Japan GDP grew 0.2% in Q4 only, missed expectations

    Japan GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q4, below expectation of 0.5% qoq. In annualized term, GDP rose 0.6%, below expectation of 2.0%. GDP deflator rose 1.1% yoy, matched expectations. For the full year of 2022, GDP expanded 1.1%, slowed from 2021’s 2.1%.

    Economy Minister Shigeyuki Goto said after the release, “Rising inflation and the global slowdown are risks… But corporate spending appetite hasn’t cooled … we’re not too pessimistic about the outlook.”

    Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “With global monetary tightening continuing, the slowdown in overseas economies could still drag on Japan’s economy as well. We also need to pay attention to the impact from inflation, supply constraints, volatility in financial markets and the spread of Covid cases in China.”

    Separately, it’s confirmed that the government nominated Kazuo Ueda as the next BoJ Governor, when Haruhiko Kuroda’s term ends on April 8. Ueda is a 71-year-old former BoJ board member and an academic at Kyoritsu Women’s University.

    RBNZ survey: OCR expected to rise to 5% by year end

      According to RBNZ Survey of Expectations (Business), one-year inflation expectations rose slightly from 5.08% to 5.11% in February quarter. The reading was similar to value from the 1990 survey when actual CPI was 7.60%.

      On the other hand, two-year inflation expected dropped further from 3.62% to 3.30%. The spread also narrowed, with no respondent answering below 2.00% or above 6.00%.

      Official Cash Rate (OCR) expectations increased notably by 74 basis points from 4.25% to 4.89% by the end of this quarter. OCR is expected rise further to 5.00% by the end of the year, up from 4.67%.

      Full release here.

      Australia NAB business confidence rose to 6, conditions rose to 18

        Australia NAB Business Confidence rose further from 0 to 6 in January. Business Conditions also improved from 13 to 18. Looking at some details, trading conditions rose from 20 to 28. Profitability conditions rose from 13 to 17. Employment conditions rose from 9 to 10.

        NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster: “Business conditions picked back up in January after three months of softening in late 2022. There were strong increases in conditions for ‘upstream’ sectors such as wholesale, construction and manufacturing, and importantly, conditions in the more consumer-facing industries remained very strong.”

        “Confidence dipped into negative territory late in 2022 but is now back around the average after rebounding over the past two months. The improvement in confidence suggest firms have a more optimistic outlook as concerns about global growth prospects ease, while strong conditions are also providing evidence that the economy is more resilient than previously expected.”

        Full release here.

        Australia consumer sentiment dropped back to 78.5, pressures bearing down on consumer becoming intense

          Australia Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell -6.9%mom from 84.3 to 78.5 in February. The reading was already below the trough of 79.0 as seen in the global financial crisis, but above the 75.6 low in April 2020 when the pandemic first hit.

          Westpac noted: “Cost of living pressures and interest rate rises continue to weigh heavily. Hopes of some easing in both have been dashed by the strong December quarter CPI and the RBA’s resumption of its interest rate tightening cycle.”

          Regarding RBA policy, Westpac expects another 25bps hike to 3.60% on March 7, a pause in April, and then a final 35bps hike in May to 3.85%.

          It added, “The consumer sentiment survey continues to give a very clear warning that the pressures bearing down on the consumer are becoming intense. While spending has held up relatively well to date, we expect an abrupt slowdown to show through in coming months.”

          Full release here.

          Fed Bowman: It will be necessary to further tighten monetary policy

            Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said in a speech, “we are still far from achieving price stability, and I expect that it will be necessary to further tighten monetary policy to bring inflation down toward our goal”.

            “My views on the future path of monetary policy will continue to be informed by the incoming data and its implications for the outlook,” she said.

            “I will continue to look for consistent evidence that inflation remains on a downward path when considering further rate increases and at what point we will have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance for the policy rate.”

            Full speech here.

            European commission upgrades 2023 growth forecasts, lowers inflation slightly

              In the Winter interim Forecast, European commission upgraded growth projections for Eurozone in 2023 and downgraded inflation projections.

              “Europe’s economy is proving resilient in the face of current challenges. We were able to narrowly avoid a recession. We are somewhat more optimistic about growth prospects and the projected decline in inflation this year,” said Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President for an Economy that Works for People.

              “We have entered 2023 on a firmer footing than anticipated: the risks of recession and gas shortages have faded and unemployment remains at a record low,” said Paolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economy.

              GDP growth forecasts for:

              • 2023 at 0.9% (upgraded from Autumn’s 0.3%).
              • 2024 at 1.5% (unchanged).

              HICP inflation forecasts for:

              • 2023 at 5.6% (downgraded from 6.1%).
              • 2024 at 2.5% (downgraded from 2.6%).

              Full release here.

