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Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.82; (P) 111.16; (R1) 111.40; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 112.07 is is progress. Downside of retreat should be contained by 110.44 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 112.07 will extend larger rise to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71 next. However, break of 110.44 will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 109.11 support.

In the bigger picture, break of 111.71 resistance suggests that the whole corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed at 101.18 (2020 low) already. Medium term bullishness is also affirmed as USD/JPY stays well above 55 week EMA (now at 108.60). Sustained trading above 111.71 will affirm this bullish case. Rise from 101.18 could then be resuming whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) through 118.65. This will now be the preferred case as long as 108.71 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9279; (P) 0.9308; (R1) 0.9334; More....

USD/CHF's fall from 0.9367 accelerates lower today, but stays above 0.9214 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.9367 will resume the rise from 0.8925 to 0.9471 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.9214 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9017 support again.

In the bigger picture, the strong rally above 55 week EMA (now at 0.9188) now tilts favor to the case of bullish trend reversal. That is, decline from 1.3042 (2016 high) is probably completed at 0.8756 already. Sustained break of 0.9471 resistance should confirm this case and pave the way to retest 1.0342 ahead. However, rejection by 0.9471 will mix up the outlook again and retain some medium term bearishness.

Swiss Franc is the winner so far today, as Dollar and Yen pare back some of last week's gains. Meanwhile, Euro is also soft after poor investor confidence data. On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar is following closely as second strongest, on anticipation of RBNZ rate hike later in the week. Other currencies are mixed for now, awaiting a clear direction.

Technically, GBP/USD is now pressing 1.3608 minor resistance and break there should confirm short term bottoming. We'd see if that would be followed by stronger rise in Sterling, and pushes EUR/GBP towards 0.8499 support. Or, it would be accompanied by selloff in Dollar, with EUR/USD breaking 1.1682 resistance and USD/CHF breaking 0.9214 support.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.07%. DAX is down -0.14%. CAC is down -0.01%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.0026 to -0.219. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -1.13%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -2.19%. Singapore Strait Times rose 1.26%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0040 to 0.051. China was on holiday.

ECB de Guindos: Structural impact of current inflation goes beyond expected

ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said the current increase in inflation is "not only responding to base effects but is also a component that is going to have a more structural impact." He added, "this is having an impact that goes beyond what we were expecting only a few months ago." He expected supply bottlenecks to ease but emphasized the importance to "avoid second-round effects".

On monetary policy, de Guindos said it will "remain accommodative but the goal is price stability." "If economic activity normalizes, PEPP will have accomplished its mission."

Eurozone Sentix investor confidence dropped to 16.9, still a mid-cycle slowdown

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence dropped to 16.9 in October, down from 19.6, missed expectation of 19.0. That's the third decline in a row and the lowest level since April. Current Situation Index dropped from 30.8 to 26.3. Expectations index dropped from 9.0 to 8.0, fifth decline in a row, lowest since May 2020.

Sentix said, "Autumn revival fails to materialize for the time being". It added, "so far, the criteria for a mere 'mid-cycle slowdown' have still been met. It remains crucial that the expectations do not fall below the zero line. For then a stronger slump in economic output would be expected - a trend reversal would then be in the offing."

Swiss retail sales rose 0.5% yoy in Aug, CPI unchanged at 0.9% yoy in Sep

Swiss real retail sales rose 0.5% yoy in August, below expectation of 0.6% yoy. In nominal terms, sales rose 0.2% yoy. Excluding service stations, nominal turnover dropped -0.4% yoy. Sales of food, drinks and tobacco dropped -2.9% yoy nominal. No-food sector rose 2.1% yoy nominal.

CPI came in at 0.0% mom, 0.9% yoy in September, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.1% yoy. The annual rate was unchanged from August's reading.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9279; (P) 0.9308; (R1) 0.9334; More....

USD/CHF's fall from 0.9367 accelerates lower today, but stays above 0.9214 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.9367 will resume the rise from 0.8925 to 0.9471 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.9214 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9017 support again.

