Sample Category Title

New Zealand’s services sector remained under heavy strain in October, with the BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index inching up from 48.3 to 48.7 but still locked firmly in contraction.Activity, employment, and new orders all hovered below 50, extending the sector’s downturn to 20 straight months and keeping the headline reading well below the long-term average of 52.8.

Businesses cited weak demand as the principal drag, linking the slowdown to reduced household spending, ongoing cost-of-living pressures, and diminished confidence. While the proportion of negative comments fell from 58.0% to 54.1%, responses still pointed to a market struggling with inconsistent sales flows and hesitant customers. The continued decline in new orders signals that firms are not yet seeing a meaningful turn in forward demand.

Operating costs, competitive intensity, workflow delays, and cancelled projects are adding further strain, tightening cashflow and limiting the ability of firms to absorb volatility.

Full NZ BNZ PSI release here.

It was a relatively quiet week in the markets, although the mid-week end of the U.S. government shutdown helped drive U.S. equities to fresh record highs and pushed USD/JPY briefly above 155. Despite the relief, concerns about stretched valuations — especially in AI-related stocks — continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

Toward the end of the week, several Federal Reserve policymakers warned that U.S. interest rates may not fall as quickly as many had hoped. This shift in expectations triggered selling across equities and other risk assets. The probability of a rate cut after the Fed’s December meeting has now dropped to around 50%, down sharply from about 67% a week ago and nearly 95% a month ago.

The shutdown has also delayed the release of key U.S. economic data, leaving markets with fewer important indicators to digest. However, traders showed renewed interest in safe havens, with gold surging sharply early in the week. In contrast, Bitcoin dropped below $100,000 as investors reduced exposure to high-risk assets.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

The Dow Index hit new highs last week but ended back below its 10-day moving average as investors stayed cautious about high valuations. In the current sentiment, focusing on selling opportunities remains the preferred short-term approach, though traders should avoid selling into weakness, as a major crash seems unlikely without significantly negative news. Resistance levels are at 47,500, 48,000, 48,500, and 49,000, while support lies at 46,500, 46,000, 45,500, 45,000, and 44,500.

Japanese Stocks

The Nikkei 225 traded sideways last week, as yen weakness helped support prices, but falling U.S. stocks limited gains. The market is still waiting for the new Japanese prime minister to announce an economic stimulus package, which could drive a move to new highs. For now, upward momentum has stalled, and technical indicators are pointing slightly lower, so a short-term test to the downside is likely unless stimulus is confirmed. Resistance is at 51,500円, 52,000円, and 53,000円, while support is at 50,000円, 49,000円, 48,500円, and 47,000円.

USD/JPY

Despite ongoing fears of intervention to support the yen, USD/JPY pushed higher last week as traders expect any Bank of Japan rate hike to be delayed until January. The 155 level remains key, and reduced market risk appetite led to some selling toward the end of the week. The overall uptrend is still intact, supported by higher U.S. interest rates compared to Japan, but further gains may be difficult, making a 153–155 range-trading strategy the most suitable for now. Resistance is at 155, 156, and 157, while support is at 153.5, 153, and 151.5.

Gold

Gold had a very strong start to last week, rising sharply as safe-haven demand increased. However, as the probability of a U.S. rate cut next month fell, some of those gains were trimmed toward the end of the week. The chart has now turned positive, and buying remains the preferred strategy as long as the market stays above $4,000. Resistance is at $4,200, $4,250, and $4,350, while support is at $4,050, $4,000, and $3,925.

Crude Oil

WTI remained under pressure last week after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned about rising oversupply, while ongoing concerns over U.S. economic growth also kept prices capped. With the 10-day moving average still trending lower, selling remains the preferred strategy this week. Key chart levels are unchanged, with resistance at $65, $66.50, $70, and $75, and support at $55 and $50.