              ECB Centeno: For sure, we’re much closer to that terminal rate than before

                ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno told BloombergTV, “for sure, we’re much closer to that terminal rate than before… We’re approaching it and I think March will be a great moment for us to be very clear about it.”

                Meanwhile, for the central bank to slow tightening pace from current 50bps per meeting, Centeno said, “we really need to see inflation converging to 2% in the medium term”.

                He added, the new forecasts in March are “going to tell us exactly where we are in that process”.

                Swiss CPI bounce back to 3.3% yoy in Jan

                  Swiss CPI rose 0.6% mom in January, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Core CPI (excluding fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel) was flat mom. Domestic product prices rose 1.0% mom while imported product prices dropped -0.6% mom.

                  Compared with the same month of the previous year, CPI accelerated from 2.8% yoy to 3.3% yoy, well above expectation of 2.9% yoy. Core CPI rose from 2.0% yoy to 2.2% yoy. Domestic product inflation jumped from 1.9% yoy to 2.6% yoy. Imported product inflation slowed from 5.8% yoy to 5.2% yoy.

                  Full release here.

                  NZ BusinessNZ services rose to 54.5, but negative comments trend higher

                    New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index rose from 52.0 to 54.5 in January. Looking at some details, activity/sales rose form 51.9 to 52.1. Employment rebounded strongly from 46.9 to 51.9. New orders/business dropped from 57.7 to 54.5. Stocks/inventories rose from 51.6 to 54.3. Supplier deliveries dropped from 53.9 to 52.0.

                    BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said: “Despite the halt in lower expansionary levels, the trend of a higher proportion of negative comments continued in January (61.7%), compared with 58.2% in December and 47.3% in November. The holiday season was a common theme, along with the shortage of labour and general market uncertainty that has been evident for some months now”.

                    BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel said that “as encouraging as January’s PSI result might look, we are reluctant to read too much into one month’s result – especially around the holiday period”.

                    Full release here.

                    ECB Visco: Tightening should continue in a progressive but measured way

                      ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said on Saturday, interest rates must continue to rise “in a progressive but measured way, on the basis of the incoming data and their use in the assessment of the inflation outlook”. But when asked how far interest rates could rise, he replied “we don’t know”.

                      Visco also said, “today, disinflation is obviously needed, but given the levels of private and public debts that prevail in the euro area, we must be careful to avoid engineering an unnecessary and excessive rise in real interest rates.”

                      “Indeed, I am convinced that the credibility of our actions is preserved not by flexing our muscles in the face of inflation, but by continually showing wisdom and balance.”

                      ECB Schnabel: Rates must reach a sufficiently restrictive level

                        ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said in Twitter Q&A, “further rate hikes will help bring inflation back to our target, which – given nominal wages – will increase real wages.”

                        “Rates must reach a sufficiently restrictive level … (and) we’ll keep rates high until we see robust evidence that underlying inflation returns to our target,” she added.

                        Canada employment grew 150k in Jan, unemployment rate unchanged at 5%

                          Canada employment grew strongly by 150k, or 0.8% mom, in January, well above expectation of 15k. Full-time work increased 121k.

                          Unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%, matched expectations, just shy of the record-low 4.9% in June and July last year. Participation rate rose 0.3% to 65.7%.

                          Total hours worked rose 0.8% mom, 5.6% yoy. Average hourly wages rose 4.5% yoy.

                          Full release here.

                          Yen up and down on BoJ governor candidate news

                            Yen jumped earlier today on reports that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is going to make a surprised nomination of academic Kazuo Ueda as the next BoJ Governor. Some interpreted that as a signal of a change in BoJ’s course for finally exiting ultra loose monetary policy.

                            However, Yen was then shot down after Ueda told Nippon TV BoJ’ current policy is “appropriate”, noting the need to continue with monetary easing. Ueda also noted, “it’s important to make decisions logically and explain clearly

                            Ueda, a former member of the BOJ’s policy board and an academic at Kyoritsu Women’s University. On the other hand, earlier rumor of appointing Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya was seen as a sign of continuing currency policies.

                            The government is expected to present the nomination on February 13 and there would be hearings at the lower house on February 24.

                            ECB Vujcic: Likely to see more rate action beyond March

                              ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic, Croatian central bank Governor, said, “we are likely to see more rate action beyond March.” But policymakers are going to wait for data to come in, ” then decide in May, June, July what we’re going to do.”

                              While the markets are pricing in a 3.4-3.5% terminal rate, Vujcic said, “It’s the market’s job to try to figure out what the terminal rate is, but it’s not something we have to do at this point in time… I would leave the issue of the terminal rate for later.”

                              Vujcic believed that headline inflation has peaked. He added, “already in November I argued that my worry was not a further increase in inflation, but the persistence.”