In the bigger picture, the strong rally above 55 week EMA (now at 0.9188) now tilts favor to the case of bullish trend reversal. That is, decline from 1.3042 (2016 high) is probably completed at 0.8756 already. Sustained break of 0.9471 resistance should confirm this case and pave the way to retest 1.0342 ahead. However, rejection by 0.9471 will mix up the outlook again and retain some medium term bearishness.

Economic Indicators Update

Early in the first full week of October, the oil market has decent expectations while waiting for the next OPEC+ meeting. Brent is trading at $79.00 and will surely very actively respond to all comments, both from the cartel itself and its members.

The basic scenario implies that the cartel may stick to its strategy of getting back 400K barrels per day to the oil market. What might seem very interesting is demand/supply estimations and the market response that will follow.

There is also a more progressive scenario, according to which the cartel may announce the market’s need for raw materials and a possibility of an oil output increase because the global oil shortage continues. However, this possibility is pretty unlikely.

In the H4 chart, after finishing another ascending impulse at 79.70, Brent is expected to continue trading within the uptrend with the target at 82.82. Possibly, today the asset may consolidate around 80.00. Later, the market may break the range to the upside and form one more ascending structure towards 80.60 or even reach the above-mentioned target at 82.82. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 0 within the histogram area and may continue growing towards new highs.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after completing the ascending impulse at 79.70 along with the correction towards 78.00 and then finishing another ascending structure to reach 79.80, Brent is consolidating below the latter level. Possibly, the asset may break this range to the upside and form a new one around 80.00. Later, the market may break this range as well and resume trading within the uptrend with the short-term target at 81.35. After that, the instrument may correct towards 80.00 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 82.82. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is falling to rebound from 20 and then start another growth towards 80.

Fresh bulls from new nearly ten-month low (1.3411) hold grip for the third straight day and crack pivotal 1.1.3570/1.3600 resistance zone (former lows of July/Aug / daily Tenkan-sen/Fibo 38.2% of 1.3912/1.3411).

Renewed risk appetite keeps pound afloat in the neat term, however, firm break above 1.36 zone barriers is needed to sideline larger bears and allow for stronger correction.

Improving daily studies (momentum is running north, stochastic reversed from negative territory) support the action, while Friday’s daily cloud twist could be also magnetic.

Close above 1.3600 zone would generate bullish signal and expose next pivot at 1.3662 (daily Kijun-sen/50% retracement) which guard key barriers lay at 1.3721 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.3912/1.3411) and 1.3750 (weekly cloud top). Failure to clear 1.3662 would signal that recovery loses traction and increase risk of stall.

Res: 1.3603, 1.3662, 1.3690, 1.3721.
Sup: 1.3530, 1.3512, 1.3433, 1.3411.

Notes/Observations

• Markets continue to monitor energy crunch and China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis.
• Brexit jitters on reports the UK was planning to issue a threat and prepared to trigger Article 16 unless the EU agreed to replace the Northern Ireland Protocol.
• OPEC JMMC and Ministers meet today; OPEC+ likely to maintain its existing deal to add 400K bpd to its output for November.
• US Jobs report on Friday, expected to cement the November taper by the Fed.

Asia

• China said to have sent over 6 dozen warplanes into Taiwan defense zone over the past 2 days.
• US State Department spokesperson said to be concerned with China's rising military activity near Taiwan. Urges Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and coercion against Taiwan.
• Japan parliament officially elects Kishida as PM (as expected).
• Japan PM Kishida said to plan Oct 31st as the date for Japan's General Election.
• Japan LDP Sec Gen Amari said government will immediately compile a large extra budget after the general elections.

Europe

• UK Govt has drawn up proposal to permanently replace agreement with the EU that’s in place to maintain an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
• UK Brexit Min Frost said to be planning to issue a threat that the UK was prepared to trigger Article 16 unless the EU agreed to replace the Northern Ireland Protocol.
• Ireland Foreign Min Coveney: Not expecting Britain to trigger Article 16 Clause over Northern Ireland trade.
• PM Johnson said to refuse to rule out raising taxes again just three weeks before Chancellor Sunak announces his annual Budget.

