Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0528; (P) 1.0552; (R1) 1.0568; More....

EUR/CHF is staying in consolidation from 1.0532 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further fall is expected with 1.0602 resistance intact. Break of 1.0532 will resume the down trend from 1.1149 and target 100% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0694 from 1.0936 at 1.0481. On the upside, however, break of 1.0602 will turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound back towards 1.0678 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, current downside momentum argues that fall from 1.1149 is probably resuming the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high). Next focus is 1.0505 (2020 low). Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223 next. Strong support from 1.0505 will bring rebound first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0936 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2507; (P) 1.2551; (R1) 1.2627; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for the moment. As noted before, fall from 1.2947 might have completed with three waves down to 1.2286. Further rally would be seen back to retest 1.2894/2947 resistance zone. On the downside, however, break of 1.2478 minor support will mix up near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for now. The pair draw support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7271; (P) 0.7306; (R1) 0.7325; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside as fall from 0.7555 is in progress. As noted before, corrective rise from 0.7105 should have completed with three waves up to 0.7555. Deeper fall would be seen to 0.7169 support first, and then 0.7105 low. We'd look for bottoming signal again at around 0.6991 key support. On the upside, break of 0.7431 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we're seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.87; (P) 114.01; (R1) 114.21; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside for retesting 114.69 high. Sustained break there will resume larger up trend for 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. On the downside, in case of another fall, we'd continue to expect downside to be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9183; (P) 0.9204; (R1) 0.9231; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays on the upside as rebound from 0.9084 short term bottom is in progress. Further rise would be seen back to retest 0.9367 resistance. On the downside, below 0.9172 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 0.9084 instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We'd pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.

Technical analysis

The RSI is below level 50.

The Stochastics is below level 50.

Most likely scenario – SELL

Target prices: 1,851.30 1,832.34

Alternative scenario – BUY

Target prices: 1,862.66 1,868.81

Key levels

Support 1,851.30 1,832.34

Resistance 1,862.66 1,868.81

Market movers today

• From the US, we will get University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment survey for November, which includes the US consumer's inflation expectations. Both short and long-term estimates have risen, but so far consumers have seen most of the current inflationary pressures as transitory. September JOLTS labor market survey will also be released, which will provide further insight into how the ongoing labor shortages have developed.
• From the Euro Area, September's Industrial Production is due for release.
• On the central bank front, ECB's Lane and Fed's Williams will be on the wires.

The 60 second overview

Global environment: Markets are still digesting Wednesday's significant inflation surprise in the US. With the US market having been out for Veteran's Day yesterday a key focus will be on treasury markets today as we head into the weekly close. Increasingly it seems that the narrative of global inflation only temporarily being higher is fading and we have already seen several central banks move monetary tightening forward in time whilst lowering growth projections. In our view, a key risk for 2022 is considerably faster monetary tightening - especially in the US - which by extension leaves downside risk to consensus growth expectations.

Global COVID-19 update: The big focus is still on rising new cases in the Northern Hemisphere. In the US, new cases are no longer declining and we expect a new wave over the winter. In Europe, the situation is getting worse with e.g. German new cases sky-rocketing to record-high levels. The Netherlands, Ireland, Belgium, Austria, Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic are also hit hard at the moment. New cases are rising in France, Italy and Spain but are overall still low. Looking at the Nordics, new cases are also climbing, especially in Denmark although deaths at this stage remain very low. New cases are coming down again in the UK and it seems like the booster effort has helped.

We think the next 3-6M will be challenging in Europe and in the US and we expect many countries will re-introduce (or tighten) some of the soft measures such as face mask requirements and COVID-19 green pass. We still think the bar for new lockdowns is higher this year due to the vaccine roll-out but countries with low vaccine uptake may be forced to implement tougher measures. Also, we expect a weaker relationship between new cases and hospitalisations/deaths, especially in countries with high vaccine uptakes, but if the waves get bigger than last year (due to a combination of fewer restrictions and a more transmissible variant), hospitalisations may still increase to the same levels as last year.

Equities: Yesterday was a fairly quiet but positive day for stocks with notably no signals from the US Treasury market due to the above mentioned holiday. On top of this, the data calendar provided little for markets to trade on and the earnings season is no longer a driver. Materials stood out as the winner yesterday as Evergrande once again, avoided a default, industrial metals improved and EM optimism increase. In US Dow -0.4%, S&P 500 +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.5% and Russell 2000 +0.8%. This morning we are witnessing some EM optimism with Alibaba reporting a record in Singles Day sales. Property developers are in red again and hence Hang Seng is underperforming. Futures in US and Europe are slightly higher.

FI: Small rise in yields of 1-2bp on most of the curve with the 2Y yields almost unchanged. Bund ASW spread continued to widen: nearly 2bp at yesterday's session and are now at the highest level since summer of 2019 (except from the March'20 spike).

FX: Broad USD continued to rally yesterday. EUR/USD fell to 1.1450, USD/JPY held steady above 114 and USD/NOK and USD/SEK trade around 8.70 level.

Credit: Both CDS indices and cash bonds closed slightly tighter yesterday. iTraxx Xover tightened 0.3bp and Main 0.2bp. HY bonds tightened 1bp and IG 0.5bp.

