Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4846; (P) 1.4917; (R1) 1.4957; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside at this point. As noted before, rebound from 1.4561 could have completed at 1.5327, ahead of 1.5354 support turned resistance. Deeper fall would be seen back to retest 1.4561 low. However, break of 1.5085 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.5237, and possibly another take on 1.5354.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0258; (P) 1.0292; (R1) 1.0319; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.0400 would resume the rebound to 1.0610 key structural resistance. However, break of 1.0184 minor support will argue that the rebound is finished, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9970 at 1.0420. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.9970 low.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. In any case, sustained break of 1.0505 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2559; (P) 1.2598; (R1) 1.2632; More...

USD/CAD's break of 1.2586 support argues that rebound from 1.2448 has completed at 1.2899. But downside momentum is unconvincing as seen in 4 hour MACD. Still, further fall is now mildly in favor as long as 1.2692 minor resistance holds, for retesting 1.2448. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 1.2692 will mix up the outlook again.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7374; (P) 0.7400; (R1) 0.7425; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first as it lost momentum ahead of 0.7440 resistance. Further rise is still expected as long as 0.7164 support holds. Break of 0.7440 will resume the rebound from 0.6966 to 0.7555 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that whole corrective decline from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0995; (P) 1.1032; (R1) 1.1055; More...

Outlook in EUR/USD remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, below 1.0899 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1120 from 1.1494 at 1.0786. However, firm break of 1.1120 will confirm short term bottoming at 1.0805. Bias will be back on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1198) and above.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extending term range trading first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3127; (P) 1.3169; (R1) 1.3210; More...

GBP/USD is staying in range above 1.2999 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.2999 will resume larger down trend from 1.4248. However, firm break of 1.3210 should confirm short term bottoming. Stronger rise should be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3361).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) has completed at 1.4248. Decline from 1.4248 could still be a corrective move, or it could be the start of a long term down trend. In either case, deeper decline would be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.2493. In any case, break of 1.3748 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9303; (P) 0.9328; (R1) 0.9362; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral with current recovery. On the downside, below 0.9293 will extend the pull back from 0.9459 to 5 day EMA (now at 0.9252). On the upside, above 0.9381 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside. Firm break of 0.9471 will resume the rise from 0.8756 to 61.8% projection of 0.8756 to 0.9471 from 0.9090 at 0.9532.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds. Larger down trend could still extend through 0.8756 (2021 low). However, firm break of 0.9471 will argue that whole down trend form 1.0342 (2016 high), has completed with waves down to 0.8756. A medium term up trend should be set up to target 1.0237/0342 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.21; (P) 119.36; (R1) 119.61; More...

USD/JPY's rally continues today and hits as high as 120.45 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Current up trend should target 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63 next. On the downside, below 119.10 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation. But downside should be contained well above 116.34 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, the break of 118.65 resistance (2016 high) suggest that up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming, with rise from 101.18 (2020 low) as the third leg. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 113.46 low. Sustained trading above 118.65 will pave the way to 125.85 (2015 high).

Yen's selloff re-accelerates after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a 50bps rate hike at next meeting in May. Dollar is firming up broadly, but trails Canadian. Loonie is supported by extended rebound in oil price, as well as expectations of more BoC tightening too. Swiss Franc is currently the second weakest, followed by Sterling and Euro. Aussie and Kiwi are mixed for now.

Technically, in addition to the selloff in Yen, attention will also be on return of weakness in Euro. In particular, EUR/CAD has taken out 1.3856 minor support and it's heading back to 1.3760. Firm break there will resume medium term down trend. EUR/AUD is falling to corresponding low at 1.4561 and break will align with outlook too. At the same time, EUR/GBP is pressing 0.8358 minor support and break will bring retest of 0.8201 low.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.44%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.13%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.14%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.17%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0183 at 0.226. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.58%. S&P 500 dropped -0.04%. NASDAQ dropped -0.40%. 10-year yield rose 0.167 to 2.315.

Fed Powell hints on 50bps hike next, 10-year yield surges

US benchmark treasury yield jumped sharply overnight after Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave green light to more aggressive tightening pace. He said, "there is an obvious need to move expeditiously to return the stance of monetary policy to a more neutral level, and then to move to more restrictive levels if that is what is required to restore price stability."

In particular, he added, "if we conclude that it is appropriate to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at a meeting or meetings, we will do so."

Fed fund futures are now indicating 61.6% chance of a 50bps hike at May 4 meeting to 0.75-100%, up from 43.9% a day ago.

10-year yield rose 0.167 to close at 2.315. Near term outlook in TNX will stay bullish as long as 2.065 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 0.398 to 1.765 from 1.343 at 2.710.

BoJ Kuroda: We need to patiently maintain our powerful monetary easing

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated to the parliament today that it's still premature to discuss details on stimulus exit. "Given recent price developments, we need to patiently maintain our powerful monetary easing," he said.

Kuroda said consumer prices are likely to rise. However, he warned that "instead of leading to higher wages and corporate profits, such cost-push inflation will weigh on the economy in the long run by hurting corporate profits and households' real income."

New Zealand Westpac consumer confidence dropped to 92.1, lowest since 2008

New Zealand Westpac consumer confidence dropped from 99.1 to 92.1 in Q1, hitting the lowest level since the global financial crisis in 2008. Present conditions index dropped from 94.8 to 90.1. Expected conditions index dropped from 101.9 to 93.5. One-year economic outlook dropped from -11.2 to -22.8. Five-year economic outlook dropped from 10.0 to 0.8.

Westpac said:"Households have reported that their financial position has deteriorated as the economy has been buffeted by a multitude of headwinds. That includes rising consumer prices and higher mortgage rates, both of which are squeezing households' disposable incomes. The rapid spread of Omicron is also likely to have dampened confidence in recent weeks.

Looking ahead

UK will release public sector net borrowing. Eurozone will release current account. Canada will release IPPI and RMPI.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.21; (P) 119.36; (R1) 119.61; More...

USD/JPY's rally continues today and hits as high as 120.45 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Current up trend should target 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63 next. On the downside, below 119.10 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation. But downside should be contained well above 116.34 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, the break of 118.65 resistance (2016 high) suggest that up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming, with rise from 101.18 (2020 low) as the third leg. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 113.46 low. Sustained trading above 118.65 will pave the way to 125.85 (2015 high).

Economic Indicators Update

New Zealand Westpac consumer confidence dropped from 99.1 to 92.1 in Q1, hitting the lowest level since the global financial crisis in 2008. Present conditions index dropped from 94.8 to 90.1. Expected conditions index dropped from 101.9 to 93.5. One-year economic outlook dropped from -11.2 to -22.8. Five-year economic outlook dropped from 10.0 to 0.8.

Westpac said:"Households have reported that their financial position has deteriorated as the economy has been buffeted by a multitude of headwinds. That includes rising consumer prices and higher mortgage rates, both of which are squeezing households' disposable incomes. The rapid spread of Omicron is also likely to have dampened confidence in recent weeks.

Full release here.