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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1529; (P) 1.1583; (R1) 1.1619; More…

Focus remains on 1.1540 support in EUR/USD. Firm break there will resume the fall from 1.1917 and target 1.1390 support, or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. On the upside, though, break of 1.1727 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1778, and then retest of 1.1917 high instead.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1301) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.73; (P) 153.59; (R1) 155.02; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Current rally is part of the whole rise from 139.87 and should target 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. Firm break there will target 158.86 resistance next. On the downside, below 153.24 resistance turned support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 151.52 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 145.47 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3105; (P) 1.3162; (R1) 1.3207; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside with focus on 1.3140 cluster (38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.3142). Decisive break there will complete a double top pattern (1.3787/3725) and turn near term outlook bearish. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2744 next. On the upside, above 1.3247 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still seen as a corrective move. Further rally could be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. But strong resistance could emerge from 1.4248 (2021 high) to limit upside. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3191) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7984; (P) 0.8011; (R1) 0.8045; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for the moment. Corrective pattern from 0.7878 is in its third leg. Further rise should be seen to 0.8075 resistance. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 0.7828 to 0.8075 from 0.7872 at 0.8119. On the downside, below 0.7974 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6526; (P) 0.6562; (R1) 0.6591; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and further rise is mildly in favor. Above 0.6616 will resume the rebound from 0.6439 to retest 0.6706 high. However, break of 0.6524 resistance turned support will dampen the bullish case, and and bring deeper fall back to 0.6439 support instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3937; (P) 1.3975; (R1) 1.4024; More...

USD/CAD's strong rebound suggests that pullback from 1.4078 has completed at 1.3886. That also keeps the rally from 1.3538 intact. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.4078 resistance first. On the downside, though, break of 1.3886 will resume the fall to rising channel support (now at 1.3845).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Based on current momentum, rise from 1.3538 is the second leg, and a third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3725 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3725 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

Risk sentiment was mixed across Asian markets today, with Japan and South Korea extending record-breaking rallies while Chinese and Hong Kong stocks to underperformed. Nikkei 225 surged past the 52,000 mark for the first time, driven by strong momentum in the technology sector. Gains were led by heavyweight semiconductor and AI-related firms, buoyed by robust overnight earnings from Amazon and Apple in the U.S.

The latest Tokyo CPI data showed renewed upward pressure on prices, bringing the BoJ a step closer to another rate hike. Yet, for now, investors appear undeterred by the prospect of higher borrowing costs, viewing the data as confirmation of Japan’s improving growth dynamics rather than a policy risk.

South Korea’s KOSPI also hit new record highs, powered by relief in the trade sector following this week’s U.S.–Korea tariff agreement. The deal will see Washington lower auto tariffs on South Korean imports from 25% to 15%, in exchange for a USD 350B Korean investment package in the U.S. The agreement was hailed as a major win for Seoul’s export-heavy economy, with vehicles—comprising roughly one-third of South Korea’s shipments to the U.S.—expected to benefit most.

By contrast, China and Hong Kong markets lagged, with investors cautious following weak PMI manufacturing data showing continued contraction in factory activity. The data reinforced concerns that the Chinese economy remains under strain from the trade war and subdued domestic demand. At the same time, the Trump–Xi tariff truce, while easing immediate tensions, also reduces the urgency for Beijing to deliver more stimulus, leading investors to temper expectations for fresh policy easing.

In the currency markets, activity was quieter after a volatile week. Aussie continues to outperform, supported by resilient inflation data and strong risk sentiment. Loonie and Dollar follow closely behind, while Sterling remains at the bottom amid U.K. fiscal worries. Swiss Franc and Yen are also weaker as safe-haven demand fades. Euro and Kiwi sit in the middle of the pack.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.95%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.81%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.67%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.13%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.01 at 1.657. Overnight, DOW fell -0.23%. S&P 500 fell -0.99%. NASDAQ fell -1.57%. 10-year yield rose 0.035 to 4.093.

Japan's Tokyo core CPI surges to 2.8%, BoJ hike timing still unclear

Japan’s Tokyo CPI figures for October showed broad-based acceleration in inflation, adding to pressure on the BoJ but stopping short of forcing an immediate policy move. Core CPI (excluding fresh food) climbed from 2.5% to 2.8% yoy, beating expectations of 2.6%. Core-core measure (excluding fresh food and energy) matched that rise, also hitting 2.8%, while headline inflation accelerated from 2.5% to 2.8%.

The increase was driven partly by a 38.4% surge in rice prices and the expiration of water-fee subsidies, which lifted utility costs. Food inflation, excluding fresh items, remained high at 6.7%, though slightly slower than September’s 6.9%. Meanwhile, services inflation was relatively steady at 1.6%, well below the 4.1% gain in goods prices. The mix suggests cost pressures are persistent but not yet translating into sustained demand-led inflation.

