Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 175.49; (P) 175.90; (R1) 176.36; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 177.91. Further rise is expected as long as 175.03 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 177.91 will target 61.8% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 172.24 at 180.15 next. However, firm break of 175.03 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper fall back to 172.24 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Firm break of 172.24 support will suggests that it has turned into consolidations again. But still, outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 167.16) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8676; (P) 0.8698; (R1) 0.8713; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral and more sideway trading could be seen. On the upside, firm break of 0.8750 will resume larger rally towards 0.8867 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 0.8654 will extend the fall from 0.8750 to 0.8631 support next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move. While further rally cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, firm break of 0.8631 support will be the first sign that this corrective bounce has completed. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8550) will confirm, and bring retest of 0.8221 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7828; (P) 1.7879; (R1) 1.7935; More...

EUR/AUD's rebound from 1.7569 resumed by breaking 1.7943 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Outlook is unchanged that fall from 1.8155 could have completed at 1.7569 already. Further rise should be seen to 1.8155 resistance. Firm break there will argue that whole corrective pattern from 1.8554 has also completed and bring retest of this high. On the downside, below 1.7818 support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Australian Dollar fell sharply after a soft labor market report reignited expectations that the RBA may resume rate cuts soon. September’s data showed unemployment rising to 4.5%, its highest since 2021. The figures surprised policymakers and traders alike, as the Bank’s latest projections did not even envision unemployment climbing this high at any point over the next two years.

The RBA had previously acknowledged that some labor force softening was likely as higher rates filtered through the economy. But today’s release points to a sharper slowdown that could test the central bank’s confidence in holding steady. As a result, speculation has intensified that the Bank’s easing cycle is not yet over, despite earlier suggestions that it may have paused for assessment.

Nevertheless, markets are still divided on timing: some see a November move as increasingly plausible, while others believe policymakers will prefer to wait until 2026 to gather more evidence. Still, the hurdle for a November cut is now materially lower, especially if the trimmed mean CPI due October 29 holds steady near 2.7%. A combination of higher unemployment and stable core inflation could give the RBA enough cover to reduce rates next month without risking credibility on its inflation mandate.

Meanwhile, global risk sentiment steadied somewhat after U.S. officials struck a more conciliatory tone on trade. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer described China’s new rare earth export rules as a “global supply-chain power grab,” but emphasized that both sides have yet to enact their latest measures. He said Washington expects China will ultimately refrain from implementation, allowing conditions to revert to pre-dispute levels.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed that message, saying the U.S. remains “open to discussion” and would prefer to avoid escalation, though it retains options should Beijing proceed. Bessent warned that China’s actions highlight the risk of global dependence on its supply chains but added, “I am optimistic this can be de-escalated.”

In the currency markets, Aussie is the day’s weakest performer so far, trailed by Dollar and Loonie. Kiwi led gains as supported by he rebound against Aussie, followed by Swiss Franc and Yen. The Pound and Euro in the middle, as traders await the upcoming UK GDP figures.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.87%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.18%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.44%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.34%. Japan 10-year yield is down -0.001 at 1.655. Overnight, DOW fell -0.04%. S&P 500 rose 0.40%. NASDAQ rose 0.66%. 10-year yield rose 0.024 to 4.460.

Australia jobless rate rises to 4.5%, highest since 2021

Australia’s labor market showed further signs of cooling in September as hiring momentum eased and the jobless rate climbed from 4.2% to 4.5%, the highest since November 2021. The unemployment rate figure exceeded expectations for 4.3%, driven by a 5.2% jump in the number of unemployed persons, equivalent to an increase of 33.9k people.

Total employment rose by 14.9k, undershooting forecasts of 20.0k. The breakdown showed full-time positions up 8.7k and part-time jobs rising 6.3k. Despite slower hiring, the participation rate edged up by 0.1% to 67.0%, indicating that more Australians are re-entering the labor force even as job creation moderates.

At the same time, monthly hours worked increased 0.5% mom, showing that those employed are still working longer hours on average, cushioning some of the weakness in headline employment figures.

RBA’s Bullock warns markets too optimistic, says trade war effects to linger for years

RBA Governor Michele Bullock cautioned today that financial markets may be underestimating global economic risks, warning that investors have taken a “Goldilocks view” of the outlook. Speaking at a forum, Bullock said markets appear to be “discounting the bad macroeconomic risks,” even as trade and geopolitical tensions threaten to slow global growth. She emphasized that the effects of the trade war will “play out over the next few years,” as tariffs are maintained or expanded by multiple countries, dampening trade and investment.

Bullock said the unpredictability of government responses to tariffs—rather than the general uncertainty surrounding them—was the biggest risk to investors’ confidence. “You just don’t know what might come out tomorrow morning,” she said, noting that sudden policy shifts could easily destabilize the currently “rosy” market outlook.

