Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.62; (P) 128.09; (R1) 129.69; More....

EUR/JPY is losing some downside momentum, but further decline is expected as long as 129.58 minor resistance holds. Corrective pattern from 134.11 should target 126.58 medium term fibonacci level next. On the upside, however, break of 129.58 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for rebound back towards 133.44 high.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 114.42 (2020 low) to 134.11 at 126.58 holds, up trend from 114.42 is still in favor to continue. Break of 134.11 will target long term resistance at 137.49 (2018 high). However, sustained break of 126.58 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 121.94, and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8455; (P) 0.8471; (R1) 0.8496; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays on the upside as rebound from 0.8379 is in progress. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 0.8486) will target 0.8593 structural resistance. On the downside, though, break of 0.8444 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8379 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 (2020 high) are still seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as long as 0.8593 resistance holds, towards long term support at 0.8276. We'd look for bottoming signal around there to bring reversal. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.8593 will now be an early sign of medium term bottoming. However, sustained break of 0.8276 will be a sign of long term bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5741; (P) 1.5821; (R1) 1.5888; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the upside as rebound from 1.5354 resumed after brief retreat. Further rally would be seen to 161.8% projection of 1.5354 to 1.5743 from 1.5446 at 1.6075 next. On the downside, however, break of 1.5743 resistance turned support will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 1.5354 invalidates the case of imminent downside breakout, and turn medium term outlook neutral again. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250. Further rally could be seen through 1.6434 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.5446 support will turn focus back to 1.5250 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0406; (P) 1.0430; (R1) 1.0445; More....

EUR/CHF's down trend is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside, for 161.8% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0694 from 1.0936 at 1.0200 next. On the upside, though, break of 1.0511 resistance will now indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is now extending. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. On the upside, break of 1.0694 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2708; (P) 1.2751; (R1) 1.2780; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside, as rise from 1.2286 is in progress to 1.2894/2947 resistance zone. Break there will target 1.3022 long term fibonacci level next. On the downside, break of 1.2639 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for now. The pair drew support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7118; (P) 0.7139; (R1) 0.7164; More...

AUD/USD's decline continues today and break of 0.7105 indicates resumption of whole fall from 0.8006. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 0.6991 key structural support next. On the upside, break of 0.7158 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound first.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we're seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has probably reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.03; (P) 113.50; (R1) 114.00; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the downside for 112.71 support. Sustained break there will argue that fall from 115.51 is already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper decline would then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, above 114.20 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 115.51 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9211; (P) 0.9242; (R1) 0.9259; More....

USD/CHF's fall from 0.9372 extending today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Deeper decline would be seen to 0.9084 support first. Firm break there will argue that choppy rise from 0.8925 has completed, and fall from 0.9471 is resuming. Deeper decline would be seen through 0.8925. On the upside, above 0.9271 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 0.9372 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We'd pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3282; (P) 1.3323; (R1) 1.3357; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.3277 might extend. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.3512 resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 1.3277 will resume the decline from 1.4248 to 1.3164 fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, break of 1.3512 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the structure of the fall from 1.4248 suggests that it's a correction to the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) only. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3833 resistance will argue that the correction has completed and bring retest of 1.4248 high. However, sustained trading below 1.3164 will revive some medium term bearishness and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

General trend

• Asian indices generally pare gains.
• Travel related shares trade generally higher.
• Hang Seng has lagged; China Gas has weighed on utilities; Casino cos. extend drop amid probe related to SunCity.
• China issued 5-year plan related to software and IT services development.
• S&P ASX 200 has been supported by the Financials and Resources indices.
• WTI Crude has remained modestly higher; Precious metals also have modest gains.
• China PMI data had little initial impact, while holding in expansion.
• Markets started to reverse earlier gains after Moderna CEO reiterated comments on skepticism of vaccine on omicron.
• Companies expected to report during the NY morning include Barnes & Noble Education, Bank of Nova Scotia, Baozun, Chico’s, Citi Trends, JinkoSolar, Momo, UP Fintech.

