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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3902; (P) 1.3928; (R1) 1.3969; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.4078 should extend to rising channel support (now at 1.3842). Sustained break there will be a sign of bearish reversal. That is, rebound from has completed at 1.4078, and further fall would be seen to 1.3725 support for confirmation. On the upside, though, above 1.3969 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Based on current momentum, rise from 1.3538 is the second leg, and a third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3725 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3725 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6548; (P) 0.6583; (R1) 0.6609; More...

A temporary top is formed at 0.6616 in AUD/USD with current retreat and intraday bias is turned neutral. Outlook is unchanged that corrective fall from 0.6706 should have completed with three waves to 0.6439. Above 0.6616 will target a retest on 0.6706 high next. However, break of 0.6524 resistance turned support will dampen this view, and bring deeper fall back to 0.6439 support instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1564; (P) 1.1615; (R1) 1.1652; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as sideway trading continues. On the downside, below 1.1540 will resume the fall from 1.1917 and target 1.1390 support, or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. On the upside, though, break of 1.1727 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1778, and then retest of 1.1917 high instead.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1301) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3130; (P) 1.3206; (R1) 1.3270; More...

Immediate focus is now on 1.3140 cluster (38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.3142) as GBP/USD's fall extended. Strong support is expected there to contain downside to complete the corrective pattern from 1.3787. On the upside, above 1.3247 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. However, decisive break of 1.3140/2 will complete a double top pattern (1.3787/3725) and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still seen as a corrective move. Further rally could be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. But strong resistance could emerge from 1.4248 (2021 high) to limit upside. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3191) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7943; (P) 0.7981; (R1) 0.8037; More…

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.7872 resumed higher and the development suggests that corrective pattern from 0.7878 is extending with another rising leg. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.8075 resistance first. For now, risk will be mildly on the upside as long as 0.7924 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.83; (P) 152.45; (R1) 153.35; More...

USD/JPY's rebound from 151.52 is still capped below 153.26 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral for now. On the upside, firm break of 153.26 will resume larger rally from 139.87. Next target is 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. However, break of 151.52 will extend the corrective pattern from 153.26 with another falling leg, and target 149.37 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 145.47 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

Dollar tried to rebound overnight after markets pared back expectations for a December Fed rate cut, but momentum faded quickly in Asia. Optimism over a thaw in U.S.–China relations quickly reversed the rally attempt.

Fed’s three-way split decision to cut the federal funds rate by 25bps to 3.75–4.00% was interpreted as slightly more hawkish than expected. While Governor Stephen Miran again voted for a deeper 50bps move—consistent with his persistent dovish stance—the surprise came from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, who dissented in favor of holding steady.

More importantly, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized during his press conference that another rate cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion.” He added that there were “strongly differing views” among policymakers on how to proceed, reinforcing the notion that the policy debate is far from settled.

Following Powell’s remarks, Fed funds futures repriced swiftly, now implying roughly a 70% chance of another 25bps cut in December, down from 90% before the meeting. The adjustment suggests investors are reassessing the pace and extent of policy easing heading into 2026 amid ongoing inflation and employment concerns.

Meanwhile, the Trump–Xi summit produced tangible progress. US President Donald Trump declared that “we have a deal,” announcing a one-year agreement on rare earths and critical minerals and halving fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese imports. Trump also confirmed that total tariffs on Chinese exports will be reduced from 57% to 47%. He added that he would visit China in April, while Xi is expected to visit the U.S. "sometime after that".

Markets welcomed the outcome as a sign of easing trade tensions. Risk-sensitive currencies such as New Zealand and Australian Dollars leading gains. Kiwi was the day’s top performer so far, followed by Aussie and Swiss Franc.

Yen, meanwhile, weakened after the BoJ stood pat. Forecasts and language were largely steady. From a policy perspective, a December rate hike remains a 50/50 call, contingent on both incoming data and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s approach to monetary normalization. Dollar was the second weakest major on the day, with Loonie rounding out the bottom three. Meanwhile, Sterling steadied after a bruising week and traded mid-pack with Euro.

Focus to the ECB later today, and it's meeting later today, and it's expected to deliver no change in rates and little new guidance. Policymakers are likely to reiterate that current policy settings are appropriate. The implications would be that the bar for any policy move—up or down—remains high.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.43%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.32%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.32%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.47%. Overnight, DOW fell -0.16%. S&P 500 fell -0.00%. NASDAQ rose 0.55%. 10-year yield rose 0.075 to 4.058.

BoJ holds at 0.50%, keeps gradual tightening bias intact

The BoJ left its overnight call rate unchanged at 0.50% as widely expected. The decision came by a 7–2 vote, with Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura again dissenting in favor of a 25bps rate hike to move policy a little closer to neutral. The repeat split highlights the growing divergence within the board as policymakers debate how quickly to normalize monetary conditions.

In its quarterly Outlook Report, the BoJ made only marginal revisions to its forecasts, signaling that the economic and inflation outlook remains broadly stable. The bank raised its fiscal 2025 GDP forecast slightly from 0.6% to 0.7%, while projections for 2026 and 2027 were left unchanged at 0.7% and 1.0%, respectively.

