Fri, Apr 19, 2019 @ 04:34 GMT
RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for the 22nd meeting today. The accompanying statement continued to deliver a “neutral” tone on the future path of the monetary policy. Since the last meeting, domestic economic growth has stayed,...
The aim of the FOMC meeting later this week is to prepare the market for a December rate hike. While the recent stock market crash and slowdown in inflation have trimmed bet for a December rate hike to 77.5%...
BOE voted 7-2 to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% in May. The members voted unanimously to leave to asset purchase program unchanged at 435B pound. As we had mentioned in the preview (https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/92835-boe-could-be-more-dovish-than-hawkish-hold/), BOE’s message turned out...
BOE voted unanimously (9-0) to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.25% and the asset purchases program at 435B pound for UK gilts and 10B pound for non-financial GBP investment-grade corporate bonds. The members revised the growth forecasts significantly higher but left the inflation outlook largely unchanged. The latter was mainly due to the judgment that the labor slack was more than previously expected. Despite stronger growth outlook, Governor Mark Carney warned of the uncertainty over Brexit, cautioning that "there will be twists and turns along the way". While he reiterated that "we can see scenarios in either direction" for policy, we expect BOE to leave the monetary policy and the QE program unchanged at least in the first half of the year.
ECB shrugged off the improvement in the economic data since the last meeting, reinforcing its dovish stance and raising the likelihood of further easing measures. The focus of the meeting was arrangements for TLTRO III and the tiered deposit...
BOE’s rate hike in August is almost fully priced in. The focus is, thus, on the monetary policy outlook. The upcoming increase of +25 bps is the second one in more than a decade. Although the pickup in growth...
The minutes for the June ECB meeting turned out more hawkish than expected, sending EURUSD to a 3-day high of 1.1397 and Europe's Stoxx 600 stock index to a 11-week low 378.45. The minutes unveiled that policymakers had discussed removing the guidance on the bond asset purchase program (QE), if necessary. Policymakers just shrugged off recent weakness in headline inflation as core inflation continued to climb higher.
As widely anticipated, the SNB kept the sight deposit rate unchanged at -0.75%, while the target range for the three-month Libor stayed at between –1.25% and –0.25%. Again, the SNB maintained the commitment to intervene the FX market when...
SNB left target range for the three-month Libor unchanged at between -1.25% and -0.25%, and maintained a dovish tone. Apart from pledging to intervene the “highly valued” Swiss franc, the central bank downgraded its inflation forecasts. However, this appears...
As widely anticipated, ECB left the policy rates unchanged in September. It also kept the QE program at a pace of 60B euro per month until end 2017, or longer if needed. At the press conference, President Mario Draghi acknowledged the improvement in the economic outlook but was cautious over inflation, warning that headline CPI could fall to the negative territory towards the end of the year. At the Q&A session of the press conference, Draghi admitted that the members began "preliminary" discussion on the adjustment of the QE program but affirmed that the "big labour market slack" is justified for the record low interest rates. On the updated economic projections, the staff upgraded the GDP growth forecasts but downgraded inflation outlooks. EURUSD broke above 1.2, attempting to retest the 2.5 year high made on August 29 after a brief pullback.
Contrary to the market which has been pricing in a rate cut later this year, the Fed affirmed in the minutes for the March meeting that the members’ consensus was no change in the monetary policy for the rest...
As expected, BOJ left its monetary stance unchanged in July. The central bank voted 7-2 to keep its target for 10-year JGBs at around 0% and its short-term deposit rate at -0.1% as expected. It also maintained the measure to buy government bonds at an annual rate of 80 trillion yen. What is more dovish is that the central bank now forecasts it would take longer than previously anticipated for the economy to achieve the +2% inflation target. It is the 6th time that the central bank pushed back the projected timing for achieving the inflation target. USDJPY has rebounded +0.23% since the announcement.
BOC raised the policy rate by +25 bps to 1.25% in January, as 'recent data have been strong, inflation is close to target, and the economy is operating roughly at capacity'. The move had been widely anticipated. As...
ECB left the policy rates unchanged, with the main refinancing rate, the marginal lending rate and the deposit rate staying at 0%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The pace of asset purchases also stayed unchanged at 30B euro per month until September, or beyond, if necessary. President Mario Draghi attempted to downplay speculations that the central bank would soon adjust the forward guidance, as interpreted by many following the December meeting minutes. Meanwhile, he stressed that any rate hike would be 'well past' the end of asset purchases. Draghi also warned of the impacts of the strong euro on growth and complained about the US for talking down the greenback at the World Economic Forum.
BOC delivered its fourth post-crisis rate hike in July. While the increase of +25 bps had been widely anticipated, the accompanying statement and the updated growth forecasts appear more hawkish. While raising GDP growth outlook for 2019 and 2020,...
Surprisingly, BOE voted 6-3 to leave the Bank rate on hold at 0.50%. Chief economist Andy Haldane joined Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders in opting for a +25bps rate hike. The outcome is more hawkish than consensus of a...
While keeping the OCR unchanged at 1.75%, the tone of November RBNZ statement has turned slightly more hawkish than previous ones. The central bank upgraded inflation forecasts, while describing core inflation as 'subdued' and reiterating 'uncertainties' in the new government's policies. The growth outlook remained largely unchanged from August's, as weaker growth in the housing and construction sector would be offset by greater fiscal spending promised by the new government and higher terms of trade, thanks to NZD depreciation and the rise in oil prices. RBNZ slightly pushed ahead the rate hike schedule. However, given the minimal change, we believe this is rather a symbolic move. The central bank expects more material interest rate movements by 2020. We believe the monetary policy would stay unchanged for the rest of 2018.
RBA minutes for the July meeting suggested that policymakers acknowledged the economic growth and the improvement in the labor market recently. The members also discussed the appropriate neutral rate which they believed should be at +3.5%, well above the current cash rate of 1.5%. This heightened market expectations of a potential rate hike in the near-term. As such, Aussie jumped to a 2-year high after the release of the minutes.
While RBA had left the cash unchanged at 1.5% in April, the minutes for the meeting was closely-watched. Recall that the central bank turned more dovish as it acknowledged more downside risks to the growth outlook. The minutes reinforced...
RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% in April, continuing to struggle between soaring property prices and subdued inflation. Policymakers appeared more optimistic over the global economic outlook than the domestic one. The central bank remained concerned over the rising property prices and warned of the situation that household borrowing growth was outpacing growth in income. We expect RBA to leave its monetary stance unchanged throughout the year.
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