Sun, Jul 21, 2019 @ 23:19 GMT
The FOMC minutes for the May meeting contain some dovish signs from the Fed. The members remained confident over the economic developments, acknowledging strong employment market and improvement in inflation. However, many of them remained wary of limited wage...
BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. What caused the market dramatic market movement was its dovish turn – stripping off the forward guidance that the next move would be a rate hike. The abrupt turn in just...
At the upcoming FOMC meeting, the members would vote to leave the Fed funds rate target at 2.25-2.5%. We expect reinforcement of the dovish message conveyed in January. The focus is on the plan to complete the reduction of...
RBNZ’s August statement comes in more dovish than we had anticipated. While leaving the OCR unchanged at 1.75%, the members pushed backward expectations for the next interest rate adjustment. Moreover, they pushed back the timing for inflation to reach...
At the August 9 meeting (this Thursday), we expect RBNZ to leave the OCR unchanged at 1.75% and deliver a neutral to slightly dovish policy statement. Since the June meeting, data showed that economic growth moderated while inflation picked...
The July FOMC meeting came in as widely anticipated. The Fed left its monetary policy unchanged, maintaining the federal funds rate target at 1-1.25%. The Fed made two tweak in the statement, though. First, it noted that balance sheet reduction would begin 'relatively soon', signaling that the official announcement would come in September. Second, policymakers revised lower the outlook on core inflation. US dollar plunged, with the weighted index falling to a 13-month low as the market interpreted the inflation assessment as dovish.
BOE voted 7-2 to raise the Bank rate by +25 bps to 0.5%, the first time in over a decade, in November. Two deputy governors, Sir Jon Cunliffe and Sir Dave Ramsden, voted to leave borrowing costs unchanged. BOE voted unanimously to leave the asset purchase program unchanged at 435B pound. Governor Carney declined to comment when the unwinding would begin. Traders have begun to dump British pound ahead of the announcement on profit-taking. The selloff accelerates upon release of the meeting statement and the quarterly inflation report. The rate hike this month is to remediate excessive inflation which has sustainably overshot the +2% target for months.
We expect ECB to turn more dovish at the meeting later this week, as economic data have pointed to further weakness. There are several issues worth watching for the meeting: rhetoric on economic outlook, instruments to alleviate tightening of...
In its quarterly meeting, SNB announced to leave the policy rate – the interest rate on sight deposits, unchanged at -0.75%. On a technical change, the central bank introduced a new benchmark – the SNB policy rate- in replacement...
BOC delivered its fourth post-crisis rate hike in July. While the increase of +25 bps had been widely anticipated, the accompanying statement and the updated growth forecasts appear more hawkish. While raising GDP growth outlook for 2019 and 2020,...
FOMC raised the Fed funds rate, by +25 bps, to 2-2.25% in September. While the accompanying statement was largely dubbed from the previous meeting, the market has viewed the removal of the “accommodative” policy language has slightly dovish. This...
As widely anticipated, SNB left the sight deposit rate unchanged at -0.75%. The target range for the three-month Libor stayed at between -1.25% and -0.25%. Reiterating the excessive strength in Swiss franc, the central bank pledged that it would "remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration. Policymakers acknowledged ongoing improvements in the global economy but noted that it is "is still subject to considerable risks", among which the key is political uncertainty with "respect to the future course of economic policy in the US, upcoming elections in Europe, and the complex exit negotiations between the UK and the EU".
As expected, RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 1.75%, following three rate cuts in 2016. The policy statement has changed to a more neutral tone from an accommodative one previously. Yet, the central bank's rate hike forecasts stay at a slower pace than what the market has priced in. Policymakers acknowledged that economic growth has 'increased as expected and is steadily drawing on spare resources'. The outlook remain s positive. It also acknowledged the return of headline CPI to the target band, and judged it would gradually move to the midpoint of the band. We expect the OCR would stay unchanged for the rest of the year.
The Fed addressed the issues we are concerned with, in quite a dovish tone, at the January meeting. As widely anticipated, the Fed funds rate stayed unchanged at 2.25-2.5%. The members removed the forward guidance of gradual interest rate...
ECB's July minutes voiced concerns over euro's strength. This is particularly important as the central bank is about to discuss tapering of the asset purchase program. Yet, the members generally agreed that "there was presently a continuing need for steady-handed and persistent monetary policy". The single currency instantly dropped to a 3-week low of 1.1661 against USD, 2-day low of 0.9061 against GBP and 4-day low of 1.1302 against CHF, before recovery.
As widely anticipated, BOE voted unanimously to keep all monetary policies unchanged in November. The Bank rate stays unchanged at 0.75%. Meanwhile, purchases of gilts and corporate bonds remain at 435B pound and 10B pound, respectively. The central bank...
Headline CPI in the UK surprisingly stayed unchanged at +2.6% y/y in July, compared with consensus of a renewed pick up to +2.7%. From a month ago, inflation contracted -0.1%, after a flat reading in June. Re-designated by the Statistics Authority on July 31, the consumer price index including owner occupiers' housing (CPIH) steadied at +2.6%. The price of motor fuel continued to fall and contributed to the biggest downward change from June to July. Upward contributions came from a range of goods and services, including clothing, household goods, gas and electricity, and food and non-alcoholic beverages. Core CPI stayed unchanged at +2.4%, missing market expectation of a rise to +2.5%.
RBA left the policy rate unchanged at 1.5% in June, and made no change to the monetary policy guidance. The central bank remained confident over the global economic outlook. Indeed, it has so far not commented about the slowdown...
As we expected, BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% in yesterday. Policymakers admitted that the decline in oil price has “material” impact on the economy. Yet, they viewed the impact as transitory. Reflecting the view on economy...
BOC sent a mixed message in its April meeting. As shown in the accompanying statement, it has turned more dovish as it removed any chance of rate hike in the near- to medium- term. The central bank downgraded GDP...
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