Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7674; (P) 1.7716; (R1) 1.7767; More...

No change in EUR/AUD's outlook. Intraday bias stays neutral for consolidations below 1.7880 and further rally is expected with 1.7459 support intact. Above 1.7880 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.7245 at 1.8054. Firm break there will pave the way to 1.8554. However, break of 1.7459 will dampen this bullish view and bring deeper decline back to 1.7245 low.

In the bigger picture, with 55 W MACD staying well below signal line, 1.8554 is likely a medium term top already. Price actions from there are seen as a corrective pattern only. While deeper pullback might be seen, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Up trend from 1.4281 is still expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9350; (P) 0.9384; (R1) 0.9409; More....

EUR/CHF is still bounded in range trading and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 0.9428 will resume the rebound from 0.9218 through 0.9445 resistance. However, break of 0.9291 will bring retest of 0.9218 instead.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9527) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3593; (P) 1.3644; (R1) 1.3730; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral first with current recovery and some consolidations would be seen above 1.3538 temporary low. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3749 support turned resistance holds. Below 1.3538 will extend larger fall from 1.4791 to 100% projection of 1.4414 to 1.3749 from 1.4014 at 1.3349. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.3749 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back to 1.4014 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6447; (P) 0.6495; (R1) 0.6525; More...

AUD/USD retreated once again after edging higher to 0.6551. Intraday bias is turned neutral. On the downside, break of 0.6455 support will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6425) and below. Nevertheless, above 0.6651 will extend the rally from 0.5913 towards 0.6713 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is still struggling to sustain above 55 W EMA (now at 0.6443) cleanly, and outlook is mixed. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA will indicate that rise from 0.5913 is at least correcting the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high), with risk of trend reversal. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713. However, rejection by 55 W EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.5913 at a later stage.

The USD/JPY pair stabilised at 145.11 following three consecutive days of gains.

The Japanese yen had previously faced downward pressure due to a combination of factors, including weak macroeconomic data. Japan’s exports declined for the first time in eight months, indicating that the impact of US tariffs is now being felt. Meanwhile, imports fell more sharply than anticipated, heightening concerns over weakening external demand.

Other indicators painted a similarly bleak picture. Machinery orders dropped significantly in April, while industrial sentiment deteriorated in June. These developments suggest that signs of softening domestic demand are increasingly apparent.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held a meeting the previous day, leaving interest rates unchanged and reaffirming its cautious approach to reducing balance sheet assets. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasised that the central bank is closely monitoring economic conditions and global trade dynamics, leaving open the possibility of future rate hikes.

Additional pressure on the yen came from the lack of progress at the G7 summit in Canada, where Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and US President Donald Trump failed to reach an agreement on tariff cooperation.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

The market has completed an upward wave to the upper boundary of the consolidation range at 145.43. Having reached this target, a decline towards 144.00 is now anticipated. A break below this level could open the door for a further drop towards 142.20, with the potential to extend the downtrend to 140.50. Conversely, an upward move would raise the likelihood of a rally towards 146.98. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero and has exited the histogram area. A downward correction with new lows on the indicator is likely to follow.

H1 Chart:

The market is forming a bearish wave structure targeting 144.00, which is likely to be reached today. Following this, a corrective rebound towards 144.80 may occur. Overall, price action continues to develop within a broad consolidation range at these levels. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line positioned below 20 and pointing sharply downward.

Conclusion

While the yen’s decline has paused, domestic economic signals remain unfavourable. With weak trade data, cautious BoJ policy, and stalled international negotiations, the currency faces ongoing headwinds. Technically, the USD/JPY pair shows potential for further downside, though a corrective rebound cannot be ruled out.

The British pound has stabilized on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3551, up 0.28% on the day. The US dollar showed broad strength on Tuesday and GBP/USD declined 1.05% and fell to a three-week low.

UK inflation ticks lower to 3.4%

UK inflation for May edged lower to 3.4% y/y, down from 3.5% in April and matching the market estimate. The driver behind the deceleration was lower airline prices and petrol prices. Services inflation, which has been persistently high, eased to 4.7% from 5.4%. Monthly, CPI gained 0.2%, much lower than the 1.2% gain in April and matching the market estimate.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, fell to 3.5% in May, down from 3.8% a month earlier and below the market estimate of 3.6%. Monthly, the core rate rose 0.2%, sharply lower than the 1.4% spike in April and in line with the market estimate. This marked the lowest monthly increase in four months.