Bitcoin

As risky assets sold off late last week, Bitcoin fell below the key $100,000 level, triggering a sharp decline. With little support below this level, the risk of further falls is high, and many speculators are exiting positions. As long as Bitcoin stays under $100,000, the market is likely to remain weak, so selling remains the preferred strategy. Resistance is at $100,000, $106,000, and $116,000, while support is at $95,000, $90,000, and $85,000.

This Week’s Focus

• Monday: Japan GDP and Industrial Production, U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
• Tuesday: Australia RBA Meeting Minutes, U.S. Industrial Production
• Wednesday Japan Trade Balance, U.K. CPI and PPI, E.U. CPI, U.S. Building Permits and FOMC Meeting Minutes
• Thursday: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing and Existing Home Sales
• Friday: Japan National CPI, U.K. Retail Sales and S&P Global Manufacturing, E.U. HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Volatility could rise this week as traders look for clues on possible rate cuts from Fed speeches and the release of FOMC meeting minutes. In Japan, GDP and CPI data will be important as the BoJ decides whether to raise rates, and the weak yen remains in focus. With the U.S. government shutdown now over, stock and risk markets are hoping for positive news to avoid more selling in a nervous market.
Don’t Miss Titan FX’s Black Friday Offer

With volatility likely to rise, this is a great time to take advantage of increased trading opportunities in FX and gold. For five days only, Titan FX is offering USD 3.99 cashback per lot on all FX and gold trades with no limits. From November 24–28, 2025, all live trading accounts are eligible — just register via your Client Cabinet, deposit at least USD 500, and start trading. The more you trade, the more cashback you earn.

Ethereum: ⬆️ Buy

•  Ethereum reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 3600.00

Ethereum cryptocurrency recently reversed from the support area between the support level 3090.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (C) at the start of November), 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from April and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous medium-term ABC correction (2).

Given the strength of the support level 3090.00, Ethereum cryptocurrency can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 3600.00.

EURCHF: ⬆️ Buy

• EURCHF reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9300

EURCHF currency pair recently reversed from the support zone between the long-term support level 0.9210 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of 2024) and the lower weekly Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous short-term impulse wave (iii).

Given the strength of the support level 0.9210 and the bearish Swiss franc sentiment seen today, EURCHF currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.9300.

Last week delivered what should have been a moment of relief for global markets: the US finally ended its historic government shutdown, clearing the way for normal economic data flow to resume. Yet instead of sparking a rally, the reopening brought little comfort.

U.S. assets struggled across the board. Equities came under pressure as investors reassessed the risks around Fed policy direction and stretched valuations in key growth sectors. Yields moved higher but offered no support to Dollar, which weakened broadly despite fading expectations of near-term Fed easing. Even the traditional safe-haven flows that typically favor the greenback failed to materialize in a meaningful way.

Currency markets delivered their own twist. Yen, often the first beneficiary of a risk-off wave, ended the week as the worst performer as traders pushed out expectations for a BoJ rate hike. Sterling suffered as well, pressured by weak economic data and growing conviction that the BoE would cut rates in December.

By contrast, Swiss Franc surged on a mix of safe-haven demand and positive trade developments. Australian and New Zealand Dollars found some early support but struggled to extend gains as sentiment darkened. Euro and Canadian Dollar sat in the middle of the pack.

Is ‘Sell America’ Returning, or Just a Pause Before the Data Storm?

The past week delivered an unusual alignment across U.S. assets: stocks, Treasuries, and Dollar all came under pressure at the same time. That pattern immediately drew comparisons to April, when markets reacted violently to President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement, triggering the now-famous “Sell America” trade. While last week’s moves were nowhere near that magnitude, the directional similarity was difficult to ignore.

Still, calling it a revival of the same theme may be premature. Market positioning seems far more cautious than actively bearish. The historic government shutdown kept investors blind to key economic signals for weeks. With the data blackout now lifted, traders appear reluctant to make big commitments until a clearer macro picture emerges. The pullback in U.S. assets may simply reflect a desire to step aside before the next wave of information hits.

