Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1542; (P) 1.1586; (R1) 1.1614; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidations continue above 1.1540. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.1778 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.1540 will resume the fall from 1.1917 to 1.1390 , or further to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1274) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still extended to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.86; (P) 152.16; (R1) 152.59; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 153.26. Downside should be contained above 149.95 resistance turned support. Break of 153.26 will target 100% projection of 142.66 to 150.90 from 145.47 at 153.71. Firm break there will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 158.80. However, decisive break of 149.95 will bring deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 148.48) instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 145.47 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3309; (P) 1.3338; (R1) 1.3360; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 1.3260. Overall outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 1.3787 is extending. Below 1.3260 will bring deeper decline but strong support should be seen from 1.3140 cluster (38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.3142) to contain downside. On the upside, break of 1.3526 will bring stronger rally back to retest 1.3728/87 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still seen as a corrective move. Further rally could be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. But strong resistance could emerge from 1.4248 (2021 high) to limit upside. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3173) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8009; (P) 0.8033; (R1) 0.8067; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 0.8075. Price actions from 0.7828 are currently seen as correcting whole fall from 0.9200. Above 0.8075 will target 0.8170 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.7944 support will bring retest of 0.7828 low instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4002; (P) 1.4021; (R1) 1.4059; More...

USD/CAD's rally resumed by breaking through 1.4033 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained trading above 1.4014/7 will suggest that USD/CAD is already reversing the whole fall from 1.4719, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4312. On the downside, below 1.3975 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4017) holds. However sustained trading above 1.4014 will suggest that it's more likely just a correction, and the larger up trend would be in favor to resume through 1.4791 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6492; (P) 0.6513; (R1) 0.6534; More...

AUD/USD falls sharply today but stays above 0.6472 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first and more consolidations could be seen. Still, risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.6628 resistance holds. Current development suggests rejection by 0.6713 fibonacci resistance. Below 0.6472 will resume the fall from 0.6706 to 0.6413 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403).

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

Sentiment soured sharply in Asian markets, led by a steep selloff in Japan where the Nikkei reversed early gains to fall more than 3%. The downturn reflected a mix of political uncertainty in Tokyo and renewed caution over U.S.–China trade tensions. After months of strong gains, Japanese equities appear to have reached a point where investors are pausing to reassess the outlook amid rising volatility and shifting policy expectations.

The source of anxiety lies partly in Japan’s unfolding leadership transition. While LDP leader Sanae Takaichi remains widely expected to become Japan’s next prime minister, her path to confirmation has been complicated by the breakup with coalition partner Komeito. The split has introduced a small but symbolic risk that an opposition figure could be elected by parliament later this month — a scenario still viewed as unlikely but unsettling enough to spark caution among investors.

Adding to the uncertainty, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato emphasized today that “inflation, rather than deflation, has become a challenge for us now.” He emphasized the need for policies suited to this new environment, implying that Japan is unlikely to return to a full-fledged “Abenomics” reflationary stance even if Takaichi takes office. The remarks reinforce expectations that fiscal and monetary policies may remain more balanced, tempering hopes for aggressive stimulus measures that had previously fueled market optimism.

Beyond domestic politics, escalating U.S.–China trade tensions also weighed on investor sentiment. With Washington and Beijing trading fresh barbs over tariffs and rare earth restrictions, Japanese exporters face renewed headwinds. After a strong rally since April, profit-taking was perhaps overdue, and today’s selloff appears to reflect a broader correction rather than a fundamental shift in outlook.

Overall in the currency markets, Aussie led declines, followed by Kiwi and Loonie, all under pressure from the deterioration in sentiment and weaker equities. In contrast, the safe-haven trio, Yen, Swiss Franc and Euro, gained. Dollar and British Pound held in mid-range.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -2.68%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.19%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.21%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.22%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.00at 1.663. Overnight, DOW rose 1.29%. S&P 500 rose 1.56%. NASDAQ rose 2.21%.

RBA minutes signal caution as board flags risk of hotter Q3 inflation

RBA’s September meeting minutes confirmed a steady hand on policy, with members concluding there was “no need for an immediate reduction” in the cash rate. The Board agreed that the economic data and forecasts since August supported maintaining the current level of restrictiveness, while emphasizing that decisions will remain “cautious and data dependent.”

