Thu, Jun 04, 2020 @ 20:15 GMT
The FOMC minutes for the June meeting revealed that the members were confident over the growth and inflation outlook, although they acknowledged intensifying trade conflicts. There were discussions over the term structure of interest rates. While many of them...
As revealed in the latest Statement of Monetary Policy (SMP), RBA sharply cut economic forecasts for this year. GDP is projected to record double-digit contraction in the first half of the year before recovery in 2021. The unemployment rate...
Of the three major European central banks held monetary meeting on Thursday, all left their policy rates unchanged. Moreover, all pointed to higher uncertainty in the global economic outlook. BOE kept its Bank rate unchanged at a record low of 0.25%. The sizes of government and corporate bond purchases also stayed unchanged at435B pound and up to 10b pound, respectively, in December. Policymakers warned that the recent strength in sterling might cool inflation in the medium-term. SNB held deposit rate steady at -0.75%, while Norges bank left kept its deposit rate steady at 0.5%.
BOE’s rate hike in August is almost fully priced in. The focus is, thus, on the monetary policy outlook. The upcoming increase of +25 bps is the second one in more than a decade. Although the pickup in growth...
The FOMC minutes for the December meeting revealed that policymakers were optimistic about the path of economic expansion. This was partly a result of the government's fiscal stimulus. On the tax cut, some members judged that it would help boost both capital and household spending, although the magnitude remains uncertain. The December rate hike of +25 bps was data-dependent but a key factor was the strong employment market. While wage growth was still "modest", a few members forecast it to accelerate as the job market tightened further. Many members expected that the tightening labor market would lead to higher inflation in the medium- term, but some continued to judge that core inflation would persistently stay below the 2% target. The rate hike in December was not unanimous as Chicago Fed President Charles Evans dissented.
We expect BOC to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% at the upcoming meeting this week. Besides releasing the statement and Monetary Policy Report, the central bank would also update the economic forecasts and host a press conference....
RBA, in its June meeting minutes, explicitly noted that the policy rate would be lower. This message came in more dovish than market expectations. The major concern remained in the lackluster improvement in the labor market. RBA cut the...
It is widely expected that the Fed will leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.5-1.75% at the January meeting. Meanwhile, we believe the accompanying statement will contain only minor change from the one in December. Major economic data will...
As widely anticipated, the FOMC left the target range for the Fed funds rate unchanged at between 0.75- 1%. Although the accompanying statement was largely unchanged from the previous month, the implications were important in light of the slowdown in the first quarter. While acknowledging the recent weakness in growth and inflation, policymakers attributed it to 'transitory effects'. The downplaying of 1Q17's disappointments underpinned the Fed's determination to carry on its normalization plan. The FOMC maintained its economic outlook and the gradual rate-hike approach. We continue to expect two more rate hikes this year with one coming in June.
BOE is almost certain to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% in the May meeting. Weakness in PMI data released last week aggravated concerns that recent the moderation in economic activities might persist. Doubts have arisen that whether...
In his last meeting as the president, Mario Draghi is not expected to announce any new measures. Rather, he would be defending the needs of the stimulus package announced in September and urging for a bigger role in fiscal...
We expect BOE to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.25% and the asset purchase program at 435B pound at the upcoming meeting. The vote split might probably come in at 6-2 from 5-3 in June, as Silvana Tenreyro, successor of Kristin Forbes appears less hawkish and noted that the monetary policy decision would be data-dependent. Members favoring a rate hike were mainly hinged on the fact that inflation has been overshooting the central bank's target. However, there was a sign of slowdown on the consumer price level in June, offering room for policymakers to stand on the sideline amidst lackluster economic growth and wage, as well as uncertainty in Brexit negotiations.
As widely anticipated, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.25% in April. This is following two emergency rate cuts (50 bps in total) a month ago. The central bank pledged to maintain the stimulus measures announced last month...
As expected, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1% in September. The accompany gin statement is largely unchanged from the previous one. RBA has not made any hints about a rate cut next month. Policymakers might want to...
BOC turned dovish in the October meeting, while maintaining the policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. For the first time, the central bank discussed about “insurance” rate cut, citing trade war’s damage to business investment and exports. The announcement sent...
BOC raised the policy rate by +25 bps to 1.25% in January, as 'recent data have been strong, inflation is close to target, and the economy is operating roughly at capacity'. The move had been widely anticipated. As...
Despite expectations that the ECB would only announce adjustments on QE and interest rate in June the earliest, the upcoming meeting is not a non-event. Since the March meeting, Eurozone’s economic data have surprised to the downside. It would...
Again, we expect BOE to vote unanimously to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75%, as well as to leave the asset purchase program at 435B pound, at the February meeting. While the focus of the meeting remains on...
The FOMC minutes for the November revealed that the members still considered a rate hike in December is appropriate. Yet, they debated on the change in forward guidance regarding the pledge on “further gradual increases” in the policy rate....
Fed announced to lower the policy rate by -25 bps to 2-2.25% in July. US dollar jumped while Wall Street declined although the decision came in widely anticipated. The market was probably disappointed by the lack of commitment of...
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