Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9170; (P) 0.9199; (R1) 0.9246; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral first. Sideway trading could continued. And choppy rise from 0.8925 would still be in favor to extend higher as long as 0.9090 support holds. Break of 0.9341 will target 0.9372 resistance and then 0.9471. On the downside, however, break of 0.9090 will bring deeper fall back to 0.8925 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds. Larger down trend could still extend through 0.8756 (2021 low). However, firm break of 0.9471 will argue that the trend has already reversed and rebound the rally from 0.8756 with another impulsive move.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.63; (P) 114.94; (R1) 115.37; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 114.49 will resume the decline from 116.33, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 116.34. Further break of 114.14 and will target 113.46 support and below. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.61) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7182; (P) 0.7208; (R1) 0.7243; More...

AUD/USD gyrated higher but stays below 0.7247 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise would remain in favor as long as 0.7050 support holds. Above 0.7247 will target 0.7313 resistance. Decisive break there argue that correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966, after hitting 0.6991 key support. Outlook will be turned bullish for 0.7555 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.7050 support will bring retest of 0.6966 low instead.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2732; (P) 1.2758; (R1) 1.2796; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as sideway trading continues. Further rally is expected with 1.2634 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.2795 will resume the rise from 1.2448 to 1.2963 resistance next. However, break of 1.2634 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2448 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8304; (P) 0.8343; (R1) 0.8376; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral with current recovery. On the downside, below 0.8308 will resume the fall fro 0.8476 to retest 0.8282 low. Sustained break of 0.8276 key long term support will carry larger bearish implication. On the upside, above 0.8401 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.8476 resistance. Break there will resume the rebound from 0.8282.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 (2020 high) are still seen a corrective pattern that should be contained by 0.8276 long term support (2019 low). Sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8282 at 0.8747 will affirm this bullish case. However, sustained break of 0.8276 will argue that the long term trend has reversed. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9499 at 0.7917.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5662; (P) 1.5708; (R1) 1.5736; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for 1.5559 support. Break there should indicate that corrective rise from 1.5354 has completed in form of a three wave pattern. Further decline would then be seen back to 1.5250/5354 support zone. On the upside, above 1.5837 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.5250 low are seen as a corrective pattern. Further extension could be seen and another rise cannot be ruled out. But strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.54; (P) 130.16; (R1) 130.95; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral first as it recovered after hitting 129.33. Further fall is expected as long as 131.89 minor resistance holds. Decline from 133.13 is seen as another falling leg of the corrective pattern from 134.11. Below 129.33 will target 128.23 support first, and then 127.36. However, break of 131.89 will turn bias back to the upside for 133.13 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 134.11 are currently seen as a consolidation pattern only. As long as 38.2% retracement of 114.42 (2020 low) to 134.11 at 126.58 holds, up trend from 114.42 is still in favor to continue. Break of 134.11 will target long term resistance at 137.49 (2018 high). However, sustained break of 126.58 will raise the chance of bearish reversal. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 121.94, and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.73; (P) 156.13; (R1) 156.73; More...

GBP/JPY is still bounded in range of 155.11/158.04 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 155.11 support should confirm rejection by 158.19 resistance. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 152.88 support, to extend the corrective pattern from 158.19 with another falling leg. However, on the upside, sustained break of 158.19 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 158.19 are seen as developing into a consolidation pattern to up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Downside should be contained by 123.94 to 158.19 at 145.10 to bring rebound. Firm break of 158.19 will resume the up trend to long term fibonacci level at 167.93. However, sustained break of 145.10 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 137.02.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0364; (P) 1.0413; (R1) 1.0487; More....

EUR/CHF rebounded strongly after hitting 1.0336 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Corrective pattern from 1.0298 might be extending with another leg. But even in case of stronger rise, up side should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 1.0298 at 1.0623. On the downside, below 1.0336 will target 1.0298 low first. Firm break there will confirm larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was formed at 1.0298 on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Rebound from there is still tentatively viewed part of a corrective pattern. That is, larger down trend from 1.2004 (2018) could still extend through 1.0298 to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. However, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0667) will argue that the down trend is over, and bring stronger rise back to 1.1149 next.