Americas

• US Trade Rep Tai set to unveil China trade policy Monday (Oct 4th) after concluding top to bottom review of last administration's trade policy. US said to be expected to declare that China was not complying with the Phase 1 trade deal reached under Trump.
• House Speaker Pelosi said to have given her party one more month to pass a $1.2T infrastructure bill.
• Democrats said to be looking into two different approaches to reduce the cost of the bill: eliminating proposed programs entirely or cutting their duration.

Energy

• OPEC+ holds technical and ministerial meetings.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 -0.08% at 452.52, FTSE +0.11% at 7,034.55, DAX -0.14% at 15,134.65, CAC-40 -0.10% at 6,511.47, IBEX-35 -0.02% at 8,797.50, FTSE MIB -0.32% at 25,534.00, SMI +0.27% at 11,606.76, S&P 500 Futures -0.30%].
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open with a bias to the downside and drifted further into the red (IBEX notable exception trading marginally in the green); better performing sectors include energy and utilities; underperforming sectors include financials and consumer discretionary; Spanish stocks performing better following employment data; Cosmo Pharmaceuticals to acquire Cassipea; CDR final winner in bidding for Morrison’s; reportedly Sky looking to invest with Virgin Media on broadband in the UK; reportedly Fortress still interested in acquiring Sainsbury’s; focus on OPEC+ meting later in the day; no major earnings scheduled for the upcoming US session.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: French Connection [FCCN.UK] +16% (confirms deal), Ryanair [RYA.UK] +2% (traffic), Aryzta AG [ARYN.CH] -10% (earnings).
• Consumer staples: WM Morrison [MRW.UK] -4% (final offer).
• Financials: Plus500 [PLUS.UK] +2% (trading update).
• Healthcare: AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] +1% (breakthrough therapy designation in US).
• Telecom: BT Group [BT.A.UK] -5% (Sky-Virgin Media O2 deal).

Speakers

• ECB's De Guindos (Spain) reiterated view that expected to see strong growth in Q3; Delta variant of virus had not had the expected impact. Forward looking indicators showing that expansion had lost some momentum due to supply constraints, higher energy costs and bottlenecks. Reiterated Council view that pick-up in inflation due to temporary and technical factor and that factors pushing up inflation to fade in 2022. Would be vigilant to 2nd effects of price gains; monetary policy response is not the same if increase in inflation is permanent.
• UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (Fin Min) Sunak stated that was working with industry to fix supply chain issues and looking at other measures that could be done. Did not want to do more tax increases.
• UK Brexit Min Frost stated that the Northern Ireland protocol was not working and needed to change; Could not wait forever; Triggering Article 16 might be only way to protect UK (in line with speculation).
• German FDP's General Secretary Wissing stated that the FDP would not break its promise not to raise taxes.
• Poland MPC Member Ancyparowicz stated that monetary policy would be slowly normalizing as pandemic impact faded.
• Japan PM Kishida appointed his Cabinet with Suzuki being appointed Finance Minister (replaces Aso) and Yamagiwa appointed Economy Minister. Motegi remained as Foreign Min and Matsuno appointed chief Cabinet Sec (as speculated).
• US official noted thatTrade Rep Tai to start engagement with Chinese counterpart and use all available tools to enforce deal.

Currencies/Fixed Income

• USD continued to pause in its current uptrend in a quiet session.
• EUR/USD off recent lows and back above the 1.16 level. ECB members continue to play down the spike up in recent inflation data.
• GBP/USD trying to retest its pivotal 1.36 resistance level after last week’s decline. Brexit jitters continue to simmer as UK Brexit Min Frost threatened to Trigger Article 16 to protect UK.
• USD/JPY at 111.15 as the new Japanese PM and Cabinet talk of need for more stimulus.

