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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1601; (P) 1.1628; (R1) 1.1649; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Current development suggests that fall from 1.1917 might have completed as a three wave correction at 1.1467. Above 1.1655 will target 1.1727 resistance first. Firm break there will solidify this bullish case and bring retest of 1.1917 high. However, break of 1.1561 will revive near term bearishness and target 1.1467 low instead.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1328) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3120; (P) 1.3162; (R1) 1.3216; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3247 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.3008 will resume the fall from 1.3787, and target 138.2% projection of 1.3787 to 1.3140 from 1.3725 at 1.2831). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3247 will suggest that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a corrective move already.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3182) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2824) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7897; (P) 0.7923; (R1) 0.7967; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Outlook is unchanged that corrective rebound from 0.7828 has completed with three waves up to 0.8123. Break of 0.7872 support will pave the way through 0.7828 to resume the larger down trend. Next near term target is 38.2% projection of 0.9200 to 0.7828 from 0.8123 at 0.7599. However, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 0.7990) will mix up the outlook.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.85; (P) 154.31; (R1) 154.99; More...

USD/JPY is still staying in range below 155.03 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen but further rise is in favor with 152.81 support intact. On the upside, break of 155.03 will target 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. Break there will pave the way to 158.85 key structural resistance. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 152.81 support will indicate short term topping, and bring deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 151.30).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 149.37 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

The European Commission’s Autumn forecast showed a firmer growth profile for the Eurozone, with 2025 GDP now expected to rise 1.3%—a notable upgrade from April’s 0.9%. Growth is set to dip only marginally to 1.2% in 2026 before accelerating to 1.4% in 2027. The Commission said early-year momentum, boosted by exports brought forward in anticipation of tariff increases, demonstrated the EU economy’s capacity to absorb external shocks.

On prices, the Commission sees inflation steadily moderating, falling to 2.1% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 after averaging 2.4% last year. It highlighted that inflation is “nearing the ECB target” and that financing conditions have improved meaningfully, creating a more supportive backdrop for consumption and investment.

Overall, the forecast pointed to modest but stable growth as the dominant theme for the coming years. Despite a complex global environment, the Commission believes the Eurozone is positioned for a gradual reacceleration, with cooling inflation and easier financial conditions helping anchor the recovery.

Full EU Autumn 2025 Economic Forecast here.

Key takeaways

• The recent 9% rally in gold (XAU/USD) from US$3,886 to US$4,245 is likely a short-term corrective rebound within a larger medium-term downtrend after the all-time high of US$4,381 on 20 October 2025.
• Rising 10-year US Treasury real yield, which broke above 1.77% and remains supported, increases the opportunity cost of holding gold, constraining its upside momentum.
• Short-term gold is at risk of a bearish breakdown below US$4,036, with key resistance at US$4,155; a break above this level could trigger a squeeze toward US$4,203/4,267.

The recent 9% rally seen in the gold (XAU/USD) from its 28 October 2025 low of US$3,886 to last Thursday, 13 November 2025, high of US$4,245 is likely a minor corrective rebound, aka “dead cat bounce”, within a larger medium-term corrective decline structure that the precious yellow metal is likely still undergoing after gold hit its current all-time high of US$4,381 on 20 October 2025.

Let’s break it down from a technical and intermarket analysis perspective.

10-year US Treasury real yield bullish breakout above 1.78%

Fig. 1: 10-year US Treasury real yield medium-term & major trends as of 17 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The opportunity cost of holding gold, especially for leveraged speculative long positions, has increased in the past four weeks.

The 10-year US Treasury real yield has found medium-term support at 1.66% and broke decisively above its prior medium-term descending channel resistance at 1.77% on 30 October.

It has continued to trade firmly above 1.77% in the past two weeks, which coincides with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

These observations suggest that the 10-year US Treasury real yield has room for further upside within its major downtrend phase that is still intact below the major pivotal resistance of 2.24%, with the next medium-term resistances coming in at 1.87% and 2.09% (see Fig. 1).

