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US initial jobless claims rose 11k to 239k in the week ending April 8, above expectation of 235k. That's the highest level since January 15, 2022. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 2k to 240, highest since November 20, 2021.

Continuing claims dropped -13k to 1810k in the week ending April 1. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 9.5k to 1814k, highest since November 13, 2021.

Full US jobless claims release here.

The USDCHF fell to the lowest levels in more than two years on Thursday, as fresh weakness extends into third straight day.

Bears broke below psychological 0.90 support for the first time since June 2021, signaling continuation of larger downtrend from 1.0147 peak (Oct 2022) which paused for consolidation in first three months of 2023.

The latest dollar’s weakness was sparked by downbeat US CPI data, which pushed the price trough key supports and generated strong bearish signal.

Weekly close below 0.90 level to confirm signal and keep the pair en-route towards key med-term support at 0.8757 (Jan 2021 low), which guards pivot at 0.8705 (50% retracement of 2011/2016 0.7067/1.0343 rally / Apr-May 2014 higher base).

Bearish daily and weekly technical studies contribute to negative picture, although oversold conditions warn that bears may lose traction in coming sessions.

Broken 0.90 support and former range floor (0.9058) reverted to solid resistances which should limit potential upticks and keep bears intact.

Res: 0.9085; 0.9119; 0.9140; 0.9186.
Sup: 0.8871; 0.8757; 0.8705; 0.8634.

ETHUSD (Ethereum) has been stuck in an uptrend since the beginning of the year, generating a fresh nine-month high of 1,995 in today’s session following the successful completion of the long-awaited Shanghai upgrade. Now the focus turns to whether the pair can extend its 2023 rally and reclaim the 2,000 psychological mark.

The momentum indicators currently suggest that bullish forces are intensifying. Specifically, the RSI is attempting to cross above the 70-overbought territory, while the stochastic oscillators are ascending within the 80-overbought zone after posting a bullish cross.

Should Ethereum rise above the 2,000 psychological mark, the August 2022 peak of 2,030 could act as initial resistance. Breaching this territory, the price could ascend towards the 2,450 zone, which served as support and could act as resistance in the future. A break above this region could pave the way for the 3,030 hurdle.

Alternatively, if sellers re-emerge and push the price lower, immediate support could be met at 1,770. Should that floor collapse, the bears could aim for 1,690 before the February support of 1,463, which lies very close to the 200-day SMA, comes under examination. Even lower, the March bottom of 1,370 may provide downside protection.

Overall, the latest fundamental developments have given ETHUSD the necessary boost towards a fresh higher high. For the uptrend to resume though, the price needs to close above the 2,000 psychological mark. 

GBPJPY pair is still at the highs on a daily chart, which looks like a consolidation within uptrend, ideally as a bigger bullish running triangle pattern within higher degree wave (4).

Currently we are tracking final stages of a complex w-x-y rally into wave D that can cause another wave E slow down. So, once a triangle fully unfolds, be aware of a retest of the highs for wave (5) of a higher degree wave C/B.

The running triangle is a region of horizontal price movement, a consolidation of a prior move, and it is composed of “threes.” That means each of the A-B-C-D-E waves have three subwaves.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9833; (P) 0.9852; (R1) 0.9873; More...

EUR/CHF's strong break of 0.9837 support argues that rebound from 0.9407 has completed. More importantly, corrective pattern from 1.0067 high is extending with another falling leg. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9074, and possibly below. On the upside, though, break of 0.9889 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 55 week EMA (now at 1.1002) and 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 suggests that medium term outlook is staying bearish. That is, down trend from 1.2004 is not completed yet and is in favor to resume through 0.9407 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.0095 resistance will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal. Rise from 0.9407 should then target 1.0505 cluster resistance (2020 low at 1.0505, 61.8% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.1484).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8783; (P) 0.8801; (R1) 0.8823; More...

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 0.8864 will target 0.8924 resistance first. Firm break there should resume larger rise from 0.8545 through 0.8977 high. However, decisive break of 0.8717 support will resume the decline from 0.8977 instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains rather mixed for now, except that price actions from 0.9267 (2022 high) are part of the long term range pattern from 0.9499 (2020 high). With 0.8720 support intact, rise from 0.8545 is in favor to continue through 0.8977. However, firm break of 0.8720 will argue that such rebound has completed, and open up deeper fall through this support level.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6357; (P) 1.6397; (R1) 1.6463; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral with focus on 1.5434 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6216 should confirm short term topping, after rejection by 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone. Intraday bias will be back on the downside in this case, to 1.6033 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.82; (P) 146.26; (R1) 146.78; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Current rise from 137.37 is in progress and further further rally should be seen back to retest 148.38 high. On the downside, below 145.13 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral. But outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 142.53 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 139.78) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. Decisive break there will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 127.39.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 165.55; (P) 166.07; (R1) 166.75; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 155.33 is resuming and further rally should be seen to 69.26 resistance next. For now, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 162.75 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 holds, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.

Market picture

Bitcoin is consolidating around the $30K mark for the third day, moving in a tight $20.7-30.3K range. Yesterday’s news from the US had a moderately negative impact on the price but did not cause any sustained pressure.

With the market pulling back from local highs earlier in the day, cryptocurrency capitalisation is now around 1% higher than 24 hours ago. Bitcoin added 0.5%, Ethereum 2.7%, and the top altcoins ranged from -0.2% (XRP) to +5.5% (Solana).

The $30,000 mark was significant for Bitcoin in 2021 and the first half of 2022, acting as a market mode switch. Last year, bitcoin consolidated around this price for about five weeks before plunging sharply. There is a greater chance of a mirror dynamic, with the bulls taking a long time to gather their strength before making a decisive move higher.

The entire cryptocurrency market could follow a similar dynamic to the flagship cryptocurrency.

Bank of America noted that there had been a substantial outflow of bitcoins from cryptocurrency exchanges to users’ wallets. This occurs when investors intend to hold BTC for the long term, suggesting that the pressure from sellers may be easing.

News background

According to Pew Research, around 70% of Americans with varying degrees of awareness of cryptocurrency projects do not plan to invest in digital assets soon. High volatility, high-profile bankruptcies and regulatory uncertainty have all played a role.

A European Commission agency has published a document calling for stricter identity checks on users of cryptocurrency exchanges and crypto ATMs.

The Spanish government’s tax agency (AEAT) has stepped up efforts to collect taxes from local holders of digital assets. Officials will notify 328,000 traders.

The Binance.US exchange announced that it was delisting trading pairs involving TRON (TRX) after rumours surfaced online that Tron founder Justin Sun had been arrested by Hong Kong law enforcement. Sun later denied the rumours.

Argentina’s National Commission of Values (CNV) approved a futures index for Bitcoin as part of its strategic innovation programme. The index would be the first such product in Latin America.