struggle or remain in outright contraction. Job losses were reported as worryingly widespread, raising doubts over whether stronger orders will translate into renewed hiring, particularly with staff costs still cited as a major pressure.

Taken together, the PMI data supports expectations for a further rate cut at the December MPC meeting, while reinforcing that the path for additional easing in 2026 will remain highly data dependent.

Full UK PMI flash release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 206.97; (P) 207.78; (R1) 208.47; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidations below 208.92. Further rally is expected as long as 205.17 support holds. On the upside, break of 208.92 will resume larger up trend and target 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 205.30 from 199.04 at 211.98 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is resuming. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 199.04 support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 181.84; (P) 182.44; (R1) 183.03; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for consolidations below 183.14. Further rally remains in favor as long as 180.07 support holds. But considering bearish divergence condition in both 4H and D MACD, upside should be limited 100% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 171.09 at 183.90, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, firm break of 180.07 will confirm short term topping, and bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 178.84).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, upside should be capped by 186.31 on first attempt. Outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 170.73) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8774; (P) 0.8781; (R1) 0.8794; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral and further decline is in mildly in favor with 0.8800 resistance intact. Below 0.8720 will target 0.8631 cluster (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618). However, break of 0.8800 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8863.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8605) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7657; (P) 1.7682; (R1) 1.7726; More...

Immediate focus is on 55 D EMA (now at 1.7726) as rebound from 1.7477 extends. Sustained break there would argue that fall from 1.8160 has completed, and bring stronger rise back to 1.7976 resistance next. Rejection by 55 D EMA will keep near term outlook bearish. Below 1.7477 will target 1.7245 support and possibly below. Overall, price actions from 1.8554 are seen as a corrective pattern that would still extend.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7465) holds, price actions from 1.8554 could still be a correction to rise from 1.5963 only. However, sustained break of the EMA will argue that it's already correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922.

Eurozone PMI data for December pointed to a clear loss of momentum heading into year-end. PMI Manufacturing slipped from 49.6 to 49.2, an eight-month low. PMI Services also eased from 53.6 to 52.6, dragging PMI Composite down from 53.8 to 51.9 and signaling a broader slowdown in activity.

According to Hamburg Commercial Bank, the weakness was driven mainly by Germany, where the industrial downturn intensified. France showed tentative signs of industrial stabilization, but that improvement was offset by stagnation in services. Germany’s service sector, by contrast, continued to expand solid. Overall, the data suggests that "the runway into the new year seems pretty unstable".

Cost inflation in the service sector accelerated to its highest level in nine months, reinforcing the ECB’s concern over wage-driven price pressures. With the central bank meeting on December 18 and closely monitoring services inflation, the PMI data is likely to validate its stated preference to leave interest rates unchanged, despite softer growth signals.

Full Eurozone PMI flash release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9341; (P) 0.9353; (R1) 0.9369; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 0.9394. On the upside, break of 0.9394 will resume the rebound from 0.9178 to 0.9452 structural resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 0.9311 support will argue that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9178 low.

In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF has breached long term falling channel resistance as the rebound from 0.9278 extends. Considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9316) will indicate medium term bottoming at 0.9178, and suggests that it's already in larger scale rebound. Further break of 0.9452 resistance will bring stronger medium term rally towards 0.9928 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 W EMA will retain bearishness for another fall through 0.9278 at a later stage.