A further rise in the 10-year US Treasury real yield raises the opportunity cost of holding gold, which could constrain upside momentum in the yellow metal.

Next, we outline the short-term trajectory for gold (XAU/USD) over the next 1 to 3 days, along with the key technical elements and levels to monitor.

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – At risk of bearish breakdown below US$4,036

Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 17 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Short-term pivotal resistance for gold (XAU/USD) stands at US$4,155, and a break below US$4,036 is likely to unleash the second leg of its medium-term corrective decline phase to expose the next intermediate supports at US$3,980 and US$3,895/3,864 in the first step (see Fig. 2).

Key elements

• Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a bearish reversal on last Friday, 14 November, and ended the week with a weekly bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern.
• Before the bearish reversal occurred last Friday, the hourly RSI momentum indicator of gold (XAU/USD) had traced out a bearish divergence condition at its overbought region (above the 70 level) on Thursday, 13 November.
• These observations indicate that the 9% rally in gold (XAU/USD) from the 28 October 2025 low to the 13 November 2025 high lacks the momentum needed to trigger a sustained bullish impulsive move.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

On the other hand, a clearance above US$4,155 key resistance invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at US$4,203 and US$4,267.

As the XAU/USD chart shows, last week gold prices fell sharply, interrupting the previous upward trend. This decline was driven by two main factors:

→ End of the US government shutdown. This is believed to have reduced short-term economic risks and lessened demand for gold as a “safe-haven” asset.

→ Hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, which lowered market expectations for rate cuts. This pushed up US Treasury yields, traditionally putting downward pressure on non-yielding assets like gold.

This week, the market is awaiting a wave of delayed US economic reports that were postponed during the shutdown, including:

→ Labour market data (Non-Farm Payrolls)

→ Inflation data (CPI)

These releases are expected to give traders greater clarity on the future trajectory of Fed interest rates.

Technical Analysis of XAU/USD

From a technical perspective, the price is currently trading at the intersection of two key lines:

→ Resistance line from the upper boundary of the descending channel originating at the all-time high. Buyers attempted to break through this level last week but were unsuccessful.

→ Support line from the lower boundary of the ascending channel, in place since early autumn.

Given the above, it is reasonable to suggest that:

→ the market is in a balanced position, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach;

→ a breakout from the symmetrical triangle could indicate the direction of the next significant move in gold prices.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Overview

The crypto market cap has lost 9.5% over the past seven days. The decline took place on weekdays last week, with the level stabilising around $3.25 trillion over the weekend. Among altcoins, the standout is the unsinkable Zcash at $700, nearing its highs, and weak Solana and Ethereum, which have lost 45% and 40% from their August and September highs, respectively.

The crypto sentiment index recorded values of 10 on Saturday and Sunday, marking a return to the lows of late February this year. Although this was a good point to buy on the rebound in the following days, the downward trend continued for almost a month and a half. Market dynamics since the beginning of October have been reminiscent of those seen at the end of January. This is good news for short-term buyers but may cause medium-term buyers to stay on the sidelines for a while.

Bitcoin slipped below $93K during illiquid trading early in the day, but found impressive buyer interest there, rising to $95.6K. Whether this is a short-term rebound or the beginning of a recovery can only be determined after it consolidates above $100,000. There is a high chance that the strategy of selling on rebounds will remain prevalent.

News Background

Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US continue for the third week in a row. According to SoSoValue, net outflows from spot BTC ETFs totalled $1.11 billion last week, slightly lower than the previous week’s outflows, resulting in a total inflow of $58.85 billion into these products since January 2024.

Net outflows from spot Ethereum ETFs in the US continue for the second week in a row, amounting to $728.6 million. The cumulative net inflow since the launch of ETFs in July 2024 has fallen to $13.13 billion.

Inflows into the recently launched Solana spot ETFs in the US have continued for the third consecutive week, totalling $382.1 million. However, during this time, the price has fallen by a third, reinforcing the idea that entering traditional financial markets does not necessarily promise price growth.

