In the minutes of December 21 meeting, RBA reiterated that decision about the bond purchases program will be made in February. The criteria to consider include “progress towards the Board’s goals for employment and inflation, the actions of other central banks and the functioning of the Australian bond market.” Information include December CPI, December and January labor market data, and overall impact of Omicron.
Three possible options were also discussed.
- The first option was to reduce the pace of purchases from mid February with an expectation of a likely end point in May 2022. This option is consistent with November forecasts for employment and inflation.
- The second option was to reduce the pace of purchases and review it again in May 2022. This option is stronger if progress was slower than expected.
- The third option was to cease purchases altogether in mid February. In case of better-than-expected progress, the third option would become more appropriate.
Regarding interest rate, “the Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range.” And, “this is likely to take some time and the Board is prepared to be patient.”
AUD/CAD in rebound, but no major bottoming yet
AUD/CAD is a pair worth watching today, after having sluggish response to RBA minutes. But Canada retail sales featured today could trigger some volatility. There is prospect of major bottoming at 0.8969 considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, it’s so far staying above 55 day EMA, which is a positive sign.
However, AUD/CAD will need to firmly take out 0.9335 resistance to indicate completion of the fall from 0.9991 high. Other wise, another fall would remain mildly in favor. On the downside, break of 0.9087 minor support will bring deeper fall to retest 0.8969 low. Break will resume the fall from 0.9991 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8058 to 0.9991 at 0.8796.