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ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a speech, "the ECB will ensure that a phase of high inflation does not feed into inflation expectations, allowing too-high inflation to become entrenched."

"We have acted decisively, raising rates by 200 basis points, and we expect to raise rates further to the levels needed to ensure that inflation returns to our 2% medium-term target in a timely manner," she said.

"But if we want to rebuild our supply capacity and strengthen domestic sources of growth, other policy areas need to refocus. Most importantly, they need to direct investment towards the transitions that will define our future – and the financial sector needs to be able to actively support these transitions," she added.

Full speech here.

WTI oil is consolidating within a narrow range in early Friday’s trading after bears accelerated on Thursday, pushing the price down nearly 4% for the day.

Oil came under fresh pressure on concerns about weakening demand in China, world’s biggest oil importer and further interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve, which would drive the US economy into recession.

Thursday’s strong fall added to negative near-term performance as the WTI is on track for the second consecutive weekly loss, with this week’s drop being around 7.7%.

Thursday’s drop came just ticks ahead of key support at $81.29 (Oct 18 trough, reinforced by 100WMA), where bears faced headwinds.

The action may hold here for limited consolidation, as daily studies are oversold, before resuming lower as overall picture on daily chart is bearish and weekly studies are weakening that adds to negative fundamentals.

Final break through $81.29 pivot would generate fresh bearish signal on completion of a double-top pattern on daily chart ($93.60/$93.72, Oct 10 / Nov 7 peaks respectively) and open way towards targets at $80.37/$80.00 (Fibo 76.4% of $76.29/$93.72 / psychological).

Broken Fibo 61.8% ($82.95) should ideally cap and keep bulls intact, with extended upticks to stay under broken Fibo 50% ($85.00).

Res: 82.61; 82.95; 84.15; 85.00.
Sup: 81.29; 81.00; 80.40; 80.00.

USDCAD is hovering above the 1.3300 mark after several days of trying to break the 1.3225 support level. The short-term bias is neutral to bearish as the RSI is flattening below the neutral threshold of 50; however, the stochastic is showing positive signs as the %K and the %D lines posted a bullish crossover in the oversold zone.

If the market rises, it may encounter opposition between the bearish cross of the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at 1.3530 and the 1.3570 key level. If the market staged a major rally, it might try to break over the 1.3850 resistance level on its way to retesting the 1.3980 high, which is the 29-month high.

If the pair falls below the crucial level of 1.3225, the 200-day SMA around 1.2990 may provide initial support. However, steeper drops might send the pair tumbling towards the 1.2900-1.2950 area, turning the outlook to negative.

All in all, USDCAD is failing to improve the rebound off 1.3225, so any moves below it may continue the bearish correction in the short-term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 165.59; (P) 165.98; (R1) 166.76; More...

GBP/JPY's break of 166.06 minor resistance suggests that correction from 172.11 has completed with three waves down to 163.02. Intraday bias is now mildly on the upside for retesting 172.11 high. However, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 148.93 to 172.11 at 163.25 will bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement at 157.78 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of medium term topping yet. Up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) could still resume through 172.11 high at a later stage. However, firm break of 159.71 support will argue that it's already in correction to the up trend from 123.94, and deeper decline would be seen back towards 148.93 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.69; (P) 145.09; (R1) 145.72; More....

For now, intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays mildly on the upside. Correction from 148.38 might have completed at 142.54, after hitting 38.2% retracement of 133.38 to 148.38 at 142.65. Further rally would be seen to retest 148.38 high. However, on the downside, sustained break of 142.65 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 139.11 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of medium term topping yet. Up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) could still resume through1 48.38 to 149.76 (2014 high). However, break of 137.32 support argue that a medium term correction has already started to correct the whole up trend from 144.42.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8696; (P) 0.8734; (R1) 0.8774; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.8827 will resume the rise from 0.8570 to 0.8869. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 0.9267 high. On the downside, below 0.8689 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8570 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 0.9267 is a down leg inside long term range pattern. Deeper fall could be seen towards 0.8201/8338 support zone. But strong support should be seen there to bring reversal. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8869 resistance will turn favor to the case that such decline is merely a correction in the up trend from 0.8201. That is, further rally would be seen at a later stage through 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5413; (P) 1.5482; (R1) 1.5563; More...

EUR/AUD is extending the corrective pattern from 1.5704 and intraday bias stays neutral. If case of another fall, downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5265) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.5704 will resume larger rise from 1.4281. However, sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper correction towards 1.4965 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9828; (P) 0.9850; (R1) 0.9891; More....

EUR/CHF's break of 0.9839 minor resistance suggests that correction from 0.9953 has completed with three waves down to 0.9720. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 0.9953 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume the rally from 0.9407 to 1.0072 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9970 support turned resistance retains medium term bearishness. That is, while 0.9407 is a medium term bottom, price actions from there would develope into a corrective pattern rather than a reversal. That is, down trend resumption through 0.9407 is favored at a later stage. This will remain the favored case now, as long 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9407 at 1.0072 holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0311; (P) 1.0359; (R1) 1.0412; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.0481 is in progress. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.0092 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 1.0481 will resume the rise from 0.9534 and target 1.0609 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was in place at 0.9534, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Even as a corrective rise, rally from 0.9534 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0566) will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0092 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1766; (P) 1.1862; (R1) 1.1961; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2028 is extending. Further rise is expected as long as 1.1644 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 1.2028 will resume whole rise from 1.0351 to 100% projection of 1.0351 to 1.1494 from 1.1145 at 1.2288. However, sustained break of 1.1644 will bring deeper fall to 1.1145 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom is at least correcting whole down trend from 1.4248 (2021 high). Further rise is expected as long as 1.1145 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 to 1.0351 at 1.2759.