Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.88; (P) 110.10; (R1) 110.51; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3750; (P) 1.3803; (R1) 1.3839; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.3890 will resume the rise from 1.3601 to 1.3982 resistance first. Decisive break there will l indicate that fall from 1.4248 has completed. Near term outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.4248. However, on the downside, break of 1.3730 support will bring retest of 1.3570/3601 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3482 resistance turned support holds, we'd still treat price actions from 1.4248 as a corrective move. That is, up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) is in favor to resume. Decisive break of 1.4376 key resistance (2018 high) would indeed carry long term bullish implications. However, sustained break of 1.3482 will at least bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164, or even further to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9153; (P) 0.9176; (R1) 0.9219; More....

USD/CHF rises slightly today but stays in range of 0.9098/9241 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.9241 resistance should resume the rise from 0.8925 through 0.927. On the downside, break of 0.9098 will target 0.9017 support first. Further break there will likely resume the decline from 0.9471 through 0.8925 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is still struggling around 55 week EMA (now at 0.9176) and outlook is mixed for now. Confirmed rejection by the 55 week EMA will retain medium term bearishness. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 would resume through 0.8756 low at a later stage. However, sustained trading above 55 week EMA will tilt favor to the case of bullish reversal. Focus would then be turned to 0.9471 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1825; (P) 1.1855; (R1) 1.1872; More...

EUR/USD's retreat from 1.1908 continues today but stays above 1.1792 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of 1.1907 resistance will indicate that fall from 1.2265, as well as the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, have completed. Near term outlook will be turned bullish for 1.2265/2348 resistance zone. However, on the downside, rejection by 1.1907 followed by break of 1.1792 support will dampen the bullish case, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.1663 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

Euro and Swiss Franc weaken mildly in mixed markets today. New Zealand Dollar firms up together with Yen and Dollar. Meanwhile, Canadian Dollar is also soft, awaiting BoC policy decision. Major European indices are trading in red, but losses are limited. US futures also point to slightly lower open. Gold is trying to reclaim 1800 handle after breaching it. WTI crude oil is slightly up, and could head to retest 70 handle.

Technically, we'd continue to keep an eye on 1.2706 resistance in USD/CAD. Firm break above would revive near term bullishness, for resuming the larger rise form 1.2005 through 1.2947 high. Meanwhile, break of 86.53 support in CAD/JPY would indicate rejection by 55 day EMA again. In this case, correction from 91.16 would likely resume through 84.65 support.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.40%. DAX is down -0.82%. CAC is down -0.32%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.010 at -0.331. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.89%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.12%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.04%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -1.27%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0055 to 0.046.

ECB Holzmann: We may be able to normalize monetary policy sooner than most expect

ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann, Bank of Austria head, said in an Eurofi Magazine article, "there is the possibility that we may be able to normalize monetary policy sooner than most financial market experts expect." He pointed to upward price pressures which could turn into inflation expectations.

Holzmann added, "this does not mean that we will withdraw accommodation prematurely, but rather that accommodation will be needed for a shorter period than what markets expect."

Released from Eurozone, France trade deficit widened to EUR -7.0B in July. Italy retail sales dropped -0.4% mom in July.

BoJ Kuroda: We will continue with our current monetary easing

In an interview by Nikkei, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, "we will continue with our current monetary easing to support corporate funding, and stand ready to take additional easing measures without hesitation as needed." He added that there is no plan to end the asset purchases or begin selling its holdings.

Most candidates in the race to replace Yoshihide Suga as LDP leader and Prime Minister are pushing for another big pandemic relief package. Kuroda said, "even if fiscal policy becomes more aggressive, interest rates will remain low and help enhance the effect of fiscal policy."

"Even if fiscal policy becomes more aggressive, interest rates will remain low and help enhance the effect of fiscal policy," he added.

Japan Q2 GDP growth upgrade to 0.5% qoq, 1.9% annualized

Japan GDP growth was finalized at 0.5% qoq, 1.9% annualized in Q2. It's upgraded from initial estimate of 0.3% qoq, 1.3% annualized. Capital expenditure grew 2.3% qoq, upgraded from preliminary reading of 1.7% qoq. Private consumption grew 0.3% qoq, upgraded from 0.8% qoq.

Also released, bank lending rose 0.6% yoy in August, below expectation of 1.0% yoy. Eco watcher sentiment dropped from 48.4 to 34.7 in August. Current account surplus narrowed to JPY 1.41T in July.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1825; (P) 1.1855; (R1) 1.1872; More...

