Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 203.14; (P) 203.61; (R1) 204.25; More...

GBP/JPY lost momentum ahead of 204.22 resistance and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 204.22 resistance should confirm that correction from 205.30 has completed with three waves at 199.04. Further rise should be seen through 205.30 to resume the larger rally from 184.53. On the downside, below 202.31 minor support will turn bias to the downside to 199.04 and below to extend the correction.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 197.47 support will dampen this view and extend the corrective pattern with another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 179.37; (P) 179.65; (R1) 180.08; More...

EUR/JPY's rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current up trend should target 100% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 171.09 at 183.90 next. On the downside, below 179.19 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 175.67 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 168.56) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8811; (P) 0.8828; (R1) 0.8839; More…

EUR/GBP's rally continues today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 0.8867 fibonacci level. Firm break there will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target will be 100% projection of 0.8354 to 0.8752 from 0.8631 at 0.9029. On the downside, below 0.8811 will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 0.8765 support will confirm short term topping.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Firm break of 0.8654 support will be the first sign that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7685; (P) 1.7767; (R1) 1.7903; More...

EUR/AUD recovered notably but stays in range of 1.7561/7895 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 1.7561 support will revive the bearish case that corrective pattern from 1.8554 is in the third leg, and target 1.7245 support. On the upside, though, above 1.7895 will resume the rebound from 1.7561 to 1.8160 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7424) will suggest that it's correcting the whole rally from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922. Nevertheless, strong rebound form 55 W EMA will likely bring resumption of the up trend sooner.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9207; (P) 0.9233; (R1) 0.9252; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside for 0.9204/8 support zone. Break there will confirm larger down trend resumption. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.9452 to 0.9208 from 0.9325 at 0.9175. Decisive break there could prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.9082. On the upside, above 0.9256 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish with EUR/CHF staying well inside long term falling channel after multiple rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9383). Firm break of 0.9204 will resume the whole down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. However, break of 0.9452 resistance will now be the first sign of medium term bottoming.

Risk aversion returned forcefully overnight, with Wall Street suffering its steepest daily decline in a month as investors unwound exposures. The reopening of the U.S. government offered no support to sentiment, with markets instead refocusing on the prospect that a December Fed rate cut is far from assured. Comments from several Fed officials pushed back against aggressive easing expectations, prompting Fed fund futures to mark down the odds of a December cut to around 50%, from nearly 70% just one week ago. The shift revived concerns that policy support may not arrive as early as traders had hoped.

Technology stocks bore the brunt of the selloff. Major AI leaders, including Nvidia and other semiconductor names, saw another round of heavy liquidation, a stark reversal from the early-week relief rally. It appears the market’s concern over stretched AI valuations was only temporarily set aside—not dismissed.

Asian sentiment followed the U.S. lower, with Nikkei and Kospi leading declines. SoftBank’s sharp plunge, extending a third day of heavy losses after confirming on Tuesday that it had sold its entire Nvidia stake, added an extra drag to regional tech shares.

China offered no cushion. Fresh data showed an even deeper slowdown in October, driven by weak consumer demand, falling investment, and the ongoing property downturn. The soft tone reinforced the perception that China’s recovery remains uneven and fragile.

Nevertheless, there was one constructive development on the trade front. The U.S. and Switzerland moved closer to a deal that could reduce the crippling 39% U.S. tariffs on Swiss imports. After talks in Washington, both sides described discussions as “very positive,” with Swiss Economy Minister Guy Parmelin saying virtually all issues were clarified.

An unnamed Swiss official said a deal has been effectively reached, pending final approval from US President Donald Trump. A senior U.S. official echoed the optimism, adding that Switzerland had presented a plan to reduce its trade surplus with the U.S. and lower non-tariff barriers, creating a path for tariff reductions if the White House signs off.

In the currency markets, Swiss Franc remains the strongest performer this week, benefiting from safe-haven flows and expectations of a breakthrough in trade negotiations. Kiwi and Aussie hold second and third place but are starting to look vulnerable as risk sentiment deteriorates.

