Sample Category Title

GBP/USD's recovery from 1.2154 extended higher last week but stayed below 1.2637 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.2154 will resume the down trend from 1.4248. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.2637 will confirm short term bottoming at 1.2154. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.2789).

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) at least at the same degree as the rise from 1.1409 (2020 low). That is, fall from 1.4248 could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409, or resuming the longer term down trend. In either case, deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2999 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low.

In the longer term picture, rebound from 1.1409 long term bottom should have completed at 1.4248 already, well ahead of 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. The development argues that price actions from 1.1409 are developing into a corrective pattern only. That is, long term bearishness is retained for resuming the downside from 2.1161 (2007 high) at a later stage.

USD/CHF edged higher to 1.0063 last week but reversed sharply from there. A short term top should be in place. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside for deeper correction. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9193 to 1.0063 at 0.9731 will target 55 day EMA (now at 0.9589). But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement at 0.9525 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9859 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.0063 high.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.8756 (2021 low) already. Rise from 0.8756 is likely a medium term up trend of its own. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.8756 to 0.9471 from 0.9149 at 1.0306, which is close to 1.0342 (2016 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9459 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, current development argues that the correction from 1.0342 (2016 high) has completed at 0.8756 (2020 low) already. Rise form 0.7065 (2011 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 1.0342 will confirm and target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 (2000 high) to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

AUD/USD's rebound last week argues that a short term bottom was formed at 0.6828, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7187). On the downside, though, break of 0.6948 will resume larger fall from 0.8006 through 0.6828 low, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). However, rejection by 0.8135 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

USD/CAD stayed in consolidation below 1.3075 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rally is in favor with 1.2712 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.3075 will resume the rise from 1.2401. Sustained trading above 1.3022 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, however, break of 1.2712 support will indicate rejection by 1.3022 key fibonacci resistance, and bring deeper decline back to 1.2401 support.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, firm break of 1.2061 support will argue that USD/CAD has already started a long term down trend. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.

GBP/JPY stayed in correction from 168.40 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 155.57 will extend the correction towards 150.96 key structural support. Nevertheless, on the upside, firm break of 162.16 will indicate that the correction has completed, and bring retest of 168.40 high next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 150.95 support holds, even in case of deep pull back. However, firm break of 150.95 will indicate rejection by 167.93, and bearish trend reversal.

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 could be the third leg the the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Further rise will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 148.31) holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. will pave the way to 195.86 (2015 high).

EUR/JPY's correction from 139.99 extended last week. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 132.63 will resume the fall and target 61.8% retracement of 124.37 to 139.99 at 130.33. On the upside, break of 138.33 will indicate that the correction has completed, and bring retest of 139.99 high next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Next target will be 100% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 144.06. In any case, outlook will now remain bullish as long as 124.37 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, focus stays on 137.49 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will raise the chance that whole rise from 94.11 (2012 low) is resuming through 149.76 resistance. This will be a slightly favored case for now, as long as 124.37 support holds.

EUR/GBP stayed in consolidation from 0.8617 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further rise will remain in favor as long as 0.8365 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.8617 will resume rise from 0.8201 medium term bottom to 0.8697 medium term fibonacci level. However, break of 0.8365 will dampen this bullish view, and turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom could be in place at 0.8201, on bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. Rise from there could either be a correction to the down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high), or a medium term up trend itself. In either case, further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Sustained break there will target 61.8% retracement at 0.9003.

In the long term picture, current development argues that fall from 0.9499 is probably the third leg of the pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9499 at 0.7917 will pave the way back to 0.6935 (2015 low) and probably below. However, sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 0.8604) will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rebound.

EUR/AUD's decline last week argues that corrective rebound from 1.4318 has completed with three waves up to 1.5227, ahead of 1.5354 resistance. But as a temporary low was formed at 1.4885, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, below 1.4885 will target 1.4597 support first. Break there will bring retest of 1.4318 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.5277 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low).

EUR/CHF's decline last week argues that corrective rebound from 0.9970 has completed with waves up to 1.0513, after rejection by 1.0505 key resistance. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.0186 support first. Break there will target 1.0086 next. On the upside, above 1.0359 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will now stay on the downside as long as 1.0513 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.