Discussions focused heavily on inflation risks, particularly after stronger readings in the monthly CPI indicators for July and August. While acknowledging that these data are partial and volatile, members noted that upside surprises in market services and housing costs suggest the September quarter CPI could come in higher than expected in August forecasts.

The minutes revealed growing concern that if this pattern continues, the Bank’s assumptions about the balance between aggregate demand and supply could be too optimistic. Members also referenced lessons from abroad, where services inflation has proven stubbornly elevated, as a warning for domestic policy calibration.

Still, the Board recognized that risks remain "two-sided". On the upside, consumption could recover faster than assumed, or capacity pressures could prove stronger. On the downside, members highlighted the drag from weak consumer sentiment, slower employment growth, and subdued wage indicators.

The balance of views suggests the RBA will tread carefully in coming months, awaiting confirmation from the full Q3 inflation report before deciding whether further policy easing remains justified at the November meeting.

New Philly Fed chief Paulson backs gradual easing toward neutral policy

New Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson used her debut speech to call for a balanced approach to monetary policy as the economy navigates rising labor market risks and uncertain inflation dynamics.

She said policy should move toward a “more neutral stance,” stressing that the Fed must weigh both sides of its mandate. While she noted that the job market remains solid overall, she warned that conditions are “moving in the wrong direction” and that risks are “noticeably” increasing.

Paulson indicated she supports a measured pace of rate cuts consistent with the Fed’s latest projections, which outlined a quarter-point reduction last month and an additional 50 basis points of easing before the end of 2025, followed by further cuts in subsequent years.

On inflation, Paulson acknowledged that the recent tariff hikes could lift prices modestly, but said she does not expect those effects to persist. Still, she cautioned against rushing into deeper rate reductions given uncertainty over where the neutral rate truly lies.

Gold and Silver shatter key barriers as bull run accelerates - 5000 and 60 next

The precious metals rally showed no sign of fatigue, with Gold surging beyond 4,000 and Silver clearing 50 in a powerful continuation of their uptrend. Neither milestone proved a deterrent, as safe-haven demand strengthened amid renewed global uncertainty. Although initial market reactions to the latest U.S.–China trade tensions were subdued, investors have steadily rotated back into metals, betting that geopolitical instability will sustain demand well into 2026.

The rally has now reached a stage where institutional forecasts are catching up to price reality. On Monday, Bank of America became the first major institution to lift its long-term targets, projecting Gold at 5,000 per ounce in 2026 and Silver at 65.

Silver remains the outperformer, up about 80% year-to-date, compared with a 55% rise in gold. However, the surge has not come without risks. Some analysts caution that as liquidity improves and industrial demand fluctuates, volatility could increase in the near term. The latest spike has also been fueled by a temporary shortage in physical supply, which is expected to ease soon.

Technically, Gold’s next immediate focus lies at 100% projection of 2,584.24 to 3,499.79 from 3,267.90 at 4,183.45. Resistance could emerge there, prompting some profit-taking on first test. Break below 3,944.57 support would signal short-term topping and consolidation. However, sustained strength above 4,183.45 would pave the way toward 161.8% projection at 4,749.25 next.

In the broader view, now that 261.8% projection of 1,160.17 to 2,074.84 from 1,614.60 at 4,009.21 is cleared, Gold could be heading towards 361.8% projection at 4.923.87, which is close to 5000 psychological level. The technical setup aligns closely with the latest upward revisions from institutional forecasts.

For Silver, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 48.35 support holds. Next target is 161.8% projection of 28.28 to 39.49 from 36.93 at 55.06. Firm break there will target 200% projection at 59.35, which is close to 60 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, the up trend remains in acceleration phase, and could further stretch to 261.8% projection of 21.92 to 34.84 from 28.28 at 62.10 in the medium term.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6492; (P) 0.6513; (R1) 0.6534; More...