EUR/USD's retreat from 1.1908 continues today but stays above 1.1792 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of 1.1907 resistance will indicate that fall from 1.2265, as well as the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, have completed. Near term outlook will be turned bullish for 1.2265/2348 resistance zone. However, on the downside, rejection by 1.1907 followed by break of 1.1792 support will dampen the bullish case, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.1663 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

Economic Indicators Update

Notes/Observations

• Recent move higher in bond yields take some momentum out of equity prices.

Asia

• Japan Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Annualized Q/Q: 1.9% v 1.6%e.

Europe

• France Stats Agency (Insee) raises French 2021 GDP growth from 6.0% to 6.25%, on the verge over moving past impact of COVID.
• PM Johnson: Do not want any more tax increases during this Parliament, but can't rule out further tax increases for the UK (*Reminder: On Sept 7th PM Johnson stressed the need to help the NHS recover from the pandemic and confirmed plan for a 1.25% health and social care tax; dividend income to be taxed 8.75% starting in April 2022 (prior 7.5%).
• House of Commons to vote on PM Johnson's proposal to raise National Insurance to pay for health and social care on Wed, Sept 8th.

Americas

• Fed's Bullard said to be pushing for a quick taper after weaker than expect jobs data (Reminder: previously noted that he would like to begin tapering now and finish by Q1 2022).
• Sen Manchin (D-WV) said to have privately warned the White House and Congressional leaders he has specific policy objections the President Biden’s $3.5T spending plans. Would support as little as $1.0T of it with $1.5T at the high end.
• House Republicans said to be facing increased pressure to oppose a bipartisan infrastructure bill when they return to DC later this month.

Energy

• IAEA stated it was increasingly concerned that issues around undeclared Iran nuclear sites remained unresolved. Noted that Iran had produced 10kg of near weapons grade 60% enriched uranium.
• US wanted to consult with partners on best path forward as it did not know when indirect nuclear discussions with Iran might resume.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 -1.25% at 466.96, FTSE -1.18% at 7,065.20, DAX -1.50% at 15,605.55, CAC-40 -1.28% at 6,640.31, IBEX-35 -1.29% at 8,779.50, FTSE MIB -1.02% at 25,808.00, SMI -1.45% at 12,165.40, S&P 500 Futures -0.29%].
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open down across the board; all sectors open the day in the red, but the least negative include consumer discretionary and technology; sectors leading to the downside inclue industrials and energy ; automotive sector dragged by Renault CEO saying a full merger with Nissan not possible; Morrisons starts auction procedure between Fortress and Market; Sanofi acquires Kadmon; Dongfeng sells stake in Stellantis; Smisths Group sells medical unit to ICU; earnings expected during the upcoming US session include GameStop and Lululemon.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: Smiths Group [SMIN.UK] +4% (divestment), Bakkavor [BAKK.UK] +5% (earnings), Asos [ASC.UK] -2% (block trade), Interparfums [ITP.FR] -5% (earnings).
• Consumer staples: Clas Ohlson [CLASB.SE[] -9% (earnings).
• Healthcare: Sanofi [SAN.FR} -2% (acquires Kadmon).

Speakers

• ECB's Holzmann (Austria; hawk) stated that saw potential significant upside inflation risks; could be able to normalize policy sooner than previously thought.
• ECB Vasle (Slovenia) reiterated Council view of continued need highly accomodative monetary policy. New waves of pandemic might slow recovery.
• ECB's Enria (SSM chief) stated that saw signs that the deterioration of asset quality caused by the pandemic had yet to peak.
• Russia govt official stated that could reduce planned 2021 borrowings due to higher revenues.
• Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Gov Kavcioglu reiterated view that transitory CPI levels to dissipate and would take steps for stronger TRY currency (Lira). Current policy stance was tight enough to lower inflation in Q4.
• BOJ Gov Kuroda stated that easing to continue after pandemic.
• China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin stated that might release the foreign investment negative list by end-2021.
• China State Planner (NDRC) reiterated pledge to promote steady investment growth.
• US Pacific fleet stated that the carrier strike group entered the South China Sea.

Currencies/Fixed income

• USD rebounded as higher Treasury yields and continued taper talk from hawkish Fed members.
• EUR/USD moved to 1-week lows at 1.1820 as markets awaited the ECB rate decision on Thursday.
• European yields have moved higher during the week as dealers noted that evidence was mounting that the Euro Zone economy would recover more quickly from the pandemic than previously thought. Some hawkish ECB speak failed to provide any redemption for the Euro ahead of Thursday’s policy decision.

