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Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.60; (P) 117.91; (R1) 118.52; More...

USD/JPY's rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 118.65 long term resistance next. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63. On the downside, below 117.78 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first. But retreat should be contained by 116.34 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 125.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 113.46 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7150; (P) 0.7224; (R1) 0.7262; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this moment. Further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.7093 support holds. As noted before, larger decline from 0.8006 might have completed at 0.6966 already. Above 0.7440 will resume the rise from 0.6966 for 0.7555 resistance next. However, firm break of 0.7093 will dampen this bullish case and bring retest of 0.6966 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2758; (P) 1.2793; (R1) 1.2858; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral first and outlook is mixed. On the upside, break of 1.2899 will target 1.2963 resistance first. Break there will target key long term fibonacci level at 1.3022. However, break of 1.2586 will bring retest of 1.2448 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8378; (P) 0.8404; (R1) 0.8440; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral first. On the upside, above 0.8434 will target 0.8476 structural resistance first. Firm break there will carry larger bullish implication and target 0.8598 resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.8315 minor support will retain near term bearishness, and bring retest of 0.8201 low.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9499 is expected to continue as long as 0.8476 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 0.8276 support will argue that the whole up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low) has reversed. Deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9499 at 0.7917 next. However, firm break of 0.8476 will indicate medium term bottoming at least. Focus will be back on 55 week EMA (now at 0.8534) for more evidence of bullish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5039; (P) 1.5141; (R1) 1.5317; More...

Intraday bias EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. As long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, further decline is still expected. On the downside, break of 1.4920 minor support should resume larger down trend to 161.8% projection of 1.6343 to 1.5354 from 1.6223 at 1.4476. However, sustained break of 1.5354 will bring stronger rise back towards 1.6223 resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0211; (P) 1.0250; (R1) 1.0307; More....

EUR/CHF's break of 1.0298 support turned resistance now suggests that decline from 1.1149 has completed with five waves down to 0.9970, after defending parity. Intraday bias is now back on the upside for stronger rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9970 at 1.0420 first. On the downside, however, break of 1.0184 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9970 low instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.9650. In any case, break of 1.0505 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.00; (P) 153.59; (R1) 154.28; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point and with 155.20 resistance intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, below 152.97 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 150.95 support first. Break will resume the decline form 158.04, as part of the consolidation from 158.19, to 148.94 support next. However, firm break of 155.20 will bring stronger rise back to 158.04/19 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 158.19 are seen as developing into a consolidation pattern to up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10 to bring rebound. Firm break of 158.19 will resume the up trend to long term fibonacci level at 167.93. However, sustained break of 145.10 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 137.02.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.33; (P) 129.02; (R1) 130.00; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. With break of 55 day EMA, the corrective pattern from 134.11 might have completed at 124.37 already. Further rise should be seen to 133.13/134.11 resistance zone. This will now be the mildly favored case as long as 127.40 minor support holds. Nevertheless, break of 127.40 will bring retest of 124.37 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral for now. Price actions from 134.11 are so far still seen as a corrective pattern. That is, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in favor to resume at a later stage. But before that, the corrective pattern from 134.11 could still extend further, sideway or downward. In the latter case, break of of 124.37 will target 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94.

Sentiment is mixed overall as Russia invasion of Ukraine is continuing. Asia is split into two world, with Nikkei and Singapore markets steady. But Hong Kong and China stock markets are in steep selloff again, after US warned China of helping Russia of easing the impact of sanction. The upbeat Chinese data are generally ignored. Oil price and Gold are both extending near term pull back.

In the currency markets, Yen's decline continue, as driven by extended rally in global benchmark yields. But selloff in Aussie and Kiwi is even more severe, as dragged down by China. Euro is recovering together with Sterling. Dollar is mixed for now, awaiting the guidance from FOMC later in the week.