AUD/USD falls sharply today but stays above 0.6472 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first and more consolidations could be seen. Still, risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.6628 resistance holds. Current development suggests rejection by 0.6713 fibonacci resistance. Below 0.6472 will resume the fall from 0.6706 to 0.6413 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403).

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

The precious metals rally showed no sign of fatigue, with Gold surging beyond 4,000 and Silver clearing 50 in a powerful continuation of their uptrend. Neither milestone proved a deterrent, as safe-haven demand strengthened amid renewed global uncertainty. Although initial market reactions to the latest U.S.–China trade tensions were subdued, investors have steadily rotated back into metals, betting that geopolitical instability will sustain demand well into 2026.

The rally has now reached a stage where institutional forecasts are catching up to price reality. On Monday, Bank of America became the first major institution to lift its long-term targets, projecting Gold at 5,000 per ounce in 2026 and Silver at 65.

Silver remains the outperformer, up about 80% year-to-date, compared with a 55% rise in gold. However, the surge has not come without risks. Some analysts caution that as liquidity improves and industrial demand fluctuates, volatility could increase in the near term. The latest spike has also been fueled by a temporary shortage in physical supply, which is expected to ease soon.

Technically, Gold’s next immediate focus lies at 100% projection of 2,584.24 to 3,499.79 from 3,267.90 at 4,183.45. Resistance could emerge there, prompting some profit-taking on first test. Break below 3,944.57 support would signal short-term topping and consolidation. However, sustained strength above 4,183.45 would pave the way toward 161.8% projection at 4,749.25 next.

In the broader view, now that 261.8% projection of 1,160.17 to 2,074.84 from 1,614.60 at 4,009.21 is cleared, Gold could be heading towards 361.8% projection at 4.923.87, which is close to 5000 psychological level. The technical setup aligns closely with the latest upward revisions from institutional forecasts.

For Silver, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 48.35 support holds. Next target is 161.8% projection of 28.28 to 39.49 from 36.93 at 55.06. Firm break there will target 200% projection at 59.35, which is close to 60 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, the up trend remains in acceleration phase, and could further stretch to 261.8% projection of 21.92 to 34.84 from 28.28 at 62.10 in the medium term.

Summary

U.S.-China trade tensions are again front and center following the developments of late last week. China's plan to impose strict export controls, especially on rare earth minerals, were matched by new tariff threats from President Trump. While rhetoric eased this past weekend, a November 1 target date for the imposition of Chinese export restrictions and higher U.S. imposed tariffs elevate the probability of the U.S. and China slipping into a downside trade war scenario. In the context of U.S.-China tensions, mid-October to November 1 is a lot of time with many potential twists and turns along the way. In that sense, we updated our U.S.-China Trade War 2.0 scenarios for how China's economy and currency could perform should relations deteriorate, improve, or hold steady. For now, we believe the U.S. and China will remain in our "restrained trade war" base case scenario, although risks are tilted toward our downside scenario materializing.

Key Highlights

• Bitcoin started a recovery wave above $112,000 after a major crash.
• BTC/USD is still below a key bearish trend line with resistance at $117,800 on the 4-hour chart.
• Ethereum also started a decent increase above $4,000.
• XRP price is back above $2.20 but faces hurdles near $2.650.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

Bitcoin price started a major decline below $115,000 against the US Dollar. BTC dived below $112,000 and $110,000 before the bulls took a stand.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price traded as low as $106,869 on TitanFX and recently started a steady recovery wave. The price climbed above the $112,000 resistance zone. There was a move above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $126,279 swing high to the $106,869 low.

However, the price is still below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $117,800.

Immediate support sits at $112,500. A downside break below $112,500 might start another decline. The next major support is $111,600. Any more losses might call for an extended decline toward the $108,000 support zone.

On the upside, the price now faces resistance near the $116,000 level and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The main hurdle is now forming near $117,500. A successful close above $117,500 might start another steady increase. In the stated case, the price may perhaps rise toward the $118,800 level. Any more gains might call for a test of $120,000.

Looking at Ethereum, the price was able to follow Bitcoin and climbed above the $4,000 resistance region.

Today’s Key Economic Releases

• Fed's Chair Powell speech.
• BoE's Governor Bailey speech.