Eurozone PPI rose 2.9% mom, 26.2% yoy in Dec

    Eurozone PPI rose 2.9% mom, 26.2% yoy in December, slightly below expectation of 3.0% mom, 26.6% yoy. For the month, industrial producer prices increased by 7.0% mom in the energy sector, by 0.7% mom for intermediate goods, by 0.6% mom for non-durable consumer goods, by 0.3% mom for capital goods and by 0.2% mom for durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.5% mom.

    EU PPI rose 2.9% mom, 26.2% yoy. The highest monthly increases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Ireland (+13.3%), Estonia (+12.7%) and Greece (+8.0%), while the only decrease was observed in Czechia (-0.1%).

    Full release here.

    UK PMI services finalized at 54.1, goods news about 2022 prospect

      UK PMI Services was finalized at 54.1 in January, up from December’s 10-month low of 53.6. PMI Composite was finalized at 54.2, up from prior month’s 53.6. Markit said charges had fastest rise on record in more than 25 years. Output and new business picked up at the start of 2022. Growth projections were strongest since May 2021.

      Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit: “The latest PMI data provide good news about prospects for the UK economy in 2022 as demand has started to recover from the impact of Omicron restrictions and most businesses expect only a temporary slowdown from cancelled bookings and staff absences at the turn of the year. Growth expectations for the next 12 months picked up in January and are now the highest since last spring, with staff recruitment difficulties often the only major source of anxiety.

      “However, record price increases in the service economy are set to add to the cost of living crisis for UK households. Input cost inflation accelerated again in January and service providers responded by increasing their prices charged at the fastest rate since the index began in July 1996. Nearly one-in-three survey respondents reported higher average prices charged than in December, with rising salary payments, energy bills and logistics costs the most commonly cited reasons.”

      Full release here.

      Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 52.3, economy slowed further

        Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 51.1 in January, down from December’s 53.1. PMI Composite was finalized at 52.3, down from prior month’s 53.3. Looking at some member states, Ireland PMI Composite was unchanged at 56.5, Germany dropped to 4-month low at 53.8, France dropped to 9-month low at 52.7, Italy dropped to 12-month low at 50.1, and Spain dropped to 11-month low at 47.9.

        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

        “The eurozone economy has slowed further in January after seeing growth weaken in the final quarter of 2021…. Spain has been the hardest hit, falling back into contraction, while Italy has seen business activity stall, in both cases linked to declining service sector output. France is meanwhile recording the weakest expansion since last April. Germany is bucking the slowdown trend, however, providing a welcome ray of light to suggest that the impact of Omicron will be both shorter and less severe than prior virus waves….

        “A key concern is that inflationary pressures continue to build, with soaring energy prices likely to add further to upward price pressures in coming months. Households are already being squeezed and firms face further cost rises. Tensions in Ukraine also pose a further downside risk to the outlook, with any escalation of the situation likely to further dampen business confidence.”

        Full release here.

        BoE and ECB previews, a look at EUR/GBP

          Two central banks will announce monetary policy decisions today. BoE is generally expected to deliver a back-to-back rate hike and raise Bank Rate by 25bps to 0.50%. The central bank would also reveal the approach to wind down the GBP 895B asset purchases. Looking ahead, more tightening is expected ahead to bring the Bank Rate to 1.00% level by the end of the year. That should be reflected in the new economic projections in the Monetary Policy Summary.

          On the other hand, ECB is expected to stand pat and maintain a cautious tone even though inflation surged to another record in January. Markets are seeing the first rate hike, at 10bps, by July. But President Christine Lagarde would likely talk down such expectations.

          Here are some previews on ECB and BoE:

          EUR/GBP is a pair to watch today. It should be noted that it’s now very close to a key long term support level at 0.8276, with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. The conditions are there for a trend reversal. Break of 0.8421 resistance will complete a small double bottom pattern (0.8304, 0.8304), and bring stronger rebound. Further break of 0.8598 resistance should confirm medium term bottoming and turn outlook bullish.

          However, sustained break of 0.8276 would argue that fall from 0.9499 is developing into a long term down trend rather than a correction. Deeper decline would then be seen for the rest of the year towards 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9499 at 0.7917, and possibly below.

          EUR/GBP is now at a juncture.

          Australia NAB business confidence rose to 18 in Q4

            Australia NAB business confidence jumped from -2 to 18 in Q4. Current business conditions was unchanged at 12. Conditions for the next 3 months rose from 8 to 30. Conditions for the next 12 months also rose from 26 to 34. Capex plans rose from 26 to 34.

            “The economy was showing considerable strength prior to the spread of the Omicron variant, and that translated into a positive outlook for the coming months,”Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist. “We now know that Omicron has dampened that recovery somewhat but, fundamentally, we expect that positive trajectory to continue when the current virus outbreak recedes.”

            Full release here.

