Sample Category Title

AUD/USD stayed in range of 0.6457/6616 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.6457 will target 0.6413 cluster (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403). Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, break of 0.6616 will bring retest of 0.6706 high instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Break of 0.6413 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and solidify this bearish case. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. On the upside, firm break of 0.6941 will argue that the third leg has already started back to 0.8006.

USD/CAD's pullback from 1.4139 short term top extended lower to 1.3984 last week and recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Firm break of 1.4039 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound to retest 1.4139 high. On the downside, below 1.3984 will target 1.3886 support next. Overall, rise from 1.3538 is in favor to continue as long as 1.3886 support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low), with rise from 1.3538 as the second leg. A third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3886 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3886 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3543) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.90567 (2007 low) should still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction.

GBP/JPY roses strongly to 204.04 last week but failed to break through 204.22 resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 204.22 will suggest that larger rally from 184.53 is ready to resume through 205.03. However, break of 202.31 minor support will turn bias to the downside towards 199.04, to extend the corrective pattern from 205.30 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 197.47 support will dampen this view and extend the corrective pattern with another fall.

In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has concluded. But firm break of 208.09 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.

EUR/JPY's up trend resumed last week but lost momentum after hitting 179.95. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 175.67 support. On the upside, break of 179.95 will target 100% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 171.09 at 183.90 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 168.61) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long as 154.77 support holds.

EUR/GBP's rally resumed to 0.8663 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 0.8765 support will confirm short term topping. Deeper fall should then be seen back to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8725) even still as a correction. On the upside, however, sustained trading above 0.8867 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target will be 100% projection of 0.8354 to 0.8752 from 0.8631 at 0.9029.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8571) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD stayed in range of 1.7561/7895 last week and the near term outlook is mixed. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.7561 support will revive the bearish case that corrective pattern from 1.8554 is in the third leg, and target 1.7245 support. On the upside, though, above 1.7895 will resume the rebound from 1.7561 to 1.8160 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7426) will suggest that it's correcting the whole rally from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 55 W EMA will likely bring resumption of the up trend sooner.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6546) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.

EUR/CHF's down trend resumed by breaking through 0.9205 last week, but recovered after dipping to 0.9178. Initial bias is turned neutral this week and some consolidations could be seen. Recovery should be limited below 0.9325 resistance to bring another fall. Firm break of 0.9178 will target 100% projection of 0.9452 to 0.9208 from 0.9325 at 0.9082.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish with EUR/CHF staying well inside long term falling channel after multiple rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9383). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Break of 0.9452 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in progress in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.9820) holds.

Week in review – Markets remain very anxious

This week finally saw the US government reopen after the longest ever government shutdown, which lasted 43 days.

News of the deal initially brought a much-needed rally in stocks on Monday, but throughout the week, markets have been plagued by sudden selloffs without much explanation.

NOTE: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the September NFP (normally published in early October) on Thursday, November 20.

As explained in our last weekly outlook, participants remain anxious on themes of high valuations, particularly as key participants like Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang issued warnings on US policies and regulations that he believes will restrain progress in AI.

Huang stated that China is only "nanoseconds behind America in AI".

Many doubts remain after some warnings from private data releases, like the new weekly ADP series, which indicated an average drop of 11K jobs in the private sector in the past four weeks. This has fueled even more anxiety about how the 1.5-month "data dark age" will ultimately look.

Adding to the confusion, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that due to the lack of collection during the shutdown, the October jobs (NFP) and inflation (CPI) data may never be released.

Leavitt claimed the data was "permanently impaired," leaving policymakers "flying blind at a critical period".

There has been a decent move higher in equities to finish the week after an even more scary open, but participants are all looking at each other to see who moves first.

Expect to receive more news from the BLS as they resume their operations again.

From what it seems, they will be prioritizing November releases.

However, the September NFP is expected to be released quickly, as early as next week, as its data was collected prior to the shutdown taking effect.

Weekly Performance across Asset Classes

Weekly Asset Performance, November 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Cryptocurrencies see the most outflows once again in the ongoing risk-deleveraging happening throughout Markets.

For the rest, despite enormous volatility, most assets have mean-reverted throughout the week, leading to low weekly changes.

But for those who have been actively trading and/or watching the action unfold, everybody can confirm that the week has been far from calm.

Crypto Total Market Cap down another 10% this week – Source: TradingView

The Week Ahead – US September NFP and many Inflation releases

Asia Pacific Markets – A focus on Japan and New Zealand combined with PBoC Rate Decision

The upcoming week for APAC markets is dominated by high-impact inflation updates, now focusing mostly on Japan and New Zealand data.