In the long term picture, capped below 55 month EMA, EUR/CHF is seen as extending the multi-decade down trend. There is no prospect of a bullish reversal until some sustained trading above the 55 month EMA (now at 1.0876).

It was another roller-coaster week. Swiss Franc ended as the strongest one after SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan surprisingly said it's ready to act if inflation solidified. But it should reminded that he reiterated the readiness on intervention too. Euro was somewhat pressured due to selling in crosses. Dollar, Canadian and Yen were the worst performing ones.

Stocks in the US displayed some resilience in spite of the volatility. There is prospect of fulfilling an oversold bounce soon. At the same time, benchmark yields were extending their near term consolidation. The developments could cap any rally attempt in Dollar, and even trigger some deeper selloff for the near term. Meanwhile, as Chinese market stabilizes, Aussie could try to lead other commodity currencies for an extended rally ahead.

"Delayed" oversold bounce due for US stocks

It's another week of roller-coaster ride in US stock markets. But after all, DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ did manage to close above prior week's low. While the call for bottoming last week was too early, the outlook still warrant an oversold bounce very soon.

S&P 500 has already met correction target of 38.2% retracement of 2191.86 to 4818.62 at 3815.20. A firm break above 4090.72 resistance in the coming days would set the stage for stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 4248.79) in early June.

Similarly, NASDAQ's low at 11035.68 last week was just an inch above correction target of 100% projection of 16212.22 to 12587.88 from 14646.90 at 11022.56. A rebound is due and break of 11988.42 resistance in the coming days would set the stage for further rise back to 55 day EMA (now at 12870.73).

10-year yield extending correction, more downside

US 10-year yield extended the correction from 3.167 short term top last week. Considering that it faced an important resistance at 3.248 (2018 high), the correction should take some more time to complete. Deeper fall is expected towards 55 day EMA (now at 2.628). But strong support should be seen fro 38.2% retracement of 1.682 to 3.167 at 2.600 to contain downside to bring rebound. The range for the corrective pattern should then be set, between 2.600 and 3.167.

Dollar index risks deeper near term correction before up trend resumption

Extended correction in US 10-year yield would exert some downside pressure in Dollar. If markets do turn risk on as expected above, the pull back in Dollar could accelerate. Dollar index's retreat from 105.00 is so far shallow. But firm break of 102.35 support will raise the chance that it's correcting whole up trend from 89.53. In this case, deeper decline would be seen back to 55 day EMA (101.14) and possibly below.

But even in the bearish case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 89.53 to 105.00 at 99.09 to bring rebound. DXY is expected to resume the long term up trend through 105.00 at a later stage.

Chinese Yuan to extend rebound as short term bottom formed

If the markets develop as above, with rebound in stocks and extended pull back in yield and Dollar, commodity currencies could have a chance to stage a more sustainable rebound. In particular, the selloff in Chinese yuan should have passed its climax. Rebound in the Chinese currency together with stabilization in the markets here, could give Aussie (and Kiwi too) an extra hand.

The firm break of 6.8730 support indicates short term topping in USD/CNH at 6.8372, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. That also came after initial rejection by 61.8% retracement of 7.1961 to 6.3057 at 6.8560. Deeper fall would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 6.3057 to 6.8372 at 6.6342 to contain downside to bring rebound. Nevertheless, sustained break there will raise the chance of deeper fall back to 61.8% retracement at 6.5087.

Break of 91.15 in AUD/JPY would confirm completion of correction

To secure a sustainable rally, Aussie will also have to overcome Yen too. That is, AUD/JPY will need to break through 91.15 minor resistance. Such development would add to the case that whole corrective fall from 95.73 has completed with three waves down to 87.28. Further rise should be seen back to 94.00/95.73 resistance zone. That could also help set AUD/JPY up for medium term up trend resumption.

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF's decline last week argues that corrective rebound from 0.9970 has completed with waves up to 1.0513, after rejection by 1.0505 key resistance. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.0186 support first. Break there will target 1.0086 next. On the upside, above 1.0359 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will now stay on the downside as long as 1.0513 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.

In the long term picture, capped below 55 month EMA, EUR/CHF is seen as extending the multi-decade down trend. There is no prospect of a bullish reversal until some sustained trading above the 55 month EMA (now at 1.0876).