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Risk assets have been yo-yoing since mid-October, with fundamentals turning increasingly obscure amid the absence of US data, leaving investors hesitant to take on new risk.

Cryptocurrencies have also been flashing mixed signals following the early-October rallies in Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum.

Despite ongoing market cap outflows, the crypto space has made solid progress this year.
Screenshot 2025-11-13 at 11.15.59 AM

Crypto Total Market Cap Weekly Chart, November 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Still, with prices now down roughly 32% from the $4,950 August peak, the hype in ETH has cooled substantially.

Yet, it’s often when fewer people are watching that true opportunities emerge—though the question remains: is this a dip to buy or a reason to panic?

Overstretched tech valuations continue to weigh on markets, as reflected in today's weakness across stock indices, and crypto is facing similar pressure.

From an investment standpoint, the long term will reveal its truth—but for those without a crystal ball, a prudent approach is Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA), which involves gradually building positions over time.

For traders, the focus should stay on support and resistance levels—spotting trends between them and reacting when those levels break.

Let’s now look these levels through a multi-timeframe Ethereum analysis.

Daily overview of the Crypto Market, November 13, 2025 – Source: Finviz

Ethereum (ETH) Multi-timeframe technical analysis

Daily Chart

Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart, November 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Having broken its April 2025 explosive upward channel, the picture for ETH is tilting more bearish, as strong flows have brought the second-Crypto below its $3,500 momentum pivot.

Multiple attempts to break resistances have been met with consequent selloffs, leading to the formation of lower-highs.

A balancing rebound last Tuesday (Nov 4) marked a temporary bottom at $3,053 – the rest will be to see if the bottom holds in an eventual double bottom or if its breaks, but for now these prices are still 8% from here (But never underestimate Crypto volatility!).

4H Chart and levels

Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart, November 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Levels of interest for ETH trading:

Support Levels:

• $2,100 June War support
• $2,500 to 2,700 June Consolidation
• Recent lows $3,053
• $3,500 (+/- $50) Main Current Pivot

Resistance Levels:

• $3,500 (+/- $50) Main Current Pivot
• $3,650 Descending channel highs
• $3,800 September lows
• $4,000 to Dec 2024 top Higher timeframe pivot zone
• $4,950 Current new All-time highs

1H Chart

Ethereum (ETH) 1H Chart, November 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView

ETH is oscillating in a shorter timeframe descending channel which serves as immediate momentum indicator:

Breaking below its support line ($3,300 to $3,330) points at more aggressive selling
Bouncing at the lows of the channel points to a short-term revisit of the $3,500 Pivot Zone.
Further upwards, a break above $3,700 (with preferably a session/weekly close), points to a more stable rebound that may serve for future rallies.

Safe Trades!

The EUR/USD has gained 1.5% since its November 4th bottom, a move that coincided with dovish US private labor data from the Challenger report.

With the U.S. government shutdown beginning to weigh on economic activity, attention has turned toward the Eurozone, which continues to send relatively solid signals:

Inflation remains stable in key economies like Germany and France (see comments from Villeroy), while growth, though modest, remains decent with a 52.5 PMI last week and retail sales up 1% year-over-year.

As confidence grows in the Eurozone’s more politically stable environment—with a few exceptions such as France—and fund managers continue diversifying away from the U.S. dollar, the euro has seen strong dip-buying flows.

Meanwhile, discussions around President Lagarde’s potential successor have emerged, with Knot, Nagel, and De Cos reportedly among the frontrunners—three strong policy voices within the ECB.

By the way, these three members tilt more on the hawkish/conservative side for the Euro, which plays a big role in demand for a currency. This conversation is one to track for the upcoming year, as Christine Lagarde's term finishes in 2027 (except for any early resignation on her part).

Adding to the supportive tone, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced stricter rules on low-cost Chinese imports, a move interpreted as a sign of European strength, as reflected in today’s market reaction (however, there has been some mean reversion since)

Let’s now dive into the EUR/USD rally and spot the key technical levels for the most traded FX pair.

EUR/USD Multi-timeframe technical analysis

Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart, November 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView

EUR/USD has been on a V-shape recovery since last week, allowing the pair to break above its daily descending channel.

With the RSI turning positive and strong daily candles, the reversal looks decisive.

However, bears may find comfort in the 50-Day Moving Average coming as immediate resistance at 1.16625, right at the 1.1650 to 1.17 Pivot Zone.

Keep an eye on this zone which will serve as momentum guidance: breaking above points to a retest of the 1.18 bound, while rejecting it points to further descent (retest of the 1.15 handle).

Overall, the Daily trend looks like one of rangebound action between just below 1.15 to 1.18 until proven the contrary.

4H Chart and technical levels

EUR/USD 4H Chart, November 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:

Resistance Levels

• 1.1650 to 1.17 mid-range Pivot zone
• 1.1750 mini-resistance
• Resistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)
• Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 Zone
• Daily highs 1.1656

Support Levels

• 1.1550 to 1.16 range support
• 4H MA 200 Mini-support 1.16190
• 1.1475 to 1.15 Support Zone
• 1.1350 to 1.14 Support
• Weekly lows 1.15460

1H Chart

EUR/USD 1H Chart, November 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The price action has been evolving in a steep hourly upward channel.

However, some sellers appeared right at the entrance of the Pivot zone mentioned in higher timeframes, with the daily highs stalling at 1.15562.

Maintaining the rejection downward could point to a retest of the 1.16 handle which corroborates with the 50-H MA and the uptrend.

However, breaking new highs now would infer bull-dominance in the pair – Closing around the highs (less than 100 pips) mean that they won't give up this ongoing move.

