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• USDCHF under strong bearish pressure
• Likely to fall to support level 0.8800

USDCHF under the strong bearish pressure after the pair broke the support area located between the support levels 0.9020 and 0.8920 (former multi-month low from 2021).

The breakout of this support area accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from March.

USDCHF can then be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.8800 (which stopped the weekly downtrend at the start of 2021, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)).

• Gold broke resistance level 2030.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 2100.

Gold continues to rise after the price broke the minor resistance level 2030.00 (which reversed the price at the start of this month).

The breakout of the resistance level 2030.00 continues the active minor impulse wave 3 which belongs to the sharp upward impulse sequence (3) from February.

Given the multi month uptrend, Gold can then be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 2100.00 (forecast price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).

Bears couldn’t keep control of the market, and ETH/USD started to correct upwards after touching a low of $1,763 on 9 April.

ETHUSD is now moving under a strong bullish momentum after crossing the $2,000 resistance and may touch $2,100 and $2,200 levels.

The morning star pattern is above the $1,824 handle on the H1 timeframe. It’s a bullish pattern, which signifies the end of a bearish phase.

The relative strength index is at 78.57, indicating a strong demand for Ether and a continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

The STOCHRSI and Williams’s percent range give an overbought signal, meaning that the price is expected to decline in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are bullish. Most moving averages are bullish.

ETH is now trading above the 100-hour simple and 200-hour exponential moving averages.

• Ether bullish reversal is seen above the $1,824 mark.
• The short-term range is expected to be strongly bullish.
• The average true range indicates low market volatility.

Ether Bullish Reversal Is Seen Above $1,824

On the daily chart, ETH is trading just above its pivot level of $1,987 and is moving into a very strong bullish channel. The price has already crossed its classic resistance level of $1,991 and Fibonacci resistance level of $1,997; further upsides are located at $2,050 and $2,100.

A bullish price crossover is formed with the 20-week and 50-week adaptive moving averages in the weekly timeframe. The key support levels to watch are $1,938, which is the first resistance level of the pivot point indicator, and $1,962.

The Week Ahead

ETH has crossed the $2,000 barrier, and now we are heading towards the $2,100 level in the medium-term range in the H1 timeframe.

There is a bullish ascending channel forming from $1,824 towards the $1,999 level.

There is a major bullish trendline with the support located at $1,775, which is a 14-day RSI at 50.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned as mildly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The resistance zone is located at $2,024, which is a 14-day RSI at 70%, and at $2,029, which is a 50% Fib retracement from 52-week High/Low.

The weekly outlook is $2,200 with a consolidation zone of $2,100.

Bears couldn't pull the market further down last week, and after touching a low of $89.15 on 9 April, LTC started to correct upwards against the US Dollar, touching a high of $96.85 on 11 April.

There is a tweezer bottom pattern above the $89.15 handle on the H1 timeframe. It signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the market.

The price of Litecoin is near the channel's support, indicating upcoming bullish movement. Also, Litecoin is trading above its 100-hour simple moving average and 200-hour exponential moving average, and it's above the pivot level of $93.76.

The relative strength index is at 67.54, reflecting a very strong demand for Litecoin and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Litecoin remains above all moving averages, so the market is still bullish at the current market level of $94.23.

Both Williams’s percent range and STOCHRSI are signalling overbought market conditions, which means that the price is expected to decline in the short-term range.

The short-term outlook for Litecoin has turned as strongly bullish.

• Technical indicators are bullish.
• Litecoin bullish reversal is seen above the $89.15 level.
• The average true range indicates low market volatility.

Litecoin Bullish Reversal Seen Above $89.15

The price of Litecoin continues to move in a very strong uptrend, crossing the $95 handle, with further resistances at $98 and $100.

There is a bullish crossover of 50-day and 100-day moving averages in the 4-hour timeframe.

LTCUSD has crossed its classic resistance level of $93.93 and Fibonacci resistance level of $94.22, after which the path towards $100 will get cleared.

Litecoin faces resistance at $96.96, which is a 1-month high, and at $97.99, which is the third resistance level of the pivot point indicator.

The Week Ahead

The price of Litecoin rebounded from the high of $96.85, and after the market consolidation, the bullish trend continued in the daily timeframe.

Most of the technical indicators are reflecting a bullish sentiment.

Litecoin may stay above the important support level of $92.12, at which price crosses the 9-day moving average, and at $90.38, which is the first support level of the pivot point indicator.

The short-term outlook for Litecoin has turned strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook is bullish, and the long-term outlook is neutral at present market conditions.

The weekly projection is $110, with a consolidation zone at $105.

GBP/USD has edged higher and is trading around the 1.25 line. Earlier today, GBP/USD touched a high of 1.2537, its highest level since June 6th.