US stocks tumbled sharply overnight after the West unveiled a wave a sanctions on Russia's invasion on Ukraine, and warned that more are underway. But other markets were pretty steady, with Asian markets trading mildly higher. Gold is struggling to stand above 1900 handle. WTI crude oil is also gyrating below 96.

In the currency markets, New Zealand dollar rises broadly after more hawkish than expected RBNZ rate hike. Aussie and Canadian Dollar are following next. Dollar is the softest for today, followed by Euro and Yen. Sterling and Swiss Franc are mixed. There is no clear safe-haven flow in the forex markets.

Technically, some attention will be paid to Gold. Firm break of 1879.24 minor support will confirm short term topping at 1913.79. Deeper pull back could be seen back to 1853.70 resistance turned support and possibly below. That, if happens, might be a sign of reverse safe-haven flows in other markets.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Hong Kong HSI is up 0.84%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.78%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.35%. Japan is on holiday. Overnight, DOW dropped -1.42%. S&P 500 dropped -1.01%. NASDAQ dropped -1.23%. 10-year yield rose 0.016 to 1.948.

RBNZ hikes rate to 1%, starts managed bond sales, raised OCR peak forecast

RBNZ raised OCR by 25bps to 1.00% as widely expected. Additionally, it will start to start reduction of the bond holdings under the Large Scale Asset Purchase program through "both bond maturities and managed sales.

The central bank also said "further removal of monetary policy stimulus is expected over time given the medium-term outlook for growth and employment, and the upside risks to inflation."

In the minutes, it's noted, "when deciding whether to move the OCR up by 25 or 50 basis points, many members saw this as a finely balanced decision."

However, firstly, the active sales of bond holdings may "put some upward pressure on longer-term interest rates". Also, the OCR is expected to "peak at a higher level than assumed" at the November MPC. The OCR peak was raised to around 3.4% in 2024, compared to 2.6% in November review.

Hence, the Committee came to a consensus of a 25bps hike, but "affirmed that it was willing to move the OCR in larger increments if required over coming quarters."

NZD/USD extends rebound after RBNZ, AUD/NZD dips

New Zealand Dollar rises broadly after more hawkish than expected RBNZ policy decision. NZD/USD is extending the rebound from 0.6528 short term bottom. Further rise is now expected as long as 0.6679 minor support holds, to 0.6889 resistance next.

It's still too early to conclude that NZD/USD's down trend from 0.7463 has completed. Rejection by 0.6889 resistance will maintain medium term bearishness for another decline through 0.6528 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.6889 will raise then chance of bullish reversal and turn focus to trend line resistance at around 0.7080.

AUD/NZD dips notably too and immediate focus is now on 1.0642 resistance turned support, which is also close to 55 day EMA (now at 1.0649). Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 1.0278 has completed at 1.0795, after rejection by medium term channel resistance. In this case, fall from 1.0795 should develop into another falling leg to the whole down trend from 1.1042, targeting 1.0278 low again.

Fed Bostic: Fed can pull back some support without jeopardizing employment

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said yesterday that the US economy is "still quite strong". It's in a situation "where it can stand on its own". Thus, Fed can pull back some emergency support "without jeopardizing employment."

Bostic also noted that the new sanctions on Russia provided some uncertainty. And, "that kind of uncertainty is a downward risk to economic output" that will be factored into how he thinks about monetary policy.

Elsewhere

Australia wage price index rose 0.7% qoq in Q4, matched expectations. Construction work down dropped -0.4% in Q4, below expectation of 2.1%.

Looking ahead, Germany Gfk consumer confidence, Swiss ZEW expectations, and Eurozone CPI final will be released in European session. The US calendar is empty today.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0364; (P) 1.0413; (R1) 1.0487; More....

EUR/CHF rebounded strongly after hitting 1.0336 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Corrective pattern from 1.0298 might be extending with another leg. But even in case of stronger rise, up side should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 1.0298 at 1.0623. On the downside, below 1.0336 will target 1.0298 low first. Firm break there will confirm larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was formed at 1.0298 on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Rebound from there is still tentatively viewed part of a corrective pattern. That is, larger down trend from 1.2004 (2018) could still extend through 1.0298 to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. However, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0667) will argue that the down trend is over, and bring stronger rise back to 1.1149 next.

Economic Indicators Update