Economic data

• (SE) Sweden July Maklarstatistik Housing Prices Y/Y: 16% v 18% prior; Apartment Prices Y/Y: 10% v 12% prior.
• (FR) France Q2 Final Private Sector Payrolls Q/Q: 1.4% v 1.2%e; Total Payrolls: 1.1% v 1.0%e.
• (DK) Denmark July Current Account Balance (DKK): 16.6B v 20.1B prior; Trade Balance: B v 6.7B prior.
• (FR) France July Trade Balance: -€7.0B v -€6.2Be; Current Account Balance: -€3.5B v -€0.9B prior.
• (ES) Spain Q2 INE House Price Index Q/Q: 2.4% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.3% v 0.9% prior.
• (HU) Hungary Aug CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.9% v 4.7%e (5th month above target range).
• (HU) Hungary July Preliminary Trade Balance: -€0.2B v €0.6B prior.
• (SE) Sweden July GDP Indicator M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 7.8% v 10.5% prior.
• (SE) Sweden Private Sector Production M/M: % v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: % v 10.7% prior.
• (SE) Sweden July Industrial Orders M/M: -1.4% v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 13.5% v 22.3% prior.
• (SE) Sweden July Industry Production Value Y/Y: 13.3% v 15.5% prior; Service Production Value Y/Y: 10.0% v 10.4% prior.
• (SE) Sweden July Household Consumption M/M: 0.7% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.4% v 7.8% prior.
• (IT) Italy July Retail Sales M/M: -0.4% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 6.7% v 4.9%e.
• (CZ) Czech Aug International Reserves: $170.6B v $167.8B prior.
• (HU) Hungary Aug YTD Budget Balance (HUF): -1.9001T v -1.804T prior.

Fixed income issuance

• (IN) India sells total INR170B vs. INR170B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.
• (SI) Slovenia Debt Agency opened book to sell EUR-denominated Feb 2031 bond; guidance seen +8bps to mid-swaps.
• (DK) Denmark sold total DKK1.56B in 3-month, 6-month, 9-month and 12-month bills.
• (NO) Norway sold NOK2.0B vs. NOK2.0B indicated in 3% Mar 2024 bonds; Avg Yield: 0.85% v 0.72% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.78x v 1.74x prior.
• (SE) Sweden sold total SEK3.5B vs. SEK3.5B indicated in 2023 and 2032 bonds.
• (UK) DMO sold £1.0B in 0.125% Aug 2031 Inflation-linked Gilts (UKei); Real Yield: -3.009% v -2.687% prior, bid-to-cover: 2.33x v 2.77x prior.

Looking ahead

• (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision (no set time).
• 05:15 (CH) Switzerland to sell 2025, 2032 and 2045 Bonds.
• 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
• 05:30(DE) Germany to sell €3.5B in 0.0% Aug 2031 green Bunds.
• 05:30 (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) to sell €625M in 12-month Bills.
• 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of next bond auction (held on Tuesdays.
• 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Q3 BER Business Confidence: 49e v 50 prior.
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.
• 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell 2032 and 2036 OFZ Bonds.
• 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Sept 3rd: No est v -2.4% prior.
• 07:00 (CL) Chile Aug CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 4.7%e v 4.5% prior.
• 07:00 (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 0.1%e v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 28.4%e v 33.4% prior.
• 07:00 (UK) Weekly PM Question time in House.
• 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (MNB) Aug Minutes.
• 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
• 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data.
• 09:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.147B in APF Gilt purchase operation (7-20 years).
• 10:00 (US) July JOLTS Job Openings: 10.049Me v 10.073M prior.
• 10:00 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 0.25%.
• 10:00 (CA) Canada Aug Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (seasonally adj): No est v 56.4 prior; PMI (unadj): No est v 59.8 prior.
• 11:00 (UK) BOE Gov Bailey with members Braodbent, Ramsden, Tenreyro and Hall.
• 12:00 (RU) Russia Aug CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.7%e v 6.5% prior.
• 12:00 (RU) Russia Aug CPI Core M/M: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 6.9%e v 6.8% prior.
• 13:00 (US) Fed’s Williams.
• 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 10-Year Notes.
• 14:00 (US) Federal Reserve Beige Book.
• 15:00 (US) July Consumer Credit: $25.0Be v $37.7B prior.
• 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories.
• (CO) Colombia Aug Consumer Confidence Index: No est v -7.5 prior.
• 18:00 (NZ) New Zealand Aug Heavy Truckometer M/M: No est v -1.1% prior.
• 18:00 (US) Fed’s Kaplan.
• 18:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q2 Manufacturing Activity Q/Q: No est v 2.1% prior.
• 19:01 (UK) Aug RICS House Price Balance: 75%e v 79% prior.
• 19:50 (JP) Japan Aug M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.6%e v 5.2% prior; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.1%e v 4.6% prior.
• 21:00 (PH) Philippines July Trade Balance: -$3.0Be v -$2.8B prior; Exports Y/Y: 15.6%e v 17.6% prior; Imports Y/Y: 21.7%e v 34.2% prior.
• 21:30 (CN) China Aug CPI Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.0% prior; PPI Y/Y: 9.0%e v 9.0% prior.
• 22:00 (JP) Japan Aug Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies: No est v 6.28 prior.
• 23:00 (TH) Thailand Aug Consumer Confidence: No est v 40.9 prior; Economic Confidence: No est v 35.3 prior.
• 23:30 (JP) Japan to sell 6-Month Bills.
• 23:35 (JP) Japan to sell 5-Year JGB Bonds.