The coming week could prove decisive. With the government now reopened, the pipeline of U.S. economic releases is about to restart — and after several weeks of silence, the impact could be amplified. Volatility, which has softened noticeably during the shutdown, is likely to climb as markets digest a heavy flow of indicators that will reset expectations for both growth and inflation.

What those data reveal will determine whether last week’s moves were a temporary misalignment or the early stages of a more structural shift. A resilient economy with stable job growth could revive confidence in U.S. assets. A deteriorating backdrop could force a deeper repricing. Anything in between would keep traders directionally cautious but tactically reactive.

For now, the only certainty is uncertainty itself. Markets briefly lost their footing last week, and the synchronized weakness across U.S. stocks, bonds, and Dollar has raised legitimate questions about investor conviction. Whether that hesitation evolves into a broader “Sell America” theme could depend entirely on what the long-delayed data now reveal.

Fed Cut Odds Crumble, Yields Rebound

Expectations for a December Fed rate cut shifted sharply last week after a set of remarks from FOMC officials signaled that easing is far from guaranteed. What had looked like a near-certainty just a month ago is now a coin toss: market odds for a December cut have fallen to 44.4%, down from 66.9% a week earlier and 94.2% a month ago.

Some economists reinforced that view by noting that GDP prior to the shutdown was tracking at 3.5% to 4%, a pace more consistent with overheating than with urgency for additional stimulus. Financial conditions also remain unusually easy, leaving little justification for further policy accommodation. Lowering funding costs for banks at this stage risks could do more harm than good by reigniting price pressures just as progress toward 2% inflation remains uneven.

The repricing in expectations helped drive a meaningful move in Treasuries. 10-year yield jumped sharply on Friday, closing at 4.148. But for now, the rebound from 3.947 short term bottom is still viewed as a corrective move within the broader decline from 4.629.

Technically, resistance near 4.200 should form a formidable cap, with 4.205 support turned resistance and 38.2% retracement of 4.629 to 3.947 at 4.207. Break of 4.056 support will suggest that the corrective bounce has completed, and bring retest of 3.947 low.

However, decisive break above 4.200 would suggest the decline from 4.629 has run its course, and open way to 61.8% retracement at 4.368.

Tech Jitters Persist, But Dip Buyers Defend Key Support

US equities spent latter part of last week struggling under the weight of shifting Fed expectations and the re-emergence of AI valuation concerns. Yet, just as in the prior week, buyers stepped in late on Friday, hinting that dip-buying appetite has not fully disappeared. NASDAQ closed at 22,900.58 after plunging to 22,436.79, a notable recovery given the earlier capitulation.

Technically, NASDAQ is still holding the line where it matters most. It remains above its 55 Day EMA (now at 22,683.37), and more importantly, above key structural support at 22,193.07. As long as these levels hold, the broader uptrend remains intact, and the path toward a fresh record high stays open.

However, D MACD continues to show bearish divergence, which adds uncertainty about the strength of the underlying trend. Decisive break of 22,193.07 will argue that it's at least correcting the rise from 14,784.03. In this case, deeper fall would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 14,784.03 to 24,019.99 at 20,491.85.

DOW surged to a new record high of 48,435.57 mid-week, only to reverse sharply and finish at 47,147.48. Nevertheless, the broader technical picture remains bullish while support at 46,495.62 intact. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 36,611.78 to 44,885.83 from 43,340.68 will pave the way to 50k psychological level, and possibly further to 100% projection at 51,614.73.

Still, D MACD is showing bearish divergence condition, hinting that upward momentum is waning. Firm break of 46,495.62 support would confirm that a deeper correction is underway, sending the index back toward 44,885.83 resistance turned support.

Dollar Struggles Despite Shift in Fed Pricing

Dollar Index gyrated lower last week, failing to draw support from fading expectations of a December Fed rate cut, firmer Treasury yields, or the mild risk aversion that built into the Friday close.

Technically, with 98.56 support still intact, corrective rise from 96.21 short-term bottom remains in play. But any further upside should meet heavy resistance at 38.2% retracement of 110.17 to 96.21 at 101.54. On the downside, firm break of 98.56 would indicate that the bounce has already run its course, setting up a retest of the 96.21 low.

