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As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 27, NET SHORT of USD index futures rose +4 353 contracts to 16 541. Speculative long positions added +2 976 contracts while shorts decreased -1 377 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures sank -7 696 contracts to 38 126. GBP futures' NET SHORT gained +2 187 contracts to 5 684. British pound's rebound signals that its net shorts would likely trim.

On safe-haven currencies, NET LENGTH of CHF futures added +447 contracts to 8 489 while NET SHORT of JPY futures rose +4 203 contracts to 59 934. Concerning commodity currencies, NET SHORT of AUD futures increased +3 657 contracts to 39 347. Separately, NZD futures’ NET LENGTH slipped -1 635 contracts to 1 421. NET LENGTH of CAD futures slumped -7 541 contracts to 5 374 during the week.

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 27. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures added +1 024 contracts to 449 764 for the week. Speculative long position gained +8 365 contracts, while shorts increased +7 341 contracts. Bets on higher and lower crude oil prices were largely balanced as the front-month WTI contract continued hovering at highest since October 2018. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for heating oil added gained +2 646 contracts to 26 895, while that for gasoline rose +7 014 contracts to 36 351. NET SHORT of natural gas futures jumped +10 216 contracts to 137 758 during the week. Gold futures’ NET LENGTH gained +3 416 contracts to 199 388 while silver futures’ NET LENGTH declined -6 258 contracts to 31 217. For PGMs, NET LENGTH of Nymex platinum futures dropped -318 contracts to 11 795 while that for palladium dropped -1 08 contracts to 1 175.

EUR/USD rebounded to 1.1907 last week but failed to extend gain and retreated form there. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Current development argues that a short term bottom is formed at 1.1751. Above 1.1907 will target 1.1974 resistance first. Firm break there should argue that whole corrective pattern from 1.2348 has completed. On the downside, however, break of 1.1751 will resume the fall from 1.2265 to 1.1703 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

In the long term picture, focus remains on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above. However, rejection by 1.2555 will keep medium term outlook neutral first, and raise the prospect of down trend resumption at a later stage.

USD/JPY stays in range of 109.05/110/58 last week. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 109.05 will resume the decline from 111.65. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18. On the upside, break of 110.58 will resume the rebound from 109.05, for retesting 111.65 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. For now, outlook won't turn bullish as long as 111.71 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

GBP/USD rose to as high as 1.3982 last week, but formed a temporary top there and retreated. The break of 1.3908 resistance suggests that consolidation pattern from 1.4240 has completed with three waves down to 1.3570. Further rise is expected as long as 1.3766 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.3982 will resume the rise from 1.3570 to retest 1.4248 high. However, break of 1.3766 support will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of 1.3570.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3482 resistance turned support holds, up trend from 1.1409 should still continue. Decisive break of 1.4376 resistance will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.3482 support will argue that the rise from 1.1409 has completed. GBP/USD would then be seen in another leg of long term range pattern between 1.1409 and 1.4376. Deeper fall could then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.2493, and even below.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.1409, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from there would target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Reaction from there would reveal whether rise from 1.1409 is just a correction, or developing into a long term up trend.

USD/CHF's fall from 0.9273 resumed last week and reached as low as 0.9037. The development also affirm that rebound form 0.8925 has completed. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 0.8925 support. On the upside, above 0.9116 support turned resistance will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, failure to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 0..9183) affirms medium term bearish in USD/CHF. Break of 0.8925 support should resume the whole decline form 1.0342 (2016 high) through 0.8756 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9273 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

AUD/USD stayed in consolidation from 0.7288 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7442 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.7288 will resume the whole decline from 0.8006 and target 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next. On the upside, break of 0.7443 will bring stronger rebound to 0.7530 support turned resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could have completed at 0.8006, after failing 0.8135 key resistance. Correction from there could target 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051). We'd look for strong support from there to bring rebound. However, sustained break of this level would argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.5506 could have completed at 0.8006. But subsequent fall is now seen as a correction only. As long as 0.6991 structural support holds, we'd expect another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 0.6991 would argue that the trend has reversed and put 0.5506 low back into radar.

USD/CAD's fall from 1.2805 extended to as low as 1.2421 last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.2301 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.2805 at 1.2311). On the upside, break of 1.2605 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall. Otherwise, deeper decline will remain in favor in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

In the longer term picture, we're viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, sustained break of 1.2061 will be a sign of long term bearishness. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.

GBP/JPY rose further to as high as 153.42 last week but retreated ahead of 153.46 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. We're favoring that case that corrective fall from 156.05 has completed at 148.43. Break of 153.46 will resume the rise to retest 156.05 high. Though, break of 151.55 minor support will dampen this bullish view, and turn bias to the downside for 148.43 support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). Focus remains on 156.59 resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 at 167.93. On the downside, sustained break of 149.03 support, however, will argue that rise from 123.94 has completed. Further break of 142.71 would open up the bearish case for retesting 122.75 low.

In the longer term picture, the strong break of 55 months EMA was an early sign of long term bullish reversal. Firm break of 156.69 resistance should now confirm the start of an up trend for 195.86 (2015 high).