Economic data

• (CH) Swiss Sept CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.1%e v 0.9% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.4% prior.
• (CH) Swiss Sept CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.8% v 1.1%e.
• (CH) Swiss Aug Real Retail Sales Y/Y: +0.5% v -2.3% prior.
• (ES) Spain Sept Unemployment Change: -76.1 v -82.6K prior (7th straight monthly decline).
• (TR) Turkey Sept CPI M/M: 1.3% v 1.3%e; Y/Y: 19.6% v 19.7%e; CPI Core Index Y/Y: 17.0% v 16.7%e.
• (TR) Turkey Sept PPI M/M: 1.6% v 2.1%e; Y/Y: 44.0% v 44.7%e.
• (CH) Swiss weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 714.2B v 714.5B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 637.1B v 636.0B prior.
• (BR) Brazil Sept FIPE CPI (Sao Paulo) M/M: 1.1% v 1.1%e.
• (EU) Euro Zone Oct Sentix Investor Confidence: 16.9 v 18.6e.
• (NG) Nigeria Sept Manufacturing PMI: 52.3 v 52.2 prior.

Fixed income Issuance

• (EU) ESM opened its book to sell EUR-denominated 3-year notes via syndicate; guidance seen -11bps to mid-swaps.
• (AE) UAE to sell USD-denominated 10-year, 20-year and 40-year bonds.
• (NO) Norway sold NOK2.0B vs. NOK2.0B indicated n 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.24% v 0.18% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.78x v 2.44x prior.

Looking Ahead

• OPEC+ monthly meeting.
• 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
• 05:30 ((DE) Germany to sell combined €6.0B in 3-month and 9-month BuBills.
• 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell €3.0-5.0B in 3-month and 6-month bills.
• 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of upcoming I/L bond sale (held on Fridays).
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.
• 07:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Consumer Confidence: No est v 42.7 prior.
• 07:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Leading Indicators M/M: No est v 0.12 prior.
• 07:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Domestic Vehicle Sales: No est v 78.2K prior.
• 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.
• 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
• 08:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays).
• 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) size announcement on upcoming issuance (bill and bonds).
• 08:00 (UK) BOE's Ramsden.
• 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug Building Permits M/M: +3.4%e v -3.9% prior.
• 09:00 (SG) Singapore Sept Purchasing Managers Index (PMI): 50.7e v 50.9 prior; Electronics Sector: No est v 51.0 prior.
• 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €5.6-6.8B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.
• 09:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.147B in APF Gilt purchase operation (3-7 years).
• 10:00 (US) Aug Factory Orders: 1.0%e v 0.4% prior; Factory Orders (ex-transportation): 0.4%e v 0.8% prior.
• 10:00 (US) Aug Final Durable Goods Orders: 1.8%e v 1.8% prelim; Durables (ex-transportation) No est v 0.2% prelim; Capital Goods Orders (non-defense/ex-aircraft): No est v 0.5% prelim; Capital Goods Shipments (non-defense/ex-aircraft): No est v 0.7% prelim.
• 11:00 (DK) Denmark Sept Foreign Reserves (DKK): No est v 483.4B prior.
• 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.
• 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report.
• 17:00 (KR) South Korea Sept Foreign Reserves: No est v $463.9B prior.
• 18:00 (CO) Colombia Central Bank Minutes.
• 18:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 103.7 prior.
• 19:00 (AU) Australia Sept Final PMI Services: No est v 44.9 prelim; PMI Composite: No est v 46.0 prelim.
• 19:00 (KR) South Korea Sept CPI M/M: 0.4%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 2.6% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.8%ev 1.8% prior.
• 19:30 (JP) Japan Sept Tokyo CPI Y/Y: -0.1%e v -0.4% prior; CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; CPI Ex-Fresh Food/Energy Y/Y: -0.1%e v -0.1% prior.
• 20:00 (NZ) New Zealand Sept Commodity Price Index: No est v 1.3% prior.
• 20:00 (CO) Colombia Sept CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.4%e v 4.4% prior.
• 20:00 (CO) Colombia Sept CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.1% prior.
• 20:01 (IE) Ireland Sept PMI Services: No est v 63.7 prior; PMI Composite: No est v 62.6 prior.
• 20:30 (AU) Australia Sept ANZ Job Advertisements M/M: No est v % prior.
• 20:30 (JP) Japan Sept Final PMI Services: No est v 47.4 prelim; PMI Composite: No est v 47.7 prelim.
• 20:30 (SG) Singapore Sept PMI (whole economy): No est v 52.1 prior.
• 20:30 (AU) Australia Aug Trade Balance: A$10.0Be v A$12.1B prior; Exports M/M: -3%e v 5% prior; Imports M/M: 1% v 3% prior.
• 21:00 (PH) Philippines Sept CPI Y/Y: 5.1%e v 4.9% prior.
• 23:30 (AU) RBA Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Cash Rate Target unchanged at 0.10% and maintained 3-year Yield Target at 0.10%.
• 23:30 (TH) Thailand Sept CPI M/M: 0.5%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.5%e v 0.0% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: No est v 0.1% prior.
• 23:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 3-month and 6-month Bills.