The Bank of England will be pleased that core CPI moved lower but the inflation numbers are still too high for its liking. Headline CPI had been below 3% for a year but has jumped well above 3% in the past two months.

BoE policymakers won't have much time to digest today's inflation report as the central bank makes its rate announcement on Thursday. The markets are widely expecting the BoE to maintain the cash rate at 4.25%,

Investors will be keeping a close eye on the meeting, looking for hints of a rate cut later in the year. The UK economy contracted in April and with wages falling and unemployment rising, there is pressure for the BoE to lower rates, but that is risky with inflation well above the BoE's 2% inflation target.

US retail sales sink

US retail sales slumped in May, falling 0.9% m/m. This was well below the revised -0.1% reading in April and worse than the market estimate of -0.7%. Annually, retail sales fell to 3.3%, down sharply from a revised 5.0%.

Consumers are wary about the economy and anxiety over Trump's tariffs has weighed on consumer spending. If additional key US data heads lower, this will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

GBP/USD Technical

• GBP/US is putting pressure on resistance at 1.3480. Above, there is resistance at 1.3545
• 1.3364 and 1.3299 are providing support

GBPUSD 4-hour Chart, June 18, 2025

EUR/USD declined from the 1.1640 resistance and traded below 1.1550. USD/JPY is rising and might gain pace above the 145.50 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline after a strong surge above the 1.1600 zone.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1545 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 144.00 and 145.00 levels.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 144.80 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair rallied above the 1.1600 resistance zone before the bears appeared, as discussed in the previous analysis. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.1550 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair declined below 1.1520 and tested the 1.1475 zone. A low was formed near 1.1475 and the pair started a consolidation phase. There was a minor recovery wave above the 1.1495 level.

The pair tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1614 swing high to the 1.1475 low. EUR/USD is now trading below 1.1550 and the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 1.1505 level.

The next key resistance is at 1.1545 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1614 swing high to the 1.1475 low. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1545.

The main resistance is near the 1.1580 level. A clear move above the 1.1580 level could send the pair toward the 1.1615 resistance. An upside break above 1.1615 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1650.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.1475. The next key support is at 1.1450. If there is a downside break below 1.1450, the pair could drop toward 1.1400. The next support is near 1.1350, below which the pair could start a major decline.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh upward move from the 142.80 zone. The US Dollar gained bullish momentum above 143.40 against the Japanese Yen.

It even cleared the 50-hour simple moving average and 144.00. The pair climbed above 145.00 and traded as high as 145.43 before there was a downside correction. It is now moving lower toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 142.79 swing low to the 145.40 high.

The current price action above the 144.50 level is positive. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 144.80. Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near 145.40.

The first major resistance is near 146.20. If there is a close above the 146.20 level and the RSI moves above 60, the pair could rise toward 147.50. The next major resistance is near 148.00, above which the pair could test 148.80 in the coming days.

On the downside, the first major support is 144.80 and the trend line. The next major support is visible near the 144.40 level. If there is a close below 144.40, the pair could decline steadily.

In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 143.40 support zone and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 142.79 swing low to the 145.40 high. The next stop for the bears may perhaps be near the 142.80 region.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1443; (P) 1.1512; (R1) 1.1548; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. With 1.1372 support intact, further rally is expected. Break of 1.1572 will extend the rise from 1.0176. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. However, break of 1.1372 support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8133; (P) 0.8153; (R1) 0.8184; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 0.8247 resistance will argue that corrective pattern from 0.8038 is starting the third leg. Bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.8475 resistance again. However, firm break of 0.8038 will resume larger down trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8656) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.67; (P) 145.02; (R1) 145.65; More...

While USD/JPY's rebound from 142.79 extended higher, upside is capped by 145.46 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 142.10 support will resume the fall from 148.64 to retest 139.87 low. On the upside, above 145.46 will turn bias to the upside for 146.27 first. Firm break there will target 148.64 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.