Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9267; (P) 0.9281; (R1) 0.9310; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral first and more sideway trading could be seen. Still, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9325 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.9178 will resume larger down trend. However, break of 0.9325 will bring stronger rally back towards 0.9452 resistance.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish with EUR/CHF staying well inside long term falling channel after multiple rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9377). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Break of 0.9452 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6449; (P) 0.6481; (R1) 0.6511; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is back on the downside with breach of 0.6457 support. Deeper fall would be seen to 0.6413 cluster (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403). Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, above 0.6517 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Break of 0.6413 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and solidify this bearish case. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4000; (P) 1.4033; (R1) 1.4082; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral again with current recovery. On the upside, firm break of 1.4061 resistance will indicate that pullback from 1.4139 has already completed, and bring stronger rally to retest this high. Nevertheless, break of 1.3970 will extend the pullback towards 1.3886 support. Strong rebound should be seen there to preserve the whole rally from 1.3538.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low), with rise from 1.3538 as the second leg. A third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3886 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3886 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1505; (P) 1.1551; (R1) 1.1584; More…

EUR/USD's break of 1.5610 support suggests that recovery from 1.1467 has completed at 1.1655. More importantly, fall from 1.1917 is still in progress. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.1467 first. Firm break there will target 1.1390, and then 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1655 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1328) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3018; (P) 1.3087; (R1) 1.3129; More...

GBP/USD dips further today but it stays above 1.3008 support. Intraday bias remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3247 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.3008 will resume the fall from 1.3787, and target 138.2% projection of 1.3787 to 1.3140 from 1.3725 at 1.2831. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3247 will suggest that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a corrective move already.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3182) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2824) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8006; (P) 0.8036; (R1) 0.8087; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 0.7877 is seen as a leg in the corrective pattern from 0.7828 low. Further rally would be seen to 0.8123 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.7937 minor support will turn bias neutral first. Break of 0.7877 will bring retest of 0.7828 low.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.00% to 3.75% in October, despite the government shutdown leaving them with little additional official data since their September decision.

The minutes showed that the committee is still concerned about the impact of tariffs on inflation. Many participants also noted expectations of core goods inflation to pick up over the coming quarters, as tariffs pass through to firms' prices. On the other hand, a few participants did note that productivity gains from AI and automation may help tamp down cost increases. Still, participants seemed to agree that inflation expectations remained well anchored.

On the labor market, participants did comment on the lack of a jobs report for September and reported relying on private-sector estimates and limited government data. Pointing to the available data, including surveys, participants generally viewed the data as consistent with layoffs and hiring both having remained low, and the job market having softened through September and October, but not sharply.

Participants generally judged that "uncertainty about the economic outlook remained elevated", while still noting that inflation had moved up from earlier in the year and remained elevated. Many participants who voted in favor of lowering rates this meeting "could have also supported maintaining the level of the target range".

Critically, participants expressed strongly differing views about what would be appropriate at their December meeting. While most participants seem to favor reducing the policy rate over time, several of those with that view are unconvinced that would be appropriate in December. Many participants suggested that it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year given their economic outlook.

Key Implications

The key takeaway from this meeting, and the real surprise, is how strongly FOMC members disagree about what is likely in their December meeting. The recent upticks in inflation and the signs that tariffs are going to start passing through to inflation are eroding some members confidence in the balance of risks, and may be pushing out rate cuts further.

The release of the missing jobs data tomorrow will be critical for the FOMC. The potential for the committee to favor holding rates constant in December rests in part on the assessment of the labor market as softening but not sharply deteriorating. This potentially puts the rate outlook in a "bad news is good news" situation – jobs reports for September and October that confirm the labor market is only softening and not severely weakening will strengthen the case made by some FOMC members in September that a pause in December may be appropriate.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.85; (P) 156.52; (R1) 157.82; More...

USD/JPY accelerates higher today and intraday bias stays on the upside for 158.85 key structural resistance, and then 161.8% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 160.17. On the downside, below 155.72 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 restiveness turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

Investor sentiment turned decisively positive in Asian markets today, even as traders continued dialing back expectations for a December Fed rate cut following the hawkish tone in FOMC minutes released overnight. The shift in rate expectations would normally pressure risk assets, but momentum instead swung in the other direction thanks to a powerful catalyst out of the U.S. tech sector.

Chip stocks in Japan and South Korea were the clear standouts, surging after Nvidia’s earnings crushed Wall Street forecasts. The company also issued a stronger-than-expected sales outlook for Q4, providing a fresh jolt of optimism for the AI complex. The rally in semiconductors fed through regional benchmarks, with U.S. futures trading sharply higher ahead of the September jobs report.

Whether the rebound can sustain into the U.S. session remains the big question. If Nvidia-driven enthusiasm holds, investors may once again push AI valuation anxiety into the background—at least temporarily—helping stabilize broader risk sentiment after a shaky week.

All eyes now turn to September non-farm payrolls. The report is expected to show 53k increase in payrolls, a modest improvement from August’s weak 22k print, while unemployment is projected to hold steady at 4.3%. Still, the data come with an important caveat: they are dated.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed it will not publish a full October jobs report due to the now-resolved federal shutdown, and will instead combine October and November payrolls into a single release on December 16—six days after the Fed’s final policy meeting of the year. That means policymakers will go into December lacking two months of labor-market detail.

Against that backdrop, today’s NFP figures may not sway the Fed in any meaningful way. With the minutes revealing resistance to cutting again in December, only an extreme surprise is likely to disrupt the current bias toward a hold. The market has largely absorbed that message, so reaction to the print could be subdued.

