Canada employment rose 290k in May, unemployment rate rose to record 13.7%

    Canada employment grew 290k in May, well above expectation of -500k loss. That also represented a recovery 10.6% of the coronavirus related employment losses. Unemployment rate, however, rose to 13.7%, up from 13.0%, but better than expectation of 15.0%. That was the highest level on record too. Participation rate rose 1.6% to 61.4%, but stayed well below pre-coronavirus level of 65.5%.

    Full release here.

    China Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8, but business confidence remained subdued

      China Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 51.8 in November, up from 51.7 and beat expectation of 51.4. Markit noted there were solid increases in output and new business. Employment was broadly stable while inflationary pressures remained weak.

      Commenting on the China General Manufacturing PMI™ data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said:

      “China’s manufacturing sector continued to recover in November, with both domestic and overseas demand rising and the employment subindex returning to expansionary territory for the second time this year.

      “However, business confidence remained subdued, as concerns about policies and market conditions persisted, and their willingness to replenish stocks remained limited. This is a major constraint on economic recovery, which requires continuous policy support. Currently, manufacturing investment may be lingering near a recent bottom. A low inventory level has lasted for a long time. If trade negotiations between China and the U.S. can progress in the next phase and business confidence can be repaired effectively, manufacturing production and investment is likely to see a solid improvement.”

      Full release here.

      Released over the weekend, the official PMI Manufacturing rose to 50.2 in November, up from 49.3 and beat expectation of 49.5. PMI Non-Manufacturing rose to 54.4, up from 52.8 and beat expectation of 53.1.

       

      China’s CPI improved to -0.3%, deflation persists for the 3rd month

        China’s CPI reflected a modest improvement in December, rising from -0.5% yoy to -0.3% yoy, slightly better than the expected -0.4% yoy. Despite this improvement, December marks the third consecutive month of negative CPI readings, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the Chinese economy. The month-on-month CPI also saw a shift, registering 0.1% increase compared to the -0.5% decline in November. Core CPI, which excludes the typically volatile food and energy prices, remained steady at 0.6% yoy, mirroring November’s figure.

        NBS noted that pork prices continued to be a significant factor influencing the year-on-year CPI, with a decrease of -26.1% yoy , but narrowd from November’s -31.8% yoy decline. Services inflation demonstrated a steady rise, with notable increases in tourism and hotel accommodation prices, which surged by 6.8% yoy, and 5.5% yoy, respectively.

        PPI also improved from -3.0% yoy to -2.7% yoy, but fell short of the anticipated -2.5%. This marks the 15th consecutive month of decline in the PPI. NBS attributed this continued decline in PPI to several factors, including drop in international oil prices and lack of demand for certain industrial products.

        BoJ Kuroda: Near term focus is to smoothen corporate financing and stabilize markets

          In the semi-annual testimony to parliament, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned that “Japan’s economy is in an increasingly severe state”. Outlook will “remain severe for the time being.” He pledged to “do whatever we can as a central bank, working closely with the government.”

          For the near term, focus of monetary policy is to “smoothen corporate financing and stabilize markets”. Though, there is no huge risk of sharp credit contraction as domestic financial institutions have sufficient capital buffers.

          As for the steps to ease monetary further, he said, “we’re ready to take sufficient steps judged necessary at the time”. The measures could include expanding asset purchases, increasing market operations tools or cutting interest rates further.

          Bitcoin quickly approaching 41k strong support zone with another Musk prompted selloff

            Bitcoin is in another steep selloff after Tesla CEO Elon Musk implied that the company might sell its holdings. A self claimed “crypto analyst” @CryptoWhale tweeted, “Bitcoiners are going to slap themselves next quarter when they find out Tesla dumped the rest of their #Bitcoin holdings. With the amount of hate @elonmusk is getting, I wouldn’t blame him…”. Musk replied “indeed”.

