Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4841; (P) 1.4911; (R1) 1.4977; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral with current recovery. But further decline is in favor with 1.5043 minor resistance intact. Break of 1.4759 support should confirm that corrective rise from 1.4318 has completed at 1.5396 after rejection by 1.5354 support turned resistance. Deeper fall should then be seen back to retest 1.4318 low. On the upside, however, break of 1.5043 will bring stronger rebound back towards 1.5396.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 1.5354 support turned resistance, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 1.5398), maintain medium term bearishness. That is, larger down trend from 1.9799 is not completed yet. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9834; (P) 0.9893; (R1) 0.9931; More....

EUR/CHF's down trend resumed after brief consolidations. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Next target is 0.9650 long term projection level. On the upside, above 0.9953 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again, and bring consolidations, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 55 week EMA affirmed medium term bearishness. Long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to target 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. On the upside, break of 1.0513 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2947; (P) 1.2999; (R1) 1.3057; More...

Range trading continues in USD/CAD and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is mildly in favor with 1.2818 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.3082 and sustained trading above 1.3022 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications, and bring up trend resumption. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, break of 1.2818 minor support will bring deeper fall back to 1.2516 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6682; (P) 0.6769; (R1) 0.6822; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside. Current down trend from 0.8006 should now target next fibonacci level at 0.6461. On the upside, break of 0.6873 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will remains bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 could still be a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). But current downside acceleration is raising the chance that it's a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.34; (P) 137.05; (R1) 138.12; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside and outlook is unchanged. Current up trend should target 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 134.73 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9782; (P) 0.9813; (R1) 0.9863; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside and outlook is unchanged. Consolidation pattern from 1.0063 should have completed with three waves down to 0.9493 already. Further rally would be seen to retest 1.0063 high first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, break of 0.9670 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 0.8756 (2021 low) is still in progress. Next target is 1.0342 (2016 high). Sustained break there will resume long term up trend from 0.7065 (2011 low). This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9471 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9989; (P) 1.0086 (R1) 1.0139; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Current down trend should target 100% projection of 1.1184 to 1.0348 from 1.0773 at 0.9937, which is close to parity. Firm break there could prompt downside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 0.9420. On the upside, break of 1.0189 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook stays bearish as long as 1.0358 support turned resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1827; (P) 1.1932; (R1) 1.1998; More...

GBP/USD's down trend resumes after brief consolidations. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 1.2666 to 1.1932 from 1.2405 at 1.1671. Decisive break there will target a test on 1.1409 long term support. On the upside, above 1.2055 minor resistance will now indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409 (2020 low), or resuming the longer term down trend. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2666 resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low. However, firm break of 1.2666 will bring stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.3065).

Dollar is staying as the strongest major currency in the market for now. Yen and Swiss Franc are not performing too badly, as supported by mild risk-off sentiment. But Canadian Dollar is also resilient, awaiting BoC's decision on whether to deliver a jumbo rate hike. Aussie and Euro are currently the worst, while Sterling is also week. These three have already broken through recent lows against the greenback.

Technically, CAD/JPY is worth some attention for the coming days. Price actions fro m107.19 are clearly corrective while the cross is also supported comfortably above 55 day EMA. It has the better potential to follow USD/JPY for an upside breakout. Break of 107.19 will extend the larger up trend towards 110 handle next.

In Asia, Nikkei dropped -1.77%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.12%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.95%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.11%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0007 at 0.249. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.52%. S&P 500 dropped -1.15%. NASDAQ dropped -2.26%. 10-year yield dropped -0.011 to 2.991.

Fed Bostic supports another 75bps rate hike in Jul

Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic said yesterday, "the data that came in the last several months really pointed to a need for us to get closer to that neutral stance faster,"

"I'm confident that the economy will be able to withstand this next move. I would support a 75 basis point" rate hike at the July FOMC meeting, he added.

Beyond July, the decisions will depend on incoming economic data. "If demand comes down much faster than we expected or supply comes back, I will be comfortable pulling off" further rate increases, Bostic said.

Separately, St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard said, "now we have lots of inflation, but the question is, can we get back to 2% without disrupting the economy? I think we can."

Australia Westpac consumer sentiment dropped to 83.8, comparable to previous major shocks

Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index dropped from 86.4 to to 83.8 in July. The confidence has been falling every month this year, and it's now -19.7% below December's level.

Westpac said that both level and pace of deterioration are "comparable to previous major shocks". It added that rate fears were intensifying, with 73% polled expecting rates to rise more than 1%.

As for RBA policy, Westpac expects another 50bps rate hike on August 2, taking interest rate to 1.85%. That would be near to Westpac's assessed "neutral zone" of 1.5-2.0%. It expects RBA to adopt a "more cautious approach" once policy moved to "neutral", and pause the tightening first after August's hike.

Australia NAB business confidence dropped to 1, but conditions held up

Australia NAB business confidence dropped from 6 to 1 in June. Business conditions dropped from 15 to 13. Looking at some details, trading conditions dropped from 21 to 18. Profitability conditions dropped from 16 to 12. Employment conditions dropped from 12 to 10.

"Confidence sank below average in June as inflation and interest rate hikes clouded the outlook," said NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster. "Confidence in the retail sector took a significant hit, falling more than 20pts to be well into negative territory, reflecting concerns about the outlook for household spending."

"While confidence fell, business conditions held up in June," said Oster. "Conditions remain strong across the states and in most industries. Construction continues to be the only real outlier with building costs weighing, despite a healthy pipeline of work in the sector."

Looking ahead

Germany ZEW economic sentiment will be the main focus for the rest of the day.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1827; (P) 1.1932; (R1) 1.1998; More...

GBP/USD's down trend resumes after brief consolidations. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 1.2666 to 1.1932 from 1.2405 at 1.1671. Decisive break there will target a test on 1.1409 long term support. On the upside, above 1.2055 minor resistance will now indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409 (2020 low), or resuming the longer term down trend. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2666 resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low. However, firm break of 1.2666 will bring stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.3065).

Economic Indicators Update

EURJPY is tumbling below the medium-term ascending trend line, changing the bullish outlook to neutral. The RSI is sloping downwards in the negative region, while the MACD is losing momentum below its trigger and zero lines. In trend indicators, the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) is turning lower, approaching the 40-day SMA for a possible bearish cross.

If sellers sink deeper, than the price may meet the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 124.40 to 144.25 at 136.75. Steeper declines under the line would have to tackle a more durable support section from the 50.0% Fibonacci at 134.30 and the 200-day SMA at 133.18. Extending lower could encounter the 132.60 barrier and the 61.8% Fibonacci at 131.90, shifting the outlook to bearish.

On the other hand, if buying interest picks up, early tough resistance could occur at the 23.6% Fibonacci of 139.55, where the 40-day SMA also resides. A violation of this level may shoot the pair to challenge the 20-day SMA at 141.00 ahead of 142.35. Even higher, the price may surge towards the more-than-seven-year peak of 144.25.

Overall, the very near-term picture remains negative below the ascending line; however, in the bigger picture, a bearish outlook may come only if there were a break below the 200-day SMA.