The USD strengthened against its counterparts yesterday breaking its downward motion since the 20th of August, getting a boost from rising US yields as well as a weakening EUR ahead of the ECB’s interest rate decision due out tomorrow. The USD tended to weaken in the past 2 ½ weeks which was allowed to continue as speculation for the Fed delaying a possible tapering of its QE program intensified after the release of a weak NFP figure for August last week, which took markets by surprise. Also, the surging covid related deaths in the US may provide additional reasons for the Fed to consider a postponement of the tapering and US President Biden is expected to address the issue on Thursday. Today we expect traders, attention to turn to the speeches of New York Fed President Williams as well as Dallas Fed President Kaplan later on and as for financial data we note the release of the JOLTS job openings for July.

The USD Index rose yesterday breaking the 92.30 (S1) resistance line, now turned to resistance. The index in its upward movement also broke the downward trendline characterizing its movement since the 20th of August, hence we switch our bearish outlook in favor of a bullish one, given also that the RSI indicator below the index’s 4-hour chart is above the reading of 50 implying a slight advantage for the bulls. Should the dollar remain in high demand, we may see the Index breaking the 92.75 (R1) resistance line and take aim for the 93.20 (R2) resistance level. On the other hand, should a selling interest be displayed by the market, we mays see the index reversing course and breaking the 92.30 (S1) support line, aiming for the 91.75 (S2) level.

BoC interest rate decision due out

Today in the American session CAD traders are expected to focus on BoC’s interest rate decision release and the bank is widely expected to remain on hold keeping rates unchanged at 0.25%, and currently CAD OIS imply that the market has fully priced in such a scenario to materialize currently. The recent GDP release for Q2, took CAD traders by surprise as the rate instead of slowing down yet remaining in the positives as expected, showed a contraction of the Canadian economy. The release practically threatens the target of a 6% growth rate for the year and given also the uncertainty still ahead of the coronavirus Delta variant as well as the Canadian elections on the 20th of September, we may see the bank stop leaning on the hawkish side and adopt a more cautious tone. In the same sense it may be more plausible for the bank to maintain its current QE program intact and refrain from any tapering for now. Should the bank actually maintain a dovish tone we may see the CAD weakening and vice versa.

USD/CAD rose yesterday yet seems to find resistance at the 1.2650 (R1) level. Nevertheless, we tend to maintain the view that the pair may be about to abandon its sideways movement for an upward movement, given also that the RSI indicator below our 4-hour chart is near the reading of 70, confirming buyers’ extensive interest. Please note though that also a lot regarding the pairs’ direction, is still dependent from BoC’s interest rate decision later today. Should the bulls actually take charge of the pair’s direction, we may see USD/CAD breaking the 1.2625 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.2785 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take over, we may see the pair reversing course once again aiming if not breaking the 1.2495 (S1) support line.

Other economic highlights today and the following Asian session:

Today, in the American session we note from the US the JOLTS Job openings for July and from Canada besides BoC’s interest rate decision also the release of the Ivey PMI for August, which more likely is to be overshadowed by BoC. Just before the Asian session starts, we get from the US the API weekly crude oil inventories figure and later on, China’s inflationary measures for August.

