Thu, May 28, 2020 @ 04:21 GMT
BOE will likely leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75% this week. There will be no press conference or inflation report accompanying the meeting. However, it will be interesting to see if the members adjust its tone after UK...
Stock markets rallied after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Economic Club, New York. Market players were thrilled amid their interpretation that Powell has turned dovish, probably succumbed to Trump’s endless criticism. We do not see an abrupt...
RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% in May. Yet, the accompanying statement remained dovish, citing sharp deceleration in core inflation, decline in house price and subdued household consumption as key areas of concerns. On the monetary policy...
ECB left the policy rates unchanged, with the main refinancing rate, the marginal lending rate and the deposit rate staying at 0%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The pace of asset purchases also stayed unchanged at 30B euro per month until September, or beyond, if necessary. President Mario Draghi attempted to downplay speculations that the central bank would soon adjust the forward guidance, as interpreted by many following the December meeting minutes. Meanwhile, he stressed that any rate hike would be 'well past' the end of asset purchases. Draghi also warned of the impacts of the strong euro on growth and complained about the US for talking down the greenback at the World Economic Forum.
BOE voted 9-0 to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75% in December. The committee also voted unanimously to leave the asset purchase program at 435B pound .It has turned more cautious than November, warning that Brexit uncertainty has...
BOE joined other central banks in downgrading the economic growth outlook. In addition to heightened risks of global growth slowdown, ongoing Brexit uncertainty is the key concern for the members. The members voted unanimously to keep the Bank rate...
The upcoming FOMC meeting later this week aims at preparing the market for another +25 bps rate hike in September. As no press conference and economic projections would follow the August meeting, the post-meeting statement, and the minutes in...
BOE voted unanimously to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75%, and the asset purchase program at 435B pound, in March. Dataflow during the inter-meeting period was mixed, while the Brexit outlook has become even less certain. The members...
To our, and the market's, surprise, BOE's Kristin Forbes voted in favor of a 25 bps rate hike in March. While this had not altered the decision of keeping the Bank rate unchanged at 0.25%, the overall message sent to the public has now become more hawkish. The members voted unanimously to leave the government bond purchases at 435B pound and corporate bond purchases at up to 10B pound. Adding to the rising speculations of tightening is the minutes, which suggested that some of those who voted for unchanged policy believed 'it would take relatively little further upside news on the prospects for activity or inflation for them to consider that a more immediate reduction in policy support might be warranted'. GBPUSD jumped to a 2-week high of 1.2376 after the announcement, before settling at 1.2358, up +0.55%.
BOJ again voted 8-1 to leave the monetary policies unchanged in October. The targets for short- and long-term interest rates stay at -0.1% and around 0%, respectively while the guideline for JGB purchases remains at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen. Again, BOJ revised lower its inflation forecasts for FY 2017 and FY 2018 but maintained that for FY 2019. The central bank upgraded the GDP growth outlook for FY 2017 while leaving others unadjusted. The new member was the lone dissent as he voted against the yield curve control measure for two meetings in a row. He judged that 'monetary easing effects gained from the current yield curve were not enough for 2% inflation to be achieved around fiscal 2019'. At the press conference, Governor Kuroda defended the yield curve control policy and the +2% target. As he suggested, the 'main objective is to achieve 2% inflation and stably maintain price growth at that level. There's no change to our view that monetary policy must be guided to achieve this objective' and there is no need to change the yield targets'.
As widely anticipated, the November FOMC meeting contained few changes from the previous one. The members left the target range of the Fed funds rate unchanged at 1-1.25%. One surprise came from the upgrade of the growth assessment to 'solid' for the first time since 2015, despite disruptions by hurricanes. Inflation stayed below the +2% target and the members acknowledged that core inflation 'remained soft'. However, the encouraging growth outlook and further decline in the unemployment rate suggest that a December rate hike remains on track.
Decided unanimously, FOMC raised the Fed funds rate by +25 bps to a range of 1.75-2.00%. In a technical adjustment, it also lifted the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances, by +20 bps, to 1.95% so...
The aim of the FOMC meeting later this week is to prepare the market for a December rate hike. While the recent stock market crash and slowdown in inflation have trimmed bet for a December rate hike to 77.5%...
We expect the FOMC will leave the Fed funds rate unchanged at 1.5-1.75% in December. The employment report released last week confirmed a resilient job market. Other indicators showed little deviation from the trend observed in October. Indeed, unless...
RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for a 25th consecutive month. Similar to previous meetings, policymakers were upbeat over the growth and the employment outlook, while acknowledging soft wage growth and inflation. In short, the central bank...
Since the BOC meeting in May, at which the policymakers removed the “cautious” rhetoric, the market has been raising its bet on a July rate hike. As of today, the market has priced in over 90% chance of a...
The greenback got dumped, as a result of a series events happened over the past day. Defeat of GOP Roy Moore in the Alabama Senate race and the miss of the core CPI were followed by a final version of tax bill. The day culminated in the conclusion of the FOMC announcement, which saw a 25 bps rate hike as expected, but with two dissents. US dollar fell against major currencies with the DXY index losing -0.71% for the day. Treasuries firmed, sending yields higher with the 2-year and 10-year yields dropping -4 points and -5 points respectively.
The FOMC minutes for the April meeting revealed that the members were very much concerned about the job market and inflation outlook as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. While leaving the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, the...
RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for the 22nd meeting today. The accompanying statement continued to deliver a “neutral” tone on the future path of the monetary policy. Since the last meeting, domestic economic growth has stayed,...
FOMC left the Fed funds rate unchanged at 1.50-1.75% as widely anticipated. The accompanying statement contained few changes which were skewed to a mildly dovish side. Given the Fed’s dissatisfaction over weak inflation and uncertainty over global growth, the...
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