Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.61; (P) 143.07; (R1)143.63; More....

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidation from 145.62 and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained above 138.38 resistance turned support bring another rally. On the upside, decisive break of 145.62 will pave the way to 149.76 long term resistance, and then 100% projection of 124.37 to 144.26 from 133.38 at 153.27.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Further rally is in favor as long as 133.38 support holds. Next target is 149.76 (2015 high). However, sustained break of 133.38 will be a sign of medium term bearish reversal and turn focus to 124.37 support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8727; (P) 0.8755; (R1) 0.8795; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside at this point. Current rise from 0.8201 should target 100% projection of 0.8201 to 0.8720 from 0.8338 at 0.8857. On the downside, break of 0.8624 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the down trend from 0.9499 has (2020 high) has completed at 0.8201. Rise from there is developing into a medium term up trend. Further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.9003 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 0.8545) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4861; (P) 1.4915; (R1) 1.4957; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside. Rebound from 1.4281 is in progress for 1.5396 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.4663 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.4281 low.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9602; (P) 0.9634; (R1) 0.9688; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment, and outlook stays bearish as long as 0.9864 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.9530 will extend larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.0512 to 0.9550 from 0.9864 at 0.9269.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9033. On the upside, break of 0.9864 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3214; (P) 1.3261; (R1) 1.3311; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend should target 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. Break there will target medium term fibonacci level at 1.3650. On the downside, below 1.3238 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained well above 1.2952 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2716 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6687; (P) 0.6705; (R1) 0.6741; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first and outlook stays bearish. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6680 will resume larger down trend. Next target will be 0.6461 long term fibonacci level. On the upside, above 0.6769 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.6915 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.62; (P) 143.16; (R1) 143.47; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 144.98 is extending. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 139.37 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 144.98 will resume larger up trend to 147.68 long term resistance. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 151.44 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9610; (P) 0.9636; (R1) 0.9670; More

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is back on the upside with strong break of 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.9644). Further rally should be seen to 0.9868 resistance first. Break there will argue that larger up trend is ready to resume through 1.0063. Overall, the corrective pattern from 1.0063 high could still extend. Below 0.9554 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9478 and below.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 0.8756 (2021 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 1.0063 will target 100% projection of 0.9149 to 1.0063 from 0.9369 at 1.0283, and then 1.0342 (2016 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9369 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9961; (P) 0.9999; (R1) 1.0053; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook stays bearish. On the downside, firm break of 0.9863 support will resume larger down trend. On the upside, break of 1.0197 resistance will now raise the chance of larger trend reversal, and target 1.0368 resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0368 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Market movers today

There are no major releases today, so attention will turn to the string of central banks meetings coming up this week, starting with Riksbanken tomorrow, followed by the Fed (Wednesday) and Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and the Turkish central bank on Thursday.

Also, in focus will be the preliminary PMIs on both sides of the Atlantic on Friday.

The 60 second overview

Markets: The week kicks off in a risk-off mode as markets brace themselves for a flurry of central bank meetings ahead. It should be a rather quiet day with thin trading as Japan and UK are off, with the latter observing a day of mourning for the late Queen Elizabeth II. All eyes are on Wednesday's Fed meeting with investors considering a 75bp hike a done deal and some calling for an even larger hike. A poll for leading academic economists by Financial Times found that the Fed was expected to lift its policy rate above 4% and hold it there beyond 2023. See our Research US - Fed preview: Fast pace hiking cycle continues, 16 September.

Hungary: Yesterday, the EU commission said that it plans to withhold EUR 7.5bn in EU funding for Hungary (or a third of the country's total EU funds) over rule of law violations involving corruption in the awarding of public contracts. The decision to withhold the funds must be approved by a majority of the EU's member states, excluding Hungary, within a month but the deadline could be extended up to two months "in exceptional circumstances". Hungarian authorities said yesterday that they plan to pass a series of laws this week to address EU concerns. Yesterday's decision by the EU Commission is likely to put pressure on the HUF today.

Geopolitics: In the last seven days, two conflicts have erupted in Russia's neighbourhood: an expanded version of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and a border conflict between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. These conflicts may have broader long-term geopolitical repercussions as Russia seems to be taking a more and more hands-off approach when it comes to protecting its post-Soviet allies. The Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict last escalated in 2020. Back then, the war resulted in Russia-brokered ceasefire and in Azerbaijani victory. Turkey's material support to its neighbouring Azerbaijan also played a game-changing role in the conflict. The latest conflict seems like the second time, Armenia, a member of the CSTO, an intergovernmental military alliance for post-Soviet states, is being left without any support from Russia. Same time, US flags were hoisted over the weekend as House Speaker Pelosi paid a visit to Armenia's capital Yerevan, strongly condemning Azerbaijan's attack. Similarly, Russia seems to pay little attention to the border clash between two CSTO members, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, in Central Asia, implying that it either has little resources or motivation (or both) at this point to promote peace and stability in the region, and protect its so-called allies.

Equities: Inflation fear and recession fears continue to switch gears. On Friday, the latter one took the lead. Positive inflation data combined with Fedex's profit warning underlined the shift. Defensives and growth sectors took the lead (such as staples, health care but also tech) while energy, industrials and materials sold off 2%. Dow -0.5%, S&P 500 -0.7%, Nasdaq -0.9% and Russell 2000 -1.5%. Futures are somewhat lower this morning too.

FI: It is going to be a busy week in terms of central bank meetings with the main focus on the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the possibility of a 100bp rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, we begin in Sweden with the Riksbank, where 75bp is fully priced in. Furthermore, we have Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the Swiss central bank. We expect that there will be one common factor for all of the central banks, and this is "frontloading" of tighter monetary policy in order to bring down inflation. This should lead to flatter curves 2-10Y and 2-5Y as well as a stronger dollar.

FX: Major G10 crosses ended last week on a quiet note with EUR/USD firmly stuck at parity. USD/JPY remains off peak after BOJ's 'rate check'. SEK, NOK and GBP continued to trade lower vs EUR and USD as equities closed the week in red. All eyes on all the central bank decisions especially the Fed - but also the two Scandies.

Credit: Credit markets ended the week in risk off mode as investors continued to weigh uncertainty from hawkish central banks and stubborn inflation. Itrax main widened around 4bp to close at 112bp, while Itrax Xover widened 17bp to close at 552bp. Primary market activity was relatively muted on Friday.