Sample Category Title

GBPUSD: ⬇️ Sell

• GBPUSD reversed from the resistance level 1.3615
•  Likely to fall to support level at 1.3400

GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1.3615 (which has been reversing the price from the end of May) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.3615 formed the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Dark Cloud Cover – which was followed by the Shooting Star.

Given the bearish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level at 1.3400 (former resistance from April).

GBPJPY: ⬇️ Sell

• GBPJPY reversed from the resistance area
• Likely to fall to support level 193.65

GBPJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance area between the pivotal resistance level 196.00 (which has been reversing the price from March) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from this resistance zone will most likely form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing – if the price closes today near the current levels.

Given the overbought daily Stochastic, the GBPJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level at 193.65 (the low of the previous minor correction ii).

WTI crude oil: ⬆️ Buy

• WTI crude oil reversed from round support level 70.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 78.00

WTI crude oil recently reversed from the round support level 70.00 coinciding with the upper trendline of the recently broken up channel from May.

The downward reversal from the support level 70.00 formed the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – which increases the probability WTI will continue to rise in the active impulse wave C.

Given the strength of the active impulse wave C, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 78.00 (target for the completion of wave (4), which reversed the price in January).

Markets

US headline retail sales dropped for a second consecutive month. May sales fell by 0.9% M/M while consensus expected a more modest contraction of 0.6%. Seven out of thirteen sales categories posted declines. For the likes of building materials (-2.7% M/M), gasoline (-2% M/M) and motor vehicles (-3.5% M/M), it’s a reversal of anticipation buying we’ve seen in March in the run-up to “Liberation Day”. But spending in the only service-sector category (restaurants & bars) also fell and even at the most rapid pace in slightly over two years’ time (-0.9% M/M). The upside of today’s report was that the above-mentioned categories don’t feed into the government’s calculation of goods spending for GDP. The so-called retail sales control group (sporting goods, furniture, apparel,…) showed a stronger-than-expected 0.4% M/M increase in spending in May and with an upward revision to April’s figure (-0.1% M/M from -0.2% M/M). US Treasuries were slightly better bid in the run-up to today’s numbers and spiked higher immediately after the release. The move lacked follow-up buying and even made them change course because of the more constructive underlying numbers. Today’s retail sales were final input for tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and strengthen the US central bank’s firm position of prioritizing (upside) inflation (risks) over (downside) employment/growth (risks), much to the dislike of US President Trump who’ll be firing new shots at “Mr. Late”. As firing Fed Chair Powell ahead of the end of his term (May 2026) is excluded, some rumours suggest a (very early) nomination of his successor who could via the principle of forward guidance potentially influence markets as a “shadow Fed chair”. Daily changes on the US yield curve currently range between -1 bp and -3 bps in a gentle bull flattening move. Intraday volatility in the dollar was smaller than in the Treasury market with EUR/USD a tad softer at 1.1550 compared with 1.1570 ahead of retail sales. The European eco agenda was light with only stronger than hoped German ZEW investor sentiment (June: expectations component 47.5 from 25.2; third best since early 2022). The build-up to fiscal support (first specific initiatives expected June 24) outweighs the lingering trade war. Changes on the German curve are negligible today with a minor outperformance at the very long end. Oil prices (Brent $75/b from $73) and risk sentiment (stock markets down 0.5% to 1%) are effected by lingering uncertainty over the next step in the Israeli-Iranian conflict (diplomacy and nuclear talks? Expanded Israeli air campaigns? Iranian escalation via street of Hormuz? US involvement?)

News & Views

The Swedish National Institute of Economic Research (NIER), a government agency, today published its quarterly economic forecast. NIER downwardly revised its 2025 Swedish growth forecast by 0.8% to 0.9%. The downward revision is partly due to a lower estimate of 2024 growth, but also reflects a significantly worse than expected performance in Q1. Especially gross fixed capital formation fell substantially in Q1, leading to an overall negative forecast for 2025. Household consumption growth (1% from 1.2%) and government consumption was also downwardly revised. Still, the economy is expected to recover in H2. After a period of spending reluctance, households are starting from a position of high savings, and with real disposable incomes rising rapidly, household consumption is expected to be a strong driver of the recovery. Growth for 2026 was slightly reduced to 2.7% from 2.9%. NIER also downwardly revised its CPI and CPIF inflation forecasts for this and next year (CPIF 2025 from 2.4% to 2.5%; 2026 from 1.7% to 1.5%). Part of this revision was due to a stronger krone. NIER expects this to allow the Riksbank (RB) to cut its policy rate to 1.75% still this year. The RB as has a regular policy meeting on Thursday. The majority of the market expects a 25 bps cut to 2%.