At the other end of the spectrum, Yen remains pinned at the bottom, pressured by expectations that the BoJ will delay its long-anticipated hike until January at the earliest. Sterling is the second weakest as soft data reinforce BoE cut expectations for December. Dollar sits third-weakest, while Euro and Loonie are positioned in the middle of the weekly rankings.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.59%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.26%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.16%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.78%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.008 at 1.699. Overnight, DOW fell -1.65%. S&P 500 fell -1.66%. NASDAQ fell -2.29%. 10-year yield rose 0.047 to 4.112.

China industrial production slows to 4.9% yoy in October, investment contraction deepens

China’s October activity data pointed to a loss of momentum, with industrial production rising 4.9% yoy, down from September’s 6.5% yoy and below expectations of 5.6%. It marks the weakest annual pace since August 2024.

Retail sales also slowed, rising 2.9% yoy compared with 3.0% in September, though slightly outperforming expectations of 2.7% yoy. Still, it was the slowest pace since August last year, underscoring persistently cautious household demand. Excluding autos, consumer goods retail sales rose a firmer 4.0%, suggesting pockets of resilience but not enough to anchor a broad consumption recovery.

More concerning was the continued drag from investment: fixed asset investment fell -1.7% ytd yoy, deteriorating from -0.5% and missing expectations of -0.7%. Private-sector investment remained under heavy pressure, dropping -4.5%, underscoring structural weakness in confidence, property-linked spillovers, and limited risk appetite.

New Zealand BNZ PMI at 51.4 as orders hit three-year high

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector showed further improvement in October, with BusinessNZ PMI rising from 50.1 to 51.4, marking a fourth straight month above 50. While still below the long-term average of 52.4, the sector is now experiencing its most sustained period of expansion in three years, hinting that the worst of the downturn may be behind it.

The details were encouraging: production improved from 50.5 to 52.0. New orders jumped from 50.5 to 54.9, the strongest pace since August 2022 and a key sign that demand conditions are firming. Employment remained in contraction at 48.1, up from 47.7, but even that component showed stabilization after six months of declines.

BusinessNZ’s Catherine Beard said October brought “more signs of life” after months of stagnation. The share of negative respondent comments fell from 60.2% to 54.1%, with many firms reporting stronger orders, seasonal demand, new customers, and productivity gains driven by process improvements and automation.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9207; (P) 0.9233; (R1) 0.9252; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside for 0.9204/8 support zone. Break there will confirm larger down trend resumption. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.9452 to 0.9208 from 0.9325 at 0.9175. Decisive break there could prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.9082. On the upside, above 0.9256 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish with EUR/CHF staying well inside long term falling channel after multiple rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9383). Firm break of 0.9204 will resume the whole down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. However, break of 0.9452 resistance will now be the first sign of medium term bottoming.

China’s October activity data pointed to a loss of momentum, with industrial production rising 4.9% yoy, down from September’s 6.5% yoy and below expectations of 5.6%. It marks the weakest annual pace since August 2024.

Retail sales also slowed, rising 2.9% yoy compared with 3.0% in September, though slightly outperforming expectations of 2.7% yoy. Still, it was the slowest pace since August last year, underscoring persistently cautious household demand. Excluding autos, consumer goods retail sales rose a firmer 4.0%, suggesting pockets of resilience but not enough to anchor a broad consumption recovery.

More concerning was the continued drag from investment: fixed asset investment fell -1.7% ytd yoy, deteriorating from -0.5% and missing expectations of -0.7%. Private-sector investment remained under heavy pressure, dropping -4.5%, underscoring structural weakness in confidence, property-linked spillovers, and limited risk appetite.

Key Highlights

• USD/JPY remained supported above the 154.00 zone.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support at 154.15 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD recovered some losses and climbed above 1.1580.
• GBP/USD still faces hurdles near 1.3200 and 1.3240.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar settled above the 152.00 pivot level against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY tested 155.00 before there was a short-term correction.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair remained supported above 154.00, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). On the downside, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 154.15.

On the upside, the pair faces resistance near the 155.00 zone. The first key hurdle sits at 155.50. A close above 155.50 might send the pair higher toward 156.20.

The next resistance could be 156.50. Any more gains could set the pace for a steady increase toward 158.00. On the downside, the pair might find support at 154.00 and the trend line. The main support might be 153.35 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).