                              UK GDP contracted -0.5% mom in Dec, flat in Q4

                                UK GDP contracted notably by -0.5% mom in December, even worse than expectation of -0.3% mom. Services declined by -0.8% mom. Production rose 0.3% mom. Construction was flat for the month.

                                In Q4, GDP showed 0.0% qoq growth, matched expectations. Services sector was flat on the quarter. Production dropped -0.2% qoq while construction grew 0.3% qoq.

                                For 2022 as a whole, GDP grew 4.0%, following a 7.6% expansion in 2021.

                                Full release here.

                                Also released, industrial production came in at 0.3% mom -4.0% yoy in December, versus expectation of -0.2% mom, -5.3% yoy. Manufacturing was at 0.0% mom, -5.7% yoy, versus expectation of -0.2% mom, -6.1% yoy. Goods trade deficit widened from GBP -14.7B to GBP -19.3B, above expectation of GBP -17.2B.

                                RBA SoMP: No GDP contraction, trimmed mean inflation to stay higher and longer

                                  In the Statement on Monetary Policy, RBA reiterated that “further increases in interest rates will be needed to ensure that the current period of high inflation is only temporary.”

                                  “In assessing how much further interest rates need to increase, the Board will be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.”

                                  The economy is not forecast to contract within the projection horizon. Meanwhile, trimmed mean inflation is projected to stay higher and longer till mid 2024.

                                  Year-average GDP growth forecast to be (from 3.75% in 2022):

                                  • 2.25% in 2023 (unchanged from prior forecast).
                                  • 1.50% in 2024 (unchanged).
                                  • 1.75% in 2024/25 year (new).

                                  Headline CPI (7.8% in December 2022) is projected to slow to:

                                  • 6.75% in June 2023 (unchanged).
                                  • 4.75% in December 2023 (unchanged).
                                  • 3.50% in June 2024 (down from 4.25%).
                                  • 3.25% in December 2024 (unchanged).
                                  • 3.00% in June 2025 (new).

                                  Trimmed mean CPI (6.9% in December 22) is projected to slow to:

                                  • 6.25% in June 2023 (up from 5.50%).
                                  • 4.25% in December 2024 (up from 3.75%).
                                  • 3.25% in June 2024 (down from 3.50%).
                                  • 3.00% in December 2024 (down from 3.25%).
                                  • 3.00% in June 2025 (new).

                                  Full SoMP here.

                                  Japan FM Suzuki will discuss joint statement with BoJ with new governor

                                    Japan Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that the goals as mentioned in the joint statement with BoJ signed back in 2013 “remains important policy challenges”. He mentioned that targets like “the need to pull Japan out of deflation and achieve stable economic growth.”

                                    But he also mentioned the possibility of revising the join statement with new BoJ Governor. “What to do with the statement is something the government must discuss with the new governor,” Suzuki told parliament. Nevertheless, it’s premature to decide whether it’s necessary for the revision as the government has yet to nominate the new BoJ head.

                                    Separately, Tsuyoshi Takagi, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s parliament affairs chief for the lower house, said that the government will present its nomination for the new BoJ Governor and the two deputies on February 13. Jun Azumi, an executive of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan said hearings would be held at the lower house on February 24.

                                    Japan PPI slowed to 9.5% yoy in Jan, CGPI staying at record high

                                      Japan PPI slowed from 10.5% yoy to 9.5% yoy in January, below expectation of 11.2% yoy. Sitting at 119.8 and unchanged from prior month, corporate goods price index matched the record high made in December.

                                      On Yen basis, export price index slowed further to 9.0% yoy, comparing to the peak of 20.1% yoy made in September. Import price index also slowed to 17.8% yoy, comparing to the peak of 49.2% made in July. For the month, export price index declined for the third month, by -1.9% mom. Import price index dropped for the fourth month, by -3.9% mom.

                                      Full release here.

                                      Fed Barkin: Is inflation calming? That’s really the core question for this year

                                        Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said in a podcast that “while the average (inflation) has dropped, the median has still stayed high”.

                                        “That’s because the average has been distorted by falling prices for a few goods, like used cars, that escalated unsustainably during the pandemic,” he said.

                                        “We have seen three good months on the inflation prints. I’d like to see them continue. Is inflation calming? That’s really the core question for this year,” he said.

                                        “I think underneath that, I want to understand the labor market. Is it cooling? What’s happening to wages? What’s happened to employment?” he added. “Underneath that, I want to understand what’s happening to the broader demand, particular for companies who may or may not be thinking about increasing prices.

                                        Full podcast here.

                                        US initial jobless claims rose to 196k

                                          US initial jobless claims rose 13k to 196k in the week ending February 4. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -2.5k to 189k.

                                          Continuing claims rose 38k to 1688k in the week ending January 28. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 14.5k to 1665k.

                                          Full release here.