Stocks Start the Month Strong, But No Downside Breakout in Dollar Yet
Yen and Dollar are generally softer today as markets open December on firm footing. Australia Dollar is following as third weakest as diplomatic tension with China worsens. On the other hand, Euro is leading Swiss Franc higher. Manufacturing data from China and UK indicate sustainable recovery for now, while...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – US Dollar on Defensive as Risk Appetite Improved
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 24, NET SHORT of USD Index futures added +1 780 contracts to 2 754. Speculative long positions increased +107 contracts and short positions gained +1 887 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Stronger Crude Oil Price as Vaccine News Lifted Sentiment
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 24, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures soared +41 828 contracts to 522 39 for the week. Speculative long position gained +34 912 contracts, while shorts fell -6 916 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
RBA Remains Cautiously Optimistic with Better-than-Expected Recovery, Pledged to Do More if Needed
As widely expected RBA left all the monetary policy measures unchanged in December. While acknowledging the “better-than-expected” economic recovery, the members reiterated that the outlook remains dependent on policy support.
On economic developments, the central bank noted that “the economic recovery is under way and recent data have generally been...
Loonie and Sterling Firmer in Dull Month-End Trading
Overall, the markets are relative quite today, in month end trading. Stocks are struggling in tight range, indifferent to news of Modern's plan to see US and EU clearance for their vaccine. In the currency markets, Sterling is currently the strongest one, awaiting news on Brexit trade talks. Canadian...
RBA Preview: Cautiously Optimistic over Recovery; QE Expected to Increase Further in 2021
After some big moves in November, we believe the RBA will stay put at this week’s meeting. Given the good news about vaccine and the steady decline in the country’s coronavirus cases and, we do not feel surprise if the members turn more upbeat this month.
Economic data released since...
Gold Selloff Resumes, Markets Shrug Solid Data from Japan, China and New Zealand
Asian markets are generally mixed despite some solid data from Japan, China and New Zealand. Yen is lifted mildly by the relatively optimistic economic outlook. Sterling is also slightly firmer after UK Foreign Minister Dominic Raab indicated Brexit negotiations are "down to really two basic issues" only. Dollar, Canadian...
Nikkei Shone in Global Stock Rally, Sterling Tumbled on Brexit Uncertainty
Vaccine optimism pushed global stocks higher last week, with Nikkei completing the most impressive rally. Commodity currencies ended generally higher as led by New Zealand Dollar. Yen and Dollar ended as the worst performing ones. Though, no key levels were taken out, except in NZD/USD and NZD/JPY. Dollar index...
Sterling Weighed Down by Same Old Brexit Concerns, as UK-EU Divergences Remain
Sterling turns generally lower in quiet holiday-mood trading today. Sellers are back in control as there appears to be no path out of the Brexit trade talk deadlocks yet. And, time is running out clearly. Overall, Yen and Dollar remain the worst performing ones of the week, on general...
Yen Recovers in Subdued Trading, Gold Consolidates Losses in Tight Range
Trading continues to be subdued in Asia as markets are in holiday mood. Yen is trading mildly higher overall, but remains the worst performing one for the week. Dollar's selloff slowed somewhat, but remains the second worst for the week. Commodity currencies are set to close the week as...
FOMC Minutes: Fed Seriously Considered Adjusting QE
The minutes for the FOMC meeting in November shows that policymakers were cautiously optimistic about the economic recovery and the impacts of the monetary policy tools on the economic outlook. As negative interest rate has been ruled out, the Fed's future policy tool is dependent on asset purchases (QE)....
Dollar and Yen Stay Weak in Quiet Pre-Holiday Trading
Markets are generally rather quiet in Asian session today, with Thanksgiving holiday in the US in sight. Risk markets are taking a breather after the earlier rally, so do the selloffs in Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc. Nevertheless the trio remain the weakest ones for the week. On the...
US Crude Inventory Surprisingly Dropped Last Week
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -1.07 mmb to 1353.84 mmb in the week ended November 20. Crude oil inventory dropped -0.75 mmb (consensus: +0.13 mmb) to 488.72 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 4 out...
Dollar Falling Towards Key Near Term Support Levels after Mixed Data
Dollar's sell-off slowed mildly as stocks turned into consolidation ahead of Thanksgiving holiday in the US. But for now, the greenback remains the second worst performing for the week, just next to Yen, followed by Swiss Franc. Commodity currencies are strongest together with Sterling. Mixed economic data from US...
Questionable OPEC Solidarity Casts Doubt on Output Cut Commitments
While vaccine news should be bullish for the oil market, the rally in crude oil price proves short lived. Ahead of next week’s meeting to decide extension of output cuts, a long-term OPEC member, the UAE, reportedly has shown discontent about the output cut deal. There are rumors that...
Full Risk-On Market With Upside Breakout in DOW and Oil
Markets are in full risk-on mode for now, with DOW closing above 30k handle for the first time overnight. Asian stocks are also generally higher, with strong rally in Nikkei and HSI. WTI oil prices powered through a key near term resistance level while Gold is set to break...
Euro Resilient Despite Deterioration Business Expectations, Dollar Mixed
Commodity currencies remain the strongest one for today with help from risk-on markets. Euro is also firm, shrugging off deterioration in business expectations as indicated by Ifo's data. Though, selling is focusing on Swiss Franc and Sterling for now. Dollar dropped notably earlier today but there is no clear...
NZD Surges on RBNZ Expectations, Dollar Rebound Short-Lived
Commodity currencies surge broadly today on the back of strong risk appetite, especially in Japan. New Zealand Dollar is additionally boosted after the government asked RBNZ to considering surging house prices in monetary policy moves. Dollar tried to rebound overnight, with the help from downside breakout in Gold. The...
British Pound Remains Strong with Possible Trade Deal in Sight
The market has been thrilled amid signs of progress in the EU-UK deal. Last week, EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen noted that there was “more movement” on the negotiations "difficult weeks with very, very slow progress". Yet, she warned that there were "some metres to the finish...
Sterling Accelerates Higher on Vaccine News, Dollar Resumes Selloff
Dollar's selloff resumes today as stocks rallies on more positive news on coronavirus treatment. British drugmaker AstraZeneca said it's vaccine could be around 90% effective, and as many as 200 millions doses could be ready by year end. The news also lifts Sterling to be the best performer so far...