            Bitcoin has now taken out 47112 support to resume the correction from 64828. It’s now on track to 38.2% retracement of 4000 to 64828 at 41591, which is close to the top of prior range of 28989/41964. We’re expecting strong support from this 41591/41964 zone to contain downside and bring rebound, at least for the first attempt.

            Break of 51511 resistance is needed to be the first sign that such correction from 64828 has completed. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of rebound. Firm break of 41951/41964 will set up another crash to 61.8% retracement at 27236, which is in proximity to the lower end of the above mentioned rate at 28989.

            Gold breaks key resistance as up trend resumes finally

              Gold finally resumes recent up trend by breaking through 1346.71 resistance decisively and reaches as high as 1358.16 so far. Further rise should now be seen to 61.8% projection of 1160.17 to 1346.71 from 1266.26 at 1381.54 next. And in any case, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1319.95 support holds, in case of retreat.

              More importantly, upside re-acceleration is seen in weekly MACD after drawing support from 55 week EMA. The development is rather medium term bullish. Rise from 1160.17 could indeed be resuming whole rise from 1046.37 (2015 low) as consolidation from 1375.17 completed with three waves to 1160.17. That is, we’d likely see decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1920.70 (2011 high) to 1046.37 (2015 low) at 1380.36 finally. In that case, further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1586.70 in medium to long term.

              Ifo slashed German 2019 growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.1%, auto weakness to continue

                Ifo slashed German economy growth forecast in the Winter report released today. 2018 growth forecast is revised down from 1.9% to 1.5%. 2019 growth forecast is revised down from 1.9% to 1.1%. For 2020, growth forecast is revised down from 1.7 to 1.6%. Ifo warned that “the weakness triggered by the automotive industry will continue until 2019. A wide range of uncertainties are also curbing the global economy, and especially Brexit, Italy and US trade policy to name but a few.”

                In the report, Ifo said downside risks for global economy “grew markedly” compared to autumn. US has imposed customs duties on a “large number of imports”, followed by retaliation from China and the EU. And “it is impossible to predict the direction that the trade dispute will take”. In case of escalation, Ifo warned “global trade in goods and overall economic production can be expected to suffer a major setback.”

                Also, trade dispute will lead to faster rise in inflation. And if advanced economies central banks opt for “far more restrictive measures”, this may prompt a “return to capital outflows from emerging markets.” Hard Brexit “represents another risk for the economy both in Britain and in the euro area.” Besides, high risk premium on Italian government bonds also
                pose a threat to economic development in the Eurozone.

                Full release here.

                Fed Bullard: monetary policy needs to be more nimble in new regime

                  St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told Reuters that current inflation, which is well over Fed’s target, is at levels which former chairs like Alan Greenspan would have “immediately tried to quash.” He called for swift action on ending the asset purchase program. “We are not being that preemptive. Our models say this will settle down, but in the meantime it will be pretty volatile,” he said, “what I want to be prepared for and get the committee prepared for is the risk that this is an unpredictable situation.”

                  Bullard also said a new “regime” may have arrived and “monetary policy needs to be more nimble.” The global equilibrium was upset by the pandemic, and “the reverberations will continue, and you will have a lot more volatility than you are used to.”

                  “We will have long, lingering effects as the rest of the world recovers. You have shortages and bottlenecks everywhere. You have Europe likely to grow more quickly in coming quarters,” Bullard said. “You have industries still adjusting to the post-pandemic world – many things happening, and at a pace we are not used to.”

                  Into US session: USD, CAD, EUR on the weak side as FX ranges. Singapore STI quite bearish

                    The forex markets are rather steady today, with most major pairs bounded in yesterday’s range. US Dollar, Canadian Dollar and Euro are on the weaker side. On the other hand, Swiss Franc and Yen are the stronger ones, followed by Sterling. Economic data took a back seat again this week overall. Today’s ISM services and ADP employment are unlikely to trigger persistent moves in the markets, given there will be non-farm payroll tomorrow. There are some central banker speaks scheduled ahead, including Fed Williams, SNB Zurbrugg and BoC Wilkins, and they may catch some attention.

