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Precious metals haven’t dodged the volatility bullet hitting markets throughout the morning session.

Bleak and brutal overnight trading has failed to attract flows into normally in-demand gold, even as risk sentiment deteriorates sharply.

An unusual positive correlation between the yellow metal and equities is adding confusion about where capital rotates when these outflows occur.

Metals performance since beginning October. November 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

After dropping $150 at its morning lows, mean-reverting buyers dragged Gold prices back toward the $4,100 area, and are attempting to break through the psychological level.

With fresh volatility, lower highs are forming and the outlook is turning increasingly opaque.

So let’s dive into a multi-timeframe Gold analysis to see whether technical signals can help us determine where metal prices may be headed next.

Gold (XAU/USD) multi-timeframe technical analysis

Daily Chart

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart. November 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

After forming a gigantic bearish divergence at the end of last month, brutal outflows brought Gold well below the $4,000 mark.

Still, some strong dip-buying pushed the metal back higher as late-trend followers rushed for the "discounted prices".

But discounts can be traps in markets.

Sole performer during yesterday's bloody session, Gold found a top in a flash sale this morning, all the way to $4,030.

Now back above $4,100, the price action just looks more confusing on the Daily chart.

Long-wicked dojis like the one from today's action can put out trade setups:

• Look at what happens if bulls manage to retake the daily highs at $4,211 (trend continuation)
• Vice versa if bears bring the pair to new lows (especially below $4,000)

4H Chart and technical levels

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart. November 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Gold technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Current All-time High resistance $4,250 to $4,400 (ATH $4,380)
• Low of Resistance zone $4,250 and Triangle formation top
• Session highs $4,211

Support Levels

• 4H MA 200, Session and triangle formation lows: $4,030 to $4,050)
• Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000
• $3,700 consolidation Support
• $3,500 Major Support

1H Chart

Gold (XAU/USD) 1H Chart. November 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

It's a bull and bear battle in today's action, as expressed in the consolidation patterns seen through higher timeframes.

Buyers have broken the $4,100 but the momentum pivot stays around $4,110.

Closing above this level gives more odds for bull continuation towards the weekly close, while closing below the pivot gives back the hand to sellers.

Keep an eye on the triangle formation and watch the afternoon session closely to see if indecision follows or a side takes the wheel.

Safe Trades!

• Bitcoin plunges below $95,000, erasing nearly all 2025 gains amid rising market uncertainty and fading hopes for a Fed rate cut
• Massive outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and $1.3 billion in liquidated leveraged positions deepen the sell-off, highlighting weak market liquidity and investor anxiety
• Strategy Inc. under pressure, as its market value nears the worth of its BTC holdings; Michael Saylor announces new Bitcoin purchases and urges investors to “HODL."

On Friday, Bitcoin fell below the $95,000 mark, reaching $94,508 – its lowest level in about six months. Since hitting a record high of $126,251 in early October, the cryptocurrency has lost nearly 25% of its value. It is now dangerously close to erasing all gains made in 2025, with the year-end price of 2024 standing at $93,714.

Bitcoin, daily timeframe, source:TradingView

Massive ETF Outflows and Leveraged Liquidations

One of the key drivers of the decline is the significant capital outflow from Bitcoin-based ETFs. On Thursday alone, approximately $870 million was withdrawn – the second-largest daily outflow since these instruments were launched. The market is still reeling from the mass liquidation on October 10, when around $19 billion in leveraged positions and over $1 trillion in total crypto market capitalization were wiped out. In the last 24 hours, another $1.3 billion in leveraged positions was liquidated, further intensifying selling pressure.

Macro Pressure and Weak Liquidity Worsen the Outlook

Bitcoin’s correction is closely linked to the broader sell-off in risk assets, particularly U.S. tech stocks. Investors are increasingly revising their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Following recent hawkish remarks from Fed officials, hopes for a rate cut in December have significantly diminished.

Adding to the concern is the declining liquidity in the crypto market. Market depth – the ability of the market to absorb large orders without significant price movements – has dropped by around 30% compared to peak levels earlier this year. As a result, even moderate trade volumes can now lead to sharp price swings.