            BoJ Wakatabe: Definitely too early to start tightening

              BoJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe said in a speech, “given the current situation where Japan’s economy has finally started to pick up from the pandemic, it is definitely too early for the Bank to start tightening monetary policy when the target has not yet been achieved as this could hinder the economic recovery.”

              He reiterated the current policy as to continue with QQE with yield curve control, “as long as it is necessary” to maintain 2% inflation target in a “stable manner”. That is, CPI should remain at 2% while medium- to long-term inflation expectations are “anchored”.

              Full speech here.

              BoC Macklem: It will be a series of increases, not a single increase

                BoC Governor Tiff Macklem told the Senate banking committee yesterday that inflation could stay “uncomfortably high” around 5% over the first half of 2022, and then “coming down fairly quickly in the second half.”

                However, “there is some uncertainty about how quickly inflation will come down because we’ve never experienced a pandemic like this before.”

                “It’s clear that interest rates need to be on a rising path,” Macklem said. “The slope of that path is going to depend on economic developments, and if consumers spend more, the slope of that path, likely, has to be steeper.”

                “It will be a series of increases, not a single increase,” he said.

                US oil inventories dropped -1.0m barrels, WTI rejected by 90

                  US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -1.0m barrels in the week ending January 28, versus expectation of 1.8m rise. At 415.1m barrels, oil inventories are about -9% below the five year average for this time of year.

                  Gasoline inventories rose 2.1m barrels. Distillate dropped -2.4m barrels. Propane/propylene dropped -4.3m barrels. Total commercial petroleum inventories dropped -5.8m barrels.

                  Earlier today, OPEC+ decided to raise production by another 400k barrels a day in March, continuing with the monthly plan agreed back in last July.

                  WTI crude oil hit 90.10 earlier today but failed to sustain above 90 handle and retreated. For now, further rise will remain in favor as long as 86.75 support holds, which is close to 4 hour 55 EMA. Current rally could still target 61.8% projection of 66.46 to 87.70 from 62.42 at 95.54 before topping.

                  However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 86.75 support will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 82.42 support, and possibly below.

                  US ADP employment dropped -301k in Jan due to Omicron

                    US ADP private employment dropped -301k in January, much worse than expectation of 270k growth. By company size, small businesses lost -144k jobs, medium business lost -59k, large business lost -98k. By sector, goods-producing jobs dropped -27k, services-providing jobs dropped -274k.

                    “The labor market recovery took a step back at the start of 2022 due to the effect of the Omicron variant and its significant, though likely temporary, impact to job growth,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “The majority of industry sectors experienced job loss, marking the most recent decline since December 2020. Leisure and hospitality saw the largest setback after substantial gains in fourth quarter 2021, while small businesses were hit hardest by losses, erasing most of the job gains made in December 2021.”

                    Full release here.

                    Eurozone CPI accelerated to new record 5.1% yoy in Jan

                      Eurozone CPI accelerated to 5.1% yoy in January, up from December 5.0% yoy, well above expectation of slowing to 4.3% yoy. That’s also another record high. CPI core dropped from 2.6% yoy to 2.3% yoy, but still beat expectation of 1.9% yoy.

                      Energy is expected to have the highest annual rate (28.6%, compared with 25.9% in December), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (3.6%, compared with 3.2% in December), services (2.4%, stable compared with December) and non-energy industrial goods (2.3%, compared with 2.9% in December).

                      Full release here.

                      Kuroda: BoJ easing not leading to regional banks’ deteriorating health

                        BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, “Japan’s economy expanding moderately thanks in part to BoJ’s aggressive monetary easing.”

                        He admitted that the low interest rate environment has had an “impact on regional lenders through various channels.” Yet, he rejected that the easy monetary policy has led to regional banks’ deteriorating health.

                        New Zealand employment dropped to record low 3.2%

                          New Zealand employment rose 0.1% in Q4, below expectation of 0.4%. Unemployment rate ticked down from 3.3% to 3.2%, slightly better than expectation of 3.2%. Labor force participation rate dropped -0.1% to 71.1%.

                          “The labour market continued to show the tightness we saw in the September 2021 quarter, with both unemployment and underutilisation rates remaining low,” work and wellbeing statistics senior manager Becky Collett said. “This quarter’s unemployment rate is now the lowest rate recorded since the HLFS series began in 1986.”

                          Full release here.

                          RBA Lowe: Ending bond purchase does not mean imminent rate hike

                            In a speech, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said ending the bond purchase program “does not mean that an increase in the cash rate is imminent”.

                            He noted that while inflation has picked up in Australia, it remains “substantially lower” than the 7% in the US, 5.4% in the UK and 5.9% in New Zealand. It has “not been accompanied by strong wages growth” as in the case in the US and UK. “Our lower rate of inflation and low wages growth are key reasons we don’t need to move in lock step with others,” he added.

                            Lowe also said it’s “too early to conclude” that inflation is sustainably the in the target range. And there is “a range of significant uncertainties” here that will “take time to resolve”. He reiterated that “the Board is prepared to be patient as it monitors the evolution of the various factors affecting inflation in Australia.”