In Japan, Yen’s slide remains relentless. Even comments from a BoJ hawk failed to spark support, as the currency was overwhelmed by the strong rally in domestic equities. As USD/JPY vaulted through the 157 handle, officials attempted verbal intervention once again.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara warned that the Yen is experiencing sudden, one-way movements and that authorities are watching for “excessive fluctuations or disorderly moves. But the warnings—repeated frequently over the past week—had no discernible market impact.

For the week so far, Dollar is leading the performance table, followed by Loonie and then Aussie. Yen is the weakest, trailed by Swiss Franc and Kiwi. Euro and Sterling are drifting in the middle of the pack.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 2.91%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.23%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.33%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.21%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.039 at 1.811. Overnight, DOW rose 0.10%. S&P 500 rose 0.38%. NASDAQ rose 0.59%. 10-year yield rose 0.010 to 4.133.

Fed minutes highlight resistance to December cut

The October FOMC minutes revealed a deep policy split, and "strongly differing views", showing officials wrestling with how quickly to bring rates toward neutral. While the majority continues to expect additional easing “over time,” many expressed reluctance to cut again in December, marking a more hawkish tone than markets had priced in. Traders reacted swiftly, pushing the probability of a December rate cut down to roughly 33%, compared with near 50% earlier in the week.

Participants were divided across a wide spectrum of views. Several argued that economic conditions would justify another quarter-point reduction at the next meeting "if the economy evolved about as they expected over the coming intermeeting period."

However, “many participants” judged that keeping rates "unchanged for the rest of the year" would be more "appropriate" under their baseline outlooks. Others supported further easing but emphasized that December may not necessarily be the right moment.

The Committee delivered its second straight cut in October, moving rates to 3.75–4.00%, but Chair Jerome Powell emphasized at the press conference that another move in December was “not a foregone conclusion.” The internal debate documented in the minutes supports that caution and signals stronger resistance to front-loading additional cuts.

BoJ hawkish voice emerges as Koeda presses for further tightening

BoJ board member Junko Koeda delivered one of the clearest hawkish signals from the Bank in recent months, arguing that real interest rates remain “significantly low” and must be moved back toward "a state of equilibrium" to avoid “unintended distortions” later.

With Japan’s output gap hovering around zero and labor market tightness intensifying amid widespread staff shortages, she said in a speech that current economic backdrop justifies continued normalization. In her view, the BoJ should “continue to raise” the policy rate as economic conditions improve, adjusting monetary support in line with the broader recovery in activity and prices.

Koeda stressed that underlying inflation is running near 2%, but achieving the target sustainably requires the Bank to test how firmly "underlying inflation has remained stable or been anchored". That means looking beyond headline data to evaluate whether price momentum can hold as temporary factors fade.

Her message contrasted with recent political pressure urging caution on tightening, reinforcing the divide between policymakers seeking gradual normalization and government voices favoring prolonged accommodation.

PBoC stays on hold, but markets still see easing ahead

China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the sixth straight month today, leaving the one-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%. The decision was widely expected, as policymakers continue to balance the need to support the economy with the desire to avoid fuelling financial instability.

Despite the steady stance, markets remain convinced that monetary easing has merely been delayed, not abandoned. Expectations are building for a “dual cut” — both policy rates and banks’ reserve requirement ratio — in the first quarter of 2026.

A run of softer October activity data has strengthened that view. Exports contracted, retail sales slowed further, and the property-related drag has shown little sign of easing. Combined, these have heightened concerns that Q4 will bring more headwinds rather than signs of stabilization.

Adding to the pressure, new bank lending fell sharply in October as both households and businesses remained reluctant to take on fresh debt amid weak confidence and ongoing US-China trade tensions. Without a meaningful pickup in credit demand, Beijing may soon have little choice but to act more decisively to shore up activity in early 2026.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.85; (P) 156.52; (R1) 157.82; More...

USD/JPY accelerates higher today and intraday bias stays on the upside for 158.85 key structural resistance, and then 161.8% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 160.17. On the downside, below 155.72 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 restiveness turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

Key Highlights

• Ethereum extended losses below $3,500 and $3,200.
• ETH is now trading below a key bearish trend line with resistance at $3,480 on the daily chart.
• Bitcoin price gained bearish momentum and tested $90,000.
• The US nonfarm payrolls could change by 50K in Sep 2025.

Ethereum Technical Analysis

Ethereum remained in a bearish zone after it settled below $3,500. ETH extended losses like Bitcoin and declined below $3,200.

Looking at the daily chart, the price even spiked below $3,000 and settled below the 100-day simple moving average (red). The current price action suggests an increase in bearish pressure. If there is a recovery wave, the price could face resistance at $3,200.

The next major resistance is near the $3,380 level. The main resistance is now forming near the $3,480 zone. There is also a key bearish trend line with resistance at $3,480 on the same chart.

A daily close above the $3,380 resistance zone could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the price may perhaps rise toward the $3,500 level. The next stop for the bulls may perhaps be $3,650.

On the downside, the bulls might be active near $3,000 and $2,940. The main support is now forming near $2,740, below which the price could slide toward $2,550. Any more losses might call for a move toward $2,320.

Looking at Bitcoin, there was a sharp decline below $100,000, and the bears seem to be aiming for more downside in the near term.

Economic Releases

• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 223K, versus 232K previous.
• US nonfarm payrolls for Sep 2025 – Forecast 50K, versus 22K previous.
• US Unemployment Rate for Sep 2025 - Forecast 4.3%, versus 4.3% previous.