Strategy Inc. in Focus as Michael Saylor Steps In

Strategy Inc., one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin, has also come under pressure. Its stock around 2%, raising concerns that its market value could dip below the value of its BTC holdings (approximately $61 billion). The company’s total enterprise value, including debt and preferred equity, currently stands at $74.8 billion.

Strategy Inc. , daily timeframe, source: TradingView

Michael Saylor, Strategy’s co-founder, announced that the firm is “buying a lot” of Bitcoin and promised to reveal more details on Monday. He also urged investors to “HODL” – a call to hold on to their Bitcoin despite the ongoing downturn.

The current environment for Bitcoin remains highly volatile and uncertain. The next few trading sessions could be critical in determining whether this is merely a short-term correction or the beginning of a deeper bearish trend.

Gold lost ground on Friday and fell over 3% following more hawkish tones from Fed policymakers that further dropped bets for December rate cut (below 50%, compared to 80% on Thursday and over 90% just a couple of days ago).

FOMC members argued their stance by increased concerns about inflation and relatively stable situation in the labor market, although still lacking the full information, as delayed economic reports are to be released.

Quick drop below several key supports neutralized expectations for a healthy correction (dips to be contained by broken Fibo 50% / broken upper bull channel boundary at $4134) and soured the sentiment.

Near-term focus shifted lower after pullback from Thursday’s recovery peak ($4245) retraced nearly 61.8% of $3886/$4245 upleg, on dip to the session low at $4032 (that also exposed $4000 support (psychological / bull-channel lower boundary

However, hopes of fresh recovery are still alive due to quick bounce and supported by still bullishly aligned daily studies (positive momentum and MA’s in bullish configuration (converging 10/20DMA on track to form bull-cross).

Return and close above $4100 zone is minimum requirement to keep recovery hopes in play, with extension above bull-channel upper boundary ($4131) to validate fresh bullish signal.

Gold’s performance in the near future will depend on the incoming US economic data which will shape Fed’s stance on interest rates.

Res: 4100; 4108; 4131; 4160; 4200
Sup: 4065; 4032; 4038; 4023; 4000

Monday, Nov 17, 2025

Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025

Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025

Thursday, Nov 20, 2025

Friday, Nov 21, 2025

• Canada, Japan and the UK to publish CPI data, but not the US.
• US October jobs and inflation reports may never get released.
• New release schedule likely; FOMC minutes eyed in meantime.
• Flash PMIs to be watched amid renewed economic worries.

US government reopens: All eyes on revised schedule

The US government shutdown finally came to an end on Wednesday after 43 days, raising hopes that it won’t be long before the data blackout is also over. It is very likely that the various statistics agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish updated release schedules at the start of the week. But when the delayed data will start rolling again is yet to be determined.

Quite possibly, the September jobs report will be the first to see the day of light, maybe as early as the end of next week, as it’s thought that the data was already compiled before the government shut down. The same was true for the CPI report, which was the only exception by the BLS, prioritizing its release in late October.

Risk of no October data

However, there are doubts about the October data. The BLS may decide to forgo both the October payrolls and inflation figures to focus on the November data, as even then, they might have to be delayed slightly. Then there’s the question mark about whether it’s going to be possible to backfill the October numbers in the November or future reports.

For example, it would be very difficult for the BLS to collect data for the October CPI and unemployment rate, which is calculated from the household survey, when the month has already elapsed. Though, it might still be possible to backfill the nonfarm payrolls reading, which is prepared from the establishment survey.

A growing list of overdue releases

Investors will also want to learn how soon the initial jobless claims will return to the weekly agenda, as well as the schedule for the delayed October retail sales and PCE inflation, and Q3 GDP reports.

Any complications in the resumption of these key publications could weigh on expectations of Fed rate cuts, as it would provide the hawks with an excuse to stay on hold until there is a fuller picture on the US economy, following Chair Powell’s ‘driving in the fog’ remark.

Hence, the US dollar is more likely to go into consolidation than to extend its pullback in the coming week, while any positive data surprises could revive the bulls.

Fed minutes and flash PMIs are the scheduled highlights

In terms of the regular releases, the New York Fed's and Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing surveys are out on Monday and Thursday, respectively, while S&P Global’s flash PMIs for November due on Friday will be vital for filling in the gaps.