CHF/JPY Blasts to New Record

CHF/JPY exploded to new record highs last week, extending its already-impressive rally. The cross gained 2.11% and holds the number one position in the Top Movers chart.

Half of the move was driven by Swiss Franc strength as Switzerland and the U.S. reached a near-final framework to reduce tariffs on Swiss imports from 39% to 15%. This immediately leveled Switzerland with the EU’s trade treatment. Part of the also agreement includes a substantial Swiss pledge: USD 200B in investment into the U.S. by 2028, focused on pharmaceuticals, medical devices, aerospace and gold production.

Around 40% of Switzerland’s exports will benefit directly from the lower tariff regime. Officials said implementation could occur within “days, weeks,” once U.S. customs systems are updated.

Another half of the move was extended Yen weakness. The Japanese currency was weighed down broadly by increasingly explicit political pressure on the BoJ to delay rate hikes. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi emphasized to parliament that Japan’s current inflation is driven primarily by food prices — the wrong kind of inflation — and warned of renewed deflation risks if monetary policy is tightened prematurely.

Economic Revitalization Minister Minoru Kiuchi captured the logic succinctly. Although the government watches Yen movements closely, he noted that Yen-based import prices have fallen for eight consecutive months, blunting the pass-through of currency weakness. Data later confirmed a ninth negative reading at -1.5% yoy. As long as Yen's decline remains measured and orderly, Tokyo is clearly willing to tolerate further weakness. Growth from monetary policy support clearly takes priority over currency strength.

Against that backdrop, CHF/JPY uptrend has powerful fundamental backing. Technically, the immediate focus is 100% projection of 173.06 to 186.02 from 183.95 at 196.91, where resistance could emerge due to bearish divergence condition in D MACD. But in any case, outlook will stay bullish as long as 189.07 support holds. Decisive break of 196.91 could invalidate the bearish divergence and unlock 161.8% projection at 204.91 as the next target.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD's rebound from 1.1467 extended higher last week retreated after hitting 1.1655. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Fall from 1.1917 might have completed as a three wave correction at 1.1467. Above 1.1655 will target 1.1727 resistance first. Firm break there will solidify this bullish case and bring retest of 1.1917 high. However, break of 1.1561 will revive near term bearishness and target 1.1467 low instead.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1306) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.

EUR/USD's rebound from 1.1467 extended higher last week retreated after hitting 1.1655. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Fall from 1.1917 might have completed as a three wave correction at 1.1467. Above 1.1655 will target 1.1727 resistance first. Firm break there will solidify this bullish case and bring retest of 1.1917 high. However, break of 1.1561 will revive near term bearishness and target 1.1467 low instead.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1306) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.

USD/JPY edged higher again last week as rise from 139.87 extended, but retreated after hitting 155.03. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 155.03 will target 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. Break there will pave the way to 158.85 key structural resistance. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 152.81 support will indicate short term topping, and bring deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 151.05).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 149.37 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

In the long term picture, there is no sign that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. But then, firm break of 161.94 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.

GBP/USD stayed in consolidations above 1.3008 last week and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3247 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.3008 will resume the fall from 1.3787, and target 138.2% projection of 1.3787 to 1.3140 from 1.3725 at 1.2831). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3247 will suggest that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a corrective move already.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3185) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2824) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.4248/4480 resistance holds (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480), the long term outlook will remain bearish. That is, price actions from 1.3051 are seen as a corrective pattern to down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4248/4480 will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.

USD/CHF's fall from 0.8123 accelerated to as low as 0.7877 last week but recovered ahead of 0.7872 support. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Current development suggests that corrective rebound from 0.7828 has completed with three waves up to 0.8123. Break of 0.7872 support will pave the way through 0.7828 to resume the larger down trend. Next near term target is 38.2% projection of 0.9200 to 0.7828 from 0.8123 at 0.7599. However, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 0.7997) will mix up the outlook.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.