Addressing China’s economic struggles directly, Bullock pointed to the country’s ongoing deflationary pressures and excess industrial capacity, saying that “competing provinces” are cutting prices to maintain output, effectively exporting deflation to the rest of the world. She suggested that Beijing could do more to stimulate domestic consumption to rebalance its economy, adding that China’s “massive population” provides untapped potential demand if policies shift toward supporting households.

BoJ’s Tamura urges faster move toward neutral rate, warns against falling behind the curve

BoJ board member Naoki Tamura, one of the central bank’s most hawkish policymakers, who voted for a 25bps hike at the September meeting, reiterated his call for a faster shift toward a neutral policy stance. In a speech today, he said the current stance remains “far away from the neutral interest rate” the impact of prior rate hikes on the domestic economy has been “extremely limited.” He warned that keeping policy too loose for too long could invite future instability.

Tamura explained that his dissent was based on “risks to prices being skewed to the upside”. He now sees it as “more likely that the price stability target will be achieved earlier than expected,” helped by the recent Japan–U.S. tariff policy agreement, which he believes will support growth while keeping price momentum intact.

He acknowledged that U.S. tariff measures could weigh on the American economy, with spillover effects on Japan. But he emphasized “It is important from a risk management perspective for the Bank to move closer to a neutral monetary policy stance”.

Delaying further moves, he warned, could lead to Japan “falling behind the curve,” forcing abrupt rate hikes later that might “inflict significant damage” on the economy.

Fed’s Beige Book: Inflation pressures broaden as growth, hiring flat

The Fed’s Beige Book released Wednesday indicated that the U.S. economy has largely stalled, with "little change" in overall activity since the previous report. Out of the 12 regional districts, three reported slight to modest growth, five showed no change, and four signaled mild softening. While some respondents expressed cautious optimism for an uptick in demand within 6–12 months, others highlighted that persistent uncertainty and the government shutdown are weighing on business confidence and investment decisions.

Price pressures remain a key theme. The report said input costs rose at a “faster pace,” citing "tariff-induced" increases alongside higher expenses for insurance, healthcare, and technology services. While some of these cost increases have been passed on to consumers, competitive pressures are limiting full price transmission.

Labor market conditions showed no significant change, with employment levels "largely stable" and labor demand "generally muted". Wage growth continued at a "modest to moderate pace", but firms reported sharper increases in employer-sponsored healthcare costs, which have contributed to higher overall labor expenses.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7828; (P) 1.7879; (R1) 1.7935; More...

EUR/AUD's rebound from 1.7569 resumed by breaking 1.7943 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Outlook is unchanged that fall from 1.8155 could have completed at 1.7569 already. Further rise should be seen to 1.8155 resistance. Firm break there will argue that whole corrective pattern from 1.8554 has also completed and bring retest of this high. On the downside, below 1.7818 support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

BoJ board member Naoki Tamura, one of the central bank’s most hawkish policymakers, who voted for a 25bps hike at the September meeting, reiterated his call for a faster shift toward a neutral policy stance. In a speech today, he said the current stance remains “far away from the neutral interest rate” the impact of prior rate hikes on the domestic economy has been “extremely limited.” He warned that keeping policy too loose for too long could invite future instability.

Tamura explained that his dissent was based on “risks to prices being skewed to the upside”. He now sees it as “more likely that the price stability target will be achieved earlier than expected,” helped by the recent Japan–U.S. tariff policy agreement, which he believes will support growth while keeping price momentum intact.

He acknowledged that U.S. tariff measures could weigh on the American economy, with spillover effects on Japan. But he emphasized “It is important from a risk management perspective for the Bank to move closer to a neutral monetary policy stance”.

Delaying further moves, he warned, could lead to Japan “falling behind the curve,” forcing abrupt rate hikes later that might “inflict significant damage” on the economy.

Full speech of BoJ's Tamura here.

Australia’s labor market showed further signs of cooling in September as hiring momentum eased and the jobless rate climbed from 4.2% to 4.5%, the highest since November 2021. The unemployment rate figure exceeded expectations for 4.3%, driven by a 5.2% jump in the number of unemployed persons, equivalent to an increase of 33.9k people.

Total employment rose by 14.9k, undershooting forecasts of 20.0k. The breakdown showed full-time positions up 8.7k and part-time jobs rising 6.3k. Despite slower hiring, the participation rate edged up by 0.1% to 67.0%, indicating that more Australians are re-entering the labor force even as job creation moderates.

At the same time, monthly hours worked increased 0.5% mom, showing that those employed are still working longer hours on average, cushioning some of the weakness in headline employment figures.