UK GDP stalls

The UK economy flatlined in February, versus an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in January and the consensus estimate of 0.1%. Growth was a negligible 0.1% in the three months to the end of February, as the economy has stagnated. The drivers behind the lack of growth are widespread strikes and inflation, which remains stubbornly high. How bad is the outlook for the UK  economy? An IMF forecast released this week has projected that growth will contract by 0.3% in 2023, making it the worst performer in the G-20, which includes Russia.

The country has been hit by a wave of large-scale strikes in the public sector, as workers have seen real income fall due to red-hot inflation. The strikes, which show no signs of letting up, resulted in business activity and manufacturing contracting in February and further labour unrest will continue to hamper economic growth.

Inflation isn’t showing any signs of peaking, and rose in February to 10.4%, up from 10.1% in January. The Bank of England may have designated inflation as public enemy number one, but raising interest rates to 4.25% has failed to curb inflation. UK Finance Minister Hunt has pledged to slice inflation in half and says a recession can be avoided, but Hunt’s optimism is hard to share given the grim economic landscape in the UK.

US PPI drops sharply

In the US, inflation at the wholesale level fell sharply in March. Headline PPI dropped to 2.7% y/y, down sharply from an upwardly revised 4.9% a month earlier and below the estimate of 3.0%. The core rate eased to 3.4% y/y, down from 4.8% in February and matching the forecast. On a monthly basis, headline PPI dropped by 0.5% and the core rate by 0.1%.

The positive PPI data comes on the heels of the consumer inflation report, which was mixed, as headline CPI fell from 5.9% to 5.0%, while the core rate nudged up to 5.6%, up from 5.5%. Inflation has been decelerating, but the markets still expect a rate hike in May, with a 65% probability of a 25-bp increase, according to the CME Group.

GBP/USD Technical

• GBP/USD touched resistance at 1.2537 earlier. The next resistance line is 1.2656
• There is support at 1.2405 and 1.2282

Gold hit the highest levels since March 2022 after strong acceleration higher on Thursday, with metal’s price advancing 1.5% until early US session.

Weaker than expected US economic data on Wed/Thu added to existing concerns that the economy is likely to enter a mild recession and boosted bets that the Fed may pause in interest rate hikes, which increased demand for safe-haven gold.

Initial bullish signal was generated on return above psychological $2000 level, with the second weekly close above this barrier to confirm signal and reinforce bullish structure.

Bulls are heading towards key barriers at $2070/74 (Mar 2022 / Aug 2020 tops) with the latter marking the yellow metal’s record high.

Another important signal is expected from the eventual monthly close above $2000, as two previous attempts failed, despite spikes well above the level.

This would set the stage for stronger advance, as weakening fundamentals and bullish technical studies work in favor of such scenario.

However, bulls are very likely to face headwinds on approach to $2070/74 targets which mark significant barriers and also due to overbought conditions on weekly chart.

Expect limited consolidation before fresh push higher if current favorable conditions persist, with bulls to remain intact while the price stays above $2000.

Res: 2048; 2055; 2070; 2074
Sup: 2032; 2013; 2000; 1984

BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill commented on today's UK GDP release at an event hosted by MNI Connect, calling the 0% growth in February "somewhat disappointing from an overall point of view." However, Pill noted that the current data profile is much better than the Monetary Policy Committee's forecasts from the second half of last year.

Pill also addressed inflation concerns, stating that "recent releases serve as a reminder that the precise path of inflation may be bumpier than we expect." Despite this, he anticipates a decline in inflation in the second quarter as last year's significant energy price increases drop out of the annual comparison.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.58; (P) 133.31; (R1) 133.88; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 134.04 will resume the rebound from 129.62 towards 137.90 resistance again. On the downside, break of 130.62 should resume the fall from 137.90 through 129.62 to retest 127.20 low.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9006; (P) 0.9055; (R1) 0.9081; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside at this point. Current down trend from 1.0146 should target 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9058 from 0.9439 at 0.8767, which is close to 0.8756 long term support. Strong support is expected there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, above 0.0973 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is in progress for 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, this fall is still as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal. Sustained break of 0.9058 support turned resistance will be the first sign of medium term bottoming. However, decisive break of 0.8756 will carry larger bearish implications.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2424; (P) 1.2459; (R1) 1.2520; More...

GBP/USD's break of 1.2524 resistance indicates resumption of recent rally and intraday bias is back on the upside. Up trend from 1.0351 should target 1.2759 fibonacci level first. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.2343 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.0351 medium term term bottom (2022 low) is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 (2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759. Sustained break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Further break of 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3095 could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.3895. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.1801 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.