Sun, Mar 29, 2020 @ 21:48 GMT
At the upcoming meeting, ECB members would likely acknowledge stabilization in the region’s economy, while reiterating accommodative monetary policy. The focus of the meeting would be the strategic review, the first assessment of the central bank’s monetary policy in...
At the RBA minutes for the March meeting, policymakers raised concerns over the increasing levels of household debts which would be exacerbated by rising unemployment and falling consumption. The members also noted there had been a "buildup of risks associated with the housing market". While the central bank has been paying close attention to the housing market, including prices, supply, rents, debts and supervisory markets, the reference of "a buildup of risks" was non-existent in the March meeting statement and the February minutes.
We expect ECB to deliver a easing package at this week’s meeting. Economic developments since the last meeting have remained steady. However, growth is limited and risk is skewed to the downside. The latest economic projections will show downgrades...
As widely anticipated, the SNB kept the sight deposit rate unchanged at -0.75%, while the target range for the three-month Libor stayed at between –1.25% and –0.25%. Again, the SNB maintained the commitment to intervene the FX market when...
SNB left the policy rate unchanged at -0.75%. It reiterated the commitment to “intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration”. Additionally, the central bank adjusted the interest charged on banks’...
The FOMC minutes for the September meeting anchored the Fed's stance to hike policy rate for one more time this year. While the views on economic growth developments remained broadly unchanged from previous meetings, the members appeared more concerned over the inflation outlook. The minutes included detailed discussions on the impacts hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Yet, they were expected to have limited impacts on US growth and inflation. The market has priced in almost 90% chance of a rate hike in December. The bet shows little change after the release of the minutes.
As widely anticipated, RBA lowered the cash rate for a second consecutive month today. After the -25 bps cut, the policy rate has reached a fresh record low of 1.00%. At the concluding statement, it pledged to adjust the...
The FOMC minutes for the September meeting contained little news regarding the rationale of the 25 bps rate hike last month, as well as the future path of monetary policy normalization. Yet, there are some points worth nothing. First,...
In contrast to February’s RBA meeting statement, which demonstrated a less dovish outlook, the minutes revealed that the members considered lowering the policy rate further. Yet, they decided to keep the powder dry on concerns over “risks associated with...
The market has priced in over 50% chance that the RBNZ would lower the OCR, by -25 bps, to 1.50% in May. Major economic indicators since the last meeting weakened. In particular, disappointing employment report and inflation in the...
As the coronavirus pandemic could very likely lead the world to recession, global central banks have rushed to inject liquidity through rate cuts another other unconventional measures. However, interest rates have already stayed at very low levels before the...
The price actions in US dollar and Treasuries suggested that the market views the July FOMC minutes as a dovish one. The minutes revealed that policymakers were concerned that US inflation might stay below +2% longer than previously anticipated. On the other hand, it appears that an announcement on balance sheet policy is imminent. The market pricing of a rate hike in December ranges from 35-45%. It only expects less than two times of rate hike through end-2018, compared with four projected in the Fed’s dot plot. US dollar initially climbed higher upon release of the statement. Gains were, however, erased shortly with the DXY index ending the day -0.33% lower. Treasury prices strengthened, sending 2-year yields -3 points lower to 1.33% and 10-year yields -5 points to 2.23%.
The RBA minutes for the November minutes delivered a dovish tone as policymakers expressed concerns over the wage growth outlook. This is consistent with the central bank's worry over household spending as indicated in the meeting statement (released earlier this month). We believe this has added further pressure to Aussie's recent weakness, sending AUDUSD to the lowest level in 5 months. The central bank kept its powder, leaving the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%, in November. We expect the monetary policy would stay unchanged at least until 1H18 and could extend to 2H18.
The market is closely watching ECB’s policy after QE. At the upcoming meeting next week, ECB would announce its plan to reinvest the maturing bonds. Meanwhile, market speculations are rising that the central bank would soon announce a new...
We expect ECB to implement more easing measures to stimulate the economy, and the timing would likely be in September. The July meeting, scheduled later this week, would be used to prepare the market further the easing package. Over...
BOE is almost certain to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% in the May meeting. Weakness in PMI data released last week aggravated concerns that recent the moderation in economic activities might persist. Doubts have arisen that whether...
Recent upbeat macroeconomic data has lifted speculations for a BOC rate hike in September. Yet, we do not expect the developments since the last meeting should change the central bank’s gradual normalization policy. Policymakers should bear in mind the...
Stock markets rallied after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Economic Club, New York. Market players were thrilled amid their interpretation that Powell has turned dovish, probably succumbed to Trump’s endless criticism. We do not see an abrupt...
Despite the dovish surprise in October, we expect BOC to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% this week. Economic data released during the inter-meeting period stayed firm, allowing the central bank to take more time to monitor the...
FOMC raised the fed funds target range, by +25 bps, to 0.75%-1.00% with 9-1 vote. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari dissented as he favored leaving the monetary policy unchanged. The Summary of Projections (SEP) shows virtually the same macroeconomic outlook. Moreover, the median dot plot maintained three rate hikes this year and in 2018. Chair Janet Yellen noted that that the projections have not included potential fiscal stimulus promised by President Donald Trump. She also noted that the Committee discussed on balance sheet policy but no conclusion was reached. The market was disappointed, reflected in the decline in US dollar and Treasury yields, as they had anticipated more hawkish statement and some upward adjustments in economic forecasts.
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