Full Australia employment release here.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock cautioned today that financial markets may be underestimating global economic risks, warning that investors have taken a “Goldilocks view” of the outlook. Speaking at a forum, Bullock said markets appear to be “discounting the bad macroeconomic risks,” even as trade and geopolitical tensions threaten to slow global growth. She emphasized that the effects of the trade war will “play out over the next few years,” as tariffs are maintained or expanded by multiple countries, dampening trade and investment.

Bullock said the unpredictability of government responses to tariffs—rather than the general uncertainty surrounding them—was the biggest risk to investors’ confidence. “You just don’t know what might come out tomorrow morning,” she said, noting that sudden policy shifts could easily destabilize the currently “rosy” market outlook.

Addressing China’s economic struggles directly, Bullock pointed to the country’s ongoing deflationary pressures and excess industrial capacity, saying that “competing provinces” are cutting prices to maintain output, effectively exporting deflation to the rest of the world. She suggested that Beijing could do more to stimulate domestic consumption to rebalance its economy, adding that China’s “massive population” provides untapped potential demand if policies shift toward supporting households.

The Fed’s Beige Book released Wednesday indicated that the U.S. economy has largely stalled, with "little change" in overall activity since the previous report. Out of the 12 regional districts, three reported slight to modest growth, five showed no change, and four signaled mild softening. While some respondents expressed cautious optimism for an uptick in demand within 6–12 months, others highlighted that persistent uncertainty and the government shutdown are weighing on business confidence and investment decisions.

Price pressures remain a key theme. The report said input costs rose at a “faster pace,” citing "tariff-induced" increases alongside higher expenses for insurance, healthcare, and technology services. While some of these cost increases have been passed on to consumers, competitive pressures are limiting full price transmission.

Labor market conditions showed no significant change, with employment levels "largely stable" and labor demand "generally muted". Wage growth continued at a "modest to moderate pace", but firms reported sharper increases in employer-sponsored healthcare costs, which have contributed to higher overall labor expenses.

Full Fed's Beige Book report here.

Renewing all-time highs earlier today, around ~$4,218, gold (XAU/USD) has extended gains further so far in this week’s trading.

With 2025 representing the best yearly performance in the yellow metals’ history by some margin, traders are left with one burning question:

When will the current rally end?

Let’s break down some of the major macroeconomic themes at play within precious metal markets, alongside some technical analysis and price targets.

Gold (XAU/USD): Key takeaways 15/10/2025

• Breaking above $4,200 earlier today, gold now trades over 56% higher since the beginning of 2025, with an increase from $3,500 to $4,000 only taking thirty-six days.
• Acting as the primary catalyst for recent upside, markets are increasingly sure of back-to-back Federal Reserve rate cuts in the upcoming decision, with some sources estimating a ~97% probability.
• Otherwise, renewed US-China tariffs announced on Friday by President Trump are adding a safe-haven demand premium to metal pricing.

Gold (XAU/USD) yearly performance 1941-2025, OANDA, TradingView, 15/10/2025

Gold breaks above $4,200 with no signs of slowing down

While some thought the current rally must retrace, it would seem that markets need little excuse to push metal pricing higher

Benefiting from a perfect storm of macroeconomic themes, it would seem that there is no shortage of tailwind for the current gold rally.

With markets remaining as bullish as ever, let’s discuss some of the recent macroeconomic developments that are affecting metal pricing:

Renewed ‘tit-for-tat’ US-China tariffs: While there is a long history of trade relations between the United States and China, recent developments leave American levies on Chinese imports at 130%, effective November 1st.

@realDonaldTrump, Truth Social, 10/10/2025

Using China’s proposed export controls as justification, especially regarding rare earth minerals, Trump has somewhat predictably responded in kind with an unprecedented 100% tariff, bringing the total levy on Chinese imports to 130%.

With Trump’s infamous ‘liberation day’ relatively fresh in collective memory, we can expect further global trade disruption to boost precious metal pricing, as seen since Friday’s announcement.

Markets certain of consecutive Fed rate cuts: Having expanded on this in full as part of previous coverage, I’ll be brief: markets are increasingly expecting a 25 basis point cut in the Federal Reserve’s October decision. As a non-yielding asset, this directly benefits gold pricing, especially when considering falling yields on U.S. Treasury bonds.

CME FedWatch, 15/10/2025

While a ~97% probability of a 25 basis point is a rare level of conviction by the market, some rationale behind this confidence can be offered when considering Jerome Powell’s comments on the US labour market yesterday:

Rising downside risks to employment have shifted our assessment of the balance of risks. Jerome Powell, speaking at a conference in Philadelphia, 14/10/2025

Not only do these comments shift the focus away from inflation, but considering the context of a poor ADP payrolls and missing NFP data, a dovish picture continues to develop.

At the time of writing, the Federal Reserve is expected to meet in fourteen days' time, on October 29th.

