Sat, Jan 18, 2020 @ 09:39 GMT
In a surprising move, BOC increased the policy rate by +25 bps to 1% in September, following a rate hike in July. Policymakers cited the better-than-expected economic developments as a key reason for the removal of stimuli from the market. However, they remained cautious over a number of issues including excess capacity, subdued inflation, geopolitical risks and the strength in Canadian dollar.
BOE voted unanimously (9-0) to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.25% and the asset purchases program at 435B pound for UK gilts and 10B pound for non-financial GBP investment-grade corporate bonds. The members revised the growth forecasts significantly higher but left the inflation outlook largely unchanged. The latter was mainly due to the judgment that the labor slack was more than previously expected. Despite stronger growth outlook, Governor Mark Carney warned of the uncertainty over Brexit, cautioning that "there will be twists and turns along the way". While he reiterated that "we can see scenarios in either direction" for policy, we expect BOE to leave the monetary policy and the QE program unchanged at least in the first half of the year.
As widely anticipated, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for the 27th consecutive meeting. Yet, it has turned less optimistic about Australia’s economic outlook while noting downside risks to global growth. As suggested in the accompanying statement, the...
The Fed increased the policy rate by +25 bps for the first time in a year. While this had been widely anticipated, the 'dot plot' indicated that the members expect three hikes in 2017, up from two previously. The accompanying statement was in a hawkish tone, upgrading the assessments to the economic outlook. The members reinforced that 'near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. Fed Chair Janet Yellen made no hint on how the new fiscal policy would affect the monetary stance. Yet, she stressed there is non-negligible uncertainty regarding the new policy.
The RBA minutes for the May meeting contained little news but reiterated policymakers' the importance of the property market and the labor market conditions in its policy decision. The stance to leave the monetary policy unchanged was obviously due to the perceived uncertain outlook in these two areas. As noted in the concluding statement in the minutes, 'the board continued to judge that developments in the labour and housing markets warranted careful monitoring'.
ECB's July minutes voiced concerns over euro's strength. This is particularly important as the central bank is about to discuss tapering of the asset purchase program. Yet, the members generally agreed that "there was presently a continuing need for steady-handed and persistent monetary policy". The single currency instantly dropped to a 3-week low of 1.1661 against USD, 2-day low of 0.9061 against GBP and 4-day low of 1.1302 against CHF, before recovery.
RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 1.75% in May. The message delivered by the central bank came in slightly more dovish than expected, sending NZDUSD to a fresh 5-month low. In his first meeting in the capacity of the...
Despite initial rally following the announcement of a Brexit transition deal, British pound has retraced much of its gains. Both UK and EU officials have hailed the agreement. While UK's Brexit negotiator Davis David noted that the deal contains...
Unsurprisingly, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for a 29th meeting. While the members acknowledged more downside risks on the economic outlook, they maintained the monetary policy forward guidance unchanged. However, Aussie weakened after the announcement, amidst heightened...
There are several issues we are expecting from the FOMC meeting later this week. While it is widely anticipated that the Fed would leave its policy rate unchanged at 2.25-2.5%, the potential changes in the accompanying statement and the...
Another rate cut, by -25 bps, is a done deal this week, although the market has trimmed its expectations to 66% from 92% a week ago. This would take Fed funds rate's target range to 1.75-2%. The focus of...
As widely anticipated, RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 1.75%. Owing to the downside surprise in 4Q17 inflation, policymakers revised lower their inflation forecast, mainly driven by tradeable inflation. Meanwhile, the central bank now sees currency appreciation a less concern, as NDZUSD has retreated to a one-month low, and indicates that the positive impacts of fiscal stimulus (including KiwiBuild and the increase in minimum wages) have diminished. The overall monetary stance remains neutral with the first hike unlikely coming before the 2Q19.
While mainly maintaining the FOMC's stance, the new Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Congressional testimony before the House Finance Services Committee was interpreted as a hawkish one. Heightened speculations for three, or more, rate hikes this year were reflected...
In its first meeting in 2018, RBA maintained the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The decision had been widely anticipated. As suggested in the accompanying statement, the central bank continued to see positive economic developments both globally and at home. Policymakers have turned slightly more upbeat over the domestic growth outlook, projecting GDP to expand 'a bit above 3% over the next couple of years'. Meanwhile, RBA revealed that the central forecast for CPI is 'a bit above 2% in 2018. This marks a more hawkish tone when compared with December’s language. While the job market has improved a lot, with the unemployment rate falling to the lowest level in 4.5 years, wage growth has remained lackluster. This has raised concerns over household expenditure.
After lowering the policy rate by -25 bps to 1.50% in May, RBNZ would likely remain on hold this month. Domestic economic developments came in largely consistent with policymakers’ projections. Yet, global economic outlook remains uncertain and major central...
RBNZ is expected to leave the cash rate at 1.75% in March. However, as both domestic and global economic slowdown has intensified since the February meeting, we doubt if the central bank could maintain the guidance that next rate...
While leaving the policy rates unchanged for another month and pledged to continue FX market intervention when needed, the SNB has turned less dovish in December. It has turned more upbeat over the economic recovery outlook and acknowledged the depreciation of Swiss franc and the euro and US dollar. the central bank revised modestly higher the inflation forecasts for this year and 2018, while leaving that for 2019 unchanged.
Talks of ECB's tapering have been looming of late, thanks to Eurozone's improving economic developments, especially in Germany, adverse effects of negative deposit rates on financial institutions, bigger-than-expected targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROSs) take-up last week, as well as the asset buying program's ongoing deviation from its capital key. Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann has been vocal about less expansionary policy and a review to the forward guidance, while other members of the Governor Council reiterated the need to maintain accommodative measures to boost inflation.
RBA has sounded confident in the domestic growth outlook in both. On the job market, the members acknowledged the decline in unemployment rate and indicated the “notable” fall in youth unemployment. The central bank forecast that employment growth would...
Despite no change in the policy rate and the QE program, the euro gained after the ECB announcement, as President Mario Draghi added some upbeat flavors at the press conference and as the staff upgraded the inflation forecasts. The members continued to see risks to growth skewed to the downside, but agreed that they are "less pronounced" now. While the forward guidance in the statement maintained that "interest rates will stay low, or lower for an extended period of time", the members had discussions of its removal at the meeting. The single currency rose from a 3-day low of 1.0523 to as high as 1.0615 against US dollar. The pair gained +0.34% for the day. Global yields were also driven higher on possibility of a chance in ECB's policy measures. The 10-year German bund yield added +5.6 bps to 0.421% at close, whilst the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed further higher to about 2.6%.
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