Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9219; (P) 0.9249; (R1) 0.9264; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral again with current retreat. Overall, with 0.9084 support intact, choppy rise from 0.8925 could still extend higher. Break of 0.9276 will target a test on 0.9372 high first. However, break of 0.9199 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9101 instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We'd pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.05; (P) 115.37; (R1) 115.60; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 116.34 could extend further. But downside of retreat should be contained well well above 114.26 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% projection of 109.11 to 115.51 from 112.52 at 116.47 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.90, which is close to 118.65 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 112.52 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7172; (P) 0.7193; (R1) 0.7231; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.7277 will resume the rebound from 0.6992. Such development would also revive the case that correction form 0.8006 has completed after defending 0.6991. Further rally would be seen to 0.7555 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, however, break of 0.7128 will indicate rejection by 55 day EMA, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6991/2 key support zone.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2534; (P) 1.2607; (R1) 1.2647; More...

With the strong break of 1.2619 support, USD/CAD's should have completed a head and should top pattern (ls: 1.2852, h: 1.2963, rs: 1.2812). The development argues that rise from is finished at 1.2963, and possibly the whole pattern from 1.2005 too. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.2286 support first. Break there will target 1.2005 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2812 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend form 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Overall, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's renomination hearings seemed to be well received by the markets. US stocks closed broadly higher overnight, followed by rallies in Asian indexes. Yen and Dollar are both under some selling pressure today. On the other hand, commodity currencies are trading higher. In particular, Canadian Dollar is lifted by the rise in oil prices. European majors are mixed for the moment. Focus will turn to US consumer inflation next.

Technically, focus is now back on Yen crosses as risk-on sentiment returns. Despite breaching 82.42 resistance turned support, AUD/JPY recovered quickly, keeping itself inside near term rising channel. Break of 83.34 minor resistance will argue that rebound form 78.77 is ready to resume through 84.27. At the same time, we'll also monitor if EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY would break through 131.59 and 157.74 temporary tops respectively, to confirm underlying weakness in Yen.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.80%. Hong Kong HSI is up 2.22%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.39%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.03%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0163 at 0.139. Overnight, DOW rose 0.51%. S&P 500 rose 0.92%. NASDAQ rose 1.41%. 10-year yield dropped -0.034 to 1.746.

S&P 500 closed higher after Fed Powell, staying in up trend

US stocks closed generally higher overnight after upbeat comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In the nomination hearing before Senate Banking committee, he said that the current surge in Omicron infections will only have "short-lived" impacts. The economy is ready for some monetary stimulus withdrawal.

"Inflation is running very far above target. The economy no longer needs or wants the very accommodative policies we have had in place," Powell said. And, "you need to focus on getting inflation under control because you're not going to have maximum employment without price stability." Though, he didn't drop any hint on the timing of the first rate hike.

S&P 500 closed up 0.92% at 4713.07. SPX is so far still holding well inside medium term rising channel. 55 day EMA is also providing adequate support to maintain bullishness. Overall, it's still on track to resume the long term up trend through 4818.62 high at a later stage, towards 5000 handle.

WTI crude oil resumes rally, targeting 83.8 next

WTI crude oil follows broad based risk-on sentiment and closed higher overnight. Rise from 62.90 resumed by breaking through 80.63 temporary top and hits as high as 81.79 so far. Current rally is expected to target 161.8% projection of 62.90 to 73.66 from 66.46 at 83.86, which is close to 85.92 high.

Rise from 62.90 is seen as the second leg of the consolidation pattern from 85.92 only. Hence, we're not expecting a firm break of 85.92 yet. Instead, another fall should be seen before the consolidation completes. Break of 77.97 support will indicate rejection by 85.92 and target 73.66 resistance turned support first.

BoJ Kuroda: Consumer inflation likely to gradually accelerate

In a speech to regional branch managers, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said "Japan's economy is picking up as a trend, although it remains in a severe state due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic." The economy is expected to recover ahead as coronavirus impact eases.

On prices, Kuroda said consumer inflation is "likely to gradually accelerate reflecting rising energy prices." Also, "consumer inflation likely to gradually accelerate as a trend."

BoJ upgrades economic assessments on all nine regions

In the latest regional Economic Report, BoJ upgraded assessment on all nine regions. All reported that their respective economies "had been picking up or had shown signs of a pick-up, with the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) waning somewhat, primarily in consumption of services."

Looking ahead

Eurozone industrial production will be released in European session. But main focus will be on US CPI.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2534; (P) 1.2607; (R1) 1.2647; More...

With the strong break of 1.2619 support, USD/CAD's should have completed a head and should top pattern (ls: 1.2852, h: 1.2963, rs: 1.2812). The development argues that rise from is finished at 1.2963, and possibly the whole pattern from 1.2005 too. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.2286 support first. Break there will target 1.2005 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2812 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, focus will be on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend form 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Economic Indicators Update

In the latest regional Economic Report, BoJ upgraded assessment on all nine regions. All reported that their respective economies "had been picking up or had shown signs of a pick-up, with the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) waning somewhat, primarily in consumption of services."

Full report here.

WTI crude oil follows broad based risk-on sentiment and closed higher overnight. Rise from 62.90 resumed by breaking through 80.63 temporary top and hits as high as 81.79 so far. Current rally is expected to target 161.8% projection of 62.90 to 73.66 from 66.46 at 83.86, which is close to 85.92 high.