The Hungarian Statistical Office reported that full time employees average gross earnings in April were 9.8% higher than in the same month last year (HUF 708 000). Taking into account a 4.2% rise in CPI consumer price inflation in April, real earning were up 5.2%. Net wages at HUF 486 500 were 9.6% higher Y/Y. The rise in gross wages was substantially higher than expected (8.9% Y/Y). Ongoing high (real) wages and its potential impact on services inflation are factors of importance for monetary policy as the MNB still struggles to return inflation within the 3% +/- 1% inflation target band. The MNB recently held the line of communication that a patient and carful approach to monetary policy remains warranted, maintaining tight monetary conditions (policy rate 6.5%).

Bitcoin has failed to capitalise on the latest rise in risk appetite in financial markets. The ratio of US stocks to US Treasury bonds has reached its highest level since Donald Trump’s inauguration. The S&P 500 rose on reports that Iran is seeking ways to resume nuclear talks with the United States. Investors believe that the worst of the conflict in the Middle East is behind us and will end soon.

The crypto market leader seems to be stuck between two worlds. It is not responding to the increase in global risk appetite, but it is not growing like safe-haven assets against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin and gold have a lot in common: their supply is limited in nature, and they cannot be destroyed. Tokens are easier to transfer or hide than precious metals. As a result, digital assets are sometimes used as a safe haven, especially in cases where confidence in fiat currencies is undermined.

It is the weakness of the US dollar in 2025 that is one of the key drivers of the 13% rally in Bitcoin since the beginning of the year. If the USD index continues to fall due to the White House’s tariff policy, Bitcoin will grow.

Meanwhile, Michael Saylor’s Strategy continues to buy up Bitcoin. Another $1 billion has been invested in the cryptocurrency, increasing its reserves to $63.4 billion. Specialised exchange-traded funds are not far behind. The largest ETF, iShares Bitcoin Trust, attracted $12.5 billion in 2025, increasing its reserves to $70 billion. Growing demand from institutional investors is supporting Bitcoin.

Perhaps the markets are overly optimistic about the armed conflict in the Middle East. Israel intends to fight to the bitter end, and the United States is not asking it to stop. As the conflict drags on, global risk appetite will decline, which will be bad news for both US stock indices and Bitcoin. On the contrary, the sooner the mutual attacks between Tehran and Jerusalem come to an end, the higher the chances of a recovery in the coin’s upward trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1517; (P) 1.1566; (R1) 1.1608; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidations continues below 1.1630 temporary top. With 1.1372 support intact, further rally is expected. Break of 1.1572 will extend the rise from 1.0176. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. However, break of 1.1372 support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8103; (P) 0.8125; (R1) 0.8161; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 0.8247 resistance will argue that corrective pattern from 0.8038 is starting the third leg. Bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.8475 resistance again. However, firm break of 0.8038 will resume larger down trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8656) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.00; (P) 144.44; (R1) 145.23; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 142.10 support will resume the fall from 148.64 to retest 139.87 low. On the upside, above 145.46 will turn bias to the upside for 146.27 first. Firm break there will target 148.64 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Retail and food services sales declined in May, falling by 0.9% month-on-month (m/m). The headline sales were dragged lower by a drop in motor vehicle and parts sales (-3.5% m/m). April's figures were also revised lower from a 0.1% gain to -0.1% decline.

Sales at gasoline stations were lower on the month, declining for the fourth consecutive month (-2.0% m/m) due to lower prices at the pump. Sales of building materials and equipment stores have also pulled back (-2.7% m/m), following two months of gains ahead of the tariffs.

Sales in the "control group", which excludes the three volatile components mentioned above (i.e., autos, gasoline and building supplies) edged slightly lower (-0.1% m/m). Sales were mixed across most of the remaining categories. Sales pulled back at electronics and appliance stores as tariff front-loading on these goods normalized. However, there were some good gains in other categories, led by miscellaneous stores retailers (+2.9% m/m), sporting goods and book stores (+1.3% m/m) and clothing stores (+0.8% m/m).

Sales at bars and restaurants – the only service category in the report – declined by 0.9% m/m, but this comes on the heels of two months of strong gains.

Key Implications

A flurry of activity in anticipation of tariffs boosted consumer spending earlier this year, but that momentum is now looking to have run its course, with retail sales declining in both April and May. Car sales came back to earth in May, following outsized gains in the prior two months as consumers rushed to replace their vehicles ahead of the tariffs. The same is also true for purchases of building materials, electronics and appliances. Consumers have shown more caution recently, with saving rate moving higher in April - potentially signalling rising precautionary savings. A pullback in spending on dining out, which also eased in May, may further suggest that consumers' willingness to spend on discretionary items might be waning.

Despite the heightened policy uncertainty, key consumer fundamentals, such as the labor market, have shown more resilience than previously expected. The same is true for inflation, which has continued to cool on trend through most of this year. However, we anticipate job growth to slow in the coming months, while inflation is likely to turn higher as higher prices of goods are likely to more than offset the cooling in services inflation. Taken together, we expect that these forces will meaningfully slow consumer spending through the second half of this year.