Technically, EUR/CHF is extending the rebound from 0.9970. The break of 1.0298 support turned resistance now suggest that a medium term bottom is probably in place after defending parity. That's an important sign of stabilization in Euro. Attention will be in particularly to 1.1120 resistance in EUR/USD. Break will further confirm the war triggered selloff is fully over.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.32%. Hong Kong HSI is down -2.99%. China Shanghai SSE is down -2.18%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.64%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0145 at 0.210. Overnight DOW rose 0.00%. S&P 500 dropped -0.74%. NASDAQ dropped -2.04%. 10-year yield rose strongly by 0.136 to 2.140.

China industrial production and retail sales growth unexpectedly strong

For the two months of January and February, China industrial production grew 7.5% yoy, well above expectation of 3.9% yoy. That's the fastest pace since June 2021. Retail sales rose 6.7% yoy, also well above expectation of 3.0% yoy, also the fastest since June 2021. Fixed asset investment rose 12.2% yoy, above expectation of 5.0% yoy, highest since July 2021.

Separately, PBoC unexpectedly kept the rate of CNY 200B worth of one-year medium term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions unchanged at 2.85%. The operation resulted in a net injection of CNY 100B funds to the market. The central bank said it is for "maintaining banking system liquidity reasonably ample".

RBA minutes reiterate patient stance on interest rate

In the minutes of March 1 meeting, RBA reiterated that it will not hike cash rate "until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target band. Now, it was "too early to conclude that" inflation is "sustainably within the target band".

There were "uncertainties about how persistent the pick-up in inflation". Wage growth "remained modest", and "it was likely to be some time before aggregate wages growth would be at a rate consistent with inflation being sustainably at target."

Thus, RBA is "prepared to be patient" on lifting interest rate.

New Zealand BNZ services index rose to 48.6, pain is accumulating

New Zealand BNZ Performance of Services Index rose slightly from 46.0 to 48.6 in February. Activity/sales rose from 44.6 to 50.7. Employment dropped from 47.0 to 45.0. New orders/business rose from 41.2 to 53.6. Stocks/inventories rose from 48.0 to 50.0. Supplier deliveries dropped from 43.4 to 34.4.

BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel said that "February marks the PSI's seventh consecutive month below the breakeven 50 mark. Pain is accumulating. While there were some overs and unders in the components, all remain below their respective long-term averages."

Gold extends pull back, heading back to 55 day EMA

Gold's pull back from 2070.06 picks up momentum today. The break of 1960.83 minor support should confirm short term topping, after initial rejection by 2074.84 high. Deeper decline is now expected as long as 2008.87 minor resistance holds, towards 55 day EMA (now at 1882.52).

The pull back from 2070.06 could either be a correction to rise from 1682.60 only. Or it could be the third led of the corrective pattern from 2074.84 high. Strong rebound from 55 day EMA will favor the former case, and bring upside breakout through 2074.84 sooner. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will favor the latter case, and bring deeper fall back to 1676.65 support.

Looking ahead

UK employment, Swiss PPI, Eurozone industrial production and Germany ZEW economic sentiment will be released in European session. Later in the day, Canada will release housing starts and manufacturing sales. US will release Empire state manufacturing index and PPI.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.33; (P) 129.02; (R1) 130.00; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. With break of 55 day EMA, the corrective pattern from 134.11 might have completed at 124.37 already. Further rise should be seen to 133.13/134.11 resistance zone. This will now be the mildly favored case as long as 127.40 minor support holds. Nevertheless, break of 127.40 will bring retest of 124.37 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral for now. Price actions from 134.11 are so far still seen as a corrective pattern. That is, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in favor to resume at a later stage. But before that, the corrective pattern from 134.11 could still extend further, sideway or downward. In the latter case, break of of 124.37 will target 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94.

Economic Indicators Update

Gold's pull back from 2070.06 picks up momentum today. The break of 1960.83 minor support should confirm short term topping, after initial rejection by 2074.84 high. Deeper decline is now expected as long as 2008.87 minor resistance holds, towards 55 day EMA (now at 1882.52).

The pull back from 2070.06 could either be a correction to rise from 1682.60 only. Or it could be the third led of the corrective pattern from 2074.84 high. Strong rebound from 55 day EMA will favor the former case, and bring upside breakout through 2074.84 sooner. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will favor the latter case, and bring deeper fall back to 1676.65 support.