Rise from 62.90 is seen as the second leg of the consolidation pattern from 85.92 only. Hence, we're not expecting a firm break of 85.92 yet. Instead, another fall should be seen before the consolidation completes. Break of 77.97 support will indicate rejection by 85.92 and target 73.66 resistance turned support first.

In a speech to regional branch managers, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said "Japan's economy is picking up as a trend, although it remains in a severe state due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic." The economy is expected to recover ahead as coronavirus impact eases.

On prices, Kuroda said consumer inflation is "likely to gradually accelerate reflecting rising energy prices." Also, "consumer inflation likely to gradually accelerate as a trend."

US stocks closed generally higher overnight after upbeat comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In the nomination hearing before Senate Banking committee, he said that the current surge in Omicron infections will only have "short-lived" impacts. The economy is ready for some monetary stimulus withdrawal.

"Inflation is running very far above target. The economy no longer needs or wants the very accommodative policies we have had in place," Powell said. And, "you need to focus on getting inflation under control because you're not going to have maximum employment without price stability." Though, he didn't drop any hint on the timing of the first rate hike.

S&P 500 closed up 0.92% at 4713.07. SPX is so far still holding well inside medium term rising channel. 55 day EMA is also providing adequate support to maintain bullishness. Overall, it's still on track to resume the long term up trend through 4818.62 high at a later stage, towards 5000 handle.

DXY:

On the H4 timeframe, prices are on bearish momentum and abiding to our bearish trendline. We would expect further bearish continuation to test our 1st support at 95.518 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Breaking our 1st support may find prices dipping further towards our 2nd support at 95.368 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 100% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by prices trading below ichimoku clouds and RSI forecasting bearish momentum. Alternatively, prices may bounce towards our 1st resistance at 95.849 in line with 50% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 95.849
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 95.518

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the H4 chart, prices are consolidating in a triangle. We see the potential for a dip from our 1st resistance at 1823.350 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st support at 1814.305 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension and 50% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at levels where dips occurred previously and ichimoku is turning red, further supporting our bearish bias.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st support at 1814.305
• H4 1st resistance at 1823.350

GBP/USD

On the H4 chart price is abiding by an ascending trendline and near the first support level of 1.36050 which is also 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially go to the 1st resistance level of 1.37006 which is also 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator as price is trading above the cloud.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st resistance at 1.37006
• H4 1st support 1.36050

USD/CHF:

On the H4 timeframe, price recently broke out of the descending trendline resistance, signifying an overall bullish momentum. We can expect price to bounce from the 1st Support level in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards the 1st Resistance in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is further supported by the Ichimoku cloud indicator where the price is holding above it.

Areas of consideration:

• Watch 1st Support at 0.92339
• Watch 1st Resistance at 0.93020

EUR/USD :

On the H4 chart, price is abiding by an ascending trendline and is heading to the 1st resistance level of 1.13854 which is also 100% Fibonacci projection and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially dip to the 1st support level of 1.12783 which is also 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator.

Areas of consideration :

• H4 1st support at 1.12783
• H4 1st resistance at 1.13854

USD/JPY:

In reference to yesterday’s analysis, price is moving down nicely towards the 1st Support. On the H4 timeframe, is abiding to the ascending channel on the daily, signifying an overall bullish momentum. However, we can expect price to make a short-term bearish drop from 1st Resistance in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement towards 1st Support in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our short-term bearish bias is further supported by the MACD indicator where the signal line is above the MACD line.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st resistance level 115.508
• H4 1st support level 113.276

AUD/USD:

On the H4, price broke out of the ascending trendline support, signifying a bearish momentum. We can expect the price to drop from 1st Resistance in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection towards 1st Support in line with 50 % Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by the price holding below the Ichimoku cloud and RSI indicator where it is abiding to the descending trendline resistance. Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st Support level 0.71266
• H4 1st resistance level 0.72158

NZD/USD:

On the H4 timeframe, prices are on bearish momentum and abiding to our bearish trendline. We see potential for prices to dip further from our 1st resistance at 0.67895 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension and 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 0.67365 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracements and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Our bias is further supported by ichimoku clouds forecasting the dip and also prices trading below our MA. If prices break our 1st support, prices can potentially dip towards our 2nd support at 0.67047 in line with 200% Fibonacci projection and 100% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 0.67895
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.67365

USD/CAD:

On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1.26225 which is in line with horizontal swing high resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement from 1st support at 1.25516, which is in line with horizontal overlap support and 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension level. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support at 1.24922, which coincides with horizontal swing low support and 161.8% Fibonacci extension level .
Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1.25516
• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1.26225

OIL:

On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 85.5 which is in line with horizontal swing high resistance from 1st support at 82.83, which is in line with horizontal overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support at 80.54, which coincides with horizontal swing low support and 50% Fibonacci retracement level .

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 85.5
• H4 time frame, 1st support of 82.83

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the H4, with price moving below our moving average, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 36303 which is in line with horizontal swing overlap resistance to 1st support at 35415, which is in line with horizontal overlap support and 61.8% fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance structure and head for 2nd resistance at 36861, which coincides with horizontal swing high resistance.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 36303
• H4 time frame, 1st support of 35415