USD Index H4 Chart

Support: 92.30 (S1), 91.75 (S2), 91.30 (S3)

Resistance: 92.75 (R1), 93.20 (R2), 93.70 (R3)

USD/CAD H4 Chart

Support: 1.2495 (S1), 1.2375 (S2), 1.2270 (S3)

Resistance: 1.2650 (R1), 1.2785 (R2), 1.2920 (R3)

In an interview by Nikkei, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, "we will continue with our current monetary easing to support corporate funding, and stand ready to take additional easing measures without hesitation as needed." He added that there is no plan to end the asset purchases or begin selling its holdings.

Most candidates in the race to replace Yoshihide Suga as LDP leader and Prime Minister are pushing for another big pandemic relief package. Kuroda said, "even if fiscal policy becomes more aggressive, interest rates will remain low and help enhance the effect of fiscal policy."

"Even if fiscal policy becomes more aggressive, interest rates will remain low and help enhance the effect of fiscal policy," he added.

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1867
Prev Close: 1.1842
% chg. over the last day: -0.21%

The Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment decreased to 26.5 from 40.4. ZEW Economic Sentiment for the Eurozone is also negative – 31.1 (previous – 42.7). All this suggests that the pace of economic recovery in Europe is slowing down. Investors shouldn’t also forget about the high inflation rate, so a lot will depend on the ECB meeting tomorrow.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1816, 1.1799, 1.1759, 1.1704, 1.1620
Resistance levels: 1.1854, 1.1894, 1.1934, 1.1969

From a technical point of view, the general trend of the EUR/USD currency pair is bullish, but there is also a corrective downward movement observed on the hourly time frame. The MACD indicator became negative. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell trades from the resistance levels, where sellers show initiative. Buy trades can be considered from the support levels near the moving average.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.1704 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will likely be broken.

News feed for 2021.09.08:

• US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• US FOMC Member Williams’s Speech at 20:10 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3827
Prev Close: 1.3782
% chg. over the last day: -0.32%

The UK government plans to increase the National Insurance Tax to pay for social and health care services. A growing number of business groups and analytical centers oppose this decision since, due to labor shortages, such a move threatens to ruin the possibilities for economic recovery.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3741, 1.3692, 1.3632, 1.3614, 1.3525
Resistance levels: 1.3793, 1.3886, 1.3935, 1.4002

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bullish, but the beginning of a corrective downward movement is observed. The MACD indicator became negative. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels. Sell positions can only be considered with short targets from the resistance levels, where sellers show initiative throughout the day.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.3692 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.09.08:

• UK Inflation Report Hearings at 18:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 109.82
Prev Close: 110.28
% chg. over the last day: +0.42%

The USD/JPY currency pair is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index now. The dollar index strengthened yesterday, which led to an increase in the USD/JPY quotes. Japan's GDP increased by 1.9% in annual terms thanks to solid capital spending and high production volumes, which compensated for weak activity in the service sector.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 110.26, 110.11, 109.88, 109.43, 109.19, 108.65
Resistance levels: 110.66, 110.95, 111.48

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price is now trading in a wide corridor and broke through an important resistance level. The MACD indicator has become positive. Under such market conditions, traders should look for buy trades from the support level, where buyers show initiative. Sell positions should be considered from the positions where sellers show initiative on the lower time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.43, the uptrend is likely to be broken

News feed for 2021.09.08:

• Japan GDP (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2529
Prev Close: 1.2645
% chg. over the last day: +0.92%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. Yesterday, the dollar index strengthened while oil prices remained at the same level. As a result, the USD/CAD currency pair has significantly strengthened. Today, a lot of macro statistical data are expected to be released in Canada, including an interest rate decision and an accompanying monetary policy statement from the Bank of Canada.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2583, 1.2518, 1.2425
Resistance levels: 1.2656, 1.2713, 1.2812, 1.2891, 1.2951

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. But the price is now in a local correctional upward movement. It is better to consider sell positions from the resistance levels, where sellers show initiative. Buy positions can be considered with short targets from the support levels, where buyers show initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2812 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.09.08:

• Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• Canada BOC Press Conference at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

Gold is currently moving down. I had a perfect sell from the top which is running in profits.

As the price is breaking below the MAs and 78.6 fibonacci we could see a support. If you see the daily chart, you might notice a potential head and shoulders emerging pattern. Watch for a rejection at the blue level 1788. If the market doesn’t hold 1788 then get ready for 1750.