Ongoing US government shutdown: To finish, an honourable mention must be made to the current US government shutdown, while admittedly old news, it continues to boost gold pricing by way of increased safe-haven flows. Now ongoing for fifteen days, and especially considering the complications to important government data releases, the longer the shutdown continues, the greater the damage to the US economy will increase exponentially.

Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis 15/10/2025

Having touched base on the fundamentals, let’s shift our focus to the technicals, starting with the weekly and finishing with the daily.

Gold (XAU/USD): Weekly (W) chart analysis:

Gold (XAU/USD) W, OANDA, TradingView, 15/10/2025

With recent price action virtually parabolic, pricing continues in one direction, to the behest of gold bulls.

Currently, volatility remains high, with readings from the ATR approaching five-month highs.

From a classical technical standpoint, the market is confirming a sustained long-term bullish move, with the 20, 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs all offering support below current price action.

It should be noted, however, that prices are likely to retrace somewhat in the near future, although no one can be certain exactly when.

As such, the RSI currently trades at its highest level since August 2019, firmly in ‘overbought’ territory. Many will be looking for prices to retreat to get long.

Price targets and support/resistance levels:

• Price target 1: 61.8% Fib: $4,317
• Price target 2: 50.0% Fib: $4,410
• Support 1: Trendline: $4,040
• Support 2: Psychological level: $4,000

Gold (XAU/USD): Daily (D1) chart analysis:

Gold (XAU/USD) D1, OANDA, TradingView, 06/10/2025

With the recent explosive move in metal pricing, it’s no surprise that daily price action continues to trade at the top boundary of the 20-period Bollinger bands.

Price targets and support/resistance levels:

• Price target 1: 78.6% Fib: $4,240
• Support 1: Trendline: $4,079
• Support 2: Psychological key level: $4,000
• Support 3: 20-period SMA: $3,889

Following simple technical analysis theory, this suggests that a retracement towards the midline is inevitable, only being a matter of when.

This goes double when considering that the daily price action has been deemed overbought by the 14-period RSI since early September.

For now, we can consider a retracement towards $4,000 as a potential entry point, with ample support available below.

As traders, we know we shouldn’t try to catch a falling knife, and the same would apply for one shot out of a cannon - some food for thought.

The run in Silver prices has been nothing short of extraordinary.

Since the start of the year, the metal has surged more than 80%, with most of the move unfolding after Powell’s late-August speech at Jackson Hole (+37% in a 44-day span).

Having broken its 2011 record highs of $49.81, Silver now trades comfortably above $50, and definitely cementing its seat as one of the most explosive rally in more than a decade.

Beyond speculation, Silver’s industrial demand — particularly in photovoltaic panels, EVs and advanced electronics — is driving the squeeze.

Supply issues are mounting, with growing fears that the metal’s rarity could lead to some disastrous developments for the precious metal.

Traders are increasingly nervous.

Some metal specialists like Brian Kuszmar admit they have never witnessed a market this volatile, not even during the infamous 1980s Silver boom.

Brian Kuszmar, metal specialist since 1977 – Source: X – October 15, 2025

The parabolic rise now raises one big question — will something blow from this rally?

Silver (XAG/USD) multi-timeframe analysis

Daily Chart

Silver (XAG) 2-Day Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Looking out on higher timeframes really mark how strong the rally is.

The move is becoming more parabolic as time goes but we haven't seen widespread market panic for now:

What can happen in the strongest squeezes is a development of higher-gaps on very thin volumes.

Volumes are indeed getting thinner as the rally continues but things are not too out of whack.

Up 3% at one point in today's session, some stalling has happened at a test of the $53.71 high timeframe 1.618% Fibonacci-extension (session highs).

Reactions don't imply sudden reversals, but it's essential to keep this level in view for reversal/breakout analysis. Let's take a closer look.

8H Chart and levels

Silver (XAG) 8H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The price action is slowing around the current highs after yesterday's strong profit-taking bar.

For now, a convergence of a lower high forming with the same pattern on the RSI prompts some slowdown in the silver-rush.

Keep an eye on the upward trendline that could come into play on a retracement, particularly as it comes close to the $49.81 2011 record that hasn't been retested.

Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:

Resistance Levels:

• Daily peak $53.71
• $52 to $54 current ATH resistance
• Potential resistance 1 $57.50 to $60 (1.382% from 2022 lows)
• Potential resistance 2 $62 to $65 (1.618 from Impulsive Move)

Support Levels:

• $48 to $49 2011 High Pivot
• $43 to $44 higher timeframe support
• $39.50 to $40 higher tf momentum pivot zone
• 2012 Highs Support around $37.50

1H Chart

Silver (XAG) 1H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Despite the lower high formation, the price action is still consolidating close to the hourly resistance – This marks bull resilience.

Keep an eye on the 50-H MA, currently at $52.12. An hourly close below would confirm a retracement to at least the previous ATH level at $49.80.

However, a daily close above would maintain the upward trajectory.

Safe Trades!