                    Elsewhere, major European stocks somewhat stabilized from yesterday’s steep selloff. FTSE is down -0.17% at the time of writing. DAX and CAC are up 0.12% and 0.26% respectively. Asian markets continued to be the bigger suffering in current concerns over emerging market crisis. Nikkei was down -0.41%, Hong Kong HSI was down -0.99%. China Shanghai SSE was down -0.47% at 2691.59, below 2700 handle. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.27%. Gold rides on Dollar’s weakness and is back at 1205. Focus is on 1209 minor resistance for indicating resumption of rise fro 1160.36.

                    We hailed Singapore Strait Times as rather resilient a few weeks ago. But after our “blessing” the index turned south and never looked back. The technical development is rather bearish. STI was rejected both by 55 week and 55 day EMA. The index should now be correcting whole up trend from 2528.43 (2016 low) to 3641.64 (2018 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% projection of 3641.64 to 3176.26 from 3347.98 at 3060.37. There is project of hitting 61.8% retracement of 2528.43 to 3641.64 before completing the correction.

                    BoJ stands pat as widely expected

                      BoJ left monetary policy unchanged today as widely expected. Under the yield curve control framework, short term policy rate is held at -0.1%. BoJ will also continue target to keep 10 year JGB yield at around 0%. Annual pace of JGB purchase is kept at around JPY 80T. Goushi Kataoka dissented again in a 8-1 vote. Kataoka pushed to “further strengthen monetary easing” so that “yields on JGBs with maturities of 10 years and longer would broadly be lowered further.”

                      The description on the economy is largely unchanged. One exception is that CPI is now “in the range of 0.5-1.0%”, comparing to April’s description of moving around 1 percent. On the outlook, BoJ noted that the economy is “likely to continue its moderate expansion.” Domestic demand will follow an uptrend while exports will continue the moderate increasing trend. Risks to the outlook include the following: the U.S. economic policies and their impact on global financial markets; developments in emerging and commodity-exporting economies; negotiations on the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union (EU) and their effects; and geopolitical risks.

                      Full statement here.

                      EU von der Leyen: Well prepared for a no-deal Brexit scenario

                        European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said there were “genuine progress” in post-Brexit negotiations with the UK. She emphasized that “the next days are going to be decisive,” on whether a deal could be clinched.

                        “With very little time ahead of us, we will do all in our power to reach an agreement. We are ready to be creative. But we are not ready to put into question the integrity of our single market,” she added.

                        “We need to establish robust mechanisms, ensuring that competition is – and remains – free and fair over time. In the discussions about state aid, we still have serious issues, for instance when it comes to enforcement,” said von der Leyen.

                        She also reiterated, “the European Union is well prepared for a no-deal-scenario, but of course we prefer to have an agreement.”

                        Fed’s Bostic indicates bias towards further hikes, no cut until well into 2024

                          In an interview with CNBC, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized the importance of combating inflation, which he deems as “job No. 1”. He expressed his readiness to bear the cost necessary to achieve the Fed’s target, underscoring the need for a more aggressive stance on rate hikes given the current economic scenario.

                          Bostic stated, “What we’ve seen is that inflation has been persistently high, consumers have been really resilient in terms of their spending, and labor markets remain extremely tight. All of those suggests that there’s still going to be upward pressure on prices.” His comments highlight the ongoing pressures that may trigger further inflationary spikes.

                          He showcased leaning towards a proactive approach in dealing with inflation, stating, “If there’s going to be a bias to action, for me it would be a bias to increase a little further as opposed to cut.”

                          Bostic remained confident in Fed’s policy measures, asserting, “There’s still a lot of confidence that our policies are going to be able to get inflation back down to our 2% target.” He made clear Fed’s determination to ensure this target is met, even if it means holding off on rate cuts until well into 2024.

