WTI-Brent Crude Spread Widened Markedly on US Demand Concerns, Offsetting Inventory Draw
Crude oil prices plunged more than -2% on profit-taking. The front-month WTI contract settled at US$41.51/bbl, lowest since August 7. The front-month Brent contract fell to US$44.43/bbl, lowest since August 21, at close. WTI-Brent spread widened to US$ 2.92/bbl. The correction came in despite sharp draw in US inventory....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH in Crude Oil and Gold Fell, while that in Natural Gas Climbed Higher
All commodity futures under our coverage were in net speculative long positions last week. NET LENGTH in natural gas futures rose the most as hurricane Laura had raised concerns about supply, outweighing demand worries. NET LENGTH in crude oil futures declined, although price slowly climbed higher. Gold's NET LENGTH...
WTI-Brent Spread Narrowed on Hurricane and Inventory Draw
Crude oil prices firmed with WTI-Brent spread narrowing slightly on Wednesday. Hurricane Laura, now a catastrophic Category 4 hurricane, is expected to an “unsurvivable storm surge,” extreme winds and flash floods over Eastern Texas and Louisiana. This could likely cause damage in oil production facilities in Gulf Coast. Meanwhile,...
Factors Supporting Gold Price Remain as ETFs Add Holdings and Low Yields Persist
Gold price has corrected about -7% over the past weeks, after making a record high of US$ 2060/oz earlier in the month. While further weakness appears likely, we remain bullish on the yellow metal as factors driving its price higher, e.g. low yields, expansionary monetary policy, etc, remain intact....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Crude Oil and Gold Continued to Drop
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 18, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures declined -10 240 contracts to 510 695 for the week. Speculative long position fell -17 242 contracts, while dropped -7 002. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for gasoline...
US Cushing Oil Stock Fell for First Time in Almost 2 Months. Oil Prices Dropped on Weaker Demand Prospect
Crude oil prices weakened despite decline in US inventory levels. At the video conference held by the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, oil producers warned that “the pace of recovery appeared to be slower than anticipated. Yet, they dismissed increasing output cut from the current deal. The report from...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Gold and Silver Futures Trimmed as Prices Pulled Back after Rally
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 11, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -15 331 contracts to 520 935 for the week. Speculative long position declined -10 925 contracts, while shorts added +4 406. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for...
US Oil and Petroleum Product Stockpile Fell Across the Board Last Week
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -2.11 mmb to 1452.57 mmb in the week ended August 12. Crude oil inventory declined -4.51 mmb (consensus: -2.88 mmb) to 514.08 mmb. Stockpile fell in 2 out...
Crude’s Strength Might Pause as OPEC+ Output Set to Increase Further this Month
Crude oil prices remained firm, after the rally in July. The front-month WTI crude oil contract gained +2.36% in the first week of August, after gaining +2.55% in the month of July. The Brent contract rose +2.54%, following a +5.22% rally in July. Profit-taking might be seen in coming...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gold’s Net Length Climbed Slightly as Short Positions Emerged after Weeks’ of Rally
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 4, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +3 697 contracts to 536 266 for the week. Speculative long position rose +16 930 contracts, while shorts gained +13 233. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for...
US Crude Oil Inventory Sank for Second Consecutive Week, While Refined Product Stocks Increased
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -2.11 mmb to 1452.57 mmb in the week ended July 31. Crude oil inventory declined -7.37 mmb (consensus: -3 mmb) to 518.6 mmb. Stockpile fell in 3 out...
Gold Breaks US$2000/oz as US dollar Loses Credibility as Reserve Currency
Breaking yet another new record, gold price has surpassed psychological level US$2000/oz. As we mentioned in last week’s report, the key drivers for the rally are low real yields and rising inflation expectations. Weakness is US dollar is another driver for the yellow metal's strength. However, the negative correlation...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH on Crude Oil and Gold Futures Declined on Profit Taking
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 28, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -16 307 contracts to 532 569 for the week. Speculative long position slumped -11 088 contracts, while shorts gained +5 219. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for...
US Crude Oil Inventory Surprisingly Plunged, While Petroleum Stockpile Gained
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks soared +8.82 mmb to 1461.16 mmb in the week ended July 24. Crude oil inventory slumped -10.61 mmb (consensus: +0.36 mmb) to 525.97 mmb. Stockpile fell in 4 out...
Gold Price Approaches US$2,000/oz amidst Low Real Yields, Rising Inflation Expectations and Geopolitical Tensions
Gold's rally has accelerated with the front-month Comex contract making new highs for two consecutive dates. We believe the recent relentless rally of the yellow metal is driven by a number of factors: low real rates, expectations of higher inflation as a result of ultra expansionary monetary policy and...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Crude Oil Trimmed on Both Sides. Yet, Net Length Soared
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 21, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures rise +9 125 contracts to 548 876 for the week. Bets on both sides increased. Speculative short position plunged -13 473 contracts, more than offsetting the -13 473 decline...
US Crude Oil Inventory Surprisingly Increased, Cushing Stockpile Rose for Three Weeks in a Row
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks soared +8.82 mmb to 1461.16 mmb in the week ended July 17. Crude oil inventory gained +4.89 mmb (consensus: -2.09 mmb) to 536.58 mmb. Stockpile increased in 3 out...
Silver Price to Go High on Economic Recovery amidst High Uncertainty
Silver price’s rally has accelerated over the past weeks. Currently trading at US$ 22.65/oz, price has jumped +27% ytd. Yet, much of the gains (22% out of 27%) was made in the first three weeks of July. With its dual properties, as both industrial and precious metals, silver will...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length on Crude Oil Futures Gained Modestly as Price Consolidated at 7-Month High
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 14, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +4 434 contracts to 539 751 for the week. Speculative long positions rise +5 715 contracts while shorts added +1 281 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Crude Oil Prices Firm in Sharp Fall in US Inventory and Better Demand Outlook. Upside Limited as OPEC+ to Raise Output
Crude oil prices climbed higher on more upbeat demand outlook and huge decline in US inventory. However, the upside would likely be limited as OPEC+ is prone to taper output cut, by 2M bpr, to 7.7M bpd from August. In the latest energy reports, all three major agencies revised...