Then SNP500 is bullish generally but there is a stronger pullback which is taking place.

We can see the bearish move possible on a confirmed Inside bar. The current candle might confirm it at the daily close. Point A is our entry zone on a breakdown of an inside bar structure if it forms. The first target is the TP zone 1 and the second target is the TP zone 2. See the chart for specific levels and zones.

Oil awaits OPEC+

Oil markets are quiet in Asia with mainland China and South Korea on holiday. On Friday, a weaker US dollar saw Brent crude and WTI rise modestly in lacklustre trading. Brent crude rose by 1.05% to USD 79.15, and Brent crude rose by 0.90% to $75.70 a barrel, where both remain in Asia.

Oil markets are clearly waiting for the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting this afternoon where the grouping will decide on whether to adjust production targets to mollify the tremors in world energy markets. I expect a binary knee-jerk reaction to the meeting’s decisions. A hike in production targets leading to an immediate spike lower in prices, and, if, unchanged, a spike higher in oil prices.

Brent crude could well trade at either USD 76.00 or USD 82.00 when the meeting results are released. Given that natural gas prices remain in space, having risen again today in Asia, I believe any knee-jerk spike lower by either Brent crude or WTI will be short-lived. Even if OPEC+ increases production, there will be at least a month’s delay and probably longer before the pumps spool up. Nothing that OPEC+ does will alleviate immediate demand in the oil spot market and will certainly not impact gas markets.

Brent crude has support at USD 76.60 and USD 76.00 a barrel, with resistance at USD 79.50 and USD 80.75 a barrel. WTI has support at USD 74.25 and USD 73.00 a barrel, with resistance at USD 76.00 and USD 76.60 a barrel. The technical outlook remains constructive for both contracts.

Gold rises on lower US dollar

Gold rose modestly on Friday as the US dollar eased. Gold finished the day 0.22% higher at USD 1761.00 an ounce, before easing slightly to USD 1798.20 an ounce in moribund Asian trading today. What will give long-suffering gold bulls some cheer is that gold has consolidated the strong gains it made last Thursday.

The relief could be short-lived though if the US dollar uptrend resumes in earnest this week. However, if currency markets spend the week consolidating ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls, the gold rally could continue as more medium-term bottom fishers are lured in.

Gold has support at USD 1750.00 followed by a double bottom at USD 1722.00 an ounce. Initial resistance appears at USD 1766.00 followed by USD 1780.00 an ounce. Gold will face far more formidable resistance in the USD 1800.00 to USD 1808.00 an ounce zone, technical resistance and housing the 100 and 200-day moving averages.

Profit-taking forces the US dollar lower

With US stock markets finishing Friday on a positive note, boosted by Merck’s oral Covid-19 treatment that lifted hopes of a boost in economic recovery, the US dollar gave back some more of its recent gains. US yields also fell modestly, further undermining the US dollar with soothed nerves on Friday lessening the haven bid. The dollar index fell by 0.18% to 94.07.