                           

                          Sterling recovers further on prospect of a second referendum on the Brexit deal

                            Sterling is given a lift as UK Prime Minister Theresa May outlines her “new” plan regarding Brexit. One key element is that her Brexit bill will include a requirement to hold a vote on whether or not to have a second referendum on the deal. That is, if MPs want a second referendum, they must vote for the bill. The prospect of a second referendum is apparently the thing that shoots the Pound higher.

                            Here is a summary of May’s 10-point plan:

                            “So our New Brexit Deal makes a ten-point offer to everyone in Parliament who wants to deliver the result of the referendum.

                            1. The government will seek to conclude alternative arrangements to replace the backstop by December 2020, so that it never needs to be used.
                            2. A commitment that, should the backstop come into force, the government will ensure that Great Britain will stay aligned with Northern Ireland.
                            3. The negotiating objectives and final treaties for our future relationship with the EU will have to be approved by MPs.
                            4. A new workers’ rights bill that guarantees workers’ rights will be no less favourable than in the EU.
                            5. There will be no change in the level of environmental protection when we leave the EU.
                            6. The UK will seek as close to frictionless trade in goods with the EU as possible while outside the single market and ending free movement.
                            7. We will keep up to date with EU rules for goods and agri-food products that are relevant to checks at border protecting the thousands of jobs that depend on just-in-time supply chains.
                            8. The government will bring forward a customs compromise for MPs to decide on to break the deadlock.
                            9. There will be a vote for MPs on whether the deal should be subject to a referendum.
                            10. There will be a legal duty to secure changes to the political declaration to reflect this new deal.

                            Al of these commitments will be guaranteed in law – so they will endure at least for this parliament.”

                            ECB Makhlouf: There is uncertainty about exactly what ‘close to, but below’ means

                              ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said that “we central banks need to do a better job at communicating and explaining”. He criticized “there continues to be uncertainty about exactly what ‘close to, but below’ means” regarding ECB’s price stability definition of “below but close to 2%”.

                              Makhlouf added, “it has been argued that since central banks are unlikely to hit a point target on a regular basis, having one makes it harder to explain policy to the public and that a range, with or without a focal point, may be more realistic and therefore provide the central bank with more credibility.”

                              France PMI manufacturing finalized at 59.4, a key challenge to keep up with workloads

                                France PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 59.4 in May, up from April’s 58.0. That’s was also the highest level since September 2000. Both output and new orders rose at sharpest rates since January 2018. Accumulation of backlogs was steepest since November 2006. Rise in selling prices was near-record amid further acceleration of cost inflation.

                                Andrew Harker, Economics Director at IHS Markit, said: “Demand and production volumes continued to ramp up in the French manufacturing sector during May, with the loosening of lockdown restrictions playing a key part in this last month.

                                “The key challenge now for firms is being able to keep up with workloads. This is proving to be a struggle amid severe supply-chain delays and a lack of material availability. As a result, levels of backlogged work are rising sharply. We are therefore likely to see further expansions to production in the months ahead should some of these constraints start to ease, with hopefully more jobs created to help deal with backlogs.

                                “Inflationary pressures showed little sign of abating. On the contrary, input costs increased at the fastest pace for a decade, with output price inflation the second-fastest on record.”Commenting on the latest survey results, Andrew Harker, Economics Director at IHS Markit, said: “Demand and production volumes continued to ramp up in the French manufacturing sector during May, with the loosening of lockdown restrictions playing a key part in this last month.

                                “The key challenge now for firms is being able to keep up with workloads. This is proving to be a struggle amid severe supply-chain delays and a lack of material availability. As a result, levels of backlogged work are rising sharply. We are therefore likely to see further expansions to production in the months ahead should some of these constraints start to ease, with hopefully more jobs created to help deal with backlogs. “Inflationary pressures showed little sign of abating. On the contrary, input costs increased at the fastest pace for a decade, with output price inflation the second-fastest on record.”

