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USD/CAD Decline Could Continue

The US Dollar has declined by 67 pips or 0.53% against the Canadian Dollar since Wednesday's trading session. The currency pair breached the 50– hour SMA support level at 1.2595 on Wednesday.

The USD/CAD exchange rate could continue to edge lower in a descending channel pattern during the following trading session. The potential target for sellers will be near the 1.2500 area.

However, bearish traders may encounter support at 1.2560 during Thursday's trading session.

GBP/JPY Breakout Occurs

On Wednesday, the British Pound declined by 118 pips or 0.77% against the Japanese Yen. A breakout occurred through the lower boundary of an ascending channel pattern during Wednesday's trading session.

Given that a breakout has occurred, bearish traders may continue to pressure the exchange rate lower during the following trading session. The potential target for sellers will be near the 150.50 area.

However, the 200– hour simple moving average at 151.02 could provide support for the GBP/JPY currency exchange rate within this session.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1524; (P) 1.1563; (R1) 1.1595; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside at this point. The decline from 1.2348 high is in progress and should target 1.1289 medium term fibonacci level. On the upside, break of 1.1639 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that rise from 1.0635 (2020 low) has completed at 1.2348. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289. Note also that rejection by 55 week EMA (1.1830) also carries medium term bearish implication. Firm break of 1.1289 will pave the way to retest 1.0635 low. On the upside, though, break of 1.1908 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2348 high.

AUD/USD Could Edge Higher

During the first half of Wednesday's trading session, the Australian Dollar declined by 59 pips or 0.81% against the US Dollar. However, the currency pair rebounded from the low level of 0.7230 at the end of the session.

Everything being equal, the exchange rate could continue to trend bullish in an ascending channel pattern during the following trading session. The potential target for buyers will be near the 0.7340 area.

Although, the currency exchange rate could encounter resistance at 0.7300 within this session.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3542; (P) 1.3589; (R1) 1.3633; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, above 1.3646 will resume the rebound from 1.3410 short term bottom for 1.3749 resistance first, which is close to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3730). On the downside, though, below 1.3530 minor support will retain near term bearishness, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3410 low. Firm break there will extend the fall from 1.4248 and target 1.3164 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 is at least a correction to the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low). Such correction could extend to 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164 before completion. However, considering the rejection by 1.4376 key resistance (2018 high), sustained trading below 1.3164 will argue that it's indeed a bearish trend reversal and would target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493. Nevertheless, break of 1.3912 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and target 1.4248/4376 resistance zone again.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9261; (P) 0.9285; (R1) 0.9297; More....

USD/CHF is staying in range below 0.9367 and intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 0.9214 support holds, further rally is in favor. On the upside, break of 0.9367 will resume the rise from 0.8925 to 0.9471 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.9214 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9017 support again.

In the bigger picture, the strong rally above 55 week EMA (now at 0.9188) now tilts favor to the case of bullish trend reversal. That is, decline from 1.3042 (2016 high) is probably completed at 0.8756 already. Sustained break of 0.9471 resistance should confirm this case and pave the way to retest 1.0342 ahead. However, rejection by 0.9471 will mix up the outlook again and retain some medium term bearishness.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.16; (P) 111.47; (R1) 111.75; More...

USD/JPY is staying in range below 112.07 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another retreat cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 110.44 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 112.07 will extend larger rise to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71 next. However, break of 110.44 will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 109.11 support.

In the bigger picture, break of 111.71 resistance suggests that the whole corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed at 101.18 (2020 low) already. Medium term bullishness is also affirmed as USD/JPY stays well above 55 week EMA (now at 108.60). Sustained trading above 111.71 will affirm this bullish case. Rise from 101.18 could then be resuming whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) through 118.65. This will now be the preferred case as long as 108.71 support holds.

EUR/JPY Bears Could Prevail

Downside risks dominated the EUR/JPY currency pair on Wednesday. As a result, the common European currency declined by 108 pips or 0.83% against the Japanese Yen during yesterday's trading session.

All things being equal, the exchange rate could continue to edge lower in a descending channel pattern during the following trading session. The potential target for sellers will be near the 128.00 area.

However, the currency exchange rate may encounter support at 128.40 within this session.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7235; (P) 0.7265; (R1) 0.7304; More...

AUD/USD is staying in range of 0.7169/7315 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.7315 minor resistance intact, further fall is in favor. On the downside, below 0.7169 will target a test on 0.7105 low. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.8006 for 0.6991 support next. On the upside, above 0.7315 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7477 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we're seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2561; (P) 1.2604; (R1) 1.2634; More...

USD/CAD's fall from 1.2891 is in progress at this point. Such decline is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.2947, and should target 1.2492 support and possibly below. But overall, with 1.2421 support intact, rise from 1.2005 should still be in progress for another rise through 1.2947 at a later stage. Break of 1.2773 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2947 high.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.