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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0359; (P) 1.0384; (R1) 1.0406; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, decisive break of 1.0513 will resume the whole rebound from 0.9970, for 1.0610 structural resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0216 will turn near term outlook bearish for 1.0086 support next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.

Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment rose from -34.3 to -28.0 in June, slightly below expectation of -27.5. Current Situation Index rose from -36.5 to -27.6, above expectation of -31.0.

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment rose from -29.5 to -28.0, below expectation of -24.3. Current Situation Index rose 8.6 pts to -26.4.

"Financial market experts are less pessimistic about the economy. However, the economy is still exposed to numerous risks, such as the effects of the sanctions against Russia, the unclear pandemic situation in China and the gradual change of course in monetary policy. So although expectations have improved, they are still deep in negative territory," comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach on current expectations.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2818; (P) 1.2859; (R1) 1.2940; More...

USD/CAD's rise from 1.2516 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.3075 resistance. Sustained trading above 1.3022 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, below 1.2751 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6875; (P) 0.6963; (R1) 0.7014; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for retesting 0.6828 low. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 0.8006 to 0.6756/60 cluster support. On the upside, above 0.7033 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7282 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could still be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7660 resistance will confirm that such corrective pattern has completed, and larger up trend is ready to resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.61; (P) 134.41; (R1) 135.21; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 135.18. Downside should be contained by 131.34 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 135.18 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9898; (P) 0.9946; (R1) 1.0019; More...

A temporary top is in place at 0.9993 and intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first. On the upside, above 0.9993 will target 1.0063 resistance. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. Next target is 100% projection of 0.9193 to 1.0063 from 0.9543 at 1.0413. On the downside, below 0.9764 minor support will extend the corrective pattern from 1.0063 with another falling leg, and turn intraday bias to the downside.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.8756 (2021 low) already. Rise from 0.8756 is likely a medium term up trend of its own. Next target is 1.0237/0342 resistance zone. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9471 resistance turned support holds. However, sustained break of 0.9471 will extend long term range trading with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2051; (P) 1.2188; (R1) 1.2269; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside at this point. Break of 1.2154 confirms down trend resumption. Next target is Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3297 to 1.2154 from 1.2666 at 1.1960. Break there will target 100% projection at 1.1523 next. On the upside, above 1.2310 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409 (2020 low), or resuming the longer term down trend. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2666 resistance holds. On resumption, next target is 1.1409 low.

Bitcoin collapsed 15.1% on Monday, ending the day around $23,200 and slipped another 10% on Tuesday morning on inertia before finding support from buyers after touching $20,800.

Ethereum has lost 7.8% in the past 24 hours and more than 30% in the week. The top ten altcoins show buyer optimism, with Solana up 9.5% and Cardano up 7.3%. Among the decline, leaders are Tron with -8% and BNB with -3.5%.

The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, sank 6% overnight to $0.965 trillion. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was down 3 points to 8 by Tuesday and remains in “extreme fear”.

Bitcoin collapsed on Monday at its highest since the March 2020 crisis amid falling stock markets and a rising US dollar. Bitcoin closed the December 2020 gap by feeling the area below the 200-week simple moving average. But in our view, Bitcoin needs to touch levels near 19500: the 2017 peak, which is also where the most aggressive growth phase started at the end of 2020, for a definitive return of long-term buyers.

A similar three-point checklist for Ether is also incomplete. ETHUSD touched the 200-week average and dived below the peak levels of the previous cycle in 2018. However, the most aggressive rally at the end of 2020 came from $740, which is well below the day’s lows today at $1075. However, the latter target may prove too ambitious for the bears.

Along with BTC, cryptocurrency-focused stocks also collapsed. MicroStrategy shares lost 25.2%, while Coinbase dropped 11.4%.

The key trigger for the sell-off in the crypto sphere is the US inflation hike to 8.6% on Friday, followed by speculation that the Fed could raise rates by 75 points at Wednesday’s meeting or at the end of July.

According to IntoTheBlock, about half of cryptocurrency holders are now incurring losses. According to Crypto.com CEO Chris Marszalek, the market has entered a phase of “crypto winter” that could drag on, according to Crypto.com CEO Chris Marszalek.

Cryptocurrency lending platform Celsius has suspended withdrawals, exchanges and transactions of digital assets due to “extreme market conditions”. Tether has ruled out the impact of the Celsius incident on USDT reserves.

The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has warned of the risks associated with Stablecoin, citing the collapse of the Terra project. The US Treasury Department believes that the country’s authorities should be more proactive in seeking to regulate the crypto industry, given the active digitalisation of the financial sector.

EURJPY is rebounding off the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 124.40 to 144.25 at 139.55 and is returning above the 140.00 round number.

According to the MACD, negative momentum could push for further losses in the short-term as the indicator tries to fall below its trigger line. However, the RSI is advancing and is holding above its neutral threshold of 50, confirming the latest bullish movement.

On the upside, resistance could occur around the more-than-seven-year-high of 144.25 ahead of the high of December 2014 at 149.25. Higher still, the inside swing low of March 2008 at 151.70 would increasingly come into scope.

Further declines may meet support around the 140.00 psychological mark and the 23.6% Fibonacci of 139.55. Not far below, support could come from the three-month uptrend line around 138.00. Even lower, a break of the diagonal line may open the way for a test of the 40-day simple moving average (SMA) near 137.60, ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci of 136.75.

Overall, the very short-term outlook appears mostly bearish, but the broader outlook remains bullish for the most part.

GBPUSD switched to a recovery mode on Monday following last week’s brutal sell-off, which worsened the broad outlook and squeezed the price to a new two-year low of 1.2100.

The previous low of 1.2154 is currently limiting upside pressures as the momentum indicators provide little hope for a meaningful rally. Explaining that, the slight upturn in the RSI is not convincing yet since the indicator remains well dipped in the bearish area, while the negative slope in the Stochastics suggests that the bears have more fuel in the tank. Moreover, the MACD seems to have started a new bearish round below its red signal and zero lines.

If sellers dominate below the 1.2100 round-level, the next pivot point could develop somewhere between the 1.2074 low from May 2020 and the 1.2000 psychological number, where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 – 2021 uptrend is also placed. The 1.1970 restrictive zone may immediately attract attention before the decline sharpens towards the 1.1765 handle.

In the positive scenario, where the pair snaps the nearby block at 1.2154, the recovery could continue towards the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.2312. An extension higher could initially pause near the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2483 and then face a more challenging battle within the 1.2545 – 1.2600 zone, formed by two tentative descending trendlines and the 50-day SMA. If the latter proves easy to claim and the price crawls above May’s high of 1.2665, the next target could be the bottom-line of the broken bearish channel seen around 1.2770.

In short, although GBPUSD is pushing for some recovery, buying interest is currently looking weak. Hence, the market is expected to face some extra losses before the next bullish phase takes place.