FOMC to Stay Put this Week
It is widely expected that the Fed will leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.5-1.75% at the January meeting. Meanwhile, we believe the accompanying statement will contain only minor change from the one in December. Major economic data will be released days after the FOMC meeting. Yet, the Fed...
Markets Sold Off on Coronavirus Worries, Dollar Momentum to be Capped by Yen Strength
China's new coronavirus overshadowed central bank activities last week and prompted global risk aversion. At the timing of writing, death toll jumped to 41 while more than 1300 people have been infected globally. The virus has already spread from Wuhan to other major cities in China, and globally to...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH on DXY Futures Dropped
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended January 21. NET LENGTH in USD Index slipped -323 contracts to 12 940. Speculative long positions were down -256 contracts and short positions added +67 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures dropped -1...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on Crude Oil Prices
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended January 21. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures decreased -9 744 contracts to 520 568 for the week. Speculative long positions fell -11 216 contracts while shorts dropped -1 472 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Euro and Sterling Dip after PMIs, Dollar and Canadian Firmer
European majors are generally weaker today. Stronger than expected UK PMIs add to the case for BoE to stand pat next week. But the Pound shrugs off the data. Euro also receive no particular support from PMIs, which signals that the economy failed to pick up momentum for recovery....
EUR/GBP Weak ahead of Eurozone and UK PMIs
Euro continues to trade with a soft tone in Asian session, and there is no sign of recovery after yesterday's post ECB selloff. Australian Dollar is also weak after poor PMI data, even though markets are pushing RBA cut bets from February to April. On the other hand, market...
US Crude Oil Inventory Dropped Modestly. Petroleum Stockpiles Gained
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks slipped -1.9 mmb to 1294.4 mmb in the week ended January 17. Crude oil inventory dropped -0.41 mmb (consensus: -1.01 mmb) to 428.11 mmb. Stockpile fell in 3 out...
Euro Weakens after Uninspiring ECB, Risk Aversion Dominates With Coronavirus Fears
Euro is trading as one of the weakest major currencies, together with Canadian Dollar, for today. There is little inspiration from ECB rate decision and press conference. Canadian Dollar is weak on free fall in oil price, with WTI pressing 55 handle now. Australian Dollar continues to be the...
Aussie Recovers on Receding RBA Cut Bet, But Yen Stronger on Coronavirus Worries
Australian Dollar rises broadly today as markets pare back bet on RBA rate cut in February, following better than expected job data. Though, upside is limited by risk aversion while Aussie is just following Yen as the second strongest. Asian stocks trade generally, deeply lower, after China halted travel...
BOC Turned Dovish Again, Opening Door For Rate Cut
While leaving the monetary policy unchanged at expected, BOC delivered a dovish tone at the accompanying statement. This raised hopes of a rate cut in coming months and sent the loonie lower. The central bank has turned less confident about the near-term economic outlook, forecasting that the slowdown in...
Sterling Surges on Record Improvement in Business Optimism, Traders Pare BoE Cut Bets
Sterling jumps broadly today as traders pare back bet on an imminent rate cut by BoE next week. Record improvement in quarterly business optimism is seen as a trigger for the sharp change in expectations. Canadian Dollar attempts to rally after CPI met expectations. But there is no range...
Canadian Dollar Mixed Awaiting BoC and CPI, Dollar Firmer
Yen and Swiss Franc turn mildly softer today as risk aversions receded. Asian stocks recover generally even though upside is limited. Traders remain cautious on coronavirus outbreak in China, which has already spread to the US. Sterling, Euro and Dollar are currently the stronger ones. Canadian Dollar is mixed,...
Sterling and Euro Rebound on Data, Risk Aversion Remains
Sterling and Euro rebound strongly today as lifted by solid economic data. But overall market sentiments remain weak concern of outbreak of coronavirus in China, ahead of lunar new year mass travel. Commodity currencies continue to trade as the weakest ones, following decline in stock markets. Yen is also...
Risk Aversion Dominates on Concerns of Coronavirus Outbreak in China
Risk aversion dominates the Asian markets today on concerns of coronavirus outbreak in China. Hong Kong HSI leads the way down, additionally pressured by Moody's downgrade. In the currency markets, commodity currencies are broadly lower, with Australian Dollar suffering biggest selloff. Yen and Swiss Franc are the strongest for...
BOC to Leave Rate Unchanged at 1.75%. Disappointing Data Likely Due to Temporary Factors
BOC is likely to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% at the meeting this week. While several macroeconomic data released since the December meeting surprised to the downside, it could take a few more months to confirm the trend. BOC also appears to have downplayed the downside risks...
Dollar Rises Again after Brief Retreat, EUR/USD Pressing Key Support
Dollar, Canadian and Yen are so far the strongest ones in a relatively quiet day. The greenback is supported by recent data as well as easing trade tension. But as the US economic calendar is ultra light this week, Dollar's fate is likely on others' hands. Canadian Dollar is...
ECB to Leave Monetary Policy Unchanged, Focus Turns to Strategic Review
At the upcoming meeting, ECB members would likely acknowledge stabilization in the region’s economy, while reiterating accommodative monetary policy. The focus of the meeting would be the strategic review, the first assessment of the central bank’s monetary policy in two decades. We do not anticipate any change in the...
Dollar Retreats Mildly in Quiet Markets, Three Central Banks to Meet this Week
The financial markets are generally steady in Asian session today. Dollar turns slightly softer against Euro and commodity currencies, but losses are so far limited. Though, Sterling is clearly weak as pressured by speculations of BoE rate cut. The Pound will face some more challenges from economic data this...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH for DXY Index Futures Climbed Mildly Higher
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended January 14. NET LENGTH in USD Index added +795 contracts to 13 263. Speculative long positions gaomed +1 765 contracts and short positions added +970 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures declined -13...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH for Crude Oil Declined on Profit Taking
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended January 14. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures declined -36 960 contracts to 530 312 for the week. Speculative long positions fell -28 565 contracts while shorts gained +8 395 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...