With the markets’ rate cut expectations not currently aligned with the Fed’s own outlook, the dollar will be sensitive to any indications that the US economy is either slowing sharply or that the recent soft jobs readings were a false flag. On the other hand, if the PMIs continue to point to stagflationary conditions, this would knock sentiment as well as the dollar.

Also on next week’s agenda are the minutes of the Fed’s October policy meeting. Most Fed policymakers have already expressed their views since that meeting, so the minutes are not anticipated to spur much reaction. Nevertheless, should the divisions among FOMC members appear to be widening, this could cast a fresh cloud of uncertainty over the rate path.

Will UK CPI boost BoE rate cut bets?

Across the pond, there is a bit more certainty surrounding the odds of the Bank of England cutting rates in December. Only a few weeks ago, many investors were not anticipating further UK rate reductions before spring 2026. But the last CPI report was a game-changer, as it eased fears of inflation spiking above 4.0%. With employment and GDP figures also coming in below expectations in the past week, traders have upped their bets of a 25-bps cut in December to about 80%.

The spotlight now firmly lies on next week’s CPI prints for October, and to a lesser extent, the November 26 budget. Headline inflation remained unchanged at 3.8% y/y in September, while core CPI dipped to 3.5% y/y. A further moderation in Wednesday’s October update would cement expectations that the BoE will trim rates next month, likely pressuring the pound.

However, there might be some support for sterling on Friday should the October retail sales numbers and flash PMIs for November suggest there is still some momentum in the UK economy.

Eurozone PMIs to pose no threat to ECB pause

The flash PMIs will be the primary data point for the euro area. The recent PMI and GDP readings out of the Eurozone have been surprisingly solid, bolstering the view that the European Central Bank is done cutting rates.

Friday’s preliminary PMIs for November are unlikely to change much regarding the rate outlook. Yet any further improvement in economic activity, particularly if both the manufacturing and services gauges hold above 50, could give the euro a small leg up against the US dollar.

Ahead of the PMIs, the final estimates of October CPI are due on Wednesday.

Will Canadian CPI thwart the Loonie’s rebound?

The Bank of Canada may soon join the ECB in going on pause. Although the central bank lowered rates at its last policy meeting, the tone from Governor Tiff Macklem was unusually neutral.

Employment numbers for October supported Macklem’s comment that interest rates are “about the right level”, as Canada’s labour market added more than 60k jobs for the second straight month.

Investors see just a one-third probability of one more rate cut by the BoC over the next year and Monday’s CPI data for October is unlikely to move the needle much. And with the Canadian dollar posting a decent rebound over the past week, any upside surprises in inflation could worsen dollar/loonie’s pullback.

Busy week looms for the Yen

In Japan, consistently above 2.0% inflation has not been enough to convince the Bank of Japan to hike interest rates aggressively. Policymakers continue to fret that wages are not yet growing sustainably fast enough to keep inflation around 2.0%. The new government seems to agree and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has openly called on the BoJ to prioritize growth, questioning whether Japan has truly exited deflation.

But the BoJ hasn’t been completely sidetracked by the political pressure and policymakers have hinted that a hike is on the way, although the timing is less clear.

One reason for the caution is the negative impact the trade uncertainty, and the resulting drag on exports, is expected to have had on third quarter growth. Data out on Monday is forecast to show the Japanese economy contracted by 0.6% q/q in Q3.

However, Friday’s CPI report will probably back the need for more tightening. Core CPI is projected to have edged up in October to 3.0% y/y.

Other releases will also be watched such as machinery orders (Wednesday), trade (Wednesday) and flash PMIs (Friday). Hence, an overall strong batch of data could offer the battered yen some much needed relief, especially versus the greenback, where a breach of the 155 level risks government intervention to prop up the currency.

Delayed U.S. data releases due to the record long government shutdown could begin to trickle out in the week ahead – including potentially the September nonfarm payroll data that was just days away from release before the government shut down in early October.

Next week’s Canadian economic calendar includes important releases on Canada’s household spending and inflation backdrop. October CPI data will likely be the primary focus, with housing starts and resales also set for release on Monday and September retail sales (and the advance estimate for October) to follow on Friday.

