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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8516; (P) 0.8542; (R1) 0.8558; More...

EUR/GBP's fall from 0.8593 accelerates lower today and break of 0.8459 suggests that rebound from 0.8401 has completed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.8401. Also, larger down trend is likely still in progress. Break of 0.8401 will extend the fall form 0.9499 to 0.8276 long term support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 (2020 high) are still seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as long as 0.8656 resistance holds, towards long term support at 0.8276. However, firm break of 0.8656 resistance would argue that a medium term bottom was already formed. Stronger rise would be seen to 0.8861 support turned resistance to confirm completion of the corrective pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5416; (P) 1.5522; (R1) 1.5579; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for 1.5354 support. Break will resume the fall from 1.6434 to retest 1.5250 low. Also, for now, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.5743 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is in progress. Firm break of 1.5250 low will confirm resumption and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Sustained break there could bring more downside acceleration to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623. In any case, break of 1.6434 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0504; (P) 1.0524; (R1) 1.0538; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside for 100% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0694 from 1.0936 at 1.0481. Sustained break of 1.0505 low will confirm long term down trend resumption. Next target will be 161.8% projection at 1.0200. On the upside, though, break of 1.0596 resistance will now indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current downside momentum argues that fall from 1.1149 is probably resuming the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high). Focus is now on 1.0505 (2020 low). Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223 next. Strong support from 1.0505 will bring rebound first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0936 resistance holds.

Technical analysis

The RSI is above level 50.

The Stochastics is above level 50.

Most likely scenario – BUY

Target prices: 1,870.67 1,876.58

Alternative scenario – SELL

Target prices: 1,861.32 1,852.95

Key levels

Support 1,861.32 1,852.95

Resistance 1,870.67 1,876.58

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7323; (P) 0.7347; (R1) 0.7371; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral as consolidation from 0.7275 temporary low is extending. But further decline is in favor as long as 0.7431 minor resistance holds. Rebound from 0.7105 could be complete with three waves up to 0.7555, and fall from 0.8006 is still in progress. On the downside, below 0.7275 will target 0.7169 support first, and then 0.7105. However, break of 0.7431 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.7555.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we're seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2489; (P) 1.2523; (R1) 1.2543; More...

USD/CAD is staying in consolidation form 1.2603 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, fall from 1.2947 has possibly completed with three waves down to 1.2886. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.2386 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.2603 will resume the rally to 1.2894/2947 resistance zone. However, break of 1.2386 will revive near term bearishness and bring retest of 1.2886 low.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for now. The pair drew support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.86; (P) 114.04; (R1) 114.31; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, sustained break of 114.69 will resume larger up trend for 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. In case the consolidation pattern from 114.69 extends with another fall, we'd continue to expect downside to be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9206; (P) 0.9231; (R1) 0.9276; More....

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.9084 resumed after brief retreat and intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rise would be seen back to retest 0.9367 resistance. On the downside, below 0.9185 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 0.9084 instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We'd pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3394; (P) 1.3422; (R1) 1.3440; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 1.3351 temporary low could extend. But we'd continue to expect upside of recovery to be limited below 1.3606 resistance, to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1.3351 will extend the decline from 1.4248 to 1.3164 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, the structure of the fall from 1.4248 suggests that it's a correction to the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) only. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 1.4376 key resistance (2018 high) will add to the case of long term bullish reversal. However, sustained trading below 1.3164 will revive some medium term bearishness and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

Market movers today

• Today's highlight will be the US retail sales which have continued to surprise on the upside in recent months. Elevated US goods consumption remains an important driver behind the global supply chain pressures and today's figures will reveal whether goods spending has started to weaken in October on the back of high inflation.
• Given the Bank of England's renewed focus on labour market outcomes to determine the hiking cycle, the UK jobs report for September will also be of interest.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will keep a close eye on Q3 wage inflation data released overnight, as it is a key indicator for its transitory inflation view, and a low print could push back on market's aggressive rate hike pricing.

The 60 second overview

US-China relations: This morning saw the first virtual 1:1 meeting held between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping amid rising tensions with respect to Taiwan, the "one China"-policy, tariffs, human rights issues, nuclear arsenals and technological development. Both leaders urged for corporation with Biden explicitly telling Jinping not to let their rivalry "veer into conflict". Xi also expressed that the two countries "need to increase communication and cooperation". The more accommodative and realistic stance was taken well by markets and not least the CNY which gained following the meeting.

RBA guidance and minutes: In a speech RBA governor Lowe commented on the inflationary outlook and the risk that RBA would have to hike rates prior to 2024, which is the current guidance. RBA minutes from the latest monetary policy meeting was released prior to his speech. Both the minutes and Lowe expressed that the inflation outlook is highly uncertain but that multi-year wage agreements and lower energy prices in Australia than abroad still suggest that inflation will not reach the middle of the inflation target until 2023. Meanwhile, Lowe also opened a door for an earlier hike by stating "It is still plausible that the first increase in the cash rate will not be before 2024". AUD rates rose and AUD FX gained modestly.

Denmark: Yesterday, both quarterly GDP (2.0% q/q) and wages (3.2% y/y) came in stronger than expected in Q3, with the latter being one more data point showing a labour market that is running hot. For more information see Flash Comment Denmark - Labour market heating up, 15 November.

Norway: Overnight quarterly consumer confidence data was released from Finance Norway. The release showed a further rise in Norwegian consumer optimism with the aggregate index hitting the highest level since Q3 2019 - albeit the rise was smaller than last quarter. The release also shows that Norwegian households remain very upbeat on the national economy but have become a little more wary on their private economies which might be related to higher electricity prices, rate hikes and fiscal spending according to Finance Norway. Overall, the release does not change that we expect the next Norges Bank rate hike in December.

Equities: Equities saw mostly small moves to the start of the week. Sector performance was also tightly bunched, but a slight preference for defensives and value as the yield curve steepened. US equities close little changed with Dow, S&P and Nasdaq unchanged and Russell 2000 -0.5%. Asian markets are grinding somewhat higher this morning, although US futures have dipped into negative.

FI: Global bond yields ends the day higher with the US Treasuries driving the rise in yields. 10Y US Treasuries rose some 6bp and the curve steepened between 2Y and 10Y. In Europe, the 10Y German yield rose 3bp but there was a modest bearish flattener between 2Y and 10Y. Furthermore, ASW-spreads tightened - especially the 2Y and 5Y German ASW-spreads - as bonds underperformed swaps.

FX: The first session of the week was generally characterised by broad based EUR weakness with the single currency posting losses - especially late in the session - against most majors. On the other end of the spectre USD gained which combined with EUR weakness sent EUR/USD solidly below 1.14. USD/JPY moving back above 1.14 while both EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK edged modestly lower. GBP underperformed USD but generally had a strong session.

Credit: Despite European equities closing in green, credit sold slightly off. iTraxx Xover and Main widened 1bp and 0.3bp, respectively. HY and IG bonds closed 5bp and 2bp wider.

Nordic macro

Apart from the consumer confidence data in Norway already released we get Prospera inflation expectations out of Sweden this morning.