AUD traders will still have to log in. Monday starts with the release of the RBA Meeting Minutes, offering a detailed look at the Board's recent interest rate discussions and after another week of positive economic surprise (large beats in Employment, delaying cuts further).

The primary domestic indicator will be the Wage Price Index (WPI), due on Tuesday evening (20:30 ET), which is the most critical measure of underlying domestic inflation pressure.

For those following China, the PBoC Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday evening (21:15 ET) will attract quite some attention.

While no change is expected, communication regarding growth and concerns will be closely watched by all participants; China released some pretty bad data the past week, particularly regarding international trade.

Japanese data sets the stage early and provides the week's biggest inflation event. Sunday night brings the preliminary Q3 GDP figures to check the economy's pulse.

However , the key macro event for JPY traders is Thursday evening's (19:30 ET) National CPI release, but this one is not as closely compared to the Tokyo CPI (releasing next week).

NZD traders will also be quite busy, with the New Zealand Producer Price Index (Q3) releasing Tuesday evening, and followed by their Trade Balance data on Thursday.

US, Europe and UK Markets – US September NFP Inflation in Canada, Europe and UK + Some PMI spice

The upcoming week for traders is highly polarized, focusing on inflation in Europe, the UK and Canada – The picture is still unclear for US data except for a November 20 Sep NFP release!

Starting Monday, CAD traders will welcome the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 9:30 A.M. ET.

Major data continues in Europe on Wednesday (6:00 A.M. ET) with the release of the Eurozone Core HICP (CPI).

The EU will also publish crucial forward-looking sentiment figures on Friday with the HCOB PMIs (4:15 - 5:00 A.M. ET), giving a fresh look at economic activity.

As for the US, the week is a waiting game of surprises, particularly with the BLS uncertainty.

Traders will look at the interest-rate-sensitive Housing Starts and Permits on Wednesday (8:30 A.M. ET).

The market’s real focus will be on potential past releases throughout next week, the New weekly ADP series on Tuesday, and Friday's Michigan Sentiment Survey (11:00 A.M. ET), which offers direct insight into consumer confidence and, more importantly, long-term Inflation Expectations.

Of course, the Swiss Franc is on watch as well, with SNB Chair Thomas Jordan speaking on Friday, and any policy hint will move the safe-haven currency that has seen quite some inflows again this week.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only)

Not on the picture, but keep an eye on the flurry of Central Bank speeches throughout the week as the final quarter rate decisions approach.

Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!

Canadian Highlights

• Prime Minister Carney unveiled a second tranche of six major projects designated for fast-track approvals.
• Inflation and retail sales data next week will likely confirm that prices are stabilizing and continued cautious spending from households.
• The Bank of Canada is likely done cutting interest rates. Risks to the outlook remain, but current rates appear to strike a balance between cushioning the impact from tariffs and preventing a new leg up in inflation.

U.S. Highlights

• The longest U.S. government shutdown in history finally ended after 43 days. However, markets reacted cautiously, with equities generally trending lower amid a selloff in tech stocks.
• Recent Fed speeches highlighted persistent caution, with several officials signaling reluctance to ease policy further. Odds of a December rate cut fell to around 50% from over 60% earlier in the week.
• Small business optimism recorded a slight decline in October but remained above its long-term average. Related inflation indicators improved modestly, while labor market metrics appeared to hold their own.

Canada – Building a Nation

A light week of domestic economic data paved the way for the federal government to make another splash following the federal budget release. Prime Minister Carney announced six new projects of perceived “national importance” to be considered for fast-track approval, increasing the total to 11. Two additional projects are in B.C.—the North Coast Transmission Line and the Ksi Lisims LNG project—while Ontario’s Crawford Nickel project and Quebec’s Nouveau Monde Graphite project were also included. The Sisson Mine in New Brunswick and a hydroelectric project in Iqaluit have also been added to the roster (Chart 1). The projects included on the list are at various stages, from early-planning to mid-construction, and are estimated to cost a total of over $100 billion.

The hope is that fast-tracking these projects through the existing regulatory framework will bolster Canada’s economy and help reach the government’s broader goal of catalyzing $500 billion in private-sector investment over the next five years, a substantial tailwind for the economy should it materialize. From our lens, it the Major Projects Office still has its work cut out for it in bringing these projects to fruition. Given the novelty of the fast-tracking initiative, our outlook remains cautious but could be upgraded if notable progress on the investments is made.