                            Full release here.

                            Fed Bullard favors successive rate hike at upcoming meetings

                              St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he’d favor successive rate hikes at the upcoming March, May and June meetings, rather than a 50bps hike in March. “The point of this is to get better positioned right now and in coming months, and then we will be able to assess, at that point, whether we need to do more or not,” he said.

                              “We are going to be have to be more nimble, faster, better at reacting to inflation data and other developments as we go through this year,” Bullard said. “It’s going to be a more data-dependent environment.”

                              Bullard added he’d like to start the balance sheet runnoff in Q2, and “that the runoff can be faster than it was last time around.” “We are cognizant of the inflation issue, we’re moving on the policy rate, but we’re also going to move on the balance sheet so we’re not that far from reaching neutral if you are willing to consider both of those,” he said

                              US ISM manufacturing dipped to 57.6, corresponds to 3.1% annualized GDP growth

                                US ISM Manufacturing index dropped -1.2 pts to 57.6 in January, slightly better than expectatio nof 57.5. New orders dropped -3.1 to 57.9. Production dropped -1.6 to 57.8. Employment rose 0.6 to 54.5. Prices rose 7.9 to 76.1.

                                ISM said: “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI® for January (57.6 percent) corresponds to a 3.1-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                                Full release here.

                                Fed Harker a little less convinced of a 50bps hike

                                  Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he would be “supportive of a 25 basis point increase in March.” But he’s “a little less convinced of” a 50 bps hike right now. He added, “if inflation stays where it is now, and continues to start to come down, I don’t see a 50 basis point increase.”

                                  “Right now, I think four 25 basis point increases this year is appropriate,” Harker said. “But there’s a lot of risk here,” including the risk that inflation is worse than expected, or that it eases faster than Fed officials expect.

                                  Canada GDP grew 0.6% mom in Nov, 0.2% above pre-pandemic level

                                    Canada GDP grew 0.6% mom in November, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Increases across almost all sectors contributed to the sixth consecutive monthly expansion. Real GDP was 0.2% above its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Services-producing industries grew 0.6% mom while goods-producing industries rose 0.5% mom.

                                    Statistic Canada also said advance information shows GDP was essentially flat in December. For Q4, GDP grew 1.6% qoq, 4.9% yoy.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 7.1% in Dec, EU down to 6.4%

                                      Eurozone unemployment rate dropped from 7.1% to 7.0% in December, better than expectation of 7.1%. EU Unemployment rate dropped from 6.5% to 6.4%.

                                      Eurostat estimates that 13.612m men and women in the EU, of whom 11.481m in the euro area, were unemployed in December. Compared with November, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 210k in the EU and by 185k in the euro area.

                                      Full release here.

                                      UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 57.3 in Jan, a solid start to 2022

                                        UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 57.3 in January, slightly down from December’s 57.9. Markit said production rose at fastest rate in six months. new order growth slowed despite mild uptick in new export businesses. Input cost and output price inflation eased.

                                        Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, said: “UK manufacturing made a solid start to 2022, showing encouraging resilience on the face of the Omicron wave, with growth of output accelerating as companies reported fewer supply delays. Causes for concern remain, however, as new orders growth slowed, exports barely rose, staff absenteeism remained high and manufacturers’ ongoing caution regarding supply chain disruptions led to the beefing up of safety stocks

                                        “There was some positive news on the supply chains front. Although pressure on vendors remains severe, and still sufficient to stymie output growth and cause difficulty in obtaining required inputs, supplier lead times lengthened to the lowest degree since November 2020 to suggest that the current period of abnormal stress has hopefully passed its peak, despite the surge in cases linked to Omicron. This also lessened the upward pressure on prices, with input costs and output charges both rising at less elevated rates in January.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 58.7 in Jan, weathering Omicron better than prior waves

                                          Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 58.7 in January, up from December’s 58.0. Markit said there were faster expansion in output and new orders. Employment growth improved to five-month high. Also, supplier performance had the least marked deterioration for a year.

                                          Looking at some member states, Germany PMI manufacturing improved to 59.8, five month high. But Italy dropped to 11-month low at 58.3. France also dropped to 3-month low at 55.5. Overall readings were still strong with Austria at 61.5, the Netherlands at 60.1, Ireland at 59.4, Greece at 57.9 and Spain at 56.2.

                                          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “Eurozone manufacturers appear to be weathering the Omicron storm better than prior COVID-19 waves so far, with firms reporting the largest production and order book improvements for four months in January. Prospects have also brightened, with a further easing in the number of supply chain delays playing a key role in prompting producers to revise up their expectations for growth in the coming year to the highest since last June…

                                          “Escalating tensions surrounding Ukraine, the energy price crisis and prospect of global central bank policy tightening meanwhile create additional headwinds to the outlook, which suggest that – although the global supply crunch may be easing – demand conditions may be less supportive to manufacturers in coming months.”

                                          Full release here.