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Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.10; (P) 154.56; (R1) 154.98; More...

Intraday bias in bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen below 155.03 temporary top. Further rally is expected as long as 152.81 support holds. Above 155.03 will resume the rise from 139.87 to 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. Firm break there will pave the way to 158.86 key structural resistance. However, firm break of 152.81 will confirm short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 149.37 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7894; (P) 0.7944; (R1) 0.7979; More…

USD/CHF's fall from 0.8123 accelerates lower today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Decisive break of 0.7872 support will argue that larger down trend is ready to resume. Break of 0.7828 will target 38.2% projection of 0.9200 to 0.7828 from 0.8123 at 0.7599. On the upside, above 0.7941 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and bring more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Risk aversion intensified with markets once again gripped by tech-led weakness. Nvidia slumped in premarket trading, dragging the broader semiconductor and AI complex lower and reinforcing concerns that the sector’s valuation reset still has further to run. The risk-off tone spilled over into cryptocurrencies, where Bitcoin dropped more than 2% and looked increasingly vulnerable to a break below the 95k level.

In currencies, Swiss Franc’s rally accelerated as safe-haven inflows picked up pace. For the first time this week, the depth of risk aversion was also enough to lift Yen, which finally staged a rebound after spending days pinned at the bottom of the performance table on expectations of delayed BoJ tightening. By contrast, Sterling and Aussie were among the weakest performers, while Dollar also traded with a soft bias. Euro and Loonie held to the middle of the pack.

A key question for the final hours is whether tech stocks can deliver another bout of late-session short covering, similar to last Friday’s dramatic reversal. But with sentiment deteriorating quickly and positioning still heavy in AI-linked names, the risk of a deeper, more disorderly selloff cannot be ruled out.

In the UK, reports that the Office for Budget Responsibility has upgraded its fiscal forecasts trigged some volatility. Sources suggested that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is now unlikely to raise income taxes in this month’s Budget, given the improved outlook. The Treasury declined to comment, but markets reacted swiftly.

Gilt yields jumped sharply on the news as government bond prices fell, reflecting expectations of looser fiscal constraints. Sterling attempted a brief recovery but failed to build momentum, weighed by softer risk appetite and ongoing speculation that the BoE could cut rates as early as next month.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -1.74%. DAX is down -1.61%. CAC is down -1.47%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.079 at 4.520. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.001 at 2.691. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -1.77%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.85%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.97%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.65%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.011 to 1.702.

EU swings back to surplus, powered by chemicals and US trade

The Eurozone posted a solid EUR 19.4B trade surplus in September, supported by broad rise in goods exports. Outbound shipments increased 7.7% yoy to EUR 256.6B, outpacing the 5.3% yoy rise in imports.

The broader EU trade balance also swung sharply back into surplus, moving from a EUR -4.5B deficit in August to a EUR 16.3B surplus in September. The turnaround was driven primarily by a strong rebound in the chemicals sector, where the surplus jumped from EUR 15.4B to EUR 26.9B.

On a partner basis, EU shipments to the US were a major driver, rising 15.4% yoy to EUR 53.1B. Imports from the U.S. grew a solid 12.5%, leaving a wider EUR 22.2B surplus. Trade with Switzerland was also strong: exports increased 13.4% and imports 10.6%, taking the bilateral surplus to EUR 6.7B. In contrast, exports to China fell -2.5% yoy, while imports rose 3.6%, pushing the deficit with China deeper to EUR -33.1B. Trade flows with the UK were mixed, as exports rose 2.8% yoy, while imports dipped -0.3%, widening the surplus to EUR 16.1B.

China industrial production slows to 4.9% yoy in October, investment contraction deepens

China’s October activity data pointed to a loss of momentum, with industrial production rising 4.9% yoy, down from September’s 6.5% yoy and below expectations of 5.6%. It marks the weakest annual pace since August 2024.