Long-term Ethereum holders have increased their sales to 45,000 ETH per day, the highest level since February 2021, according to Glassnode. Long-term Bitcoin holders are also actively selling their holdings. According to CryptoQuant, they have dumped 815,000 BTC on the market over the past month.

Miner Bitfarms has announced a gradual phase-out of Bitcoin mining and a transition to developing infrastructure for artificial intelligence. The company reported a net loss of $46 million in its third-quarter report.

The USD/JPY pair advanced to 154.72 on Monday, trading near its highest levels since February, despite the release of Japanese economic data that surpassed forecasts.

Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, a reversal from the 0.6% growth recorded in Q2. However, this outcome was better than the 0.6% decline anticipated by economists.

The yen's weakness persists primarily due to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's public call for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to maintain its ultra-low interest rate policy. The government believes this accommodative stance is essential to underpin economic growth and support a gradual rise in inflation.

This puts the government at odds with the central bank. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a more balanced tone, noting that consumption remains stable amid rising household incomes and a tight labour market. He observed that core inflation is steadily approaching the 2% target, a development that would justify an early policy tightening.

This creates a visible and rare public imbalance between the dovish government's fiscal priorities and the central bank's potential inclination towards monetary normalisation.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY completed a growth wave to 155.00 and a subsequent correction to 153.63. The pair is now forming a tight consolidation range around this support level. An upward breakout from this range is expected to initiate the next leg of the rally, targeting 155.15 as an initial objective. This bullish scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is positioned above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating sustained positive momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair reached a local high at 155.00 and completed a corrective structure to 153.63. A fresh growth impulse to 154.66 has since been completed, forming a new compact consolidation range. An upward breakout from this range is anticipated, opening the path for a move towards a minimum target of 155.75. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook. Its signal line is above 50 and rising sharply towards 80, reflecting strong short-term bullish momentum.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues to climb, driven by a fundamental divergence between a dovish Japanese government and the BoJ, which is cautiously laying the groundwork for a future rate hike. Technically, the structure remains firmly bullish. The completion of the recent correction suggests the pair is poised for further gains, with immediate targets at 155.15 and 155.75.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

AUD/USD started a fresh increase above 0.6500 and 0.6550. NZD/USD is also rising and might aim for more gains above 0.5700.

Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a decent increase above 0.6500 against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6510 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is consolidating gains above the 0.5645 pivot level.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.5655 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 0.6500. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear 0.6550 to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

There was a close above 0.6500 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested 0.6580. A high was formed near 0.6580 and the pair recently started a short-term downside correction. There was a minor decline below 0.6550.

There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6463 swing low to the 0.6580 high. On the downside, initial support is near a key bullish trend line at 0.6510 and the 61.8% Fib retracement.

The next area of interest could be 0.6490. If there is a downside break below 0.6490, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6465 zone. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6420.

On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6540 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The first major hurdle for the bulls might be 0.6550. An upside break above 0.6550 might send the pair further higher. The next stop is near 0.6580. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward 0.6620.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 0.5600. The New Zealand Dollar broke the 0.5650 barrier to start the recent rally against the US Dollar.

The pair settled above 0.5650 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested 0.5690 and is currently consolidating gains. There was a minor pullback below 0.5670 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.5606 swing low to the 0.5691 high.

The NZD/USD chart suggests that the RSI is now below 50. On the downside, immediate support is near the 0.5655 level and a major bullish trend line. The first key zone for the bulls sits at 0.5645 and the 50% Fib retracement.

The next key level is 0.5625. If there is a downside break below 0.5625, the pair might slide toward 0.5605. Any more losses could lead NZD/USD into a bearish zone to 0.5550.

On the upside, the pair might struggle near 0.5670. The next major resistance is near the 0.5690 level. A clear move above 0.5690 might even push the pair toward 0.5740. Any more gains might clear the path for a move toward the 0.5800 handle in the coming days.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.