Headlines/Economic data

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened +0.5%.
• (AU) Australia Q3 Current Account Balance (A$): 23.9B v 29.3Be; Govt consumption to add 0.8% to GDP, Govt investment to cut 0.1% from GDP.
• (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: -12.9% V -1.5%E; Private Sector Houses Approvals M/M: +4.3% v -16.0% prior.
• (NZ) New Zealand Nov Final ANZ Activity Outlook: 15.0 v 15.6 prelim; Business Confidence: -16.4 v -18.1 prelim.
• (NZ) Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Ha: No plans to use QE Bondholdings as monetary tool; Risks would slant up if not for market pricing.

Japan

• Nikkei 225 opened +1.2%.
• (JP) JAPAN NOV JOBLESS RATE: 2.7% V 2.8%E, Job-To-Applicant Ratio: 1.15 v 1.17e.
• (JP) JAPAN OCT PRELIMINARY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: +1.1% V -4.4%E (1st increase in 4 months); Y/Y: -4.7% V -2.3% PRIOR.
• (JP) Japan Fin Min Suzuki: Important to have longer term goals on budget.
• (JP) Japan MOF sells ¥3.0T v ¥3.0T indicated in 0.00% 2-year JGBs: Avg Yield: -0.121% v -0.0970% prior; bid-to-cover: 4.05x v 4.04x prior.

Korea

• Kospi opened +1.0%.
• (KR) South Korea Oct Industrial Production M/M: -3.0% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.5% v 2.0%e.
• (KR) South Korea Oct Cyclical Leading Index Change: -0.5 v -0.3 prior.

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng opened -0.3%; Shanghai Composite opened +0.2%.
• (CN) CHINA NOV MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 50.1 V 49.8E (First expansion since Aug); Non-manufacturing PMI: 52.3 v 51.3e (3rd consecutive expansion).
• (CN) China Financial News (PBOC Backed): OMO Injections show that the PBOC Goal is to keep reasonably ample liquidity.
• 1383.HK Comments on arrest of CEO Chau, will be negatively impacted should it lose the support of Chau and his associated companies.
• (CN) China PBOC to conduct CNY5.0B in 3-month Central Bank Bill Swap (CBS) operation on today's session v CNY5.0B prior.
• (CN) China Govt isues guidelines on ensuring car hailing drivers have rights: Urges car hailing companies to offer social insurance to drivers; Will deepen anti monopoly crackdown in car hailing sector.
• (CN) China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 6.3794 v 6.3872 prior.
• (CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY100B in 7-day reverse repos v CNY100B prior; Net inject CNY50B v Net inject CNY50B prior.

Other

• 2303.TW To raise prices by up to 12% on long term contracts.
• (SG) Singapore started contact tracing for airport staff who may have come into contact with two travelers infected with the omicron variant, Passengers transited through Changi Airport on their way to Australia from South Africa.

North America

• (US) Adobe: US customers have spent $7.1B on Cyber Monday as of 9PM ET v $10.2-11.3B prior guided v $10.8B y/y.
• MRNA CEO Reiterates that he believes that the current coronavirus vaccines will not be as effective against the Omicron Variant of coronavirus.
• (US) Fed Chair Powell: Greater virus concerns could slow job market progress and intensify supply chain woes; Omicron variant adds to economic risks and inflation uncertainty - testimony to Senate.
• (US) NIH's Fauci: Does not foresee new travel restrictions coming due to Omicron variant, cannot predict if it will become dominate variant in US.
• (US) Senate has blocked the Annual Defense bill with Republican Objections with Democratic Senators seeking passage, vote ongoing.
• TWTR Confirms Jack Dorsey steps down as CEO; Board unanimously appoints CTO Parag Agrawal as successor; Salesforce COO Bret Taylor named Independent Chair of the Board; Affirms Q4 and FY21 outlook (US morning).

Europe

• (EU) ECB's De Guindos (Spain): Watching omicron variant closely, recommends banks be cautious with provisions.
• Expecting earnings from EasyJet and Volvo today.

Levels as of 00:15ET

• Hang Seng -1.4%; Shanghai Composite +0.3%; Kospi -1.1%; Nikkei225 +0.1%; ASX 200 +0.7%.
• Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.1%; Nasdaq100 +0.1%, Dax -0.4%; FTSE100 -0.0%.
• EUR 1.1305-1.1285; JPY 113.89-113.43; AUD 0.7155-0.7131; NZD 0.6835-0.6815.
• Commodity Futures: Gold +0.3% at $1,790/oz; Crude Oil +0.8% at $70.48/brl; Copper -0.4% at $4.33/lb.