Next week will bring a slew of important data to the counter including an inflation update on Monday and retail data on Friday. Headline price growth in October is projected to slow, partly due to lower energy prices, while core inflation measures are expected to remain near the upper limit of the Bank of Canada’s 1–3% inflation target range. Retail sales advanced estimates for September point to a contraction, which would continue the see-saw pattern of monthly declines then increases. Spending trends indicate that real personal spending growth in the latter half of 2025 should drift to a below-trend rate.

Further clarity about international trade developments in September is also expected soon, although the exact release date has not been announced. The U.S. government shutdown delayed Canada’s international trade releases as they rely on U.S. government sources. Unless there is a significant decline in exports for September, something we don’t expect, net trade is projected to contribute modestly to third-quarter GDP growth following a notably weak performance in the previous quarter (Chart 2).

The BoC’s next decision is on Dec. 10th, where it is widely expected to hold rates steady. With the policy rate at 2.25%, it is at the bottom end of its estimated neutral rate range and likely marks the end of their easing cycle. This week’s Summary of Deliberations highlighted that governing council believes it has done all it can to combat the impact from tariffs. The economy’s path from here, including the impact of the recent federal budget, will dictate the path forward. Should the economy continue to evolve in line with expectations, we don’t see a need for further interest rate cuts in the foreseeable future.

U.S. – Shutdown is Over, but Uncertainty to Linger Some More

The longest U.S. government shutdown in history ended this week after 43 days, bringing relief to federal workers and the broader economy. Yet, markets responded with caution. A series of Fed speeches offered little clarity on the Fed’s next move, with several officials appearing to favor a pause. Odds of a December rate cut have declined notably this week. Equities trended lower in the second half of the week, despite an uptick on Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq faring worse.

Still, the end of the shutdown could be more of a temporary patch than a permanent fix. The deal includes full-year funding for only three out of 12 annual spending bills, with the rest funded only through January, leaving a real risk of a partial shutdown come February, especially if negotiations over Affordable Care Act subsidies falter. The full economic impact is uncertain, but the CBO estimates it could shave around 1.5 percentage points from fourth-quarter real GDP growth. We anticipate Q4 growth to slow to around 1%, down from a tracking of +3% in the third quarter.

As departments like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) resume normal operations, delayed economic data should start to be released, but the revised schedule is unknown at time of writing. In the meantime, weekly initial jobless claims remain near recent levels (Chart 1). Small businesses also appear to be maintaining a hiring focus. The average change in employment for small firms did remain in shallow negative territory, but October small business employment indicators from the NFIB survey overall reinforced a “low hire, low fire” theme. Job openings are off pandemic highs, but remained in the upper range of historical norms in October (Chart 2). Meanwhile, the share of small firms citing “quality of labor” as their top problem surged to an all-time high of 27%, leaving concerns about taxes (16%) and inflation (12%) well behind.

We will soon find out how well the alternative data guided us through the shutdown. September’s job report would have been largely finished when the shut down began, and we expect it will be released next week. But, neither October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) survey, nor the household survey portion of the employment report would have been conducted in the usual way with government workers off the job. The White House has said these reports are unlikely to be released. We don’t yet know if October data in both cases will be imputed from partial results or remain interpolations. The payrolls portion of the October jobs report is still likely to be released though. The lack of CPI for October will have knock on effects for other government data, like GDP, resulting in more estimation than usual.

All of these data disruptions mean the Fed is unlikely to have all the usual data it would ahead of it’s interest rate decision. Markets are currently putting coin flip odds that the lack of data will lead the FOMC to pause in December, rather than proceed in a data fog.

Summary

United States: Fed on the Fence

• A wave of hawkish Federal Reserve commentary casting doubt on a December rate cut provided financial markets news to digest in the absence of any major economic data releases this week.
• Next week: Nonfarm Payrolls (Expected Tue. or Wed.), Existing Home Sales (Thu.)

International: Mixed Momentum in Global Activity

• This week’s data releases painted a mixed picture across major economies: The UK maintained modest Q3 growth with wage gains slowing, Australia’s labor market rebounded from last month’s weakness, while China’s activity data continued to soften.
• Next week: Japan GDP (Mon.), Canada CPI (Mon.), Eurozone PMIs (Fri.)

Topic of the Week: A Shutdown Solution at Last

• The longest government shutdown on record came to an end this week. With federal employees coming back to work in full force, the backlog of economic data should start to clear next week, but the impact on the U.S. data flow will reverberate for months to come.

Full report here.