At its meeting yesterday, the BoJ left the policy rate unchanged at 0.50%. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the likelihood of the Bank’s baseline projection materializing had “heightened somewhat,” but reiterated that the BoJ wants to await “a bit more data” before considering another rate hike. He emphasized the need to observe whether firms continue to raise wages in response to higher U.S. tariffs before committing to further tightening. Overall, the latest inflation data and BoJ remarks reinforce expectations that the next rate hike remains a coin toss between December and January.

Japan's industrial production rises 2.2% mom in September, indecisive fluctuation continues

Japan’s industrial production rose 2.2% mom in September, beating expectations of 1.6% and marking the first increase in three months. However, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry kept its assessment unchanged, describing output as “fluctuating indecisively,” highlighting that the recovery remains fragile.

According to METI’s survey, manufacturers expect production to grow 1.9% mom in October but shrink -0.9% in November, pointing to continued short-term volatility.

Gains in September were broad-based, with 13 of 15 industrial sectors expanding. Notably, production machinery output surged 6.2% mom, driven by strong shipments of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China and Taiwan. In contrast, transport equipment (excluding motor vehicles) and steel and non-ferrous metals recorded modest declines.

Meanwhile, retail sales rose 0.5% yoy, missing expectations of 0.7%, reflecting soft consumer demand despite improving wage and price trends.

China NBS Manufacturing PMI falls to 49 in October, contraction deepens

China’s official manufacturing PMI fell from 49.8 to 49.0 in October, missing expectations of 49.7 and marking the lowest reading in six months. The sector has now been in contraction since April. The new orders index dropped to 48.8 from 49.7, while the production sub-index declined sharply to 49.7 from 51.9, pointing to a broad slowdown in both output and demand.

NBS chief statistician Huo Lihui attributed the weaker reading to “the early release of some demand before the National Day holiday” and a “more complex international environment” that continues to weigh on activity.

Outside the factory sector, Non-Manufacturing PMI edged up slightly to 50.1 from 50.0, though it also missed forecasts of 50.2. As a result, the Composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, slipped to 50.0 from 50.6.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3937; (P) 1.3975; (R1) 1.4024; More...

USD/CAD's strong rebound suggests that pullback from 1.4078 has completed at 1.3886. That also keeps the rally from 1.3538 intact. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.4078 resistance first. On the downside, though, break of 1.3886 will resume the fall to rising channel support (now at 1.3845).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Based on current momentum, rise from 1.3538 is the second leg, and a third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3725 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3725 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

China’s official manufacturing PMI fell from 49.8 to 49.0 in October, missing expectations of 49.7 and marking the lowest reading in six months. The sector has now been in contraction since April. The new orders index dropped to 48.8 from 49.7, while the production sub-index declined sharply to 49.7 from 51.9, pointing to a broad slowdown in both output and demand.

NBS chief statistician Huo Lihui attributed the weaker reading to “the early release of some demand before the National Day holiday” and a “more complex international environment” that continues to weigh on activity.

Outside the factory sector, Non-Manufacturing PMI edged up slightly to 50.1 from 50.0, though it also missed forecasts of 50.2. As a result, the Composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, slipped to 50.0 from 50.6.

Key Highlights

• USD/JPY regained momentum and traded above 153.00.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support at 152.60 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD is at risk of more downside below 1.1550.
• Bitcoin trimmed gains and traded below $110,000.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar remained well-bid above 151.50 against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY started a fresh increase above 152.00 and 153.00.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above 153.00, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The pair even surpassed 154.20 and traded to a new multi-week high.

On the upside, the pair faces resistance near the 154.50 level. The next hurdle could be near 155.00. A close above 155.00 resistance might push the pair to 155.50. Any more gains could set the pace for a steady increase toward 156.20.

On the downside, the pair might find support at 153.50. The main support might be 152.80. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 152.60.

A close below the 152.60 zone could start a major pullback toward 151.50. Any more losses might open the doors for a test of 150.00.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair is declining, and there are chances of more losses below the 1.1500 pivot level in the near term.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• US Personal Income for Sep 2025 (MoM) - Forecast +0.4%, versus +0.4% previous.
• US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure for Sep 2025 (MoM) - Forecast +0.2%, versus +0.2% previous.
• Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index for Oct 2025 – Forecast 42.3, versus 40.6 previous.

Japan’s industrial production rose 2.2% mom in September, beating expectations of 1.6% and marking the first increase in three months. However, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry kept its assessment unchanged, describing output as “fluctuating indecisively,” highlighting that the recovery remains fragile.

According to METI’s survey, manufacturers expect production to grow 1.9% mom in October but shrink -0.9% in November, pointing to continued short-term volatility.

Gains in September were broad-based, with 13 of 15 industrial sectors expanding. Notably, production machinery output surged 6.2% mom, driven by strong shipments of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China and Taiwan. In contrast, transport equipment (excluding motor vehicles) and steel and non-ferrous metals recorded modest declines.

Meanwhile, retail sales rose 0.5% yoy, missing expectations of 0.7%, reflecting soft consumer demand despite improving wage and price trends.