The dollar index has risen slightly to 94.10 in Asia as US 10-year futures fell after the Democrat legislative logjam became even more so over the weekend. Overall though, with a number of holidays in the region, Asian currency markets are very quiet today.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD staged corrective rallies on Friday as the US dollar fell. However, EUR/USD remains below 1.1600 in Asia this morning and remains near to the bottom of its weekly range. Only a rally through 1.1660 changes the bearish outlook. GBP/USD rose 0.50% on Friday to 1.3545, edging lower to 1.3535 in Asia. The aggressive rally is as much a function of the equally aggressive sell-off last week than anything else. There is still plenty of risk around the pound, be it energy or northern Ireland/Europe, of supply chain shortages. Only a move above 1.3620 signals respite.

USD/JPY has fallen back to 111.05 today as US yields edged lower pushing the US dollar lower on Friday. Despite a change in prime minister and an impending election, USD/JPY remains strictly a yield differential play right now. Pivot support remains at 110.50. The easing of risk aversion nerves on Friday has seen both AUD/USD and NZD/USD rise by around 0.50% to 0.7260 and 0.6935 as of this morning. Both remain vulnerable from a technical basis and any drop in risk sentiment, something I suspect, is only taking a short break. NZD/USD fell this morning after Covid-19 cases were reported outside of Auckland at the weekend. However, the government is going ahead with a lightening of restrictions in Auckland this week, and it has regained all of those losses.

With mainland China and South Korea on holiday, Asian currencies are having a very quiet session today, and are mostly unchanged from their New York closes. Asian currencies pared their losses on Friday as the US dollar weakened but I believe the US dollar weakness is temporary and their downtrend will resume, particularly the more vulnerable INR, IDR, THB and PHP. We could be in for a week of range-trading ahead though ahead of Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls. A strong number will reinvigorate the Fed taper and be a headwind for Asian FX.

Evergrande weighing on Japan and Hong Kong markets

US markets started the quarter strongly on Friday, boosted by positive results from a trial of Merck’s oral Covid-19 treatment, a postponement of the US debt ceiling deadline and start-of-month inflows. The S&P 500 rallied by 1.15%, the Nasdaq rose by 0.82% and the Dow Jones jumped by 1.44%, although the buy-the-dippers couldn’t prevent a negative weekly performance overall. Futures on all three have given back some of those gains this morning, Nasdaq futures retreating by 0.40%, while Dow and S&P futures are 0.25% lower.

That sees a mixed performance in Asia, complicated by the news that Evergrande’s stock has been suspended in Hong Kong, with a USD 260 million note due for repayment today. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 has fallen by 1.10% ahead of a parliamentary vote also, to confirm the appointment of the new Prime Minister. South Korea and mainland China are closed.

Hong Kong has sunk by 2.55% on Evergrande nerves while Taipei is down by 0.60%. Singapore is rallying strongly though, rising by 1.25% today as news circulates about the government talking to other governments about vaccinated travel. Kuala Lumpur is flat with Bangkok 0.75% higher, Jakarta leaping 1.40% higher, and Manila rising 0.30%. With the cyclical legacy-industry-orientated Dow Jones outperforming Friday, it appears that similarly structured ASEAN markets are following suit.

Australian markets are also rallying strongly today, with iron ore futures rising 5.0% in Asia, and natural gas futures rising by 3.60%. However, it is banks leading the charge on an oversubscribed CBA buyback as holiday-thinned markets follow New York’s lead. The ASX 200 and All Ordinaries have climbed by 0.80%.

European markets have an equally thin data calendar ahead of them today, and watching the outperformance of the Dow Jones and ASEAN and Australian markets, are likely to open higher this afternoon after finishing lower on Friday. Much will depend on the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting this afternoon. If OPEC+ remains unmoved, northern hemisphere energy woes will reassert themselves, which could undo any initial moves higher.