General trend

• USD index slightly extended gain.
• US equity FUTS remained modestly higher in Asia.
• Japanese cos. expected to report earnings include Mizuho Financial, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Toshiba, Tokyo Electron, Yamato Holdings, Japan Display, Japan Post Holdings, Dai-ichi Life, Dentsu, Shinsei Bank, Suruga Bank, Aozora Bank.
• Hon Hai is expected to report results.
• Companies expected to report during the NY morning include Coupang, Spectrum Brands.
• Japan PM Kishida said to have ordered coronavirus measures be compiled by Friday (Nov 12th).
• China PBOC may conduct MLF operation around Nov 15th.
• Reportedly virtual meeting between Biden and Xi has been tentatively scheduled for Monday (Nov 15th) – press.

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened flat.
• (AU) Australia sells A$1.0B v A$1.0B indicated in 0.25% Nov 2025 bonds, avg yield 1.3045%, bid to cover 6.5x.
• (NZ) New Zealand Oct Manufacturing PMI: 54.3 v 51.6 prior.

Japan

• Nikkei 225 opened +0.4%.
• (JP) Nikkei 225 Nov options to settle at 29,388.
• (JP) Japan said to consider an extraordinary diet session starting around Dec 6th - Press.
• (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Matsuno: Policies on increases in oil prices will be included in stimulus package; Want to respond actively on the economy, including on prices.
• (JP) Japan Econ Min Yamagiwa: Will allocate budgets for raising Govt set wages in nursery and care workers in stimulus package.
• (JP) Japan government stimulus draft does not mention the size of spending.

Korea

• Kospi opened +0.7%.
• (KR) South Korea sells 50-year bonds: avg yield 2.320% v 2.270% prior.
• (KR) South Korea Oct Export Price Index Y/Y: 25.3% v 20.2% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: 35.8% v 26.8% prior.

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng opened 1.1%; Shanghai Composite opened flat.
• (CN) Analysts in China said to warn about the risks related to indebted property developers that are reliant on USD denominated debt - Chinese press.
• (CN) China Economic Daily: Warns against speculating with Metaverse stocks, investors shouldn't be hasty when entering into a new and immature concept.
• (CN) Guangzhou and Shenzhen to ease curbs related to car purchases, the governments will ease limits related to car license applications.
• (CN) China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 6.4065 v 6.4145 prior.
• (CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY100B in 7-day reverse repos v CNY100B prior; Net CNY0B v Net inject CNY50B prior.
• (CN) China Official: Common prosperity first needs high quality development, China should raise the share of direct taxes; encourages entrepreneurs to participate in redistribution.
• (CN) Former PBOC Adviser Yu Yongding: Evergrande problem is controllable; China Capital Market has limited impact on the global markets; China has very strong macro adjustment capabilities.
• (CN) China Ministry of Finance (MOF) sells 3-month bills and 30-year bonds.
• (CN) China State Planner (NDRC): To increase the exploration of oil, Natural gas, and rare earth minerals during 2021-2025; to enhance reserve building related to oil and rare earths.
• Komatsu: Reports Oct China usage of its machines Y/Y: -20.0% v -18.3% prior [7th straight decline].

North America

• (MX) Mexico Central Bank (BANXICO) Raises Overnight Rate by 25BPS TO 5.00%; as expected ; Split decision.

Europe

• (EU) Belarus threatens to halt gas supply to EU if sanctions are imposed over migrant crisis - Press.
• (RU) US has privately warned Europe that Russian troops could plan an invasion of Ukraine - press.
• (UK) Brexit Min Frost: Will signal to EU that the Govt is ready to renew efforts on Northern Ireland Protocol Deal.

Other:

• (MY) Malaysia Q3 GDP Q/Q: -3.6% v -2.0%e; Y/Y: -4.5% v -2.6%e.
• OPEC Monthly Oil Report 2021 Outlook: Cuts 2021 global oil demand growth from 5.8M bpd to 5.7M bpd (total consumption seen at 96.4M bpd), 2022 Outlook: Maintains 2022 global oil demand growth at 4.2M bpd (100.6 bpdM v 100.8M bpd prior).

Levels as of 00:20 ET

• Nikkei 225, +1%, ASX 200 +0.9% , Hang Seng +0.1%; Shanghai Composite +0.1% ; Kospi +1.5%.
• Equity S&P500 Futures: +0.1%; Nasdaq100 +0.2%, Dax +0.1%; FTSE100 flat.
• EUR 1.1452-1.1436 ; JPY 114.30-114.03 ; AUD 0.7300-0.7274 ;NZD 0.7038-0.6997.
• Gold -0.3% at $1,858/oz; Crude Oil -0.7% at $81.03/brl; Copper -0.4% at $4.3870/lb.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3339; (P) 1.3386; (R1) 1.3413; More...

GBP/USD's decline from 1.4248 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside. Next target is 1.3164 fibonacci level. On the upside, break of 1.3606 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the structure of the fall from 1.4248 suggests that it's a correction to the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) only. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 1.4376 key resistance (2018 high) will add to the case of long term bullish reversal. However, sustained trading below 1.3164 will revive some medium term bearishness and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1432; (P) 1.1460; (R1) 1.1477; More...

EUR/USD's fall is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Current decline should now target 100% projection 1.1908 to 1.1523 from 1.1691  at 1.1306, which is close to long term fibonacci level at 1.1289. On the upside, break of 1.1607 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2348 should at least be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low). As long as 1.1691 resistance holds, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289. Nevertheless break of 1.1691 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2348 high.