Retail sales also slowed, rising 2.9% yoy compared with 3.0% in September, though slightly outperforming expectations of 2.7% yoy. Still, it was the slowest pace since August last year, underscoring persistently cautious household demand. Excluding autos, consumer goods retail sales rose a firmer 4.0%, suggesting pockets of resilience but not enough to anchor a broad consumption recovery.

More concerning was the continued drag from investment: fixed asset investment fell -1.7% ytd yoy, deteriorating from -0.5% and missing expectations of -0.7%. Private-sector investment remained under heavy pressure, dropping -4.5%, underscoring structural weakness in confidence, property-linked spillovers, and limited risk appetite.

New Zealand BNZ PMI at 51.4 as orders hit three-year high

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector showed further improvement in October, with BusinessNZ PMI rising from 50.1 to 51.4, marking a fourth straight month above 50. While still below the long-term average of 52.4, the sector is now experiencing its most sustained period of expansion in three years, hinting that the worst of the downturn may be behind it.

The details were encouraging: production improved from 50.5 to 52.0. New orders jumped from 50.5 to 54.9, the strongest pace since August 2022 and a key sign that demand conditions are firming. Employment remained in contraction at 48.1, up from 47.7, but even that component showed stabilization after six months of declines.

BusinessNZ’s Catherine Beard said October brought “more signs of life” after months of stagnation. The share of negative respondent comments fell from 60.2% to 54.1%, with many firms reporting stronger orders, seasonal demand, new customers, and productivity gains driven by process improvements and automation.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7894; (P) 0.7944; (R1) 0.7979; More…

USD/CHF's fall from 0.8123 accelerates lower today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Decisive break of 0.7872 support will argue that larger down trend is ready to resume. Break of 0.7828 will target 38.2% projection of 0.9200 to 0.7828 from 0.8123 at 0.7599. On the upside, above 0.7941 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and bring more consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has fallen by more than 6% over the last day to $3.26 trillion, its lowest level since early July. The crypto market has set lower local lows, confirming the downward trend. Since its peak on 7 October, the crypto market capitalisation has fallen by more than $1 trillion, or 24%, which technically means the beginning of a bear market. If the rules of stocks apply here, then we should prepare for a further decline of approximately 20%, or around $1 trillion.

Bitcoin fell below $97K, losing nearly 6% in the last 24 hours. Under continuous pressure since 11 November, it has already lost over 11%, falling back to levels last seen in May. A bearish signal — the death cross — is already looming over the first cryptocurrency. This signal is effective in classic markets, but in recent times, instead of a decline, it has been followed by growth, as the previous strong sell-off has been exhausted. The opposite is also true: the golden cross occurred during a period close to the local peak.

News Background

Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) have accelerated profit-taking, according to Glassnode. According to CryptoQuant, LTHs have sold about 815,000 BTC over the past 30 days, a record high since January 2024.

Taiwanese authorities are exploring the possibility of establishing a strategic cryptocurrency reserve, similar to those in the US, which could include cryptocurrency confiscated by law enforcement agencies during criminal investigations.

Canary Capital has launched the first XRP-based spot ETF in the US. Trading in the XRP ETF under the ticker XRPC began on Nasdaq on 13 November. XRP is one of the most common and widely used digital assets in the world, according to Canary Capital.

Winklevoss Capital, the fund founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, has created Cypherpunk, investing over $50 million in it. Cypherpunk will accumulate reserves in the private cryptocurrency Zcash (ZEC).

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has prepared a draft guide on the classification of crypto assets based on the Howey test. The agency wants to clarify once and for all which digital assets are considered securities, and which are commodities, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said.

For the first time in history, no media outlet, expert, or blogger has declared Bitcoin dead in the past year, according to experts from tracking services 99Bitcoins and BitBo.

BTCUSD holds in a steep descend for the fourth consecutive, with strong acceleration lower on Thursday / early Friday, being sparked by fresh sales of risky assets.