We forecast headline inflation to edge down to a 2.1% year-over-year rate, following last month's upside surprise. This moderation is expected to be primarily driven by lower gasoline prices, which fell 5% from September. We expect food price growth to hold close to September’s 3.8% annual rate in October. The October data will include the annual update on property tax prices in the CPI data. Significant property tax increases again took effect in some major population centers, but nationally we expect a smaller increase (4%) than the 6% increase in October a year ago.

Headline CPI growth continues to be distorted on the downside by the removal of the cabon tax from energy products in most provinces in April. Broader measures of ‘core’ inflation are expected to remain above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target rate in October. We look for the price growth excluding food and energy products to hold at a 2.4% year-over-year rate. CPI-trim and CPI-median measures should hold around a 3% year-over-year rate.

Statistics Canada's advance estimate indicates retail sales declined 0.7% month-over-month in September, reversing most of a 1% increase in August. On a quarterly annualized basis, retail sales volume growth likely maintained positive momentum in Q3, albeit at a slower pace than Q2. This also aligns with our own cardholder spending analysis for Q3, which indicates consumer resilience despite ongoing moderation in spending patterns.

Week ahead data watch:

We anticipate housing starts will retreat in October following September's surge. Our forecast stands at 265,000 units, representing a 5% monthly decline that partially reverses September's 14% increase.

Canada’s October home resales report on Monday should show a mixed housing market backdrop across the country, with early market reports pointing to elevated inventories to sales remaining in less affordable markets in B.C. and Ontario but resale increases in other regions.

The end of US government shutdown was not enough to drive a lasting recovery in markets' risk appetite, with equity and bond markets weakening towards the end of the week. While the government reopening itself has a positive impact on the economy, the focus remains on the backlog of key US macro data which is now set to be released over the next few weeks. The latest Fed speakers have sounded increasingly hawkish and notably, three of the new incoming voters for 2026 (Kashkari, Logan and Hammack) have all said they opposed the previous decision to cut rates in October. Markets price the Fed's December rate decision as essentially a coin-flip between a cut and a hold, and we maintain our call for an unchanged rate decision.

The first major datapoint due for release will be the September Jobs Report, out most likely early next week. September JOLTs, PCE and Q3 GDP are expected to follow within roughly a week. The fate of October releases remains less clear, as the shutdown interfered with the data collection periods. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) could receive some responses for the October establishment survey (used for calculating the nonfarm payrolls) as it collects the November data. But the household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, is missing completely. Similarly, 2/3 of the inflation data for the CPI is collected with in-person visits to stores and is now also naturally missing.

As such, the White House suggested the October releases might even be cancelled altogether. Alternatively, BLS could release delayed, and heavily imputed estimates in conjunction with the November data. In any case, the November Jobs Report (scheduled for December 5^th) will be the first major 'real-time' release to look out for. The data collection for November reports should have already started, so minor delays are still possible. This could end up being problematic for the Fed, as the important November CPI report is scheduled for the same day as the FOMC's next rate decision (10 December).

But while we wait, incoming data flow has generally been weaker than expected. The latest German ZEW index disappointed as the future expectations component declined. Similarly, the Sentix index of Euro Area investor confidence fell (-7.4, from -5.4) against expectations of a modest rebound. UK employment growth turned negative in October (-32k) as did the September estimate of GDP growth (-0.1%). October credit and production data from China signalled that support from past stimulus measures is starting to fade. And finally, the weekly private sector payroll estimates from ADP showed that US employment growth turned negative (-11k per week) during the four weeks leading up to October 25^th.

As such, we will closely follow next Friday's flash November PMIs from euro area, the UK and the US to gain a clearer sense of the current growth momentum. PMIs have signalled improving growth outlook across developed markets through most of this year.

ECB's indicator of negotiated wages is due for release on Friday. While wage pressures remain a key indicator for gauging underlying inflation, the indicator is heavily influenced by one-off inflation compensation bonuses from last year. And finally on the other side of the Atlantic, the minutes from FOMC's October meeting could gather more attention than usual given the highly varying views heard from Fed speakers lately.

Full report in PDF. 

