US Crude Oil Inventory Gained for First Time since Mid- June
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks jumped +10.41 mmb to 1308.82 mmb in the week ended August 2. Crude oil inventory gained +2.39 mmb to 438.93 mmb (consensus: -2.85 mmb). Inventories increased in 3 out...
Yen Strengthens Again on Falling Treasury Yields, Swiss Follows
Yen strengthens broadly today, mainly follows decline in major benchmark yields. German 10-year yield hit another record low at -0.597. US 10-year yield also breaks 1.7 handle. Yields are pressured after deeper the surprised -50bps cut by RBNZ and expectation of more global central bank easing. Asian stocks ended...
New Zealand and Australian Dollars in Steep Decline after Surprised RBNZ 50bps Rate Cut
New Zealand Dollar is clearly the worst performing one today as selloff intensifies after RBNZ's surprised -50bps rate cut. Australian Dollar is also dragged down deeply while Canadian Dollar follows as third weakest so far. Asian markets ignore rebound in US stocks overnight and weaken generally. Yen and Swiss...
RBNZ Cut Policy Rate by -50 bps, Hinting Negative Interest Rate
RBNZ surprised the market by reducing the OCR, by -50 bps, to 1%. The market had only anticipated a -25 bps cut. The aggressive rate cut is "necessary" to help support employment and inflation in the country as downside risks are growing. Governor Orr also signaled that negative interests...
Dollar Recovering While Yen Softens as Currency War Fear Recedes Mildly
Market sentiments stabilized with recoveries seen in European stock markets, while US futures also point to a solid rebound. The China's Yuan also pares back some of yesterday's steep losses on rumors that a PBoC official reassured foreign companies that the currency won't continue to weaken significantly. Though, the...
Sentiments Stabilize While US-China Trade War Turns into Currency War
Asian markets tumbled sharply earlier today in response to US designation of China as currency manipulator. USD/CNH also jumped to new high at 7.1399. But China's PBoC appeared to be trying to "smooth" Yuan's decline despite hard line rhetorics elsewhere. Asian stocks quickly pared back much of today's losses....
US’ Designation of China as Currency Manipulator Makes it Harder to Reach Trade Deal
US Treasury Department on Monday labeled as currency manipulator, first time since 1994. Before the announcement, Trump has threatened to label as currency manipulator while the Treasury Department has long placed China in its monitoring list. According to the criteria, set by the Treasury Department in 2015, for a...
RBNZ Preview – Another Rate Cut is Needed to Boost Inflation and Support Employment
We expect RBNZ to cut the OCR, by -25 bps, to 1.25% in August. Given the disappointment in the inter-meeting data flow, the central bank would likely signal further easing later in the year. Meanwhile, the policy statement might focus on the downside risks on domestic economic growth outlook,...
Risk Aversion Dominates Globally as Yuan Fall Drags Sentiments
Global markets are dragged down by the steep decline in the Chinese Yuan today. Major European indices are all in deep red today, following the selloffs in Asia. DOW future is currently down over -1.4% or -370 pts. Treasury yields also suffer with German 10-year yield breaking -0.5 handle...
Free Fall in Chinese Yuan Spills Over to Asian Markets, Yen and Franc Strong
Yen and Swiss Franc extends last week's strong rally as risk aversion dominates Asian markets. A key trigger is the free fall in the Chinese Yuan, which dives through psychologically important 7 level against Dollar, in response to trade war escalations. Major Asian indices are all in deep red...
RBA Preview – Pausing (Not Ending) after Two Consecutive Rate Cuts
Following two consecutive rate cuts, RBA is widely expected to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1% in August. Incoming economic data since the last meeting have also supported the pause. Yet, given the aggressive target in the longer-term unemployment rate, downside risks to growth and ongoing uncertainty in...
Abrupt Trade War Escalation Overshadowed Fed’s Cut, Yen and Franc Jumped
The abrupt escalation of US-China trade war overshadowed Fed's rate cut last week. As the trade talks in Shanghai yielded no constructive result, Trump announced to impose 10% on USD 300B in Chinese imports, effective September 1. The list include practically all untaxed Chinese goods, which should have much...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – All Major Currencies in NET SHORT Positions, Except USD and CAD
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 1, NET LENGTH in USD Index added +1 155 contracts to 30 283. Speculative long positions rose +7 087 contracts while short positions gained +5 932 contracts during the week.Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet on Lower Crude Oil Prices
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 1, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures declined -10 560 contracts to 387 291 for the week. Speculative long positions gained +2 298 contracts and shorts jumped +12 858 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Yen and Franc Strong on Trade War, Dollar Mixed Despite Solid NFP
Swiss Franc and Yen continue to trade as the strongest ones for today on risk aversion, as US-China trade war escalates. Global equity markets are under heavy selling pressure, with DOW futures down around -100 pts. German 10-year yield hits another record low at -0.499 and stays soft. Dollar...
Yen Surges on Risk Aversion as US-China Trade War Escalates
Risk aversion dominates the markets as US-China trade war escalates again with Trump's new tariffs. In particular, 10-year yield dived through 2% handle with ease and determination, to close at 1.894, lowest since November 2016. In the currency markets, Yen and Swiss Franc overtake Dollar's position as the strongest...
Sterling Softens after BoE, Yen Surges Through Key Resistance
Sterling weakens broadly today and remains the worst performing one for the week. BoE rate decision provided little inspiration while growth forecasts are notably lowered in the Inflation Report. Euro is the second weakest one on expectation of ECB easing in September. On the other hand, Yen is currently...
Dollar Powered Up by Fed Powell, Broke Key Resistance Against Euro
Dollar was shot up overnight as Fed's rate cut was, overall, less dovish as expected. At least, Chair Jerome Powell clearly indicated that it's not the start of a lengthy easing cycle. The greenback remains firm in Asian session, together with Australia and New Zealand Dollar. The latter two...
US Oil Inventory Extends Recent Decline
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks sank -10.14 mmb to 1298.4 mmb in the week ended July 25. Crude oil inventory slumped -8.5 mmb to 436.55 mmb (consensus: -2.59 mmb). Inventories fell in ALL 5...
FOMC Review – Market Disappointed as Powell Described Rate Cut as “Mid-Cycle Adjustment”
Fed announced to lower the policy rate by -25 bps to 2-2.25% in July. US dollar jumped while Wall Street declined although the decision came in widely anticipated. The market was probably disappointed by the lack of commitment of future rate cuts. The members remained confident about the domestic...