Traders remain concerned about lack of economic data following the longest US government shutdown in history and moved into risk-off mode, until getting clearer picture.

Bitcoin broke through key supports at 100340 and 100K (50% of 74389/126299 rally / psychological) and extended below June 22 low (98182), to test levels under 96K and hit the lowest since early May.

Bears eye next targets at 94219 (Fibo 61.8%) and 93203 (top of ascending weekly Ichimoku cloud, though price adjustment to be anticipated as daily studies are getting oversold.

The latest drop completed a bearish failure swing pattern on daily chart, adding to negative signals from firmly bearish daily technical studies (14-d descends deep into negative territory/ MA’s in full bearish setup, with converging 55/200DMA’s on track to form death-cross.

Broken supports at 101370 and 100K (55WMA / psychological) reverted to resistances which should ideally cap upticks, with close below these levels to keep bears intact.

Res: 98870; 100000; 101370; 102080
Sup: 95800; 94219; 93203; 92800

The Eurozone posted a solid EUR 19.4B trade surplus in September, supported by broad rise in goods exports. Outbound shipments increased 7.7% yoy to EUR 256.6B, outpacing the 5.3% yoy rise in imports.

The broader EU trade balance also swung sharply back into surplus, moving from a EUR -4.5B deficit in August to a EUR 16.3B surplus in September. The turnaround was driven primarily by a strong rebound in the chemicals sector, where the surplus jumped from EUR 15.4B to EUR 26.9B.

On a partner basis, EU shipments to the US were a major driver, rising 15.4% yoy to EUR 53.1B. Imports from the U.S. grew a solid 12.5%, leaving a wider EUR 22.2B surplus. Trade with Switzerland was also strong: exports increased 13.4% and imports 10.6%, taking the bilateral surplus to EUR 6.7B. In contrast, exports to China fell -2.5% yoy, while imports rose 3.6%, pushing the deficit with China deeper to EUR -33.1B. Trade flows with the UK were mixed, as exports rose 2.8% yoy, while imports dipped -0.3%, widening the surplus to EUR 16.1B.

Full Eurozone trade balance release here.

The GBP/USD pair declined to 1.3149 on Friday, hovering near a seven-month low. The sell-off was triggered by the government’s abrupt abandonment of plans to raise income tax rates ahead of the Autumn Statement on 26 November.

According to the Financial Times, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have scrapped the previously debated increases to basic and higher tax rates. Instead, they will seek more indirect measures to address a budget deficit estimated at £30 billion.

This policy reversal has sparked significant market anxiety over the new cabinet’s fiscal discipline and long-term strategy, leading to a broad sell-off in sterling-denominated assets and exerting upward pressure on government bond yields.

Moreover, recent macroeconomic data have been weak, further compounding the political unease. Third-quarter economic growth was muted, with monthly GDP contracting in September. This follows earlier reports showing unemployment rising to a four-year high and wage growth slowing to its weakest pace since early 2022. Consequently, market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut in December have intensified.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD has completed a corrective wave at 1.3215. A decline towards 1.3062 is anticipated, likely to be followed by a minor rebound to 1.3131. This level is expected to form resistance within a new consolidation range. A subsequent downward breakout from this range would signal a resumption of the primary downtrend, opening the path towards 1.2985, with a further potential decline to at least 1.2915. This bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator. Its signal line, while above zero, has diverged bearishly from its histogram, suggesting the recent corrective bounce has ended and a new downward impulse is forming.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.3153. We expect an initial decline to 1.3090, followed by a technical retracement to retest the 1.3153 level from below. This retest is likely to present a selling opportunity before the downtrend extends towards 1.3013. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view. Its signal line is deep in oversold territory at the 20 level, which, rather than suggesting a rebound, typically indicates sustained downward momentum in a strong trend.