Markets

UK markets trade very volatile today. It started with overnight rumours about UK Chancellor Reeves dropping her controversial tax-raising measures for the 2026 Budget to be released November 26. The last-minute turnaround seemed to be inspired by the coup attempts against the other Labour frontman, PM Starmer. Apart from the credibility perspective, the U-turn also placed doubt over the government’s ability to plug the budget hole and re-install existing (narrow) fiscal buffers. As a result, UK gilts and sterling sold off at the start of trading with UK yields sprinting more than 10 bps higher across the curve and EUR/GBP setting a new cycle top above 0.8860. Part of the losses were undone slightly after incurring them on reports of improved forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility. They expected productivity downgrade would be partially offset by other factors like strength in government receipts and stronger wage performance. As a result, the predicted fiscal hole (without building) buffer would be closer to £20bn than to £35bn. The UK asset-comeback move rapidly ran out of steam over worries that the budget watchdog’s forecasts would paint an overly optimistic picture for the UK economy. Anyway, today’s episode highlights the fragility of UK public finances, the lack of fiscal leeway by the government and market sensitivity to the theme. We expect UK risk premia to stay elevated in the run-up to the November 26 deadline. The UK yield curve bear steepens today with yields 6.2 bps (2-yr) to 12.2 bps (30-yr) higher across the curve.

The sharper risk correction grabs remaining headlines today. Main European indices lose 1.5% to 2% after reaching all-time highs earlier this week. US stock markets open 1%-1.5% lower. US Treasuries again outperform German Bunds on bond markets with daily changes on the US curve varying between -2.9 bps and -4.1 bps with the belly of the curve performing best. The eco calendar remains empty, but the US government is rumoured to return to publication starting next Tuesday or Wednesday. The September payrolls report and September producer prices are in pole-position as data were already gathered before the start of the US government shutdown. Headlines that net new borrowing by the German government will be €8bn higher than originally planned next year (€98bn or above €180bn including special funds for defense and infrastructure outside the core budget) help explain the Bund’s underperformance. Changes on the German curve are close to zero compared with yesterday. The dollar again showed two faces, initially profiting from the risk correction, but handing back gains on the diverging path of German Bunds and US Treasuries. EUR/USD currently changes hands around 1.1635 almost perfectly in line with starting levels.

News & Views

The European Commission is finalizing plans for an overhaul of the European Securities & Markets Authority into a model that is more like the US’ SEC. It entails a major transfer of national powers to the European regulator, including oversight of “significant” clearing houses, depositories and trading venues as well as all crypto firms and the creation of a Pan-European Market Operator so firms can use a single authorization to operate across the EU. The hope is that aligning Europe’s fragmented capital markets piece by piece ultimately leads to higher growth as private savings find their way outside national borders. The Commission’s proposal needs agreement in the European Parliament and the council of EU member states. While the likes of France have been a staunch proponent, other member states are more reluctant to cede national powers.

The US Trade Representative Greer said the US and Switzerland have “essentially” reached a trade agreement. The deal would lower tariffs from 39% currently to 15%, matching the EU’s rate. Greer added that Switzerland has additionally committed to investing $200bn in the US and that it promised to buy more Boeing planes. A Swiss delegation arrived yesterday in Washington DC and rumours of a potential trade deal were already circulating earlier this week. Combined with Swiss National Bank comments that dampened speculation of a return to negative rates and safe haven flows (especially today) have been a boon to CHF in recent days. The Swiss franc rose from EUR/CHF 0.931 end last week to 0.919 currently, the strongest Swiss franc level on record barring the volatile swings early 2015 in the wake of lifting the CHF cap.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1590; (P) 1.1623; (R1) 1.1667; More…

Intraday bias in EUR?USD stays mildly on the upside for 1.1724 resistance. Firm break there will solidify the case that fall from 1.1917 has completed as a three-wave correction. Further rise should then be seen to retest 1.1971 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.1561 minor support will revive near term bearishness and target 1.1467 and below.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1306) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3123; (P) 1.3170; (R1) 1.3238; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral for the moment and more consolidations could be seen. Further decline is expected with 1.3247 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.3008 will target 138.2% projection of 1.3787 to 1.3140 from 1.3725 at 1.2831. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3247 will suggest that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a corrective move already.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3185) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2780) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.