On prices, the BoJ kept its core CPI forecast at 2.7% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Core-core CPI (excluding both fresh food and energy) was nudged higher to 2.0% in 2026 from 1.9%, with other years unchanged (2026 at 2.8% and 2027 at 2.0%). The bank reiterated that underlying inflation is expected to reach 2% in the latter half of the projection period through March 2027, retaining language from July that risks to the inflation outlook remain “roughly balanced.”

The BoJ also reiterated that it would continue to raise its policy rate and adjust the degree of monetary support “in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices.”

New Zealand ANZ business confidence surges to seven-month high, green shoots emerging

New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence Index surged sharply in September, rising from 49.6 to 58.1, the highest level since February. Own Activity Outlook also improved modestly, up from 43.4 to 44.6, marking its strongest reading since April.

Inflation expectations, meanwhile, remained broadly steady. The share of firms expecting to raise prices over the next three months eased slightly from 46% to 44%. Those anticipating cost increases ticked up from 75% to 76%. One-year-ahead inflation expectations edged higher from 2.71% to 2.75%.

ANZ noted that “green shoots are emerging, particularly for interest-rate-sensitive sectors.” The bank highlighted stronger retail sentiment as evidence that the economy is beginning to warm alongside the spring season, with monetary easing and high rural incomes supporting regional confidence and broader recovery momentum.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.83; (P) 152.45; (R1) 153.35; More...

USD/JPY's rebound from 151.52 is still capped below 153.26 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral for now. On the upside, firm break of 153.26 will resume larger rally from 139.87. Next target is 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. However, break of 151.52 will extend the corrective pattern from 153.26 with another falling leg, and target 149.37 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 145.47 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

The BoJ left its overnight call rate unchanged at 0.50% as widely expected. The decision came by a 7–2 vote, with Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura again dissenting in favor of a 25bps rate hike to move policy a little closer to neutral. The repeat split highlights the growing divergence within the board as policymakers debate how quickly to normalize monetary conditions.

In its quarterly Outlook Report, the BoJ made only marginal revisions to its forecasts, signaling that the economic and inflation outlook remains broadly stable. The bank raised its fiscal 2025 GDP forecast slightly from 0.6% to 0.7%, while projections for 2026 and 2027 were left unchanged at 0.7% and 1.0%, respectively.

On prices, the BoJ kept its core CPI forecast at 2.7% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Core-core CPI (excluding both fresh food and energy) was nudged higher to 2.0% in 2026 from 1.9%, with other years unchanged (2026 at 2.8% and 2027 at 2.0%). The bank reiterated that underlying inflation is expected to reach 2% in the latter half of the projection period through March 2027, retaining language from July that risks to the inflation outlook remain “roughly balanced.”

The BoJ also reiterated that it would continue to raise its policy rate and adjust the degree of monetary support “in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices.”

Full BoJ Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices here.

New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence Index surged sharply in September, rising from 49.6 to 58.1, the highest level since February. Own Activity Outlook also improved modestly, up from 43.4 to 44.6, marking its strongest reading since April.

Inflation expectations, meanwhile, remained broadly steady. The share of firms expecting to raise prices over the next three months eased slightly from 46% to 44%. Those anticipating cost increases ticked up from 75% to 76%. One-year-ahead inflation expectations edged higher from 2.71% to 2.75%.

ANZ noted that “green shoots are emerging, particularly for interest-rate-sensitive sectors.” The bank highlighted stronger retail sentiment as evidence that the economy is beginning to warm alongside the spring season, with monetary easing and high rural incomes supporting regional confidence and broader recovery momentum.

Full NZ ANZ business confidence release here.

Key Highlights

• WTI Crude Oil prices started a recovery wave above $60.00.
• It broke a major bearish trend line with resistance at $59.50 on the 4-hour chart.
• Gold corrected gains and started a consolidation phase near $4,000.
• The US GDP for Q3 2025 could increase 3% (preliminary).

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil price found support near $56.50 against the US Dollar. A base was formed, and the price started a recovery wave above $58.00 and $58.80.

Looking at the 4-hour chart of XTI/USD, the price broke a major bearish trend line with resistance at $59.50. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $66.64 swing high to the $56.37 low.

The price cleared the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and tested the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $62.00 level.

The first key hurdle for the bulls could be $62.75 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $66.64 swing high to the $56.37 low. The main hurdle sits at $64.00.

A close above $64.00 might send Oil prices toward $65.00. Any more gains might call for a test of $66.50 in the near term. On the downside, the first major support sits near the $60.00 zone.

The next support could be $58.80. A daily close below $58.80 could open the doors for a larger decline. In the stated case, the bears might aim for a drop toward $56.50. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of the $55.00 zone.

Looking at Gold, there was a downside correction, and the price could soon attempt to clear the $4,250 resistance.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• US Gross Domestic Product for Q3 2025 (Preliminary) – Forecast 3% versus previous 3.8%.
• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 223K, versus 218K previous.