Conclusion

The pound remains under heavy pressure, caught between political missteps that undermine fiscal credibility and a deteriorating economic backdrop that points to monetary easing. Technically, the pair maintains a clear bearish structure. Any near-term stability is likely to prove temporary, with the path of least resistance pointing towards a test of support at 1.2985 and potentially 1.2915.

As the XNG/USD chart shows today, natural gas prices are trading close to the March peak, which is the highest level since December 2022.

According to Trading Economics, the rise in gas prices has been driven by several factors:

→ Despite short-term warming in the US, weather models point to colder conditions ahead.

→ LNG exports remain elevated, as European buyers continue seeking alternatives to Russian gas. In November, average shipments across the eight major US terminals reached 17.8 billion cubic feet per day, exceeding the previous record of 16.7 billion in October.

→ The International Energy Agency expects global demand for oil and gas to continue rising until 2050, reflecting uncertainties surrounding the pace of the energy transition.

At the same time, chart analysis suggests that the upside potential may be limited.

Technical Analysis of XNG/USD

Price action is approaching a major resistance area, formed by:

• → the upper boundary of the channel, widened after the bullish breakout in late October;
• → the psychological level of $5.000 per MMBtu;
• → the previously mentioned March high.

Meanwhile, the more than 50% rally since early autumn has been significant, and long-position holders may be tempted to take profits. Therefore, if the price attempts to break above these resistance levels, it may result in a false bullish breakout (a buyer’s trap) followed by a pullback.

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The British pound posted a solid advance yesterday, despite UK GDP data coming in weaker than expected. The economy showed virtually no growth, underscoring persistent pressure on domestic demand and the manufacturing sector. However, the market appears to have used the release as an opportunity to cover short positions after a prolonged decline, which supported the pound in both major pairs.

Another factor behind the gains in GBP/JPY and GBP/USD may have been the end of the longest government shutdown in US history. The reopening of federal agencies removed some of the risks linked to delays in economic releases and uncertainty surrounding the budget process. Investors are assessing the consequences of the 43-day halt in US government operations, which has already shaved nearly 1.5 percentage points off GDP growth and created a significant gap in key macroeconomic data. Delayed employment and inflation reports are expected to begin appearing only by mid-November, and it will take longer for statistical accuracy to be fully restored.

GBP/JPY

Despite two weeks of steady gains, GBP/JPY buyers have so far been unable to break above the October high at 205.30, the current yearly peak. Yesterday, the pair traded near 204.00, but failed to secure a firm close above this level.

Technical analysis suggests the pair may continue rising towards 204.30–204.80 if 204.00 confirms itself as support. A daily close below 203.00 could open the way for a deeper decline towards 201.70–202.30.

Upcoming events that may influence GBP/JPY price action:

• Today, 16:00 (GMT+3): UK Monthly GDP Tracker by NI;
• Today, 23:30 (GMT+3): Net speculative GBP positions from the CFTC.

GBP/USD

Last week’s test of the key 1.3000 support level resulted in the formation of a bullish “piercing line” pattern. The follow-through on this setup allowed buyers to retest the major resistance at 1.3200. A break above this area may extend the corrective move towards 1.3250–1.3300. A sustained move below 1.3100 could lead to a retest of recent lows.

Upcoming events that may affect GBP/USD pricing:

• Today, 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims;
• Today, 17:20 (GMT+3): Speech by FOMC member Raphael Bostic;
• Today, 20:00 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks Follow Wall Streets Lead

Asian stock markets tumbled on Friday, joining a worldwide selloff after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened hopes for a US interest rate cut next month.

This fear, combined with a messy schedule of economic data, caused Wall Street to snap its four-day winning streak with its biggest one-day fall since April, which then spread to Asia.

Key regional markets saw steep declines: Japan's Nikkei fell 2%, Australia's resource shares slid 1.4%, and South Korea tumbled by as much as 3.6%. Separately, Chinese stocks also eased 0.9% after new monthly data confirmed that both factory production and retail sales slowed down in October, missing analyst expectations.