Safe Trades!

The US dollar always moves in complex ways, influenced by a large multitude of factors.

Some are straightforward, like a demand for the USD when the US economy performs better than its peers or when investors seek exposure to US assets and Stocks.

Some dollar dynamics are more obscure, like the link between dollar strength and expected change in paths for the Fed (sometimes, even a rate cut can boost the dollar – assuming communication is not dovish) or the even more confusing banking demand for dollar funding (cross-currency basis swaps, repo dynamics, etc ...)

All of this goes into fundamental analysis for the Greenback – but how weird was its rise in the middle of the longest ever US government shutdown (that just ended)?

Some might say that the shutdown did not significantly influence markets – and they might be right.

Odds for a December cut have been steadily decreasing since Powell's recent speech at the FOMC rate decision conference, from 98% priced in just a week before the event to the current 54%.

Pricing of the next Fed rate cut, November 13, 2025 – Source: CMEGroup

This change of interest rate pricing could have been the reason behind the rise from 97.90 to a peak of 100.37 in the Dollar Index throughout the Government Shutdown period, but this still seems contradictory.

In any case, for traders, pictures are worth a thousand words – Let's dive right into our multi-timeframe US Dollar Index (DXY) analysis.

DXY multi-timeframe analysis

DXY Daily Chart

Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, November 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The past month's rise, forming an upward channel, was surprisingly tenace despite the fundamentals.

But moving averages, especially Daily, can act as strong resistances – Look at how prices reacted to the 200-Day MA (currently at 100.125), which just caught up to this year's fall in the DXY.

In yesterday's trading, a test of the lower bound of the upward channel failed, leading to this morning's break lower.

As traders still await for public BLS data, momentum corrects back to neutral – Expect a lot of volatility as economic data makes a comeback.

Its downward tilt hints at a more bearish/mean-reverting price action but a close below the channel would be required for confirmation.

4H Chart and technical levels

Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, November 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Levels to place on your DXY charts:

Resistance Levels

• 99.60 to 99.80 mini-resistance
• 100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone
• 100.376 November highs
• Top of channel round 100.650
• Weekly highs & 4H 50-period MA 99.74

Support Levels

• Higher timeframe Pivot 98.80 to 99.00 (immediate test)
• Mini-support 98.50
• Main support 98.00
• Session lows 99.152

1H Chart

Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart, November 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Some small mean-reversion buying is taking place on the shorter timeframe, but below the steep trendline, bears are in control as prices trend in an hourly bear-channel.

Two scenarios can unfold from here:

• A reversal from the channel lows breaks the trendline which hints at a pullback between 99.40 to 99.50 (retest of October channel bound)
• Sellers break the daily lows and test the 98.80 to 99.00 pivot zone

As breakout scenarios don't seem to be materializing for now, the price action looks balanced, but still expect some volatility with this afternoon's Fed speeches: Musalem (2025 voter) and Hammack (2026 voter) go back to back at 13:15.

Fed's Kashkari (2026 voter) will also appear in a few minutes.

And don't forget the 30-year bond auction at 13:00 which can affect the USD and have been getting some traction as of late.

Safe Trades!

Silver: ⬇️ Sell

• Silver reversed from resistance zone
•  Likely to fall to support level 50.00

Silver recently reversed from the resistance zone between the strong resistance level 54.00 (stopped the previous sharp impulse wave (5) in October) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (3).

Given the strength of the resistance level 54.00 and the overbought daily Stochastic, Silver can be expected to fall to the next support level 50.00.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly signaled that the December 9–10 FOMC meeting remains a genuine live decision, saying it is “premature to say definitely no cut, or definitely a cut.” Daly stressed she has “an open mind” and has not reached a final view.

While Daly reiterated that the overall direction of policy is downward, she cautioned that the exact timing of the next move hinges on the incoming data. Recent acceleration in services inflation complicates the picture, as the Fed’s 50bps of cuts earlier this year have helped stabilize the labor market by cooling wage pressures and supporting job demand.

Daly said policymakers must “collect more information” before making any call on December, noting that the Fed faces risks on both sides of its dual mandate.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack signaled a firmer stance against further rate cuts. In a MarketWatch interview, she expressed her opposition to additional easing unless the economic outlook deteriorates, warning that markets may be misinterpreting the Fed’s tolerance for inflation.

Hammack said that some investors now believe the Fed may quietly accept inflation “just below 3%,” calling that notion a threat to the central bank’s credibility. While she continues to monitor the labor market, Hammack said she sees little risk of a downturn.

Looking ahead, she expects the economy to strengthen into 2026, with businesses likely to increase investment amid easier credit conditions and supportive equity markets. “At this point, I don’t think there is more that monetary policy can do,” she said.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.22; (P) 154.64; (R1) 155.22; More...

No change in USD/JPY's outlook and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rally from 139.87 should target 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. Firm break there will pave the way to 158.86 key structural resistance. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 152.81 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 149.37 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7961; (P) 0.7986; (R1) 0.8005; More…

USD/CHF's fall from 0.8123 continues today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.7872 support. Firm break there will argue that larger down trend is ready to resume through 0.7828 low. On the upside, above 0.8010 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1571; (P) 1.1585; (R1) 1.1606; More…

Immediate focus is now on 55 D EMA (now at 1.1619) as rebound from 1.1467 extends today. Sustained break there will argue that fall from 1.1971 has completed as a correction only, and bring further rise to 1.1727 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1539 should resume the fall from 1.1971 through 1.1467 support.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1306) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook outlook bearish.