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The Fed is widely expected to hit the pause button today on its rate hike campaign that began over a year ago, before hiking once more in the third quarter. The notion for a Fed “skip” was bolstered by yesterday’s CPI data that point to slowing US inflation. An unexpected rate hike today would shock markets.

US stocks have been soaring amid hopes that peak US rates are close at hand. These expectations have served as an added tailwind to the AI-mania that has propelled tech stocks higher, with Nvidia securing its membership in the trillion-dollar club yesterday while Apple notched a fresh record high earlier this week.

Ultimately, markets will be laser-focused on the Fed’s signals about future policy moves as contained within the FOMC policy statement, dot plot, and Chair Powell’s press conference.

If the Fed suggests that its benchmark rates have to move even higher, beyond the sole remaining 25-bp hike forecast by markets, that should translate into an immediate boost for the US dollar while eroding support for gold. The thought that the Fed still has to work harder to achieve its inflation target may also give equity bulls reason to pause their heady ascent of late.

Should Powell and co. deliver on the market’s existing expectations, or even offer up hints of dovishness, that should allow US stocks to hop higher and add to recent gains.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 175.25; (P) 176.05; (R1) 177.65; More...

GBP/JPY's up trend is still in progress. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 100% projection of 148.93 to 172.11 from 155.33 at 178.51 next. Strong resistance could be seen from there to bring pull back, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 174.33 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is extending. Next target will be 161.8% projection of 122.75 (2016 low) to 156.59 (2018 high) from 123.94 at 178.69. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 167.82 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.47; (P) 150.92; (R1) 151.81; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is back on the upside with break of 151.05 resistance. Firm break of 151.60 hill will resume larger up trend and target 153.64 projection level. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 148.58 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 148.38 from 138.81 at 153.64. Sustained break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 162.82. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 139.05 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8536; (P) 0.8575; (R1) 0.8596; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as consolidation form 0.8538 is extending. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8634 resistance holds. Break of 0.8538 will resume larger decline from 0.8977 to 161.8% projection of 0.8977 to 0.8717 from 0.8874 at 0.8453. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 0.8634 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is still in progress. It's seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). Deeper fall would be seen towards 0.8201 (2022 low). But strong support should be seen from there to bring reversal. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.8717 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5894; (P) 1.5938; (R1) 1.5996; More...

EUR/AUD's fall from 1.6785 might still extend lower. But downside should be contained by 100% projection of 1.6785 to 1.6134 from 1.6513 at 1.5862, on loss of momentum as seen in 4H MACD. Break of 1.6101 support will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term is possibly in place at 1.6785 already, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Fall from there is seen as corrective whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.6513 resistance holds, to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.6785 at 1.5828. Strong support could be seen there to complete the first leg of the corrective pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9750; (P) 0.9773; (R1) 0.9791; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Rebound from 0.9670 is in progress. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 0.9779) will add to case that whole correction from 1.0095 has completed, after hitting 61.8% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9670. Further rally should then be seen to 0.9878 resistance next. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.9670 support holds.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. The pair is also capped below 55 W EMA (now at 0.9929). Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is not complete yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0757; (P) 1.0790; (R1) 1.0827; More...

EUR/USD's rebound from 1.0634 short term bottom is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained trading above 55 EMA (now at 1.0810) will pave the way back to retest 1.1094 high. Nevertheless, break of 1.0732 minor support should resume the fall from 1.1094 through 1.0634 support.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0515 support holds, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) would still extend higher. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2532; (P) 1.2579; (R1) 1.2657; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the upside as rebound from 1.2306 is in progress to retest 1.2678 high. Based on current momentum, upside could be limited there, to bring another fall to extend the corrective pattern from 1.2678. On the downside, break of 1.2485 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2306 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1801 support holds, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) is expected to extend further. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759 will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.1801 will indicate rejection by 1.2759, and bring deeper decline, even as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9024; (P) 0.9059; (R1) 0.9087; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.8983 will revive the case that corrective rebound from 0.8818 has completed at 0.9146. Intraday bias will be back to the downside for deeper fall back to retest 0.8818 low. On the upside, however, break of 0.9146 will resume the rebound from 0.8818 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is seen as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high), which might have completed at 0.8818 already, just ahead of 0.8756 long term support. Sustained trading above 0.9058 support turned resistance should confirm medium term bottoming. Further break of 0.9439 resistance will confirm bullish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.39; (P) 139.85; (R1) 140.69; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in sideway trading and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 138.22 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 140.90 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 142.48 fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 138.22 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 137.02).

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 142.48. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.