Take a look at how US markets ended yesterday, sentiment which has spilled over into Asian trade.

China Industrial Output Hits 14-Month Low

China’s industrial production grew by 4.9% in October, which was a significant slowdown from the 6.5% growth in September and missed the expected growth of 5.5%. This was the weakest increase seen since August 2024, mainly because activity slowed down in manufacturing and mining, partly due to the Golden Week national holiday.

However, the production of electricity, heat, gas, and water actually accelerated. Despite the overall slowdown, growth was still seen in 29 out of 41 major industries, including very strong performances in the automotive, computer/communications, and shipbuilding sectors. For the first ten months of the year, industrial production has risen by 6.1%.

European Session - Cautious Open Expected

Early European stock futures showed a mixed start, but the past 24 hours have been difficult for global markets as traders suddenly lost confidence that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, now seeing the chance as 50/50. This uncertainty caused global stocks, Treasury bonds, and the US dollar all to fall.

Adding to the bad mood, new data confirmed that China's factory production and retail sales grew at their slowest pace in over a year during October. Compounding the issue, Federal Reserve official Neel Kashkari further reduced optimism by stating he opposed the rate cut last month and is still unsure about supporting a cut in December.

In early European trading, Euro Stoxx 50 futures were down 0.4%, German DAX futures rose 0.1% and FTSE futures slid 0.5%.

On the FX front, the US Dollar (USD) is set to end the week lower, with its overall strength remaining near a two-week low and on track for a 0.4% weekly fall.

The Swiss Franc similarly held near its strongest level in over three weeks against the Dollar.

Meanwhile, the British Pound fell 0.3%, unable to keep the gains it made overnight against the weaker Dollar.

In China, the Yuan hit a one-year high against the Dollar, as local exporters reportedly sold off their dollars after the exchange rate crossed a key level.

Currency Power Balance

Source: OANDA Labs

Oil prices surged by about 2% on Friday because of renewed worries over global supply after a Ukrainian drone attacked a major oil export hub in Russia, the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Russian officials confirmed that the attack early on Friday damaged the oil depot, apartment buildings, and a ship in the port, injuring three crew members.

Following this news, both major benchmarks saw significant jumps, with Brent crude futures rising to $64.25 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude climbing to $59.94 a barrel.

Gold prices rose on Friday and are set for a weekly gain, primarily supported by a weaker US Dollar. The market is currently waiting for the release of more US economic data to get a better sense of whether the Federal Reserve will still cut interest rates in December, especially following recent comments from Fed officials that sounded against a rate cut.

Spot gold was up 0.7% at 4,201.70/oz and has posted a strong overall gain of 5% so far this week.

Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts

On Friday, markets will be influenced by several major announcements.

In terms of company earnings, three large firms are reporting: the German insurer Allianz, the Swiss reinsurance giant Swiss Re, and the British aerospace and defense company Rolls-Royce Holdings.

Regarding economic data, attention will be on Europe:

France will release its final inflation rate (CPI) for October.

The Eurozone will release several important figures, including the first official estimate for economic growth (GDP) in the third quarter, flash data on job changes (Employment flash) for the third quarter, and trade figures (trade balance) for September.

Moving to the US and markets will be hoping for more clarity regarding October data and whether or not it will be released. If it is confirmed that the jobs data and CPI data for October is not going to be released, this could add to market uncertainty and leave sentiment fearful heading into the weekend.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index

From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has pulled back significantly over the last two days.

The index has declined around 200 points as it has followed on from the dent to sentiment which has dragged down US stocks as well.

On the four-hour chart below, the overall structure remains bullish until we get a four-hour candle close below the swing low at 9661.

If price fails to breach the previous swing low, a bounce and recovery remains on the cards. This will however depend on the overall market sentiment improving.

FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, November 14, 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)