                                Full release here.

                                US consumer confidence rose to 129.2, beat expectation of 126.5

                                  Conference Board US Consumer Confidence rose to 129.2 in April, up from 124.2 and beat expectation of 126.5. Present Situation Index rose from 163.0 to 168.3. Expectations Index rose from 98.3 to 103.0. Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board said while consumer confidence “partially rebounded”, it still “remains below levels seen last fall”. But overall, “consumers expect the economy to continue growing at a solid pace into the summer months”.

                                  Also released from US:

                                  AUD/USD to draw strong support from 0.7 on next fall

                                    Australian Dollar remains broadly pressured today. New South Wales reported another 644 new coronavirus infections and 4 deaths. Greater Sydney’s lockdown will be extended until the end of September. That is, the lockdown, which has already lasted for 8 weeks, will run for at least 13 weeks. Also, a curfew will be introduced for 12 local government areas of Sydney, as people there must stay stop between 9pm and 5am.

                                    While more downside is still in favor in AUD/USD for the immediate future, we’d start to looking for bottoming sign on next move. Oversold condition in daily MACD could start to slow the decline. 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 will be met. Additionally, AUD/USD should then enter a strong support zone around 0.7 psychological level, 0.6991 support, and 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051. Let’s see if AUD/USD would at least turn into sideway trading.

                                    Fed Daly: Patient until data suggests we go one way or another

                                      San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said yesterday that “patience is where I’m at right now,” regarding monetary policy. She added the US economy is in “a good place”. And interest rates should be left unchanged “until the data suggests we go one way or another way.”

                                      Though, she predicts that unemployment rate at 3.8% will eventually push wages and prices upward. And “it’s just taking a longer time than it typically does”. She noted “that’s part of what feeds into my patient strategy.”

                                      Daly supported Decembers rate hike when the economy was growing at a faster rate. Now, she noted interest rates are at “neutral” and thus, patience is “the way to go, because you don’t want to guess that you need to do more, or guess that we need to do less, you just want to be patient and look at the data.”

                                      UK 3-month GDP grew 0.6% in July, highest in nearly a year, but production drags

                                        UK GDP grew 0.3% mom in July, above expectation of 0.2% mom.

                                        For the three months to July, GDP grew 0.6%, met expectations.

                                        The three month growth rate was the highest since August 2017.

                                        Growth was driven by services (0.45%) and construction (0.20%), with small drag from production (-0.07%).

                                        Also from UK, visible trade deficit narrowed slightly to GBP -10.0B in July. Industrial production dropped -0.2% mom, rose 0.9% yoy versus expectation of 0.4% mom, 1.0% yoy. Manufacturing production rose 0.1% mom, 1.1% yoy versus expectation of 0.3% mom, 1.5% yoy. construction output rose 0.5% mom in July versus expectation of -0.4% mom fall.

                                         

                                        ECB Schnabel: Time plan to end PEPP in March still valid

                                          ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said in an interview, rising COVID-19 infections and containment measures is “likely to have a moderating effect on activity in the short run”, and it will not derail the overall recovery. Supply-side disruptions “do not diminish growth potential” but “merely shift activity over time”. Hence, her baseline is that “some growth deceleration in the short run, but then a continued strong recovery in the medium term.”

                                          Schnabel expected ECB staff’s inflation projections to be “revised upwards for next year”. But inflation is “going to decline over the course of next year”. “It’s plausible to assume that inflation is going to drop below our target of 2% in the medium term,” she said. “however, the risks to inflation are skewed to the upside.”

                                          She also noted the “time plan is still valid” for ending the PEPP purchases in March. “But we will have to see how this evolves until our December meeting.” She added, ” it has become clear that it’s very unlikely that a rate hike is going to happen next year. But it’s also clear that the uncertainty remains very high and this is reflected in markets.”

                                          Full interview here.