A close below the 153.35 zone could start a pullback toward 152.00 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). Any more losses might open the doors for a test of 151.00.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair started a recovery wave above 1.1580 and now faces tough resistance near 1.1650.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• US Retail Sales for Oct 2025 (MoM) – Forecast +0.4%, versus +0.6% previous.
• US Producer Price Index for Oct 2025 (MoM) – Forecast +0.3%, versus -0.1% previous.
• US Producer Price Index for Oct 2025 (YoY) – Forecast +2.6%, versus +2.6% previous.

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector showed further improvement in October, with BusinessNZ PMI rising from 50.1 to 51.4, marking a fourth straight month above 50. While still below the long-term average of 52.4, the sector is now experiencing its most sustained period of expansion in three years, hinting that the worst of the downturn may be behind it.

The details were encouraging: production improved from 50.5 to 52.0. New orders jumped from 50.5 to 54.9, the strongest pace since August 2022 and a key sign that demand conditions are firming. Employment remained in contraction at 48.1, up from 47.7, but even that component showed stabilization after six months of declines.

BusinessNZ’s Catherine Beard said October brought “more signs of life” after months of stagnation. The share of negative respondent comments fell from 60.2% to 54.1%, with many firms reporting stronger orders, seasonal demand, new customers, and productivity gains driven by process improvements and automation.

Full NZ BNZ PMI release here.

Key insights from the week that was.

In Australia, the week’s dataflow kicked off with a bang as Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment surged 12.8% in November to 103.8, the first reading above the optimist / pessimist divide since the economy reopened after the ‘delta’ outbreak. A calmer geopolitical backdrop following the de-escalation of US-China trade tensions and a more assured domestic recovery look to be behind the result.

While respondents showed some renewed concerns over inflation and the interest rate outlook, these negatives were offset. It is interesting to note that responses received after the RBA’s November decision were positive, suggesting the Board’s decision and communications were construed as measured rather than outright hawkish.

On balance, these factors led to a significant improvement in views on the economic outlook for one year (+16.6%) and five years (+15.3%). The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index also jumped (+14.9%); together with less-restrained intentions for Christmas spending, this outcome suggests the foundation for the consumer recovery is firming. Positive wealth effects associated with the housing upswing are arguably also at play, as evinced by strong investor-led growth in home lending and Westpac-MI house price expectations moving to a new cycle high.

While consumers have grown more anxious on the jobs outlook, this week’s labour force data confirmed that the labour market is only softening at a very gradual pace. Employment was firmer-than-expected in the month, rising +42.2k, keeping annual growth steady at 1.5% on a three-month average basis. The unemployment rate also fell from a ‘thin’ 4.5% in September to a ‘fat’ 4.3% in October (–0.1ppt from 4.45% to 4.34%). Looking through the noise, the steady-but-modest uptrend in the unemployment rate in place throughout 2025 remains intact. At its current level, the unemployment rate is broadly consistent with full employment – indicative of a labour market in good health but which poses little-to-no risk to inflation via wages.

The rebalancing of employment growth from the ‘jobs-rich’, public-funded care economy to the less ‘jobs-intensive’ market sector is a key driver of the softening employment trend. The latest NAB business survey suggests this transition remains in good stead, the business conditions index rising to its highest level since March 2024. Confidence is re-emerging but remains fragile. Given the weak starting point for investment, businesses might hold off on capacity expansion.

The main development offshore this week was US Congressional approval to end the government shutdown in place since the beginning of October. While a welcome development, another partial shutdown from the end of January is a distinct possibility, with only the Departments of Agriculture and Veteran’s Affairs, the Food and Drug Administration, military construction projects and Congress funded through to end-September. There is no guarantee a vote on extending the Obamacare subsidies will pass over year end, and so debate is likely to remain highly politicised over funding the remainder of the Government from February.

In coming weeks, US statistical agencies will attempt to bring the dataflow back up to date, though the market has already been told some upcoming releases will be incomplete. FOMC members, by and large, continue to focus attention on inflation risks, viewing these as more significant and immediate than the labour market’s ongoing deceleration. Arguably then, it will take a material deterioration in conditions for the Committee to ease again at the December meeting.