Entering into US session, Euro is trading as the weakest one for today, followed by Sterling. Yen is the strongest one, followed by Dollar. Euro is clearly troubled by surging Italian yield again, as 10 year yield breached 3.7 level and is now up 0.1091 at 3.676. German 10 year bund yield is also up 0.008 at 0.542. But German-Italian spread widens to over 3.1 now.
Additionally, the common currency is weighed down by IMF’s deep downgrade of 2018 Germany growth forecasts, from 2.5% to 1.9%. It’s reflected in European stocks indices too. German DAX is now down -1.14%, CAC down -0.74% and FTSE down -1.13%. Earlier today, Nikkei closed down -1.32%, Singapore Strait Times down -0.47%. Hong Kong HSI just lost -0.11%. China Shanghai SSE indeed closed up 0.17%.
Looking ahead, economic calendar is very light in US session today. Any Brexit news will drive volatility in Sterling for sure. But the main focus is whether, or how far, US yield would extends recent rally.
UK GDP shrank record -20.4% in Apr, virtually all areas hit
UK GDP contracted -20.4% mom in April, even worse than expectation of -18.7% mom. That’s the worst level on record. Index of services dropped -19.0% mom. Index of production dropped -20.3% mom. Manufacturing dropped -24.3% mom. Construction dropped -40.1% mom. Agriculture dropped -5.5% mom.
In the rolling three months to April, GDP dropped -10.4%. Index of services dropped -0.90%. Index of production dropped -0.5%. Manufacturing dropped -10.5%. Construction dropped -18.2%. Agriculture dropped -2.1%.
Jonathan Athow, Deputy National Statistician for Economic Statistics, said: “April’s fall in GDP is the biggest the UK has ever seen, more than three times larger than last month and almost ten times larger than the steepest pre-covid-19 fall. In April the economy was around 25% smaller than in February. Virtually all areas of the economy were hit, with pubs, education, health and car sales all giving the biggest contributions to this historic fall. Manufacturing and construction also saw significant falls, with manufacture of cars and housebuilding particularly badly affected. The UK’s trade with the rest of the world was also badly affected by the pandemic, with large falls in both the import and export of cars, fuels, works of art and clothing.”
Also from UK, industrial production dropped -20.3% mom, -24.4% yoy in April. Manufacturing production dropped -24.3% mom, -28.5% yoy. Goods trade deficit narrowed to GBP -7.5B in April.