Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3169; (P) 1.3233; (R1) 1.3335; More…
GBP/USD’s sharp fall and break of 1.3096 minor support argues that rebound from 1.2661 might be completed at 1.3297 already. That was accompanied by rejection from 1.3316 key fibonacci resistance and is in line with our original view. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.2784 support first. Break there will likely resume larger decline from 1.4376.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4062). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
